Walking the Silk Road: Understanding Canada s Changing Trade Patterns

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1 Walking the Silk Road: Understanding Canada s Changing Trade Patterns International Trade and Investment Centre May 16, 2012 Michael Burt Director, Industrial Economic Trends

2 The 2000 s Were a Lost Decade For Canadian Exports (index, 2001=100) Foreign direct investment in Canada Canadian direct investment abroad Volume of imports Volume of exports 80 Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

3 Canada s Two Gear Trade Model (Canadian bilateral trade, index 2001=100) U.S. Non-U.S Sources: Industry Canada; Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

4 Key Factors Rise of emerging markets Decline in barriers to trade Changes in relative prices for many goods and services Trade mix varies considerably across countries Strength of the Canadian dollar

5 There Is Little Correlation Between Currency Movements and Trade Flows (per cent change 2011 versus 2001) U.S. Eurozone U.K. China Japan Mexico South Korea Currency vs. C$ Imports Exports Brazil India Australia Sources: Industry Canada; Bank of Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

6 Our Trade Mix Varies Widely by Country (share of total exports by product, per cent) Oil and natural gas Commercial services Manufactured primary metals Machinery Petroleum products Transportation equipment Mining (except oil and gas) Chemicals Food products Other Rest of World U.S 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Sources: Industry Canada; Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

7 Relative Prices Are Important (price index, 2001=100) Raw materials Manufactured goods Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

8 Emerging Markets Are Accounting For a Growing Share of the Trade and the Economy (share of global total, per cent) OECD share of GDP OECD share of trade Sources: World Bank; The Conference Board of Canada.

9 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% China Has Become an Important Source of Canadian Imports (share of Canadian merchandise imports, per cent) Others Germany Japan Mexico China U.S. Sources: Industry Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

10 Industries Where the U.S. Is Losing Market Share in Canada (difference in U.S. share of Canadian imports, 2011 vs. 2001) Mining (except oil and gas) Computer and electronic products Computer and information svcs Textile products Furniture Electrical equipment Plastic and rubber products Printing Animal Production Fabricated metal products Sources: Industry Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

11 Industries Where Import Penetration Has Risen the Most (difference in import share of demand, 2011 vs. 2001) Mining (except oil and gas) Clothing Leather products Textile products Primary metal manufacturing Beverage and tobacco products Travel Textile mills Petroleum and coal products Chemicals Sources: Industry Canada; Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

12 China Has Made Steady Gains in Meeting Canadian Textiles and Apparel Demand (share of Canadian demand by country, per cent) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Domestic Other imports Vietnam India Bangladesh United States (U.S.) China Sources: Industry Canada; Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

13 Canadians Are Bound for Sun Destinations (Canadian outbound overnight visits, 000s) Mexico Cuba U.K. Dominican Republic France Italy Gremany China Netherlands Spain ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

14 Import Penetration Has Fallen for Some Industries (difference in import share of demand, 2011 vs. 2001) Non-metallic mineral products Crop production Utilities Miscellaneous manufacturing Transportation equipment Fabricated metal products Forestry and logging Animal production Other business services Machinery Sources: Industry Canada; Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

15 100% Canadian Exporters Are Diversifying Their Markets (share of Canadian merchandise exports, per cent) 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% Others Korea, South Mexico Japan China U.K. U.S. 60% Sources: Industry Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

16 Most Industries Have Become Less Dependent on the U.S. (change in share of exports going to ROW, 2011 vs. 2001) Construction Wood products Computer and electronic products Fishing and hunting Mining (except oil and gas) Insurance Machinery Miscellaneous manufacturing Printing Electrical equipment and components Sources: Industry Canada; UN Service Trade Database; The Conference Board of Canada.

17 What We Export to China (billions of $, 2011) Mining (except oil and gas) Pulp and paper Processed foods Crop production Chemicals Wood Products All services Manufactured primary metals Machinery Oil and Gas Extraction Computer and electronic products Sources: Industry Canada; UN Service Trade Database; The Conference Board of Canada.

18 Industries Where Canada Is Losing Market Share in the U.S. (difference in share of U.S. imports, 2011 vs. 2001) Construction Wood products Paper products Furniture Forestry and logging China Printing Canada Animal Production Plastics and rubber products Fabricated metal products Textile mills Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; The Conference Board of Canada.

19 China Has Captured Market Share in the U.S. From Canada and Other Countries (share of U.S. merchandise imports, per cent) China Canada Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; The Conference Board of Canada.

20 Key Sources of Export Growth (2011 versus 2001, per cent change) Financial services Mining (except oil and gas) Petroleum products Computer and information services Oil and gas extraction Communications services Other business services Crop production Insurance services Primary metal manufacturing Sources: Industry Canada; UN Service Trade Database; The Conference Board of Canada.

21 China and Canada Are Finding a New Trade Equilibrium in North America China s Strengths Textiles and apparel Electronic equipment Furniture Printed materials Plastics Hardwood products Canada s Strengths Food Mining Energy Mining machinery Medical devices Professional services (engineering, financial, insurance) Petrochemicals

22 Summary Fundamental changes in who we are trading with and what we are trading Strong evidence of ongoing specialization by different countries in areas of strength China is a key driver of these changes The strong Canadian dollar has played only a minor role in this transformation

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