Accelerating Market Adoption of LED Lighting

Transcription

1 Accelerating Market Adoption of LED Lighting DLC Stakeholder Meeting October 29, 2012 James Brodrick, Ph.D. U.S. Department of Energy Program Name or Ancillary Text eere.energy.gov

2 A Market in Constant Change LED lighting now has a solid market foothold Widening range of products on the market Initial focus on replacement lamps Increasing focus on integral luminaires, specifically designed for SSL Quality and performance improving, but performance still highly variable Costs still high, but coming down rapidly across the market Changes are happening quickly. If your organization analyzed SSL options 12 months ago, that analysis is likely out of date. 2 Solid-State Lighting Program

3 Market Studies Report and Forecast Rapidly Changing Market Strategies Unlimited, one of the top SSL market analysis firms SSL lighting market almost doubled from 2010 ($5.5 billion) to 2011 ($9.4 billion) C&I sector accounted for highest growth last year, and accounted for 25% of the total SSL market in 2011 Retrofit lamps are only 13% of SSL revenue in 2011, but units sold are way up due to drastic price declines Price of downlights, retrofit lamps, and street lights dropped 15 20% in 2011 LED cool white package dropped from $13 per kilolumen in 2010 to $6 per kilolumen in Solid-State Lighting Program

4 Efficacy (lm/w) DOE White Light LED Package Efficacy and Cost Projections Relative Manufacturing Cost ($) Color-Mixed Cool pc-led Cool Color-mixed Warm pc-led Warm Qual Data Warm Qual Data Cool Packaging Phosphor Wafer Processing Epitaxy Substrate Efficacy Projections Cost Projections Sources: Fig. 5.5, 2012 SSL Multi-Year Program Plan; Fig. 1.2, 2012 SSL R&D Manufacturing Roadmap: 4 Solid-State Lighting Program

5 Efficacy Trends for LED Replacement Lamps Sources: Linear, A-Lamp, and Directional DOE LED Lighting Facts Products List, March 2012, lightingfacts.com/products. MYPP Projections 2010 data: DOE Solid-State Lighting Research and Development Multi-Year Program Plan, May data: DOE Solid-State Lighting Research and Development Multi-Year Program Plan, April Analysis and figure D&R International. Source: Fig. 3, LED Lighting Facts Product Snapshot: LED Replacement Lamps (July 2012), 5 Solid-State Lighting Program

6 Output (lm) Lumen Output Trends in LED Replacement Lamps $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 Cost per Lamp Report 1: $139/klm Report 2: $62/klm (55% drop) Retail Replacement Lamps 2 Retail Replacement Lamps 1 Incandescent Benchmarks Halogen Benchmarks CFL Benchmarks Source: Fig. 1, CALiPER Exploratory Study, Retail Replacement Lamps 2011 (April 2012), 6 Solid-State Lighting Program

7 Outdoor Lighting Cost Trends Seattle streetlight experience (for purchases of 2,000+ units)... price reduction of 45% in past 30 months Several manufacturers recently announced LED streetlights for under $200 Simple payback of 6 9 years typical Source: Seattle City Light Streetlight Program 7 Solid-State Lighting Program

8 Factors Driving Down the Cost of SSL Better luminaire designs; learning as they go New LED product formats Modules, light engines, multi-chip packages, high voltage packages, etc. Improved efficacy and improved thermal resilience Combined effect is to reduce the required number of LEDs per product Industry standards in manufacturing, product formats Improved manufacturing Larger wafers, better quality control, more uniform epitaxy, all leading to higher production yields Industry over-capacity; competition is driving down margins 8 Solid-State Lighting Program

9 High-Performance Product Trends Lithonia Utility/General Purpose LED Fixture 98 lm/w Features embedded controls and full-range dimming Judges impressed by high efficacy and value provided Nice appearance and light distribution Great serviceability Albeo High Bay Industrial Luminaire 94 lm/w Modular design provides range of options; housing and optics are field serviceable Judges impressed by interesting optical design plus efficient glare control 2012 Next Generation Luminaires, Indoor Competition Winners, 9 Solid-State Lighting Program

10 High-Performance Product Trends Cree CR Architectural LED Troffers 90 lm/w Modular troffers feature room-side thermal management, multiple CCTs, step dimming Judges commended heat sink, glare control, value Galaxia Smart LED Lighting System 91 lm/w Features occupancy and photo sensors Judges impressed by very cool control system with dimming and color changing capabilities 2012 Next Generation Luminaires, Indoor Competition Winners, 10 Solid-State Lighting Program

11 So What Does This Mean for You? LED lighting is no longer around the corner it is here and has a solid market foothold Performance is improving, costs are coming down High-performance products offer added value beyond efficacy HOWEVER There is still headroom, potential for far greater energy savings There are still performance issues to be addressed, before we see widespread market adoption 11 Solid-State Lighting Program

12 Energy Savings Potential Is Significant Potential to reduce U.S. lighting electricity use by nearly one half Equivalent to the electricity needed to power 24 million households Source: Fig. ES.1, Energy Savings Potential of SSL in General Illumination Applications: 12 Solid-State Lighting Program

13 Performance Problems with Many of Today s Products Color consistency: Lamp to lamp, and over time Reliability: LED device plus optics, thermals, and other components Lumen maintenance Dimming performance Flicker Glare Insufficient output Poor light distribution Thermal issues Manufacturer claims: Much better, but still see some doozies 13 Solid-State Lighting Program

14 Example: Manufacturer Claims and Utility Programs Product is on qualified products list for utilities; listed as HID Replacement Manufacturer sells as LED Street Light, capable of replacing W HPS Qualifying SSL To Replace This? Source Type LED HPS Input Power (W) Luminaire Output (lm) 2,043 10,642 Luminous Efficacy (lm/w) Distribution Type Type III Short Type III Medium (Type III Medium Product) Maximum Intensity (cd) 999 6,045 Approximate CCT (K) CRI Rated Lifetime (Hrs) 107,000 24,000 Lumen Maintenance at 50% Life ~85% 90% Maximum Pole Spacing* <25' 146' 202' (Only Illuminance) 14 Solid-State Lighting Program

15 Example: Dimming Problems Most of today s dimming controls are designed for incandescents LED products have significantly more complex interactions Wide variation in LED sources and dimmers Compatibility issues can cause dead travel, pop-on, drop-out, flashing, flicker, audible noise Need for new approaches for LED dimming In the meantime, manufacturer guidance on compatible combinations is key NEW: LED Lighting Facts encourages manufacturers to provide optional dimming information 15 Solid-State Lighting Program

16 How Can DOE Help? Unbiased, vendor neutral resources Testing, demonstrations, and analysis expand our knowledge base Guide manufacturers and product improvements Help buyers make informed decisions Buyer guidance informs decision-making Design competitions drive innovation, draw attention to well-designed products Workshops, roundtables, working groups identify needs, address critical issues 16 Solid-State Lighting Program

17 Market Studies & Technical Reports Provide Objective Analysis U.S. Lighting Market Characterization Energy Savings Potential of SSL in General Illumination Applications Life-Cycle Energy and Environmental Analysis of LED Lighting (parts 1 & 2 published, part 3 in progress) U.S. Residential Lighting End-Use Consumption Study (in process) 17 Solid-State Lighting Program

18 NEW: Life-Cycle Analysis of SSL and Other Light Sources Comprehensive study helps dispel misinformation circulating in market Key findings: Environmental impact dominated by energy consumed during use phase (compared to manufacturing and transport) LED lamp has much lower impact than incandescent; somewhat lower than CFL Future LED lamp projected to have even lower impact Source: Fig. 1-1, Life-Cycle Assessment of Energy and Environmental Impacts of LED Lighting Products, Part 2 : 18 Solid-State Lighting Program

19 CALiPER Testing Fosters Developing Market Performs independent testing of wide array of SSL products Anonymously purchased Testing reports made available to the public Often reveal inaccurate manufacturer claims, performance issues that warrant further attention Discourage low-quality products Help utilities, large purchasers make informed decisions CALiPER has become part of industry lexicon; Cree CEO called it DOE s tough love of the SSL industry 19 Solid-State Lighting Program

20 CALiPER Reports Detail Results from Products Tested Summary reports provide detailed analysis of results for all products tested in a category Exploratory studies offer deeper analysis of critical issues (e.g., dimming) Detailed test reports provide results for each product tested; available through searchable, sortable database Search by category, efficacy, CCT, CRI, and/or power factor View side-by-side comparison of results 20 Solid-State Lighting Program

21 NEW: CALiPER Troffer Study Installed 24 pairs of recessed luminaires (LED tubes, LED luminaires, retrofit kits) Installed dimming controls Invited 18 designers/engineers to observe, brainstorm, and comment Feedback from non-lighting experts invited as well Results on dimming, flicker, glare, distribution, etc. will inform future CALiPER studies, provide feedback to manufacturers on product designs Report to be published in February Solid-State Lighting Program

22 LED Lighting Facts Resources Provide Buyer Guidance Product performance reporting initiative Partners pledge to use LED Lighting Facts label, or ask for it Five key parameters verified with photometric (LM-79) tests: lumens, watts, efficacy, CRI, CCT NEW: Optional metrics for lumen maintenance, warranty, and dimming 22 Solid-State Lighting Program

23 LED Lighting Facts Tools More than 6,600 products listed on website; growing fast: Searchable database is go to resource for buyers, must have for manufacturers; many large retailers require vendors to list products Growing use by electric utilities; utility portal NEW: Significant changes underway; integrating with CALiPER at the request of utilities 23 Solid-State Lighting Program

24 GATEWAY Demonstrations Assess LED Products in Real Applications Valuable data on performance, energy savings, payback Lessons learned shape design, manufacture, installation, and use of SSL products 25 reports available online (3 new reports this month) To evaluate LED pathway lighting in a Central Park demonstration, researchers took both horizontal and vertical measurements. Photo: The Climate Group; Ryan Pyle 24 Solid-State Lighting Program

25 Municipal Solid-State Street Lighting Consortium Sharing information and best practices, developing tools, implementing demonstration projects Over 375 members Cities, lighting professionals, utilities, others 25 Solid-State Lighting Program

26 Consortium Resources and Tools Regional workshops in FY12: Dallas, Los Angeles, Boston Demonstrations: Kansas City, Sacramento, Seattle, Philadelphia Completed tools: Photo: Ryan Pyle Model Specification for LED Roadway Luminaires and Retrofit Financial Analysis Tool (all major outdoor manufacturers chose to be involved) NEW: Draft Model Specification on Controls Consortium-led resolution supporting LED streetlighting approved by U.S. Conference of Mayors, June Solid-State Lighting Program

27 Commercial Building Energy Alliances Transform the energy efficiency of commercial buildings Retailer Energy Alliance Commercial Real Estate Energy Alliance Hospital Energy Alliance Product Performance Specifications LED Retail Parking Lot LED Refrigerated Display Cases High-Efficiency Lighting for Parking Structures High-Efficiency 2 x2 Troffer Lighting REA Steering Committee jcpenney Kohl s Lowe s McDonald s Staples SUPERVALU Target The Home Depot Walmart Whole Foods Market YUM! Brands 27 Solid-State Lighting Program

28 Next Generation Luminaires Recognizes Quality Products Sponsored by DOE, IALD, IES Focus on commercial LED luminaires Expanded in 2011 to include separate indoor and outdoor categories Indoor competition winners announced at LIGHTFAIR 2012 Outdoor competition in progress; winners to be announced at Strategies in Lighting (Feb 2013) Now widely regarded as the best luminaire design competition given the rigor and thoroughness of the evaluation and judging 28 Solid-State Lighting Program

29 L Prize Drives Innovation Technology competition challenges industry to meet reach performance goals Winning products must meet rigorous requirements for performance, manufacturability 60W replacement category: winner reached store shelves in April 2012 PAR38 replacement category: reopened in March 2012 Future focus: 21 st Century Lamp 29 Solid-State Lighting Program

30 Technical Information Network Spreads SSL Information Goal: Increase awareness of SSL technology, performance, and appropriate applications Share latest technology information and analysis from LED Lighting Facts, CALiPER, GATEWAY, CBEA, Consortium Participants: Utilities, national and regional energy efficiency organizations and program sponsors 30 Solid-State Lighting Program

31 TINSSL Activities Monthly meetings to share updates on progress, resources, demonstrations Webcasts highlight new tools, reports, topics of interest Fact sheets educate on key applications and issues Technical support for DLC and others (e.g., performance specifications for DLC Qualified Products List) 31 Solid-State Lighting Program

32 Opportunities to Participate Three annual workshops (~700 attendees) provide a crossroad for government, industry, research community, utilities, efficiency programs, designers, specifiers, retailers Roundtables solicit varied perspectives Four R&D Roundtables precede workshops, offer insights on latest advances and trends Annual CALiPER/Standards Roundtable examines issues related to SSL product performance, reliability, quality Targeted roundtables address needs of specific stakeholders (Utility Roundtable) Working groups formed to address critical issues (e.g., reliability) July 2011 Market Introduction Workshop February 2012 R&D Workshop www CALiPER Roundtable 32 Solid-State Lighting Program

33 2012 DOE/Utility Roundtable Attended by 28 utility and efficiency program experts Identified key challenges involved in adopting or expanding SSL programs Developed recommendations to substantially accelerate SSL market adoption Consolidate databases Develop roadmap for applications Expand efforts related to dimming issues Expand outreach and education 33 Solid-State Lighting Program

34 Consolidated Databases Integration of CALiPER database of test results and LED Lighting Facts products list One central portal for easy access to all product data Priority for FY13, making good progress 34 Solid-State Lighting Program

35 Roadmap for Applications Identify best practices, tools, and methodologies for assessing cost effectiveness in target applications Build on CA utility roadmap efforts Committee assembled Kickoff meeting in November 35 Solid-State Lighting Program

36 Dimming Expand existing efforts to support industry standards development, product testing/reporting, and education about dimming issues DOE support for NEMA SSL-7, making good progress Forward looking; will not address legacy dimmers Increased education efforts aimed at both utilities and industry 36 Solid-State Lighting Program

37 Outreach and Education Expand TINSSL efforts to share information and updates More webinars, technology fact sheets New TINSSL e-newsletter with quick-scan headlines Date Webcast # of Attendees SSL Webcasts April 2012 Municipal Solid-State Street Lighting Consortium Retrofit Analysis Tool 772 March 2012 The L Prize PAR38 Competition: A New Start 131 January 2012 The L Prize-Winning LED A19 Replacement What Commercial Building Owners/Operators Can Expect in ,125 December 2011 Evaluation of LED Lighting Options for Your Facility Webinar Hosted by IES and Trade Press Media Group 500 November 2011 Municipal Solid-State Street Lighting Consortium Model Specification for LED Roadway Luminaires 1,141 TINSSL Member Webcasts December Midwest Solid-State Lighting Plans & Perceptions Survey Summary Report 26 March 2012 Results of the LED Replacement Lamp Study 30 August 2012 Preliminary Results: Visual Quality, Acuity, and Community Acceptance of LED Streetlight Sources Solid-State Lighting Program

38 Get Ready LEDs are coming fast, and they are different Leverage DOE resources Avoid CFLs, Part 2 Acknowledge shortcomings Work together on solutions Provide buyers with reliable, accurate information Collectively, we can be so much more effective... Utility Roundtable attendee 38 Solid-State Lighting Program