Strengthening Fundamentals Fueling Investment Activity

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1 Research & Forecast Report GREATER PHOENIX MULTIFAMILY 2 Strengthening Fundamentals Fueling Investment Activity Key Takeaways > > Multifamily conditions improved in Greater Phoenix during the third quarter, even as builders continued to deliver new units to the market. declines have been widespread throughout the metro area and rents are on the rise across all submarkets and property classes. > > The strong fundamentals in the market are fueling investment performance. Transaction activity is up, prices are on the rise and cap rates have compressed. > > While conditions are the strongest in recent memory, the immediate outlook calls for additional improvement. Employment growth in Greater Phoenix is forecast to gain momentum in 216, and renting will remain a preferred option for a large segment of the local population. will likely level off, but rents should continue to rise. Market Indicators Relative to prior period Transaction Activity Price Per Unit Cap Rates Market 2 Market 2 Greater Phoenix Multifamily Market The Greater Phoenix multifamily market continues to forge ahead, with renter demand strong enough to drive vacancy lower even as new units come online. While additions to supply will continue for at least a few more quarters, renter demand should receive an added boost over the next -24 months, as employment growth is forecast to accelerate. Employers are expected to be particularly active in the sectors where incomes are most closely aligned with renting. This trend has already begun to materialize, with the retail, leisure and hospitality and construction sectors all expanding at healthy rates of growth. Summary Statistics Phoenix Market Rate 5. Change from 2 (bps) -7 Asking Per Month $867 Change from 2 7. Median Sales Price Per Unit (YTD) $76, Average Cap Rate 5. The strong operating climate is fueling investor demand for multifamily properties and driving prices higher. This year will mark the most active investment climate in nearly a decade, and this intense demand

2 Greater Phoenix Multifamily Market (continued) is driving prices higher and causing cap rates to compress. While there are some concerns that the market could potentially become overheated, the underlying fundamentals should continue to improve as vacancy remains well-below the market s long-term average and transitioning to homeownership will be difficult for current renters. These improving property cash flows should offset much of the risk associated with rising prices and compressing cap rates. SUBMARKET STATISTICS Submarket Name 2 Annual Change (BPS) 2 2 Annual Rent Change (%) S Paradise Valley 4.5% 6.1% (16) $726 $638. Gilbert/Superstition Springs (6) $897 $823 9.% S Gilbert/Queen Creek % (3) $985 $91 9.3% Central City/Sky Harbor 4.7% 5. (7) $1,286 $1,22 7.% Ahwatukee Foothills 4.7% 6.7% (2) $958 $ % Deer Valley/N Peoria % () $938 $ S Tempe 4.9% 5.3% (4) $972 $ % S Scottsdale 4.9% 4.5% 4 $1,12 $1, 1. Chandler 5.1% 5. (1) $982 $98 8.1% N Mesa % (1) $734 $ % Union Hills/Cave Creek 5.3% 6.7% () $835 $87 3.5% Goodyear/Avondale 5.3% 5. (3) $869 $ S Mesa 5.3% 6.9% (16) $778 $ % S Phoenix/Laveen 5.3% 5.9% (6) $875 $ % E Mesa/Apache Junction 5.5% 6.9% () $846 $88 4.7% N Paradise Valley 5.7% 7.% () $1,1 $ % N Scottsdale/Fountain Hills 5.7% 5.3% 4 $1,84 $1,25 5. North Mountain 5.7% 5.7% - $793 $748 6.% Maryvale/Estrella % (21) $67 $ E Central Phoenix 5.9% 6.1% (2) $831 $ % Peoria/Sun City 6.% 6. (2) $872 $ % NW Black Canyon $734 $686 7.% Glendale 6.5% 8.9% (24) $659 $ N Tempe 6.5% 5. $1,33 $ % Metrocenter 7.% 7.3% (3) $673 $ % W Central Phoenix 7.5% 6.3% $584 $ Central Phoenix/Encanto 7.9% 8. (9) $1,22 $ % N Central Phoenix/Alhambra 8.3% 11. (31) $863 $87 6.9% Central Black Canyon 8.7% 1.% () $589 $ % NE Central Phoenix 9.5% $1,55 $ Greater Phoenix Research & Forecast Report 2 Multifamily Colliers International

3 Employment: Employment Overview > > After a fairly modest start to the year, employment in Greater Phoenix gained momentum in the third quarter. Over the past months, total local employment has expanded by 2.5 percent with the addition of 46,2 jobs. > > The construction sector is beginning to bounce back. Year over year, construction employment has expanded by 8.7 percent, with the addition of 8,2 jobs. The construction sector was the hardest-hit segment of the economy during the recession, but with residential and commercial projects moving through the development pipeline, additional job gains are forecast in the years ahead. > > Attracting companies from California is a source of growth in the Greater Phoenix market. Recently, the California-based company Ring, announced plans to expand in the Scottsdale Airpark with the addition of 2 workers. At least a dozen California-based companies are looking to expand in Greater Phoenix Number of Jobs 3% 1% % Year-over-Year Employment Change Construction: > > Multifamily developers remain quite active, bringing more than 4, apartment units to the Greater Phoenix market thus far in 2, with at least another 2, units set to come online before the end of this year. > > Nearly half of the apartments delivered thus far in 2 have been located in just two submarkets. Developers have completed a combined 2, units in the North Tempe and North Scottsdale submarkets year to date, after more than 1, new units came online in these areas in 2. > > The pace of new construction is likely to peak in 2, with permitting for multifamily units slowing. Year to date, fewer than 5, permits for multifamily units have been pulled, 32 percent fewer than at the same point in 2 Construction Trends: Major Submarkets Units Comple ons 2-2 Under Construc on 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 : Quarterly Trends > > Apartment vacancy in Greater Phoenix ended the third quarter at 5.8 percent, 7 basis points lower than one year ago and the second-lowest figure in the past decade. has averaged just 6. percent over the past year, compared to an average of 6.8 percent in the preceding -month period. > > No submarkets in Greater Phoenix have vacancy rates at 1 percent or higher, and only three submarkets have vacancy rates above 8 percent. Historical vacancy for the Phoenix metro as a whole has been between 8 percent and 1 percent. This highlights the strengthening that has been recorded throughout the Phoenix metro area. Rate 9.5% 9.% 8.5% 8.% 7.5% 7.% 6.5% 6.% 5.5% 5.% > > Many areas throughout the Valley are experiencing vacancy rates at or below 5 percent. Outlying submarkets including Gilbert/ Superstition Springs and Ahwatukee Foothills as well as more centrally located submarkets such as South Tempe and South Scottsdale all have sub-5 percent vacancy rates. 3 Greater Phoenix Research & Forecast Report 2 Multifamily Colliers International

4 : > > Landlords are leveraging low vacancy conditions to push rents higher. Average asking rents rose 2 percent in the third quarter to $867 per month, the fourth straight quarter of growth in excess of 1 percent. Over the past year, asking rents have spiked 7.4 percent. > > Every submarket in Greater Phoenix has recorded year-over-year asking rent increases, and more than 9 percent of submarkets have posted gains in excess of 4 percent. The strongest rent growth has been recorded in Central Phoenix and in the Southeast Valley. > > Rent increases are becoming more widespread across the market. After rent increases were concentrated in Class A buildings in the earliest stages of the recovery, Class B asking rents have increased 7.5 percent in the past year to $87 per month. Investment Trends: > > Sales of apartment buildings continued to trend higher, rising 7 percent in the third quarter. Year to date, sales velocity is up percent from the same period in 2. The Greater Phoenix multifamily market currently is on pace for the greatest level of transaction activity since > > The median price spiked 34 percent higher from the second quarter to the third quarter, reaching $82,5 per unit. Year to date, the median price is $76, per unit, compared to $7,4 per unit in 2. > > Cap rates ticked slightly lower in the third quarter, and the average cap rate for all transactions thus far in 2 remained is down to approximately 5.6 percent. Cap rate compression is being driven by healthy investor demand for multifamily assets as well as strengthening property fundamentals. In 2, the average cap rate was just under 6 percent. Quarterly Rent Trends Asking Rent per Month $88 $86 $84 $82 $8 $78 $76 $74 $72 $7 Investment Trends Median Price per Unit (s) $ $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Per Month Per SF YTD Price per Unit Cap Rate $1.4 $1.2 $1. $.98 $.96 $.94 $.92 $.9 $.88 $.86 7% 5% Average Cap Rate Asking Rent per SF Recent Transactions in the Market MULTIFAMILY SALES ACTIVITY Property Name Street Address Units Sales Price Price per Unit Deer Valley Village 31 W Yorkshire Dr., Phoenix 832 $1,5, $,793 Element 1994 N 23rd Ave., Phoenix 629 $66,3, $15,45 Elevate at Desert Ridge 21 N Tatum Blvd., Phoenix 342 $52,, $2,47 Villas at Cave Creek 2529 W Cactus Rd., Phoenix 696 $43,, $61,997 Ocotillo Bay 1889 W Queen Creek Rd., Chandler 296 $39,25, $2,61 Huntington Apartments 4 S Mill Ave., Tempe 442 $34,6, $78,281 4 Greater Phoenix Research & Forecast Report 2 Multifamily Colliers International

5 Outlook: The Greater Phoenix multifamily market is firmly positioned in an expansion mode. This expansion will continue throughout the remainder of this year and through 216, as the local economy is forecast to grow at a healthy clip and homeownership will remain out of the reach of a large share of current renters. With renter demand forecast to accelerate and additions to supply on pace to moderate in 216, metrowide vacancy should remain at or near cyclical lows. These conditions will continue to support healthy rent increases and concession burn, particularly with vacancies tight throughout the metro area s submarkets. The local investment environment is expected to remain active, with Employment Forecast demand supported by strong fundamentals that are being reinforced by ongoing gains quarter after quarter. The potential of rising interest rates could present a bit of a speed bump in the market, but most indications are that any Federal Reserve action would likely be modest in nature, given the current low-inflation environment and the global instability outside the United States. New projects could provide a boost to sales velocity in the area in the coming quarters; thus far in 2, projects that are less than two years old have accounted for nearly 1 percent of total activity. As more apartment complexes are delivered, there could be an additional wave of highdollar sales comps in the market. Rent Forecast 8, 4.% $95 1% 7, 3.5% $9 Net Employment Change 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.% Year-over-Year Change Average Asking Rent $85 $8 $75 Year-over-Year Rent Change 1,.5% $7 % * 216*.% $ * 216* - Jobs Gained/Lost Asking Construction and Permitting Forecast Forecast Permits/Units 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Rate % 1% * 216* MF Permits Comple ons % * 216* FOR MORE INFORMATION Bob Mulhern Managing Director Greater Phoenix Jim Keeley SIOR Founding Partner Scottsdale Office Pete O Neil Research Director Greater Phoenix Copyright 2 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Colliers International Greater Phoenix 239 E. Camelback Road, Suite 1 Phoenix, AZ colliers.com/greaterphoenix 5 North American Research & Forecast Report Q4 2 Office Market Outlook Colliers International

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