A FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR A STANDARD GAUGE SEPARATE RAILWAY LINE IN ESTONIA, LATVIA AND LITHUANIA. Arnis Kakulis AECOM, Director, Baltic Region

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1 A FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR A STANDARD GAUGE SEPARATE RAILWAY LINE IN ESTONIA, LATVIA AND LITHUANIA Arnis Kakulis AECOM, Director, Baltic Region 09 June 2011

2 Objective of the Feasibility Study The main objective of this feasibility study is to identify the most desirable feasible development option for a 1435 mm gauge line in the Rail Baltica corridor evolving from a top-down transport strategy covering all the three Baltic States and an EU-wide rail network rationale, and to give a complete and substantiated picture for the authorities of the 3 Baltic countries and the EU if the project seems viable enough to justify a more detailed analysis on the respective national levels and to propose a possible period for implementation of further studies at the national levels.

3 Sustainable Mobility The overall objective of the Core Network is to enhance the European added value of the Trans-European Transportation Network (TEN-T). This is defined as a benefit that goes beyond those achieved at national level and includes not only economic benefits, but also those derived in the cohesion, environmental and safety and security areas. Principles of the future TEN-T core network: integration, sustainability, territorial cohesion and openness to third countries

4 TEN-T Network Priority Projects

5 Objective of the Feasibility Study

6 Macro Economic Context in the Baltics POPULATION Population in the Baltic region is shrinking GDP Average long term growth in GDP is 2.3% in the Baltic States GVA Growth in GVA is stronger in the urban areas than in the rural areas GOODS N/S freight market is containerised E/W freight market is bulk URBAN RURAL

7 Analysis of the Supply of Transport Services RAIL Int l passenger rail service is poor. Regional rail is infrequent, yet cheap. N/S rail freight service is poor. E/W rail freight service is good. ROAD Road network quality is poor, yet permits reliable journey times. Good regional and int l coach network. AIR Reasonable network of routes for international air movements. Air service is less attractive for shorter distances. SEA E/W freight from ports to inland CIS. N/S freight is regional to Baltic ports. Sea cargo is mainly bulk cargo.

8 Existing Demand PASSENGER Passenger demand is generally low for cross border movements. Road is the preferred mode for shorter distances but changes to air for longer journeys FREIGHT There is a reasonable N/S freight demand which is currently carried by road and sea Global recession has had a negative effect on demand

9 Existing Demand - Freight ROAD RAIL

10 Constraints ECONOMIC Funding Government EU Implementation Costs CAPEX OPEX REGULATORY Planning Land expropriation Setting of Tarrifs Infrastructure Access Passenger Tariffs Freight Tariffs ENVIRONMENTAL Noise Emissions Protected Territories Sustainability TECHNICAL (TSI) New core TEN-T mixed traffic line: Line Category IV-M Structure Gauge GC (1435 mm) Maximum axle load 25 tonne Minimum maximum line speed 200kph FAST CONVENTIONAL RAIL

11 Three Track Layouts Under Consideration New Dual Track New Dual Track Adjacent to Existing Track Dual Guage/ Dual Track

12 Option Identification

13 Option Identification Initial 20+ variations narrowed down to 4 basic options. OPTION DESCRIPTION ALIGNMENT DISTANCE (km) Option 1 Red Route Option 2 Orange Route Option 3 Yellow Route Option 4 Green Route LT Border Kaunas Panevezys Riga Parnu - Tallinn LT Border Kaunas Siauliai Riga Parnu - Tallinn LT Border Kaunas Panevezys Riga Valmiera Tartu - Tallinn LT Border Kaunas Siauliai Riga Valmiera - Tartu - Tallinn New 728 Existing 815 New 818 Existing 885

14 Options Identification Distance/Passenger Journey Time Comparison

15 Technical Analysis Passenger Flows Results Diverted Trips from Competing Modes For optimum fare rates (2-way trips per day) Red Orange Yellow Green Car -2,133 (28%) -1,473 (27%) -2,322 (25%) -1,632 (26%) Diverted Trips Bus -3,452 (45%) -2,122 (39%) -3,894 (43%) -2,379 (38%) Rail -222 (3%) -481 (9%) -827 (9%) -819 (13%) Air -844 (11%) -698 (13%) -771 (8%) -599 (10%) Induced Trips 1,039 (14%) 722 (13%) 1,332 (15%) 804 (13%) Rail Baltica trips 7,689 5,496 9,146 6,234 For all options there is a significant diversion from coach Diversion from rail is highest for options which follow existing rail routes Diversion from air is highest for fastest options

16 Technical Analysis Freight Flows Model Outcome Option 1 (Red Route) 2040 Trains per day Assumes an inter-modal train with payload of 900t and bulk train with a payload of 3600t Assumes 14t per container 1 train replaces 50 lorries Assumes 18t of bulk per lorry 1 train replaces 200 lorries

17 Technical Analysis Freight Flows Freight

18 Technical Analysis Initial Option Comparison RED ORANGE YELLOW GREEN Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Comments Destination and Connectivity Primary Cities X X X X Secondary Cities X X Airports X X X X Journey Times Passenger X X Freight X X X Capacity Passenger X X X X Freight Capability Compliant with TSI X X Gauge Transfer Facilities Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania X X X X Terminal Facilities Tallinn/Riga/Kaunas X X X X Environmental Noise/Emissions X X X X Protected Territories X FRS Compliancy (initial targets overestimated) Min Operating Costs Min Capital Costs Max Journey Time Savings Max Revenue Generation Max Passenger Trips Max Freight Volumes Min Technical Constraints Min Expropiation Min Spatial Planning Approvals Max International Movements Max inner country Movements X X X X X X X X X X X Analysis Indicators Total

19 Best Feasibile Option Red Route The key features of the Red Route are: Overall length of new track 728km Design speed 240 kph maximum The route is a mixed traffic conventional route Journey times between Tallinn and the Lithuanian/Polish Border Passenger 4.13 hrs/freight hrs Average speeds Passenger 170 kph/freight 68 kph Passenger service frequency every 2 hrs starting at and finishing at 24.00hrs New/Upgraded passenger stations at Palemonas (serving both Kaunas Centre and the Airport), Panevežys, Riga Central Station, Parnu, Tallinn Airport and Tallinn Central Station. Intermodal terminals at Tallinn, Riga and Kaunas. Maintenance facilities at Rapla, Riga, and Jonava. The route is twin track for its entire length on mainly new alignment Some dual gauge (1520/1435) sections are required.

20 Best Feasibile Option Red Route

21 Red Route Sub-Options for Consideration

22 Interoperability Assessment Relevant TSI s for Rail Baltica: Infrastructure: CR INF TSI, Infrastructure: PRM TSI (since the line includes stations) Energy: CR ENE TSI (since the line is electrified) Track side CCS: CR CCS TSI RST: CR LOC&PAS TSI, RST Noise TSI On board CCS: CR CCS Operation and Traffic Management Telematic Applications for both Freight and Passenger Services.

23 Implementation Plan Implementation is complex for the following reasons: Presence of up to 4 nation stakeholders in addition to other national interested parties Existence of differing regional economic objectives Need to accommodate the requirements of a range of stakeholders including potential users, railway undertakings, infrastructure managers Acknowledgement that the programme will challenge existing regional transport provision and will impact on current rail solutions employed Project Organizational Structure Project Oversight Program Steering Group (PSG) Project Facilitator Integrated Programme Organization (IPO) Business Objective Review/Audit Independent Review Group (IRG)

24 Implementation Road Map

25 Implementation Programme

26 Conclusions/Recommendations Demand: speed increases passenger and freight demand Capital Costs: length of alignment and speed increases capital cost (conventional v. HSR/VHSR) Land Costs: existing alignments increase land cost (especially in urban areas) Infrastructure Management: single infrastructure manager is recommended single implementation authority is recommended Operations Mixed train service increases operating revenues

27 Regional Cohesion Tallinn Tallinn Tallinn Tallinn 2 hrs 4.0 hrs Riga 4.5 hrs 1.5 hrs Riga Kaunas 10 hrs 3.0 hrs Riga Kaunas Warsaw 4 hrs Warsaw Riga Kaunas Berlin? EXISTING RAIL EXISTING ROAD BUSINESS AS USUAL RAIL BALTICA PH 1 RED OPTION NEW ALIGNMENT

28 Thank You

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