Indian Overseas Bank ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `73 `84. 1QFY2013 Result Update Banking

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1 1QFY2013 Result Update Banking August 1, 2012 Indian Overseas Bank Performance Highlights Particulars (` cr) 1QFY13 1QFY13 % chg (qoq) 1QFY12 % chg (yoy) NII 1,328 1,341 (0.9) 1, Preprov. profit 847 1,002 (15.5) PAT (55.9) Indian Overseas Bank reported moderate net profit growth of 13.5% yoy to `233cr during 1QFY2013. Despite subdued operating performance (operating profit growth of 5.5% yoy), earnings performance came on back of lower provisioning (decline of 4.5% yoy). Strong business growth; but asset quality remains under pressure: During 1QFY2013, the banks business momentum remained stronger than the system, with growth in advances and deposits coming at 24.5% and 22.3% yoy. CASA deposits growth rate stood at moderate 13.7% yoy, driven by 19.7% yoy growth in the current deposits and 12.0% yoy growth in Savings deposits. CASA ratio moderated to 25.6%. Sequentially, yield on funds dipped by 26bp to 9.8%. Cost of funds also declined by 4bp to 7.3%. Consequently, reported NIMs for the bank moderated by 15bp to 2.6%. Growth in noninterest income (excluding treasury) was moderate at 13.2% yoy on lower recoveries, though strong growth was reported in segments such as CEB and others. The bank s asset quality remained under pressure, with both gross and net NPA increasing sequentially by 23bp and 13bp, respectively to 3.0% and 1.5%, respectively. Slippages for the quarter (at `865cr; annualised slippage rate of 2.5%) were lower sequentially, however remained elevated considering average of `669cr since 1QFY2011. Major contribution to slippages came from sectors like agriculture, sugar, services excluding commercial real estate, infrastructure, textile, all engineering and other industries. PCR dipped by 57bp qoq to 67.1%. During 1QFY2013, the bank also restructured loans amounting to `834cr, majorly from sectors such as power, airways, textile, auto and auto ancillary, micro finance and other industries, thereby taking its outstanding restructured book to `13,368cr (~9.0% of total advances). Outlook and valuation: The bank had faced substantial asset quality issues in FY2010 due to which RoEs were depressed to 11.5%. From this low base, we expect RoEs to improve to 14.4% in FY2014, driven by 31.0% CAGR in earnings over FY201214E. However, we also remain wary of further incremental asset quality pressures that could arise due to bank s continued aggressive lending over the last few quarters. Although, the stock is trading at valuations of 0.5x FY2014E P/ABV, in our view upsides are limited from these levels considering the overhang on asset quality as well as the relatively low tieri capital adequacy. Hence, we recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `84. Key financials Y/E March (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E NII 4,208 5,016 5,702 6,754 % chg Net profit 1,073 1,050 1,333 1,803 % chg 51.7 (2.1) NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%) ACCUMULATE CMP Target Price Investment Period Stock Info Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1 `73 `84 12 Months Sector Banking Market Cap (` cr) 5,850 Beta Week High / Low 138/68 Avg. Daily Volume 121,351 Face Value (`) 10 BSE Sensex 17,257 Nifty 5,241 Reuters Code IOBK.BO Bloomberg Code Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 69.6 MF / Banks / Indian Fls 14.3 FII / NRIs / OCBs 3.6 Indian Public / Others 12.4 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex (0.4) (5.8) 10.1 IOB (16.0) (46.6) (16.2) Vaibhav Agrawal Ext: 6808 Varun Varma Ext: 6847 Sourabh Taparia Ext: 6872

2 Exhibit 1: 1QFY2013 performance Particulars (` cr) 1QFY13 4QFY12 % chg (qoq) 1QFY12 % chg (yoy) FY2012 FY2011 % chg (yoy) Interest earned 5,026 4, , ,897 12, on Advances / Bills 3,909 3, , ,590 8, on investments 1,035 1,050 (1.5) ,941 2, on balance with RBI & others (8.7) on others Interest Expended 3,698 3, , ,881 7, Net Interest Income 1,328 1,341 (0.9) 1, ,016 4, Other income (25.2) ,681 1, Other income excl. treasury (8.1) ,545 1, Fee Income (14.2) Treasury Income (25) 67 (136.6) (15) Recov. from written off a/cs (41.7) Others Operating income 1,705 1,844 (7.5) 1, ,697 5, Operating expenses ,163 2, Employee expenses ,083 1, Other Opex (11.2) , Preprovision Profit 847 1,002 (15.5) ,534 2, Provisions & Contingencies (4.5) 2,236 1, Provisions for NPAs (6.7) 1,470 1, Provisions for Investments 51 (64) 53 (3.9) ,596.2 Other Provisions (64.2) PBT (46.9) ,298 1,674 (22.5) Exceptional items 82 Provision for Tax (52.4) PAT (55.9) ,050 1,073 (2.1) Effective Tax Rate (%) bp bp (1196)bp Exhibit 2: Actual vs. Angel estimates Particulars (` cr) Actual Estimates Variation (%) NII 1,328 1,389 (4.4) NonInterest Income (5.3) Operating Income 1,705 1,787 (4.6) Operating Expenses PreProv. Profit (10.6) Provisions & Cont PBT (32.6) Prov. for Taxes (40.8) PAT (28.6) August 1,

3 Exhibit 3: 1QFY2013 performance Particulars (` cr) 1QFY13 4QFY12 % chg (qoq) 1QFY12 % chg (yoy) Advances (` cr) 148, , , Deposits (` cr) 184, , , CredittoDeposit Ratio (%) bp bp Current deposits (` cr) 10,985 12,287 (10.6) 9, Saving deposits (` cr) 36,370 34, , CASA deposits (` cr) 47,355 47, , CASA ratio (%) (81)bp 27.6 (195)bp CAR (%) (73)bp 13.4 (79)bp Tier 1 CAR (%) (43)bp bp Profitability Ratios (%) Cost of deposits bp bp Yield on advances (25)bp bp Yield on investments (8)bp 7.3 5bp Yield on funds (26)bp bp Cost of funds (4)bp bp Reported NIM (15)bp 2.9 (26)bp Costtoincome ratio bp bp Asset quality Gross NPAs (` cr) 4,410 3, , Gross NPAs (%) bp bp Net NPAs (` cr) 2,152 1, , Net NPAs (%) bp bp Provision Coverage Ratio (%) (57)bp 73.5 (639)bp Slippage ratio (%) (118)bp bp NPA to avg. assets (%) bp 1.0 (23)bp Business growth remains healthy; NIMs lower by 15bp qoq During 1QFY2013, the banks business momentum remained stronger than the system, with growth in advances and deposits coming at 24.5% and 22.3% yoy, respectively. Consequently, CD ratio for the bank improved to 80.2% in 1QFY2013 from 78.8% in 1QFY2012. Healthy growth in advances was aided by sharp 52.5% growth in overseas book (~20 percentage points would have been on account of positive impact of INR depreciation). Growth in domestic advances remained robust at 21.6% yoy. On the liability side, healthy growth in deposits was primarily driven by 26.5% yoy growth in term deposits. CASA deposits growth rate stood at moderate 13.7% yoy, driven by 19.7% yoy growth in the current deposits and 12.0% yoy growth in Savings deposits. Consequently, CASA ratio contracted by 195bp yoy and 81bp sequentially to 25.6% During the quarter, yield on advance came in lower by 25bp sequentially to 10.7%, which coupled with 8bp qoq decline in yield on investments to 7.3%, lead to a decline in yield on overall funds by 26bp qoq. Cost of funds also declined on a sequential basis by 4bp to 7.3%. Consequently, reported NIMs for the bank moderated sequentially by 15bp to 2.6%. August 1,

4 Exhibit 4: Business growth remain healthy Exhibit 5: CASA growth moderates Adv. yoy chg (%) Dep. yoy chg (%) CDR (%, RHS) CASA ratio CASA yoy growth (%, RHS) Exhibit 6: Sequentially, 26bp decline in yield on funds, exceeded... Exhibit 7:...the 4bp decline in cost of funds, NIMs down 15bps (%) Moderate growth in noninterest income on lower recoveries During 1QFY2013, growth in noninterest income (excluding treasury) was moderate at 13.2% yoy on lower recoveries, though segments such as CEB and others reported strong performance (growth of 28.9% and 48.2% yoy, respectively). Recoveries from written off account came in at `58cr as against `100cr in 1QFY2012. Net Loss in Treasury came in at `25cr compared to `15cr in 1QFY2012. Exhibit 8: Breakup of noninterest income Particulars (` cr) 1QFY13 4QFY12 % chg (qoq) 1QFY12 % chg (yoy) CEB (14.2) Treasury (25) 67 (136.6) (15) 61.6 Recoveries from writtenoff a/c (41.7) Others Other income (25.3) Other income excl. treasury (8.2) August 1,

5 Asset quality remain under pressure On the asset quality front, the bank witnessed continued pressure, with both gross and net NPA increasing on an absolute basis, by 12.1% and 12.5% qoq, respectively. Both gross and net NPA ratios were higher sequentially by 23bp and 13bp, respectively to 3.0% and 1.5%, respectively. Slippages for the quarter (at `865cr; annualised slippage rate of 2.5%) were lower sequentially, however remained elevated considering average of `669cr since 1QFY2011 Major contribution to slippages came from sectors like agriculture (`212cr), sugar (`165cr), services excluding commercial real estate (`141cr), infrastructure (`40cr), textile (`29cr), all engineering and other industries (`145cr). PCR (incl. technical writeoff) dipped by 57bp qoq to 67.1%. In addition to this, the bank restructured loans amounting to `834cr during the quarter, taking the outstanding restructured book to `13,368cr (~9.0% of total advances). Major restructuring during the quarter came from sectors such as power, airways, textile, auto and auto ancillary, micro finance and other industries. Exhibit 9: Slippage ratio remained elevated Exhibit 10: Asset quality deteriorated sequentially Slippages (%) Credit cost (%, RHS) Gross NPAs (%) Net NPAs (%) PCR (%, RHS) Tier1 CAR relatively low 7.9% The bank s tier1 capital adequacy ratio stood relatively low at 7.9% due to aggressive growth, inspite of 29% dilution already witnessed in FY2012 (raised a substantial `1,783cr 2.2% of the preissue networth). The bank may require further dilution sooner than peers, if current growth persists, at bookdilutive valuations. Investment arguments Pace in business, but with its share of pain The pace of business growth for the bank, which had picked up since 2HFY2011, continued even in 1QFY2013, despite of domestic macro headwinds. Going by management s indication, growth momentum is likely to continue in remaining period of FY2013 as well. The strong momentum witnessed in advances as well as deposits since 4QFY2011 has been marred by high slippages. Gross annualized slippage rate has remained elevated at 2.5% during the quarter, compared to a trend of 1.5% (excl. system driven NPAs), 2.5% and 3.6% in 2QFY2012, 3QFY2012 and 4QFY2012, respectively. In addition, the banks restructured book has more than doubled in the past one year. August 1,

6 Outlook and valuation The bank had faced substantial asset quality issues in FY2010 due to which RoEs were depressed to 11.5%. From this low base, we expect RoEs to improve to 14.4% in FY2014, driven by 31.0% CAGR in earnings over FY201214E. However, we also remain wary of further incremental asset quality pressures that could arise due to bank s continued aggressive lending over the last few quarters. Although, the stock is trading at valuations of 0.5x FY2014E P/ABV, in our view upsides are limited from these levels considering the overhang on asset quality as well as the relatively low tieri capital adequacy. Hence, we recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `84. Exhibit 11: Key assumptions Particulars (%) Earlier estimates Revised estimates FY2013 FY2014 FY2013 FY2014 Credit growth Deposit growth CASA ratio NIMs Other income growth Growth in staff expenses Growth in other expenses Slippages Source: Angel Research Exhibit 12: Change in estimates FY2013 FY2014 Particulars (` cr) Earlier Revised Earlier Revised Var. (%) Var. (%) estimates estimates estimates estimates NII 5,849 5,702 (2.5) 6,746 6, Noninterest income 1,730 1, ,916 1, Operating income 7,578 7,473 (1.4) 8,662 8, Operating expenses 3,574 3, ,039 4,039 (0.0) Preprov. profit 4,004 3,867 (3.4) 4,623 4, Provisions & cont. 1,971 2, ,964 2, PBT 2,033 1,864 (8.3) 2,659 2, Prov. for taxes (19.4) PAT 1,373 1,333 (2.9) 1,796 1, Source: Angel Research August 1,

7 Exhibit 13: P/ABV band 350 Price (`) 0.4x 0.8x 1.2x 1.6x 2x Apr06 Oct06 Apr07 Oct07 Apr08 Oct08 Apr09 Oct09 Apr10 Oct10 Apr11 Oct11 Apr12 Oct12 Source: Company; Angel Research August 1,

8 Exhibit 14: Recommendation summary Company Reco. CMP (`) Tgt. price (`) Upside (%) FY2014E P/ABV (x) FY2014E Tgt. P/ABV (x) FY2014E P/E (x) FY201214E EPS CAGR (%) FY2014E RoA (%) FY2014E RoE (%) AxisBk Buy 1,046 1, FedBk Neutral HDFCBk Neutral ICICIBk* Buy 959 1, SIB Neutral YesBk Buy AllBk Accumulate AndhBk Neutral BOB Buy BOI Buy BOM Neutral CanBk Accumulate CentBk Neutral CorpBk Buy DenaBk Buy IDBI# Buy IndBk Accumulate IOB Accumulate J&KBk Neutral OBC Buy PNB Buy SBI* Buy 2,033 2, SynBk Accumulate UcoBk Neutral UnionBk Buy UtdBk Buy VijBk Neutral ; Note:*Target multiples=sotp Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), # Without adjusting for SASF Company background Indian Overseas Bank is a midsize PSU bank with a balance sheet size of ~`2.2lakh cr. The bank has a network of 2,000+ domestic branches and over 1,500 ATMs, mainly concentrated in the southern states (~59%), with majority being in the parent state of Tamil Nadu (~38%). The bank has a sizeable presence overseas, with over 12% of its advances coming from overseas branches. August 1,

9 Income statement Y/E March (` cr) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Net Interest Income 2,870 3,114 4,208 5,016 5,702 6,754 YoY Growth (%) Other Income 1,713 1,197 1,225 1,681 1,770 1,978 YoY Growth (%) 59.3 (30.2) Operating Income 4,583 4,311 5,433 6,697 7,473 8,732 YoY Growth (%) 22.0 (5.9) Operating Expenses 1,942 2,466 2,573 3,163 3,606 4,039 YoY Growth (%) Pre Provision Profit 2,641 1,845 2,861 3,534 3,867 4,694 YoY Growth (%) 16.4 (30.2) Prov. & Cont ,268 2,236 2,003 2,026 YoY Growth (%) (10.5) 1.1 Profit Before Tax 1, ,592 1,298 1,864 2,668 YoY Growth (%) 18.1 (49.9) 62.7 (18.5) Prov. for Taxation as a % of PBT PAT 1, ,073 1,050 1,333 1,803 YoY Growth (%) 10.3 (46.7) 51.7 (2.1) Balance sheet Y/E March (` cr) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Share Capital Reserves & Surplus 6,606 6,980 8,706 11,131 12,186 13,618 Deposits 100, , , , , ,135 Growth (%) Borrowings 6,548 4,111 12,517 16,812 20,745 23,813 Tier 2 Capital 3,946 4,871 6,838 6,802 8,027 9,150 Other Liab. & Prov. 3,312 3,795 4,875 5,673 6,878 8,000 Total Liabilities 121, , , , , ,513 Cash Balances 5,940 7,666 10,011 10,199 8,422 9,685 Bank Balances 4,981 2,158 2,008 6,062 7,153 8,211 Investments 31,215 37,651 48,610 55,566 69,242 80,841 Advances 74,885 79, , , , ,303 Growth (%) Fixed Assets 1,710 1,700 1,681 1,744 1,996 2,223 Other Assets 2,341 2,918 4,641 5,353 6,316 7,250 Total Assets 121, , , , , ,513 Growth (%) August 1,

10 Ratio analysis Y/E March FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov./Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis (%) NII () Prov. Exp Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc Other Inc Op. Inc Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage (x) RoE August 1,

11 Research Team Tel: Website: DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Disclosure of Interest Statement Indian Overseas Bank 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (5 to 5%) Reduce (5% to 15%) Sell (< 15%) August 1,

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