Atlantic Canada s Economic Outlook & Key Trends

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1 Atlantic Canada s Economic Outlook & Key Trends prepared for KPMG Spring Economic Outlook MONCTON, NB May 13, 2015 Halifax 3 November, 2014

2 Presentation Outline 2015 Economic Outlook: Oil Price Impacts Key Trends: Demographics Key Trends: Consumer Debt Key Trends: Fiscal Realities Key Trends: Major Project Investment Key Trends: Manufacturing Exports

3 Presentation Outline 2015 Economic Outlook: Oil Price Impacts Key Trends: Demographics Key Trends: Consumer Debt Key Trends: Fiscal Realities Key Trends: Major Project Investment Key Trends: Manufacturing Exports

4 Have We Moved Ahead Since 2008? CA PE NL NS NB GDP (constant dollars)... Employment (000s).. Unemployment rate (%) Housing starts (units).. Retail sales* ($).... Non-energy exports ($)... Source: Statistics Canada, APEC * constant dollars, excluding gasoline

5 Global Economic Growth Keeps Falling Short of Expectations 6 Real GDP growth, world economy (%) 2015 Forecast 5 4 Actual Forecast* Canada: 2.2% US: 3.1% 3 Eurozone: 1.5% 2 Japan: 1.0% F China: 6.8% India: 7.5% Source: IMF World Economic Outlook * As of Sep/Oct prior year

6 Is Growth Failing Again in 2015? Scotiabank Global Forecast Update There is little evidence of a more synchronized and broader economic revival underway around the world. The negative effects of lower oil prices hit the economy right away, and the various positives will arrive only gradually, and are of uncertain size. Governor of the Bank of Canada So far, emerging markets have been even weaker than expected (with first quarter real GDP growth across [emerging markets] likely clocking in at its slowest pace since 2009) weakness in the first quarter also extended to America. TD Economics

7 The Fall Out from Lower Oil Prices Oil prices DOWN 58% since June 2014 Oil & gas investment DOWN 30% in 2015 NL royalties DOWN 40%, 2013/14 to 2015/16 Outmigration DOWN 26%, Q2 to Q Atlantic fuel costs DOWN 24% in 2015 Overnight rate DOWN 0.25 percentage points Canadian dollar DOWN 12% since June 2014 Source: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, BMO, APEC

8 Newfoundland & Labrador Facing 5 Lean Years Annual real GDP Growth, Newfoundland and Labrador (%) Forecast F 2017F 2019F Newfoundland and Labrador could see 5 consecutive years of falling output. Nominal GDP forecast to decline 6% in Source: Statistics Canada, NL Department of Finance

9 Energy Dependence Affects Changes in Business Confidence CFIB Business Barometer Apr-14 Apr-15 CA NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC Nationally, small business confidence has fallen. But confidence has improved in oilconsuming provinces (e.g., PEI) and fallen in oilproducing provinces (e.g., NL). Source: Canadian Federation of Independent Business

10 Atlantic Canada Outlook Summary New Brunswick * 15F Real GDP growth (%) Prince Edward Island * 15F Nova Scotia * 15F 7.2 Newfoundland & Labrador * 15F Source: Statistics Canada, APEC, Canadian banks * Preliminary GDP by industry estimates

11 Recovery in US Housing Market Should Boost Lumber Exports in 2015 US housing starts (millions) New Brunswick lumber exports to US ($ millions) 625 US housing starts 500 NB lumber exports New Brunswick lumber exports to the US down 5% year-to-date. US housing starts forecast to increase about 11% in F J.D. Irving investing $38 m in sawmills, $450 m in pulp mill. Source: US Census Bureau, TD, Trade Data Online, Statistics Canada

12 Modest Job Gains Will Limit Growth in Consumer Spending in Year-to-date change, 2015 (%) Employment* Wages Consumer prices NB CA Employment growth expected to remain modest, at 0.7% in New Brunswick in Retail sales ex. gasoline Real wage gains will continue to provide some support for consumer spending Source: Statistics Canada, APEC * employees only

13 Presentation Outline 2015 Economic Outlook: Oil Price Impacts Key Trends: Demographics Key Trends: Consumer Debt Key Trends: Fiscal Realities Key Trends: Major Project Investment Key Trends: Manufacturing Exports

14 Employment Gains Concentrated Among Older Workers Change in employment by age group, (%) years and over years 50 years and older Employment of workers aged 50 years and over has grown by over 21,000 in New Brunswick since CA NL PE NS NB Source: Statistics Canada

15 Participation Rates Rising for Older Workers Participation rate by age group, Atlantic Canada (%) to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 years and over Participation rate for those aged doubled since 1994 to 50%. But participation rates still very low for those 65 years and over; and 40% of seniors work parttime. Source: Statistics Canada

16 Employment Gains Continue to be Concentrated in Atlantic Cities Employment growth by economic region, (%) Atlantic Canada St.John's (Avalon), NL Labrador/West Coast NL PEI Halifax, NS Moncton, NB Saint John, NB Annapolis Valley, NS South Coast NL Fredericton, NB North West NB Northern NS Campbellton-Miramichi, NB Cape Breton, NS Southern NS Urban Rural Majority of net job gains in St. John s and Halifax. Job losses concentrated in non-urban communities. Source: Statistics Canada, APEC

17 Limited Job Growth Due to Divergent Industry Trends Change in employment by industry, Atlantic Canada, , (%) Oil & gas Professional services Construction Health care Financial services ALL INDUSTRIES Retail Accomodation Business services Other manufacturing Federal gov't Forest industries Food industries Investment boom boosted oil & gas, professional services and construction. Employment contracting in export industries (manufacturing, tourism) & federal government. Source: Statistics Canada (Labour Force Survey)

18 Presentation Outline 2015 Economic Outlook: Oil Price Impacts Key Trends: Demographics Key Trends: Consumer Debt Key Trends: Fiscal Realities Key Trends: Major Project Investment Key Trends: Manufacturing Exports

19 Overall Debt Service Ratios (DSRs) Generally Lower in Atlantic Canada Interest payments on debt as a share of disposable income, 2013 (%) Non-mortage debt Mortgage debt CA NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC Lower DSRs reflect lower house prices and smaller mortgages. Non-mortgage debt relatively high in NS and PEI but low in NL. Source: Statistics Canada

20 Debt Service Ratios (DSRs) Have Fallen With Interest Rates Interest payments as a share of disposable income (%) CA mortgage debt ATL mortgage debt CA non-mortgage debt ATL non-mortgage debt Mortgage DSRs trended down with lower mortgage rate. Non-mortgage DSRs more stable. High debt households most at risk from lower house prices or loss of employment. Source: Statistics Canada

21 Presentation Outline 2015 Economic Outlook: Oil Price Impacts Key Trends: Demographics Key Trends: Consumer Debt Key Trends: Fiscal Realities Key Trends: Major Project Investment Key Trends: Manufacturing Exports

22 Federal Government Eliminated Its Deficit and Spent Its Small Surplus Federal balance, Canada ($ billions) Forecast 2008/ / / / / /19 Federal government balanced the budget with a notional surplus ($1.4 bn) in 2015/2016. Lower oil prices and tax and infrastructure measures announced last fall have reduce the size of future surpluses. Source: Finance Canada

23 New Brunswick Still Working to Eliminate Its Deficit Fiscal balance, New Brunswick ($ millions) Contingency reserve 2008/ / / / / / / /16 Deficit of $477 million in 2015/2016 (including $150m contingency). Budget announced various tax measures. Strategic program review underway to identify further savings. Net debt risen to 37.5% of GDP. Source: New Brunswick Department of Finance

24 Presentation Outline 2015 Economic Outlook: Oil Price Impacts Key Trends: Demographics Key Trends: Consumer Debt Key Trends: Fiscal Realities Key Trends: Major Project Investment Key Trends: Manufacturing Exports

25 Major Project Investment Spending Creates Opportunities for Suppliers Major project investment spending, baseline and alternative scenario ($ billions) NL- Baseline NL- Scenario NS- Baseline NB- Baseline PE- Baseline NS- Scenario NB- Scenario Investment spending in NL coming off a peak. Upside potential in Nova Scotia & New Brunswick if projects proceed. Source: APEC Major Projects Inventory 2014 Note: Based on LAST YEAR s data new data coming May25

26

27 Presentation Outline 2015 Economic Outlook: Oil Price Impacts Key Trends: Demographics Key Trends: Consumer Debt Key Trends: Fiscal Realities Key Trends: Major Project Investment Key Trends: Manufacturing Exports

28 Atlantic Export Gains Masked by Decline in Forest Products Change in exports by industry*, , Atlantic Canada ($ millions) Food ($3,234 m) Tires ($1,088 m) Paper ($809 m) Pulp ($732 m) Wood products ($694 m) Machinery & equip. ($646 m) Metal products ($354 m) Pharm. & chemicals ($259 m) Plastics ($244m) Aerospace ($149 m) Mid-size industries -1, Mid-size export industries seeing growth. Exports other than food and forest products now account for 39% of non-refined manufactured exports. Source: Trade Data Online * Listed by size of 2014 exports. Refined petroleum exports ($11,100 m) grew by $4,550 million.

29 Atlantic Manufacturers Underperform On a Wide Range of Indicators Selected competitiveness indicators, Atlantic manufacturing (Index, Canada = 100) Size (exports per plant)* Productivity (output per hour) Proportion of innovative firms Proportion using advanced technology Exports as share of sales* Focus on product postion Focus on low price & cost advantage Improved quality of product Decreased lead time Small Atlantic manufacturers typically less global, innovative and responsive to customer service. Some firms are succeeding in niche markets Source: Statistics Canada (including Survey of Innovation and Business Strategy) * Excluding refined petroleum

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