RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING SOLUTIONS PIPELINE PLAN

Transcription

1 CALIFORNIA STATEWIDE LIGHTING MARKET TRANSFORMATION PROGRAM RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING SOLUTIONS PIPELINE PLAN Prepared for Southern California Edison by The Cadmus Group, Inc. 1

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgements... 3 Purpose of Residential Lighting Solutions Pipeline Plan... 4 Updates to Pipeline Plans... 4 Residential Lighting Market Sector Overview... 5 California s Lighting Market... 5 Energy Efficient Lighting Trends in the U.S. Residential Market... 5 Market Transformation Process... 8 Push... 8 Trim... 8 Lighting Solution Push: LED Downlight... 8 Description of LED Downlights and Applications... 8 Rationale for pushing Energy and Demand Benefits Non Energy Benefits Overview of Current Efforts Overview of California Programmatic Efforts Non Programmatic Efforts Overview of Major Market Barriers Market Barrier: Product Quality and Performance Market Barrier: Cost Market Barrier: Customer Awareness and Perceptions Summary of Partners and Implementation Actions Lighting Solution Trim: SPecific Compact Fluorescent Lamp Applications Description of CFL and Applications RationalE for Trimming Approaches for Trimming Summary of LMT Program Actions

3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Cadmus Group, Inc. worked with SCE staff to develop this pipeline plan and reviewed multiple sources of information, including reports such as the California Long Term Energy Efficiency Strategic Plan 1 and other documents characterizing the residential lighting market and its needs. We also relied on input from several SCE, PG&E, and SDG&E Lighting Market Transformation (LMT) program managers, lighting policy experts, lighting designers, lighting manufacturers, and lighting procurement professionals. We thank the following individuals for their time and valuable input. Name Role Organization Purpose of Interview Vireak Ly LMT Program Manger SCE LMT Activities and Pipeline Plans Marissa Barrera Offer Manager, Customized Solutions SCE Randall Higa C&S Manager SCE Richard Greenburg Product Manager SCE Teren Abear ET Field Placement Manager SCE Energy Efficiency Programs Codes and Standards Process for LED Downlights Experiences with LED Downlights for SCE Residential Programs Experience with LED Downlight in SCE s Emerging Technology Programs David Bend LMT Program Manager PG&E PG&E s Efforts in Residential Lighting Mike Nguyen LMT Program Manager SDG&E SDG&E Efforts in Residential Lighting Jim Benya Principal Benya Lighting Design perspective on LED downlights Rick Bain Gus Lanese Eileen Eaton Konstantinos Papamichael Karl Johnson Eric Richman Director of Business Development LED Replacement Lamp, Engineer Lighting Program Manager Co Director of CLTC Research Coordinator Senior Research Engineer Cree Inc. General Electric Consortium for Energy Efficiency California Lighting Technology Center California Institute for Energy and Environment Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Manufacturer LED Downlight Perspective Manufacturer LED Downlight Perspective Energy Efficiency Advocate/Industry Perspective on LED Downlights Academic Perspective on LEDs and Exterior Bi Level Lighting for the California Market Academic Perspective on LEDs and Exterior Bi Level Lighting for the California Market National Laboratory Perspective on Emerging Technologies and Codes Development Caroline Chen Evaluation Project Manager SCE Feedback on Pipeline Plans Nancy Clanton President Clanton Associates Designer Perspective Lara Cordell Account Executive Widenbach Brown Provider Perspective (works closely with clients from large companies) 1 California Public Utilities Commission. California Long Term Energy Efficiency Strategic Plan. September

4 PURPOSE OF RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING SOLUTIONS PIPELINE PLAN This Residential Lighting Solutions Pipeline Plan is a guiding document for implementing the LMT program in Its purpose is to: Characterize the current residential lighting market and relevant trends. Describe the market transformation process for pushing the market towards more efficient lighting solutions and trimming transformed solutions from investor owned utilities (IOUs) energy efficiency portfolios. Help IOUs meet the lighting needs of customers within the residential market sector and help meet the IOUs and California s energy efficiency goals by identifying strategic lighting solutions to push and to trim. o Lighting Solution Push: Present the rationale for pushing a lighting solution, recent programmatic and non programmatic efforts, and a strategy for overcoming market barriers that coordinates actions among IOUs and other market actors. This pipeline plan pushes LED downlights. o Lighting Solution Trim: Help the IOUs determine when a lighting solution has been transformed and how to best phase out support. This pipeline plan trims compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs). UPDATES TO PIPELINE PLANS This plan is a living document that will be updated annually to incorporate relevant findings from newly completed studies. The next update will incorporate findings from the following studies: KEMA. California Lighting Retail Store Shelf Survey Report. Fall KEMA. California LED Lamp Market Characterization Report Southern California Edison. LED Market Trial. In progress. Currently, this residential pipeline plan outlines steps to push and trim a limited number of lighting solutions. The LMT program staff worked collaboratively with various other energy efficiency program staff to identify these solutions. In the future, LMT program staff will select additional lighting solutions to push or trim based on information derived from the LMT Lighting Solution Workbook, the LMT Lighting Activity Workbook, and past versions of the LMT Lighting Solution Pipeline Plans. A description of the Lighting Solutions Workbook and the Lighting Activity Workbook follow. The LMT Lighting Solution Workbook is a utility program planning tool. The workbook contains market data that allow for prioritizing lighting solutions (such as products, systems, and design strategies) by sector (residential and non residential), technology, savings potential, and market barriers. The prioritization variables depend on the specific aspect in consideration for program planning, but will result in a set of Key Lighting Solutions that balance the availability of stakeholder resources, existing interest and momentum, and the level of effort required to affect the market. The LMT Lighting Activity Workbook contains information about the various completed, ongoing, and planned IOU lighting activities (such as technology assessments, demonstrations, program trial studies, and measurement & evaluation market studies). The Lighting Activity Workbook allows analysis of lighting activity gaps and needs to prioritize, align, and streamline lighting activities for efficiently overcoming the Key Lighting Solutions market barriers. 4

5 RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING MARKET SECTOR OVERVIEW CALIFORNIA S LIGHTING MARKET Lighting represents 22% of the electricity used in the average California home (California Public Utilities Commission, 2008), which is approximately 16,000 GWh/year across residences in the IOU service areas. Based on data contained in the Lighting Solutions Workbook and KEMA s socket inventory data from , 2 residential energy consumption by product type is as shown in Table 1. Table 1. California Residential Lighting End Use Consumption by Product Type Product Type Percent of Interior Lighting End Use Consumption Incandescent Medium Screw Base (MSB) 62% Linear Fluorescent 10% CFL MSB 8% Incandescent Small Screw Base 8% Halogen Pin Base 6% Halogen MSB 3% LED MSB 0% Product Type Percent of Exterior Lighting End Use Consumption Incandescent Flood MSB 72% Halogen Flood MSB 28% * Does not sum to 100% due to rounding. This table shows there is significant potential for energy savings in California residential lighting applications, primarily by replacing incandescent lamps. Incandescent lamps are ubiquitous in the residential market and are found in a variety of fixture types (wall, ceiling, recessed, ceiling fan, etc.) and locations (bathroom, bedroom, living room, kitchen, office, etc.). Most lamps in the home are connected to a simple on/off switch; dimmers and three way switches are much less prevalent. ENERGY EFFICIENT LIGHTING TRENDS IN THE U.S. RESIDENTIAL MARKET The United States residential lighting market still has substantial potential for energy savings. Of the 51.4 average lamps installed in a U.S. residence, approximately 23% are CFLs, equivalent to roughly 12 2 Unpublished data. 5

6 CFLs per home. 3 Although CFLs have a 23% overall socket saturation, they represent only 8% of the interior lighting energy usage, as shown in Table 1. Thus, there is still room for significant increases in CFL saturation/penetration. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the U.S. residential sector accounts for approximately 175 Terra Watt hours (TWh) of electric consumption annually, a decrease from 208 TWh in 2001 (DOE, January 2012). This reduction of 33 TWh could be correlated to the increase in residential CFL saturation over the past decade. The residential lighting market has come a long way in adopting energy efficient technology. Prior to CFLs, dimmable incandescent lamps and luminaires, linear fluorescents, and other fluorescent luminaires were the primary sources of energy efficient lighting, which offered consumers limited functionality and aesthetics. In the early 1990s, CFLs first entered the residential lighting market with major performance limitations, which ranged from flickering and humming during operation, to poor light quality, to incompatibilities with dimming. Although an energy efficient light source was developed, there were issues that went unaddressed and ended up hampering adoption. CFLs experienced similar market barriers to those currently experienced by LED recessed downlights, such as performance, cost, and awareness. Therefore, CFLs serve as a good benchmark technology for LED recessed downlights. CFL saturation increased because of utility market coordination with manufacturers and retailers, a shift in consumer behavior toward energy efficient and environmentally friendly products, and federal and state government policies. Utility sponsored energy efficiency programs nationwide, mandated by regulators to save energy, have relied on CFL programs for large portions of their total portfolios energy savings. Early CFL promotional programs, implemented in the early 1990s, targeted the downstream market. Utilities provided a mail in or instant rebate for the purchase of ENERGY STAR qualified CFLs. Over time, programs became both more sophisticated and better aligned with natural market forces by transforming incentives from the downstream to upstream market. This transformation allowed CFL manufacturers to lower product cost to retailers while maintaining profit margins for both the manufacturer and retailer. As a result, CFLs that were incentivized by utility programs could be sold at a lower retail price and often in premium shelf spaces, such as end caps and aisle displays. When lower costs were combined with marketing efforts by the utility, retailer, and manufacturer, consumers were motivated to purchase CFLs because they understood the benefits and were willing to pay a marginal increase over the cost of an incandescent. This upstream CFL program model is still used by many utilities, including the California IOUs, to help spur CFL market transformation was a banner year for energy efficiency and residential lighting. Wal Mart announced its intention in late 2006 to sell over 100 million CFLs at its Wal Mart and Sam s Clubs locations in the U.S. during The company met its goal by the end of September 2007, ahead of schedule. 4 Other retailers responded to Wal Mart s CFL campaign by increasing their own stock of CFLs and changing lighting planograms. 5 As CFLs became more mainstream, they began to be featured in car and consumer goods 3 U.S. Department of Energy U.S. Lighting Market Characterization, Building Technology Program. January Wal Mart Stores, Inc. Press Room. Wal Mart Surpasses Goal To sell 100 million compact fluorescent light bulbs Three Months Early. Bentonville, Ark., Oct. 2, Planograms are diagrams or models that indicate the placement of retail products on shelves in order to maximize sales. 6

7 commercials that encouraged consumers to be more environmentally conscious and make smarter purchase decisions. During this rapid increase in CFL sales, California mandated increased efficacy for general service incandescent lamps that was to be effective on January 1, This mandate was a precursor to the passage of the Energy Information and Security Act (EISA) that began in 2012 with the phase out of standard 100 watt incandescent light bulbs. Over a two year period, all medium screw base general service lamps manufactured in and imported to the U.S. will be required to comply with specific efficacy mandates. The complete timeline and associated performance metrics are provided below in Table 2. The U.S. is not alone in its mandate for efficiency improvements for general service lamps. Effective in 2009, Australia, the European Union, and Switzerland banned incandescent light bulbs. 6 Canada phased out incandescent light bulbs starting in Table 2. EISA Chart 8 EISA Effective Dates Incandescent Replaced EISA Replacement EISA Lumen Ranges EISA Minimum Efficacy Ranges 1/1/ W 72 W 1,490 2, lm/w 1/1/ W 53 W 1,050 1, lm/w 1/1/ W 43 W 750 1, lm/w 1/1/ W 29 W lm/w While the impact of EISA is still being measured, since 2007 an influx of new, more energy efficient lighting technologies have entered the retail market, such as LED and hybrid halogen incandescent bulbs. LEDs have been under development for much of the past decade. With advances in technology, LEDs are becoming more feasible for use in general illumination and specific niche applications in the residential market. Performance, quality, lack of awareness, cost, and other types of barriers exist for LED applications (to be explored further for LED recessed downlights in this pipeline plan), but LED technology is improving from early prototypes and is beginning to be introduced to market through the same utility programs that impacted the market for CFLs. The federal government, academia, manufacturers, retailers, utilities and energy efficiency program administrators, and energy efficiency advocates are very optimistic about LEDs market entrance; however, the optimism is also cautious. Many in the residential lighting industry recognize that CFLs were likely made available in the retail marketplace prematurely, before some of their serious flaws had been adequately addressed. These flaws adversely affected, and continue to affect, consumers willingness to use CFLs, even now that newer CFL models have overcome many of the early flaws and CFL prices are becoming comparable to incandescent prices. LED proponents do not want to repeat the mistake of prematurely promoting the product, nor do they want the introduction of LEDs to adversely 6 Kanter, James. "Europe's Ban on Old Style Bulbs Begins". The New York Times ( ). Retrieved May Reuters. Canada to ban incandescent light bulbs by Retrieved May lightbulbs env idusn Source: Energy Information and Security Act of

8 affect the lighting market as a whole. While barriers to energy efficient lighting still exist, such as lack of consumer awareness, consumer preferences, high bulb cost, poor performance, and poor reliability, they are being addressed more holistically by a coordinated market effort that has learned from the experience of bringing CFLs to market. The residential lighting market has clearly made significant advances in energy efficiency over the past decade. It is a considerable achievement that the U.S. has saved 33 TWh while the number of lamps in a home has increased during the same period. Although the future of residential lighting is unknown, two things are certain: CFLs will continue to play a role, and the saturation of LEDs will increase as the 77% of sockets in U.S. homes (DOE, January 2012) with standard incandescent lighting are retrofitted with more efficient lamps. MARKET TRANSFORMATION PROCESS The LMT program works to transform the market through pushing, or interventions that bring advanced lighting technologies and best practices to the marketplace and support rapid adoption by end users (California Public Utilities Commission, 2008), while trimming back those substantially adopted by the market or adding them into codes and standards. PUSH In the following Lighting Solution Push section, this document presents: The lighting technology intended to push into the market, its applications, and the rationale for its inclusion (including energy and non energy benefits); An overview of current programmatic and non programmatic efforts; A discussion of major market barriers, how each of these can be overcome; and A strategy for the LMT team to implement with key partners, such as manufacturers and industry advocates. TRIM This document s Lighting Solution Trim section discusses criteria for determine when a lighting technology has been adopted by the market. This includes providing an overview of proposed technologies that may be ready for trimming and the rationale for trimming the technologies. The section concludes by suggesting strategic approaches for trimming. LIGHTING SOLUTION PUSH: LED DOWNLIGHT DESCRIPTION OF LED DOWNLIGHTS AND APPLICATIONS The recessed downlight category encompasses a broad range of luminaires, which share the attribute of being installed above the ceiling and emitting light through an aperture. The market wide portfolio of downlights includes products with either round or rectangular apertures that range in width from 8

9 approximately two inches to 12 inches. Common in both residential and commercial applications, they are primarily used to provide ambient illumination; in some cases, they may also be used for accent illumination. 9 Recessed downlights are most often installed in kitchens, hallways, bathrooms, and other areas such as media rooms and dining rooms. Figure 1 shows a few example products listed in the ENERGY STAR qualified LED lighting list. 10 Figure 1. ENERGY STAR Residential LED Recessed LED Downlights 11 Conventional residential and light commercial downlights the intended market for LED retrofit downlight units typically use CFL, incandescent, or halogen lamps. Depending on the specific application, the source may be either an omnidirectional lamp (e.g., A lamp, ED17 triple tube) or a directional lamp, such as a reflector (R, BR, ER) or parabolic aluminized reflector (PAR) lamp (DOE, March 2012). Examples of these replacement lamps are shown in Figure 2. Figure 2. Examples of Replacement Lamps for Recessed Downlights 12 The light output of a traditional recessed downlight is a function of the lumens produced by the lamp and the luminaire efficiency. Reflector style lamps are specially shaped and coated to emit light in a defined cone, while A style incandescent lamps (or A lamps) and CFLs emit light in all directions, leading to significant light loss unless the luminaire is designed with internal reflectors. Downlights using nonreflector lamps are typically 50% to 60% efficient, which means that approximately half the light produced by the lamp is wasted inside the fixture. 13 Figure 3 provides an overview of light dispersion and light loss that is experienced when using omnidirectional light sources. A lamps and CFLs suffer from light loss, whereas the covered reflector and recessed downlight maximizes light dispersion. Figure 3 does not include replacement PAR and reflector LED bulbs, which were some of the first LED replacement bulbs to gain market acceptance. 9 U.S. Department of Energy CALiPER Application Summary Report 14: LED Downlight Retrofit Units, Solid State Lighting Program. March ENERGY STAR. ENERGY STAR qualified LED Lighting. Revised October 22, Products from left to right: HALO ML706835, Cree CR6 575L, and WAC HR LED Products from left to right: Sylvania Ultra LED PAR30, Greenlite R30, and Sylvania BR30 Reflector Flood. 13 Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. LED Application Series: Recessed Downlights

10 Figure 3. Downlight Light Dispersion and Light Loss 14 LED recessed downlights can either be used as a retrofit product or for new construction, where they are currently becoming more common with builders. With advances in design, LED downlights can retrofit existing line voltage recessed downlight fixtures or they can be screwed into Edison based sockets. Not every existing recessed downlight application may be retrofitted with LED downlights, but there are currently LED recessed downlights available in the market that meet the needs of existing recessed downlight applications. Recent studies have shown that ENERGY STAR qualified LED recessed downlights provide desired color temperature and color rendering with better efficacy than incumbent technologies, including CFLs (DOE, March 2012). RATIONALE FOR PUSHING At this point in the technology commercialization process, LED recessed downlight solutions have been primarily targeted for nonresidential installations at nonresidential price points. Many activities, such as an increasing number of incentives, have focused on overcoming barriers in the nonresidential market sector and most have been successful. The residential market sector has tremendous potential for energy savings in recessed downlights applications and, if its market barriers can be overcome, the longterm energy savings potential of LEDs in recessed downlight applications will be very large. ENERGY AND DEMAND BENEFITS LED technology is ready for the residential market sector. When compared to incandescent lighting, the predominant technology used in residential downlight applications, ENERGY STAR qualified LED recessed downlights, can decrease energy use by 75% or more. 15 With over 800 million downlights installed in the U.S., 16 the annual realized savings if all residential downlights were switched from 65 watt incandescent to 10 watt LED exceeds 48,180 GWh, 17 which is 14 Ibid Accessed October Navigant Consulting. Energy Savings Estimates of Light Emitting Diodes in Niche Lighting Applications. Prepared for Building Technologies Program, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy. October Assumes three hours of daily use. 10

11 enough to power 6.8 million homes, or 6% of the nation s residential housing stock, 18 annually. In comparison, the State of California could save over 4,950 GWhs by completing this same retrofit. 19 Compared to halogens and incandescents, downlight technology LEDs have better efficacy. Efficacy measures a lighting product s efficiency by dividing its lumen output by its wattage. The higher a product s efficacy, the more energy efficient it is. Currently, LED and fluorescent downlights are equal in efficacy, but LED downlights may surpass fluorescents after more extensive research and the development of an improved manufacturing processes that increase lumen output while lowering wattage. Since they can be integrated with controls, LED downlights could be used as a demand response tool to lower peak demand. LEDs are manufactured with components that make control feasible and easy, through convenient applications such as tablets, mobile phones, and home control systems. Utilities could consider controlling LEDs in a home through Smart Grid technologies that respond to peak demand reduction needs. As manufacturers, lighting designers, and utilities continue to learn about the potential of LED technology, this use may be pursued more aggressively. NON ENERGY BENEFITS In addition to robust energy savings, LED downlights provide many non energy benefits over incumbent technologies. These are: Product Performance: Several experts we interviewed to develop these pipeline plans agreed with one who said, the first success of LED lighting was LED downlights. LED downlights are instant on and come to full brilliancy immediately, unlike fluorescent technology. LEDs are rated for a long life that often surpasses 25,000 hours of use, whereas halogen and incandescent downlights are typically rated for 1,000 hours. LED downlights are designed with heat sinks that allow for better management of heat generation, which is often the cause for early burnouts in incandescent, halogen, and fluorescent technology. Like halogen and incandescent technology, many LED downlights are fully dimmable to light levels less than 5% of total lumen output. LED light output (and efficacy) increases as operating temperatures drop (DOE, January 2012), in contrast to fluorescent technology. Light Quality: LEDs downlights provide better quality light and light dispersion than incumbent technologies. The beam angle 20 of LED downlights varies from product to product, but generally is wide enough to provide equal light distribution for ambient lighting. LED downlights emit a light similar in appearance to the correlated color temperature (CCT) commonly associated with incandescent technology that consumers desire (2,700 K). The light quality, or color rendering index (CRI), for a sampling of LED downlights measured recently through Commercially Available LED Product Evaluation and Reporting (CALiPER) testing was greater than or equal to 80 CRI (DOE, March 2012), which is the benchmark used by ENERGY STAR for qualifying eligible replacement lamps. Functionality: In contrast to incandescent, halogen, and fluorescent technologies, which have reached the limit of further development, LED downlights have not yet realized their full 18 U.S. Census. Total Housing Inventory for the United States: 1990 to 2010, Table Assumes 11,502,870 households replacing an average of seven incandescent recessed cans to LED and three hours of daily use: ((Total California households/average recessed downlights in U.S. home)* 55 watts * 1,095 hours)/(10 9 watt hours/gwh) 20 The degree of width that light emits from a light source. 11

12 potential when it comes to control, custom light appearance, and design. LED recessed downlights are still too new to assess how the market will adapt to its various options; however, there are several implications on how they may transform. According to experts we interviewed for this pipeline plan, in the future LED downlights will be integrated into controls used by consumers, building operators, and utilities. Further market research for LEDs may determine a custom CCT, or light appearance, for specific applications; this appeal to customer satisfaction could increase the adoption of LED technology. LED technology is malleable and can be adapted for virtually any market need. As a result, lighting manufacturers are producing LED downlights that meet the demands of the new construction and retrofit markets. Manufacturers offer integrated replacement fixture trim kits and replacement lamps for retrofitting existing downlight applications, and they offer integrated hardwired trim kits for new construction. Health and Safety: LED downlights do not contain mercury or other toxic materials. Mercury is a component of fluorescents, which has prohibited some consumers from supporting that technology. Since LEDs manage heat generation better, there is less risk of fire compared to incandescent or halogen technology, which both waste large amounts of energy as heat. OVERVIEW OF CURRENT EFFORTS This section is organized by programmatic (utility program) and non programmatic (non utility program) efforts. OVERVIEW OF CALIFORNIA PROGRAMMATIC EFFORTS In 2007, IOUs learned about LED recessed downlights as a potential energy efficiency opportunity through various conferences, tradeshows, and journals. At that time, the market barriers for LED technology were a lack of information, high cost, and performance uncertainty. SCE project managers and engineers gathered technical information through meetings and demonstrations with product manufacturers. Some manufacturers allowed SCE to conduct one off tests of products at the Southern California Lighting Technology Center (SCLTC). Concurrently, the SCLTC was evaluating LED recessed downlights. Over time, product performance improved to the point it merited an Emerging Technology (ET) assessment project. SEC initiated this project, SCE ET Residential LED Downlighting, in 2007 to fully evaluate the performance of the hardwired and screw based replacement lamp technology in a laboratory setting and provide additional data on residential kitchen lighting use. During the assessment, SCE shared the performance information with ENERGY STAR to support its development of criteria for LED technologies. SCE published the performance data from the ET assessment, completed in 2009, that same year in an Interior LED Downlight Fixtures work paper. The assessment concluded that many lamps did not emit sufficient lumens for consideration as a replacement lamp. In addition, several products that were tested failed prematurely. LED downlight quality has improved substantially since this ET assessment was completed; LEDs are now similar in efficacy to CFL applications and have a decreased failure rate. To validate these improvements in LED downlight technology, scaled field placement pilots have been scoped in 2012 for recessed downlights, specifically targeting residential and commercial applications. The California Energy Commission (CEC) and its partners conducted other LED downlight demonstration projects during the implementation of the ET assessment project. The ET project, work paper, CEC 12

13 demonstration projects, and ENERGY STAR criteria have helped establish information and performance certainty for SCE s incentive programs. Following the completion of the work paper, SCE added LED recessed downlights to its Commercial, Industrial, and Agricultural Calculated Incentives Program to help overcome the market barrier of LED s high initial cost. However, the structure of the Calculated Incentive Program limited LED measure adoption because it required many steps to receive incentives. In 2010, to overcome this program transaction cost barrier and to help increase the measure adoption rate, SCE incorporated LED technology into the IOU Commercial, Industrial, and Agricultural Deemed Incentives Program. The Express Solutions Program, a deemed program that provides an incentive for the installation of qualified LED downlights, currently has the best participation among contractors and other trade allies because of the ease of receiving incentives. These contractors and trade allies, who work with the many businesses that retrofit lighting and make other efficiency upgrades, benefit from SCE s continuing outreach and training opportunities. Early in 2012, the Resource Conservation District of Greater San Diego County and SDG&E s ET subprogram conducted an assessment project to evaluate downlight LED technology. This assessment project will assist offices to determine the applicability of LED recessed downlights for general illumination. The project s goal is to determine the energy savings potential of downlight LEDs as the source for general illumination lighting compared to the standard Title base case fluorescent in a small office setting. Quantitative light and electric power measurements recorded a 16% reduction in energy usage and demand with LED luminaires compared to the lighting power density (LPD) requirement for office space illumination per Title Table 3 below compares the product performance using manufacturer data, the project s measured data, and the CALiPER testing data, which shows variance in energy consumption and color appearance. These variances show why in situ testing is important for LEDs in comparison to lab testing. In situ testing provides a more realistic forecast of performance attributes. Table 3. LED Downlight Performance Data* Manufacturer Measured CALiPER Power (W) CCT (K) 3,500 3,377 3,402 Power Factor > *LMT Program Staff. LMT Pipeline Plan updates, DRAFT version. May Any decision to select LEDs must consider design, functionality, and occupant behavior; acceptance and tolerance of an emerging light source technology; luminaire quality; and the economy. Because each situation is unique, project managers must exercise due diligence in determining the appropriateness of LEDs for general illumination, luminaire selection, lighting design, and layout. This assessment demonstrated that LED recessed downlights deliver lighting power densities that meet or exceed Title 24 requirements. The results of this project attest to the leaps in technological enhancements of LED luminaires. However, the main barrier to significant market adoption is the high initial cost when choosing LEDs as the general illumination ambient lighting in new construction. Incentives offered by 13

14 utilities in the short term could help to reduce the initial costs for customers to be early adopters of this new LED technology. The IOUs have provided a $30 per unit incentive for ENERGY STAR qualified recessed downlights in their core commercial programs since the beginning of the program cycle. Since the 2011 LMT report submission, the IOUs have evaluated LED technology for possible inclusion in the Upstream Lighting Program, which benefits the residential market. Currently, SCE and PG&E are both conducting an incentive level pilot test with mass market retailers in their service territories to determine seasonal product price elasticity and to establish the most impactful incentive level. Both pilots track weekly sales data for six different price points for LED applications in geo clusters that represent different demographics. A report on the effectiveness of the incentives will be available in late Because high price is often cited as the largest barrier to market adoption of LED downlights, this pilot will help inform future residential LED upstream incentive programs. The next largest barrier after high price is lack of awareness of LEDs and how they work, according to preliminary results from consumer focus groups. Cadmus conducted more complete surveys in spring 2012 with consumers who were divided into two groups: (1) those not educated about LEDs and (2) those educated about LEDs. Those who were not educated about LEDs attended a focus group to answer questions about their experiences with LED products. Those who were educated about LEDs received eight types of LEDs to test at home; then we surveyed them on their preferences. A final report of these results will be available late In addition to market research, the utilities throughout California are collaborating on a joint education campaign to educate their customers on changes in the lighting industry. In the past, educational efforts for lighting have been too general for energy efficient lighting. This campaign will be more focused on the types of lamps available, differences between lumens and watts, the best application for a specific lamp or technology, how to read the Lighting Facts Label, and many other lighting related questions. NON PROGRAMMATIC EFFORTS Both the lighting and energy efficiency industry have been heavily involved in shaping the landscape for LED downlights by implementing programs that emphasize quality and performance expectations and deliver training and education. The DOE, ENERGY STAR, and North American Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) have helped advance the quality and adoption of LED downlights through such programs as those detailed below: CALiPER Program: The DOE CALiPER program uses industry approved procedures to test a wide array of solid state lighting (SSL) products available for general illumination. CALiPER test results (1) guide DOE planning for SSL research, development, and market introduction activities, including ENERGY STAR program planning; (2) support DOE GATEWAY demonstrations and technology procurement activities; (3) provide objective product performance information to the public in the early years, which helps buyers and specifiers have confidence that new SSL products will perform as claimed; and (4) guide the development, refinement, and adoption of credible, standardized test procedures and measurements for SSL products. 21 LED Lighting Facts : The DOE LED Lighting Facts is a program that showcases LED products for general illumination from manufacturers who commit to testing products and reporting 21 U.S. Department of Energy. Solid State Lighting: CALiPER Program. Last Updated May 16,

15 performance results according to industry standards. For lighting buyers, designers, and energyefficiency programs, the LED Lighting Facts Label provides information essential to evaluating products and identifying the best options. 22 The biggest success of the LED Lighting Facts program was the creation of the Lighting Facts Label, which resembles a food nutrition label and describes such features as lumens, efficacy, and CRI. A sample label is shown below in Figure 4. Figure 4. LED Lighting Facts Label 23 The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) modified this Lighting Facts Label that, effective January 2012, is mandated for use on general service replacement lamps. A sample of the FTC s Lighting Facts Label is shown below in Figure Figure 5. FTC Lighting Facts Label 22 U.S. Department of Energy: LED Lighting Facts. Success with solid state lighting U.S. Department of Energy: LED Lighting Facts. Anatomy of the Label Bureau of Consumer Protection Business Center. The FTC Lighting Facts Label: Questions and Answers for Manufacturers. Last modified April labeling your light bulbslighting facts questions and answers manufacturers. 15

16 The difference between the FTC and DOE versions of the Lighting Facts Label is that the DOE s version was developed primarily for LED applications, whereas the FTC s version was developed for all general service replacement lamps. Regardless, both Lighting Fact Labels provide consumers with necessary information about the lighting products, which aides them in making an informed purchasing decision. Other DOE Efforts: The DOE conducted other programs and initiatives to support the development of LED technology; these include offering frequent workshops, seminars, and a Technical Information Network for Solid State Lighting (TINSSL) program; 25 and spurring research and development efforts through the L Prize competition and GATEWAY demonstration programs. 26,27 While all of these efforts may not have directly impacted the growth of LED downlights, they are important due to the DOE s strong influence, and success, in bringing quality SSL products to market in the U.S. ENERGY STAR: ENERGY STAR introduced its specification for LED recessed downlights in 2008, through version 4.2 of the residential lighting fixture specification. Currently, there are 311 ENERGY STAR qualified LED recessed downlight fixtures on the qualified products list. 28 ENERGY STAR is working on a new specification for lamps, which will cover LED replacement PAR and BR lamps used in downlight fixtures. In addition to its work on specifications, ENERGY STAR oversees a rigorous third party testing program for all of its products. CEC: The CEC is currently working with technical experts, utilities, and lighting industry representatives on a voluntary quality standard for LEDs. The IOUs support the concept of the LED quality specification to improve LED quality in the market. NEMA: In an effort to tackle the dimming issues associated with LED downlights installed on incompatible circuits, NEMA is working with its members to set a standard to ensure that LED downlights will work on any dimmer when installed regardless of the dimming circuit. Lighting for Tomorrow Program: Similar in approach to the L Prize program in encouraging innovation for new LED product design, the Consortium for Energy Efficiency (CEE), in partnership with the American Lighting Association, administers an annual design competition the Lighting for Tomorrow Program. 29 In 2010, a category for LED downlights was added to the program as a specific fixture design category to help spur the development of LED downlights. Several of the past winners are having success at retail and are included in utility incentive programs. Manufacturer Education Efforts: LED manufacturers such as Cree, Philips, General Electric, and Sylvania have invested heavily in educating their customers and training contractors on the advantages of LED technology. One example of a manufacturer s commitment is Cree s LED Revolution campaign. This campaign is dedicated to educating Cree s current and potential customers about its LED technology and to marketing current installations and major projects 25 U.S. Department of Energy. Solid State Lighting: Technical Information Network. Last Modified February 27, U.S. Department of Energy. Transforming the Lighting Landscape. Last Modified March 20, U.S. Department of Energy. Solid State Lighting: Solid State Lighting GATEWAY Demonstrations. Last Modified May 20, ENERGY STAR. Light Fixtures for Consumers Lighting for Tomorrow. Lighting for Tomorrow Competition Celebrates 10th Year. Last Modified September 12,

17 throughout the U.S. 30 Through efforts by manufacturers, information and trainings on LED downlights are becoming more readily available and help to ensure a higher percentage of quality installations. The non programmatic efforts listed above are a small portion of the ongoing effort by the government, manufacturers, retailers, designers, and advocates to ensure that quality LED downlights are in the market and that appropriate education and training exists so consumers understand the benefits of the technology. In order to fully accept LED downlights, members of the supply chain need to continue to coordinate and support one another. OVERVIEW OF MAJOR MARKET BARRIERS LED recessed downlights provide many energy and non energy benefits, but many market barriers limit their mass adoption. The following are considered to be the major market barriers and are presented with some of the major questions that need to be answered to assist in market adoption: Product Performance and Quality: How can manufacturers improve performance and ensure the quality of each LED downlight sold and installed? How does one manufacturer with a highquality product separate itself from a manufacturer with a low quality product at retail? Cost: Will consumers make a trade off between low price/short life to high price/long life when lighting has traditionally been a low involvement purchase decision? 31 How will consumers adapt to a comparatively high price for LED downlights? Customer Awareness and Perceptions: What is the impetus for a consumer to move away from incandescent lighting when this technology has been accepted for so long? Why should a consumer care enough about LEDs, or any lighting, to be educated about its technology and benefits? If these market barriers and associated questions that encapsulate the issues deterring market adoption of LED recessed downlights can be addressed successfully, the likelihood of transforming the recessed downlight market with LED technology increases substantially. Figure 6 presents the market barriers and some associated activities that can help to overcome them. 30 Cree Inc. Lighting the LED Revolution Low involvement purchase decisions involve a low expenditure or personal risk, and are habitual (e.g., soft drinks, toilet paper). 17

18 Figure 6. Associated Activities to Overcome LED Recessed Downlight Market Barriers SCE and the California IOUs have already been involved in many of these activities in an effort to introduce LED recessed downlights to market. A more comprehensive approach will be detailed in the summary section. MARKET BARRIER: PRODUCT QUALITY AND PERFORMANCE Advances in technology have solved some of the early problems LED recessed downlights experienced when they first entered the market in 2008 and started competing against incumbent technologies. Although there have been many subsequent technological advances, there are still quality and performance issues that need to be addressed, as listed below: Lumen Depreciation: LED recessed downlights differ from incumbent technologies because they do not burn out; instead their brightness depreciates over time and eventually passes the point of producing useful light output. A testing procedure was developed to test LEDs for lumen depreciation by the Illuminating Engineering Society of North America (IESNA), titled IES LM 80 Measuring Lumen Maintenance of LED Light Sources (LM 80). LM 80 also addresses harmonic distortion, the output of voltage that could impair the LED applications driver. 32 One drawback of LM 80 testing is that it provides no determination or estimation of expected life or lumen output beyond test data (DOE, May 2009), making it challenging to determine the actual lifetime of the LED application tested. A separate test, also developed by IESNA, titled TM 21, addresses the estimation of actual lifetime for tested LED products. TM 21 specifies lumen maintenance behavior for LED products intended for illumination applications; 33 these include LED recessed 32 U.S. Department of Energy. Understanding IES LM 79 & IES LM 80. PowerPoint Presentation at LightFair Exhibit, May 5 7, Presented by Eric Richman, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Available online: ies.pdf. Retrieved May Philips Lumileds (Mark Hodapp). IESNA LM 80 and TM 21. PowerPoint Presentation at the Municipal State Street Lighting Consortium, Tampa, Florida Available online: se2011_hodapp.pdf. Retrieved May

19 downlights. LM 80 and TM 21 testing were made a part of the ENERGY STAR specification requirement to ensure that only quality LED products are qualified. While many manufacturers test their products using LM 80 and TM 21, not all do, which could result in premature lumen depreciation and lead to consumer dissatisfaction. Components: LED recessed downlights are made of several components that, if assembled incorrectly, can adversely impact product performance. Components in LED recessed downlights include LED chips or diodes, a circuit board, lens, fixture housing, heat sink, driver, and power supply. In addition to poor assembly, poor quality components will lessen the overall bulb quality and lifetime. There is no guarantee that manufacturers will continue to use all of these components in recessed downlights in the future. There could be a shift to consumers demanding a fixture that is compatible with replacement lamps or other alternatives, which could benefit LED technology, but negatively impact the market for LED recessed downlights. Binning: The binning 34 of LEDs is a practice used by LED manufacturers to manage the variation of LED performance in mass production processes. The inefficiencies of binning may create vulnerability in the supply chain for the market. To reduce the risk, LED manufacturers often choose binning schemes in accordance with their specific or unique mass production process. As a result, the LED components or packages produced by the manufacturers maintain structured variations for their performance characteristics. Because of the uniqueness of the mass production and quality control process used by each LED manufacturer, the LED products supplied to LED system integrators or assemblers (module makers, luminaire makers, etc.) with similar performance characteristics produced by different manufacturers are binned and labeled differently. The binning structures and labeling (marking) varies from manufacturer to manufacturer. This inconsistency in binning structure requires more effort by LED system integrators and assemblers. More unnecessary testing, verifications, qualification, and validations processes have to take place, which hampers productivity 35 and can increase the price of an LED application. Heat: To provide the light output typically expected for downlights, multiple LEDs must be grouped together. This clustering generates heat, which requires good thermal management in the fixture. If the fixture temperature rises too high, the LEDs light output will fall and their life will be shortened. Thermal management is especially critical in insulated ceiling applications, where fixture temperatures can be much higher than in other applications. 36 While advanced technology has allowed manufacturers to produce LED recessed downlights that do not fail from overheating, there are still commercially available products with inadequate heat management. Dimming: LEDs provide much smoother and more consistent dimming than dimmable CFLs; however, it is important to identify standards for dimming to ensure compatibility between the LED driver and a dimmer switch. This issue is being addressed, but according to experts we interviewed for this paper, consumers do not understand the differences in dimming switches and that they are not compatible with all technologies and various brands. In addition, there are consistency issues with dimmer switches that need to be addressed. A wide variety of dimmer switches are capable of dimming LEDs down to 15% of full light output; select others are capable 34 Binning is a process designed to maximize effective utilization in the production of LEDs that has implications on product performance, cost, and lead time. 35 PennWell Corporation. NEMA publishes white LED binning standard (SSL ). LEDs Magazine. April 15, Broderick, James. Are LEDs ready for recessed downlight applications? May