Fiscal discipline and decentralization: the case of Germany The Länder view

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1 Fiscal discipline and decentralization: the case of Germany The Länder view July 10 th, 2008 Klaus Feiler Budget and Fiscal Policy Department City State of Berlin Fiscal discipline and decentralization - July 2008 Sheet 1

2 Fiscal discipline and decentralization: the case of Germany The Länder view Germany: A political and financial survey Federalism and finance a couple in constant trouble The federalism reform New rules to limit public debt The Länder point of view Demographic trends and their impact on public finance Current stage of proceedings in the Federalism Reform Commission Fiscal discipline and decentralization - July 2008 Sheet 2

3 Senatsverwaltung für für Finanzen Map of Germany Schleswig-Holstein Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Bremen Hamburg Niedersachsen Brandenburg Berlin Nordrhein-Westfalen Sachsen-Anhalt Hessen Thüringen Sachsen Rheinland-Pfalz Saarland Baden-Württemberg Bayern nach Bereinigte Ausgaben je Hoop 6 659,1 bis 6 659,1 (1) 3 196,6 bis 6 659,1 (1) Fiscal discipline and decentralization - July 2008 Sheet 3

4 General government expenditures and debt in Germany 1,000 bill Expenditure 2006 Debt level 2006 (e.o.y.) Federal government Länder Local governments July Provisional data, partly estimated Fiscal discipline and decentralization - July 2008 Sheet 4

5 Net lending (+) / net borrowing (-) per capita 2007 Sachsen 461 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 230 Bayern 205 Brandenburg 181 Baden-Württemberg 139 Thüringen 91 Sachsen-Anhalt BERLIN Nordrhein-Westfalen -56 Niedersachsen -82 Hessen Rheinland-Pfalz Schleswig-Holstein Hamburg Saarland Bremen -1, Western area states 12 July per capita. Statistisches Bundesamt (Federal Statistical Office) Fiscal discipline and decentralization - July 2008 Sheet 5

6 Debt level per capita 2007 Bremen BERLIN 17,656 21, 770 Hamburg 12,435 Saarland 9,776 Sachsen-Anhalt 9,526 Schleswig-Holstein 8,892 Thüringen 7,956 Nordrhein-Westfalen 7,812 Rheinland-Pfalz 7,655 Brandenburg 7,481 Niedersachsen Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Hessen Baden-Württemberg Sachsen Bayern 3,544 3,134 4,640 7,264 7,276 6,539 Western area states 6,227 July per capita. Statistisches Bundesamt (Federal Statistical Office) Fiscal discipline and decentralization - July 2008 Sheet 6

7 Interest obligations as a share of public expenditures 2007 Baden-Württemberg Bayern Brandenburg Hessen Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Niedersachsen Nordrhein-Westfalen Rheinland-Pfalz Saarland Sachsen Sachsen-Anhalt Schleswig-Holstein Thüringen 3.2% 3.7% 5.2% 7.4% 6.9% 7.0% 8.5% 8.1% 8.7% 7.7% 9.3% 8.9% 11.2% Berlin Bremen Hamburg all Länder Federal government 7.2% 9.9% 11.9% 13.2% 14.2% July Provisional data. Statistisches Bundesamt (Federal Statistical Office) Fiscal discipline and decentralization - July 2008 Sheet 7

8 Debt 900,000level of Federal government, Länder, and local governments 902, , , ,000 Bund *) 500, , ,000 Länder 300, , , , ,906 Gemeinden 55,000 58,505 81,710 34, July mill. Statistisches Bundesamt (Federal Statistical Office) provisional data, partly estimated. *) incl. assumptions of debt by the Federal government (1980, 1999, und 2005 ) and singular revenues (UMTS 2000). Fiscal discipline and decentralization - July 2008 Sheet 8

9 Senatsverwaltung für für Finanzen Balanced budgets and debt repayment beginning in latest 2011 later than 2019 Bremen Schleswig-Holstein Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Hamburg Brandenburg Niedersachsen Berlin Nordrhein-Westfalen Sachsen-Anhalt Hessen Thüringen Sachsen Rheinland-Pfalz Saarland Baden-Württemberg Bayern July States financial departments nach Bereinigte Ausgaben je Hoop 6 659,1 bis 6 659,1 (1) 3 196,6 bis 6 659,1 (1) Fiscal discipline and decentralization - July 2008 Sheet 9

10 Berlin s financial surpluses / deficits , ,000-2,000 Line of balanced budget ,618-1,890-1,270-1,799-1, ,000-4,000-5,000-6,000-3,434-4,089-5,476-5,513-2,606 BERLIN -2,553-4,412-4,869-5,242-2,970-3,164 July mill to 2006 actual results, 2007 provisional data, 2008 ff. budget plan Fiscal discipline and decentralization - July 2008 Sheet 10

11 Overall tax ratio Average 1950 to 1991 = Average 1991 to 2012 = July Ratio of overall tax receipts to GDP (percentage) ff. estimated data. Fiscal discipline and decentralization - July 2008 Sheet 11

12 Total fertility rates (TFR) in Germany an other European countries Spain Italy Czech Republic Poland Germany From 1970 to 1990 Western Germany, from 1991 on Germany July Statistisches Bundesamt (Federal Statistical Office) Fiscal discipline and decentralization - July 2008 Sheet 12

13 Demographic trends in Germany, Mio 82,6 82,0 80,0 78,0 79,8 80,1 76,0 75,4 74,0 72,0 70,0 68, ,7 July Statistisches Bundesamt (Federal Statistical Office) : actual data (e.o.y.); 2007: provisional data; projection (medium level of extrapolation concerning TFR (1,4), life expectancy, and migration balance (+100,000 p.y.). Fiscal discipline and decentralization - July 2008 Sheet 13

14 Demographic trends in different parts of Germany = City states Area states (West) Germany overall Area states (East) July Statistisches Bundesamt (Federal Statistical Office), projection (medium level of extrapolation) Fiscal discipline and decentralization - July 2008 Sheet 14

15 Development of GDP, 1990 to 2030 (in constant prices) 2,277 2,391 2,450 2,449 2,394 2,327 GDP in prices of 2000 (in bill ) 2,063 1,675 1, July Forecasting calculation, based on the assumption that the GDP will develop according to the age bracket Fiscal discipline and decentralization - July 2008 Sheet 15

16 Age-specific expenditures profile* Federal government Local governments 8 Länder age / years July Expenditures per capita (virtual figures). H. Seitz, Demographieabhängigkeit der Ausgaben und Einnahmen der öffentlichen Haushalte, Dresden 2007 *) Schematical illustration of public expenditures per capita depending on age structure Fiscal discipline and decentralization - July 2008 Sheet 16

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