THE PLANNING INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA

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1 Per Cent I A s ly N F L 6 May 2016 Report A 1.0 T 0.5 I -0.5 O N Prepared -1.0 By: The Economic Planning, Research & Policy Logistics Division THE PLANNING INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA

2 Per Cent Introduction Figure I: ly Inflation, May May The All Jamaica All Divisions Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded inflation of 0.2 per cent for May 2016 (Table I and Figure I), the first increase for the calendar year. Deflation of 0.4 per cent and inflation of 0.5 per cent were registered for April 2016 and May 2015, respectively. Inflation for the review month was due mainly to the higher costs for transportation and electricity, which were associated with an increase in international crude oil prices. Recent Trends The upward movement in the index during the review month resulted in the following trend rates: 6-month mean of -0.2 per cent, similar to the out-turn for April 2016 (Figure II). 2

3 Per Cent Per Cent 1.0 Figure II Six- Trend Rates, May May High 6- Mean 6- Low The 12-month point-to-point inflation was 2.1 per cent compared with 2.4 per cent for April The 12-month average 1 inflation was 3.1 per cent relative to 3.2 per cent for the previous month (Figure III). 8.0 Figure III 12- Trend Rates, May May PT-PT 12- Average Calendar year-to-date deflation of 1.4 per cent relative to inflation of 0.1 per cent for the corresponding period of 2015 (Figure IV and see Table I). 1 This is a moving average denoting the percentage change between the arithmetic mean of the monthly indices for a year and the arithmetic mean of the monthly indices for the previous year. 3

4 Per Cent Per Cent 4.0 Figure IV Calendar Year-to-Date Inflation Fiscal Year (FY) 2016/17-to-Date deflation of 0.1 per cent compared with inflation of 0.7 per cent for the comparable period of FY2015/16 (Figure V). 6.0 Figure V Fiscal Year-to-Date Inflation FY 2015/16 FY 2016/17 Table I: INFLATION (+)/DEFLATION (-) OUT-TURN Period ly Calendar Year-to-Date Period Fiscal Year-to-Date / / / / Source: Calculated from data supplied by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica 4

5 ANALYSIS OF INFLATION FOR MAY 2016 Composition of Price Changes The higher All Jamaica CPI resulted from increases in the indices of nine of the 12 divisions (Table II). The Transport and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels divisions accounted for approximately 68.0 per cent of the inflation out-turn during the review month. Core inflation 2 was 4 per cent relative to 1 per cent for April The depreciation in the exchange rate impacted the prices of most items in the basket of goods and services used to calculate the CPI. The Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages division registered an increase of 0.1 per cent in its index. The division s out-turn for the review month resulted from increases of 0.1 per cent and 0.3 per cent in the indices for Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, respectively. The increase in the Food index resulted primarily from the higher sub-indices for Meat, Fish & Seafood and Starchy Foods, with each increasing by 0.2 per cent. The higher cost for fish and seafood was due to the increased prices for petrol used in fishing boats. The higher prices for starchy foods were attributed to market correction, as the glut that existed earlier in the year has now ended. Notably, the prices of green banana and yellow yam increased. In contrast, there was a decline of 0.2 per cent in the Vegetable sub-index. The reduced cost for vegetables continued to reflect increased supply on the domestic market. The higher index for Non-Alcoholic Beverages emanated from increases of 0.1 per cent and 0.3 per cent in the sub-indices for Coffee, Tea & Cocoa and Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit & Vegetable Juices, respectively. The index for the division Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco rose by 0.1 per cent. The higher prices for spirits and wines accounted for the movement in this division. The Clothing & Footwear division recorded an increase of 0.3 per cent in its index (see Table II). This upward movement was influenced by respective increases of 0.2 per cent and 0.4 per cent in the indices for Clothing and Footwear. 2 This measure excludes the food and fuel components from the Consumer Price Index. 5

6 The index for Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels rose by 0.6 per cent, the first increase since November This was due mainly to an increase of 1.6 per cent in the index for Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels. This increase reflected the impact of higher global crude oil prices during April Conversely, the index for Water Supply & Miscellaneous Services Relating to the Dwelling decreased by 1.4 per cent. Table II: INFLATION AND CONTRIBUTION TO INFLATION BY CPI DIVISION May 2016 Percentage Contribution, May 2016 Percentage Point Contribution, May 2016 April 2016 May 2015 ALL DIVISIONS FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENANCE HEALTH TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES Source: Calculated from data supplied by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica The Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance division recorded an increase of 0.3 per cent. The upward movement in the index for the group Goods & Services for Routine Household Maintenance (up 0.3 per cent) was the largest contributor. 3 WTI crude oil prices averaged US$40.96 per barrel in April 2016 compared with an average of US$37.77 per barrel in March

7 There was a 0.1 per cent increase in the index for the Health division. This upturn was influenced by an increase of 0.2 per cent in the index for Medical Products, Appliances & Equipment, as the index for Health Services was unchanged. The index for the Transport division rose by 0.8 per cent. This was attributed to the higher costs of petrol and air transport, which were associated with an increase in world crude oil prices. The increase in world crude oil prices was attributed primarily to supply disruptions in Canada and Nigeria. In particular, wildfires in Alberta s oil sands and the attack of a major gas pipeline in the Niger Delta region by militants resulted in supply outages. The Recreation & Culture division increased by 0.1 per cent (see Table II). This increase reflected the higher cost for computers and computer accessories. The Miscellaneous Goods & Services division registered an increase of 0.2 per cent in its index. This increase was associated mainly with the higher cost of items used for personal care and personal effects. The indices for Communication; Restaurants & Accommodation Services; and Education remained unchanged. Regional Composition of Price Changes All regions recorded increases in their indices during the review month (Table III). The index for the Greater Kingston Metropolitan Area (GKMA) rose by 0.2 per cent and the indices for Other Urban Centres (OUC) and Rural Areas (RA) both increased by 0.3 per cent. For all regions, the Transport and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels divisions were the main contributors to the inflation out-turns. 7

8 Table III: REGIONAL CPI AND DEFLATION CPI Inflation (%) May 16 May 16 April 16 All Jamaica GKMA OUC RA Source: Calculated from data supplied by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica OUTLOOK Inflation is forecast during the short term due to expected increases in crude oil and corn prices 4 on the international market; the implementation of revenue enhancement measures (see Box 1), which are anticipated to impact the June CPI; and higher chicken prices and electricity tariff rates on the local market. Inflation is expected to be partly countered by the lower prices of wheat and rice on the world market. The Meteorological Service of Jamaica predicted near-normal to above-normal rainfall for the country from June to August The Energy Information Administration s Short Term Energy Outlook report published in June 2016 reported that crude oil prices are expected to increase. This increase reflects increasing global supply disruptions, rising oil demand and ongoing declines in crude oil production and rig count in the USA. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) 6 reported that the season-average farm price for corn is expected to increase due to an estimated decline in ending stocks for the USA. The projected decline in ending stocks is attributed to an increase in exports, which is associated with improved competitiveness of the USA s corn due to reduced production in Brazil and harvest delays in Argentina. Global ending stocks are projected lower as the reduction in the USA offset higher inventories for other countries. 4 WTI crude oil prices averaged US$48.78 per barrel in June 2016 compared with an average of US$46.73 per barrel in May Information published in the Preliminary ly Rainfall Summary for May The USDA publishes a monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. This report was released on June 10,

9 The Jamaica Broilers Group announced an increase in prices for its chicken products in June The Office of Utilities Regulation granted an average tariff increase of 2.6 per cent to the sole distributor of electricity effective July 5, Both measures are expected to have an impact on domestic prices in June and July, respectively. The season-average farm price for wheat is expected to decrease according to the USDA. Wheat supplies in the USA are projected on increases in beginning stocks and production. Hard Red Winter wheat production is estimated to increase due to excellent growing conditions during spring. Global supplies are projected higher with the EU, Russia and the USA accounting for the increase. According to the USDA, the season-average price for rice is projected to decline as ending stocks are the largest since the mid-1980s. Notwithstanding this, ending stocks in the USA are projected to decline as a result of an increase in exports. World supplies are estimated higher due primarily to increased production in India. 9

10 Box 1 On May 12, 2016, the Minister of Finance and Public Service presented to parliament budgeted expenditure and revenue of $502.4 billion and $484.8 million, respectively, for FY2016/17. The budget for FY2016/17 coincides with the fourth and final year of the Extended Fund Facility arrangement between the GOJ and the IMF. The FY2016/17 fiscal programme is crafted to be consistent with the objectives of the Economic Reform Programme. The focus will be on strategies geared toward achieving the primary surplus of 7.0 per cent of GDP, which represents the operational instrument utilized to attain the objective of public debt of 96.0 per cent of GDP by the end of FY2019/20. A list of measures that are expected to have an impact on the CPI basket of goods and services is outlined in Table V. Table V Revenue Enhancement Measures Increase in the Special Consumption Tax (SCT) charged per stick of cigarette and cigar to $14.00 from $12.00 All Jamaica All Divisions CPI to be Effective Date for Impacted Implementation Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco May 13, 2016 Increase in the SCT rates on petrol (E10 87, E10 90, Diesel, Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel) by $7.00 per litre Transport May 13, 2016 Increase in the Departure Tax to US$35.00 from approximately US$14.53 Transport June 1, 2016 For LNG, introduction of: SCT of $4.56 per mmbtu and an Ad Valorem SCT of 3.5 per cent; for Heavy Fuel Oil, increase in the SCT to $ per litre from $ per litre and introduction of an Ad Valorem SCT of per cent Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels May 13,

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