Labour Market Bulletin

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1 Labour Market Bulletin New Brunswick June 2015 This Labour Market Bulletin provides an analysis of Labour Force Survey results for the province of New Brunswick, including the regions of Campbellton Miramichi, Edmundston Woodstock, Fredericton Oromocto, Moncton Richibucto and Saint John St. Stephen. OVERVIEW Employment declined slightly in New Brunswick between the first and second quarter of 2015 (-2,400 or -0.7%), essentially eliminating all of the quarterly employment gains that were achieved during the first quarter. Compared to the same period last year, employment in the second quarter was down by 1,700. Nearly all of the quarterly year-over-year employment declines were attributed to fewer part-time jobs, while full-time work was relatively stable. New Brunswick quarterly labour force statistics Seasonally Adjusted 2nd Quarter 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter Quarterly Variation Yearly Variation Quarterly Data Number % Number % Population 15 + ('000) Labour Force ('000) Employment ('000) Full-Time ('000) Part-Time ('000) Unemployment ('000) Unemployment Rate (%) Participation Rate (%) Employment Rate (%) Note: Totals may not add due to rounding Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANSIM Table Between April and June 2015, the unemployment rate in New Brunswick averaged 10.1%, representing a decline of 0.1 percentage-points compared to the first quarter. On a year-over-year basis, the quarterly unemployment

2 Labour Market Bulletin New Brunswick June 2015 Page 2 rate was unchanged. Likewise, the level of unemployment in the second quarter of 2015 was identical to the same period in Following steady employment declines since mid-2014, the provincial labour market did show some signs of rebounding during the first quarter of However, the New Brunswick economy continues to struggle as it waits for further investment announcements. Some relief may come in the form of public spending, as the provincial budget earmarked $597 million for total investment, up by 8% from the previous fiscal year. But the most significant event to potentially impact the provincial economy would be the announcement of TransCanada Corp. s Energy East project. The project is proposing to build a 4,600 km pipeline that would carry 1.1 million barrels of oil per day from western Canada to refineries in Quebec and New Brunswick. The New Brunswick portion of the development would see approximately $2.16 billion spent on pipeline construction and facilities/pump stations.

3 Labour Market Bulletin New Brunswick June 2015 Page 3 While a number of youth typically begin to look for summer jobs towards the end of the second quarter, the provincial labour market appeared to be particularly challenging for this segment. Indeed, the unemployment rate among people aged increased dramatically in June, while remaining fairly stable for core aged workers. On a quarterly basis, the unemployment rate for people aged was up to 18.5% this quarter, which represents an increase of 1.3 percentage-points since the first quarter of In comparison to last year, the second quarter employment level for youth has declined by 700. Seasonally Adjusted Data New Brunswick quarterly unemployment rates, by gender and age 2nd Quarter 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter Quarterly Yearly Variation Variation 2015 (%) 2015 (%) 2014 (%) (% points) (% points) Total years and over Men - 25 years and over Women - 25 years and over to 24 years Men - 15 to 24 years Women - 15 to 24 years Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANSIM Table EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY Despite a net overall employment decline, New Brunswick s services-producing sector recorded a slight increase (1,600) on a year-over-year basis. The largest employment gains in this sector were observed in educational services (+3,400) and transportation and warehousing (+2,100). The educational services industry has trended upward for the past five years; however, the industry may face some fiscal restraints as announced in New Brunswick s 2015 budget. Employment fell in the goods-producing sector (-4,400, or -3.3%); however, the manufacturing industry went against the sector s overall trend and posted notable year-over-year gains. Compared to the second quarter of 2014, manufacturing employment was up by 14,800 as a strengthening US economy and a declining Canadian dollar have been a boom to the province s manufacturers. Growing demand for New Brunswick-made products has also led to significant investment in the industry. J.D. Irving Ltd. announced in spring 2014 that it is investing $513 million in its mills across the province. The construction industry continued its downward trend during the second quarter. Employment in this industry has fallen by 4,600 since the second quarter of Rising out-migration from the province may be contributing to lower levels of housing starts, which has hampered residential construction 1. In fact, employment in the construction industry currently sits at its lowest point since The forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas industry has also struggled over the past year, declining by 18.7% during this period. And while forestry hasn t fully recovered from the last economic downturn, the industry is being improved by a strengthening US housing market, which is increasing demand for New 1 CMHC, Housing Market Outlook, First Quarter 2015, pg. 3

4 Labour Market Bulletin New Brunswick June 2015 Page 4 Brunswick s forest products. The ramping up of production at the Picadilly Potash mine near Sussex is expected to lead to further strengthening in this sector. Seasonally Adjusted Data ('000) New Brunswick quarterly labour force statistics, by industry 2nd Quarter 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter Quarterly Variation Yearly Variation Number % Number % Total employed, all industries Goods-producing sector Agriculture Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas Utilities Construction Manufacturing Services-producing sector Trade Transportation and warehousing Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing Professional, scientific and technical services Business, building and other support services Educational services Health care and social assistance Information, culture and recreation Accommodation and food services Other services Public administration Note: Totals may not add due to rounding Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANSIM Table REGIONAL ANALYSIS Only two of New Brunswick s five economic regions posted employment gains on a year-over-year basis. Leading the way was Fredericton-Oromocto (+3,700), where employment grew by 6.0%. This region s employment levels were advanced by increases in transportation and warehousing, as well as business, building and other support services. Employment also grew in Campbellton-Miramichi (+800), albeit growth was lower at 1.3%. Regional employment gains were attributed to growth in the trade and manufacturing industries. The region s employment level has also benefited from the re-opening of Trevali s Caribou Mine. The company announced at the beginning of the second quarter that it staffed approximately 210 positions since opening, with roughly 17% of the workforce being made up of First Nations members, including recent graduates of the First Nations Underground Miners Training Program and Mill Operators Training Program.

5 Labour Market Bulletin New Brunswick June 2015 Page 5 The province s other three regions have experienced a drop in employment since the second quarter of Moncton-Richibucto (-3,100) recorded the largest decline, with a notable contraction in the construction industry. Since last year, the regional unemployment rate has risen from 7.4% to 9.8% as of the second quarter of In Saint John-St. Stephen (-2,700), employment was also down on a year-over-year basis. Nonetheless, the area had the lowest unemployment rate in the province during the second quarter of 2015 at 8.6%. One bright spot in the region has been the recent improvement on contract prices for Canadian potash deliveries. Indeed, PotashCorp s Picadilly mine, located near Sussex, opened in late 2014 and continues to ramp up production levels. Employment losses in Edmundston-Woodstock (-1,300), the province s smallest regional labour market, were driven by a decline in the construction and trade industries. The regional unemployment rate was slightly better than the provincial average, but it climbed by 0.3 percentage-points on a year-over-year basis. Overall, the fluctuations in the Edmundston-Woodstock labour market were minor. From a historical perspective, employment in this region has remained relatively stable since the late-1990 s. New Brunswick quarterly labour force statistics, by economic region Employment Unemployment Rate Seasonally Unadjusted Data 2nd Quarter 2nd Quarter Yearly 2nd Quarter 2nd Quarter Yearly Variation Variation ('000) ('000) (%) (%) (%) (% points) New Brunswick Economic Regions Campbellton-Miramichi Moncton-Richibucto Saint John-St. Stephen Fredericton-Oromocto Edmundston-Woodstock Note: Totals may not add due to rounding Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANSIM Table

6 Labour Market Bulletin New Brunswick June 2015 Page 6 Note: In preparing this document, the authors have taken care to provide clients with labour market information that is timely and accurate at the time of publication. Since labour market conditions are dynamic, some of the information presented here may have changed since this document was published. Users are encouraged to also refer to other sources for additional information on the local economy and labour market. Information contained in this document does not necessarily reflect official policies of Employment and Social Development Canada. Prepared by: Labour Market Analysis Directorate, Service Canada, Atlantic Region For further information, please contact the LMI team For information on the Labour Force Survey, please visit the Statistics Canada Website Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada as represented by Employment and Social Development Canada, 2015, all rights reserved

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