AUSTRALIAN HOTEL SECTOR OUTLOOK. October 2015
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1 AUSTRALIAN HOTEL SECTOR OUTLOOK October
2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2
3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Tourism to pick-up Declining Australian dollar is encouraging domestic tourists to holiday locally and makes Australia a more attractive destination for overseas visitors Strong growth in international tourism especially China and SE-Asia International visitor numbers increased 7% in FY15 to a new high of 6.6m visitors China is now Australia s second-largest inbound market behind New Zealand and the most lucrative in terms of money spent per visitor Australian Hotel Sector Positioned to Provide Strong Returns Hotels generated a total return for the year ending June 2015 of 14.2%, up from 12.8% in year to March 2015 and outperformed office, retail and industrial property in year to June 2015 The average occupancy rate across Australia was 74.4% with Sydney and Melbourne recording 84.5% and 82.0% CBD markets - Sydney and Melbourne markets performing strongly RevPAR growth of 7.4% and 4.5% respectively and above 80% occupancy - capitalising on both stronger corporate market and inbound tourism Strong appetite for hotels especially from international investors yields to continue to firm More than $4.2bn in hotel sales in FY15, up 107% on FY14 foreign investors accounted for more than 54% of transactions 3
4 AUSTRALIAN TOURISM AND HOTEL OUTLOOK 4
5 AUSTRALIAN HOTEL INDUSTRY Australia s Graded Room Supply: June 2014 Hotels Motels Serviced Apartments Australia s Top Ten Accommodation Operators: December 2014 No. Rooms Growth % Head Office 5 Star 19, ,462 Accor , % France Mantra Group , % Australia Choice Hotels Australasia , % Australia 4 Star 46,315 23,720 40,629 Amalgamated Holdings Ltd 46 8, % Australia Toga Far East Hotels 57 7, % Australia 3 Star 17,324 53,655 11,326 2 Star and Below 4,769 6, Total 88,296 84,428 56,922 Quest Apartments 111 6, % Australia InterContinental Hotels Group 24 6, % Best Western 161 5, % United Kingdom United States Oaks Hotels and Resorts 43 5, % Thailand Hilton Hotels of Australia 14 4, % Total 1,038 97, % United States Source: ABS/JLL 5 Source: JLL Australia had 229,646 rooms at June % are hotels, 37% are motels and 25% are serviced apartments Supply is anticipated to continue over the coming years as major projects are completed in the short to medium term within Sydney (Crown Hotel at Barangaroo, Sydney Convention Centre Hotel), Melbourne (Aloft Hotel, Hotel Windsor extension, the Queensbridge Tower), Brisbane (40 Elizabeth St and the W Hotel), Perth (Elizabeth Quay Westin Hotel, AVANI Hotel, Crown Burswood) Top ten operators accounted for 43% of Australian total room supply - 1,038 comprising properties with 97,487 rooms
6 AUSTRALIAN HOTEL INDUSTRY Australia s Top Ten Accommodation Owners Hotels: December 2014 Top 30 Australian Accommodation Owners Origin: December 2014 Hotels Rooms % Growth Origin Rooms % of Total Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) Meriton Serviced Apartments Source: JLL 31 4, % United Arab Emirates 13 3, % Australia Schwartz Family Company 12 3, % Australia Toga Far East Hotels 21 2, % Australia Amalgamated Holdings Limited 19 2, % Australia Crown Limited 5 2, % Australia Mirvac Investment Management 13 2, % Australia Ascendas Hospitality Trust 7 2, % Singapore TCC / Fraser Hospitality 7 1, % Thailand Stamford Land Corporation 7 1, % Singapore Total , % Australia 22,587 48% Singapore 12,548 27% Middle East 4,096 9% Global 2,898 6% Malaysia 1,914 4% Thailand 1,833 4% Hong Kong 754 2% Total 46, % Source: JLL Top ten owners accounted for 11% (25,876 rooms) of total room supply Offshore groups account for 52% of the rooms owned by the top 30 operators by rooms down from 77% in 2000 the decline is due to the growth in the serviced apartment sector which is dominated by local owners 6
7 HOTEL PERFORMANCE INVESTMENT Hotels Annualised Total Returns: To June 2015 Annualised total return for the year ending June 2015 was 14.2%, up from 12.8% in year to March 2015 In the year to June 2015: hotels outperformed industrial 12.9%, office 11.1% and retail 10.8% CBD hotels outperformed non-cbd hotels by 110bps NSW hotels generated strong performance - total return of 18.7%, compared to QLD and VIC which returned 10.2% and 17.3% respectively Source: MSCI 7
8 HOTEL PERFORMANCE INVESTMENT Australian Hotels Weighted Average Cap Rate: June 2006 June 2015 Weighted average cap rate at June 2015 was 7.60%, below the long-term average of 8.22% Cap rates firmed 35 bps in FY15 Wide spread in cap rates between CBD and non- CBD hotels 7.8% versus 9.0% Sydney hotel cap rates average 7.4% - 40 bps higher than industrial at 7.0% and 6.75% for office Source: MSCI/Savills Research 8
9 AUSTRALIAN HOTEL TRANSACTIONS Australian Hotel Sales: Key Hotel Transactions: Nov 2014 June 2015 Hotel Date Price per Room Rendezvous on George, Brisbane Passing Yield June 2015 $297, % The Westin, Sydney May 2015 $1,069, % Hilton, Sydney May 2015 $763, % Pullman International, Cairns Marriott, Surfers Paradise West End Backpackers, Sydney Zagame s Surfers Paradise Diamant Kings Cross, Sydney May 2015 $224, % May 2015 $258, % May 2015 $220, % Mar 2015 $195, % Mar 2015 $290, % NEXT, Brisbane Jan 2015 $324, % Sheraton on the Park, Sydney* Nov 2014 $903, % Source: Savills Source: Savills Hotels *Includes capital expenditure commitment More than $4.2bn in hotel sales in FY15, up 107% on FY14 Circa 66% of transactions over $100m Foreign investors accounted for more than 54% of transactions 9
10 AUSTRALIAN HOTEL TRANSACTIONS Recent Cross Border Flows - The Australian Hotel Investment Market Continues to Attract Strong Levels of Foreign Capital Source: JLL 10
11 HOTEL PERFORMANCE KPIs Hotel Performance KPIs: YTD July 2015 Location Occupancy (%) ADR ($) RevPAR (%) Australia ADR and RevPAR Growth: Darwin ADR Growth -3.8% RevPAR -11.8% Cairns ADR Growth 2.1% RevPAR 10.3% Adelaide Brisbane Brisbane Cairns Canberra Darwin Gold Coast Hobart Melbourne Perth Sydney Source: STR Global Perth ADR Growth -1.6% RevPAR -3.4% Adelaide ADR Growth -0.4% RevPAR -4.1% Australia ADR Growth 2.1% RevPAR 3.7% Melbourne ADR Growth 2.7% RevPAR 4.5% Hobart ADR Growth 1.9% RevPAR 5.7% ADR Growth -1.9% RevPAR -5.7% Gold Coast ADR Growth 4.7% RevPAR 9.3% Sydney ADR Growth 4.8% RevPAR 7.4% Canberra ADR Growth 0.5% RevPAR 7.2% CBD markets - Sydney and Melbourne markets performing strongly RevPAR growth of 7.4% and 4.5% respectively and above 80% occupancy - capitalising on both stronger corporate market and inbound tourism Non-CBD - Gold-Coast and Cairns/Far North Queensland have rebounded with Rev PAR growth of 10.3% and 9.3% respectively 11
12 HOTEL PERFORMANCE KPI FORECASTS Major Capital City RevPAR Comparison: Secondary Capital City RevPAR: Source: Dransfield Leisure Based City RevPAR: RevPAR average growth of 4.4% p.a. through to FY2023 with most cities showing steady growth Sydney is forecast to remain the highest RevPAR city, a title it has held for all but one year, and regained following the resetting of the Perth market in late 2012/13 Perth and Brisbane are continuing through a small correction however will revert to similar growth profiles in the long term Recovery in Queensland s leisure based markets is expected to continue, and largely catch up to Darwin which is going through a correction following strong demand from the resource boom 12
13 New Zealand China UK USA Singapore Japan Malaysia India Korea Hong Kong Germany Indonesia Canada Taiwan France Scandinavia Thailand Italy Switzerland Netherlands INTERNATIONAL VISITORS - VOLUME Visitors by Country of Residence: Visitors by Country of Residence - % Change: New Zealand China UK USA Singapore Japan Malaysia India Korea Hong Kong Germany Indonesia Canada Taiwan France Scandinavia Thailand Italy Switzerland Netherlands ,000 1,200 1, % 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Year ending June 2014 ('000) Year ending June 2015 ('000) Source: Tourism Research Australia Source: Tourism Research Australia International visitor numbers increased 7% in FY15 to a new high of 6.6m visitors NZ is still the largest source of visitors China visitor numbers increased by 22% to 864,000 Australia s second largest source of visitors India increased 20% to 207,000 driven by the World Cup Cricket 13
14 China UK New Zealand India USA Korea Taiwan Germany Japan Hong Kong France Malaysia Singapore Italy Canada Indonesia Scandinavia Thailand Netherlands Switzerland INTERNATIONAL TOURISTS ROOM NIGHTS Room Nights by Country of Residence: Room Nights by Country of Residence - % Change: China UK New Zealand India USA Korea Taiwan Germany Japan Hong Kong France Malaysia Singapore Italy Canada Indonesia Scandinavia Thailand Netherlands Switzerland 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40, % 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% Year ending June 2014 ('000) Year ending June 2015 ('000) Source: Tourism Research Australia Source: Tourism Research Australia Visitor nights increased by 8% to 236m China s visitor nights increased by 18.0% to 36,776 41% higher than the UK in second place Chinese visitors stayed an average of 44 nights 14
15 China UK USA New Zealand Japan Singapore Korea Malaysia Hong Kong India Germany Canada France Taiwan Scandinavia Indonesia Italy Switzerland Thailand Netherlands INTERNATIONAL TOURISTS - EXPENDITURE Expenditure by Country of Residence: Expenditure by Country of Residence - % Change: China UK USA New Zealand Japan Singapore Korea Malaysia Hong Kong India Germany Canada France Taiwan Scandinavia Indonesia Italy Switzerland Thailand Netherlands 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000, % 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% Year ending June 2014 ('000) Year ending June 2015 ('000) Source: Tourism Research Australia Source: Tourism Research Australia International visitor spend grew by 10% to a record $33.4bn - $3.2bn more than the previous year FY15 s growth is the second largest on record since FY01, when Sydney hosted the Sydney Olympic Games China visitors trip spend increased by 32% to $7.0bn 32% higher than FY14, just behind India (due to World Cup Cricket) Chinese visitors account for 21 cents in every $1 spent by international tourists in FY15 15
16 Jun-1992 Jun-1993 Jun-1994 Jun-1995 Jun-1996 Jun-1997 Jun-1998 Jun-1999 Jun-2000 Jun-2001 Jun-2002 Jun-2003 Jun-2004 Jun-2005 Jun-2006 Jun-2007 Jun-2008 Jun-2009 Jun-2010 Jun-2011 Jun-2012 Jun-2013 Jun-2014 Jun-2015 INTERNATIONAL TOURISM TO AUSTRALIA China Travel to Australia: International Visitor Arrivals Forecast: 3 Years to Dec ,000, , , , , , , , , , % 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% No of Arrivals % of Total Arrivals Source: ABS Source: Deloitte Access Economics Emerging Asia will continue to be the driving force accounting for 60% of total growth but the outlook for several of Australia s traditional markets is also strengthening Visitor numbers are projected to grow at an average pace of 5.2% p.a. to December 2017 China visitors to increase by 8.3% - the fastest of the major visitor sources Based on current growth rates, China is on track to overtake New Zealand as our largest inbound market in
17 AIR TRAVEL CHINA TO AUSTRALIA Aviation Routes From China to Australia Direct Aviation Capacity From China to Australia: Source: CAPA-Centre for Aviation, Tourism Australia Source: Bureau of Infrastructure and Regional Development New China-Australia bilateral air services agreement signed in Jan 2015 Immediately increased the current weekly seat capacity by 136%, adding 4,000 seats for airlines flying from the main gateway cities of Beijing, Shanghai or Guangzhou and 26,500 seats a week for airlines flying from a second or third tier city Total capacity between Australia and China will almost triple from 22,500 seats to 67,000 seats a week by 2016 Past five years, Chinese airlines doubled seat capacity to Sydney, with the number of weekly services rising from 48 to 82 17
18 INTERNATIONAL TOURISM TO AUSTRALIA Where do international leisure visitors travel in Australia? Most international tourism activity is concentrated in capital cities and along the east coast of Australia Propensity of international visitors to travel to regional areas varies depending on, for example, their purpose of travel - holiday visitors are the most likely to spend nights in regional areas, and employment Visitors from Asia have a lower tendency to travel to regional areas than visitors from other countries - Tourism Research Australia found that in 2013: 62 per cent of visitors from Asia were unlikely to visit multiple destinations, destinations in regional Australia, or capital cities other than Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth Source: Productivity Commission/TRA By tourism region. Leisure denotes those who travel for a holiday or to visit friends and relatives. Visitors may travel to more than one region. 84 per cent of visitors from Asia were unlikely to visit destinations in regional Australia or capital cities other than Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth, although they might visit multiple destinations 18
19 TOURISM INVESTMENT PIPELINE Number and Total Value of Large Scale Tourism Projects: projects valued at $53.7bn Aviation projects - $31.3bn Arts, recreation and business services infrastructure projects - $13.9bn Accommodation projects - $8.5bn, potentially adding 15,915 rooms An additional 69 mixed-use developments - $33.6bn, potentially delivering an additional 18,315 rooms Source: Tourism Research Australia 19
20 TOURISM 2020 INDUSTRY POTENTIAL Tourism Industry Potential: Total Overnight Expenditure at 2020 Tourism Industry Potential: Incremental Growth in Expenditure at 2020 Band Lower ($bn) Upper ($bn) China UK USA South Korea NZ Japan Singapore India Malaysia Germany Source: Tourism Australia, BDA Marketing Planning, Access Economics France Tourism Australia s 2020 strategy focuses on enhancing growth and competitiveness of the Australia tourism sector A key component is to grow demand from Asia especially China Tourism Australia estimates: 20 between 40,000 and 70,000 rooms needed (assuming avg occupancy rates of 75%) aviation capacity will need to grow between 40% and 50% (international) and between 23% and 30% (domestic)
21 HOTEL OPERATING MODELS Key Features and Responsibilities of Parties of the Hotel Ownership Structures in Australia RESPONSIBILITIES OF PARTIES INVOLVED Management Agreement Franchise Agreement Owner Pays operator a management fee Carries out construction and fitting out at its own cost Carries out capital works and supplies and maintains furniture, fixtures and equipment Provides working capital requirements Employs the hotel employees Franchisee Owns and operates the hotel on its own behalf in accordance with the Franchisor s system Carries out construction and fitting out at its own cost Carries out capital works and supplies and maintains furniture, fixtures and equipment Employs the hotel employees Provides working capital requirements May be subject to performance targets Pays franchisor the initial fee plus ongoing loyalty fee Operator Manages and operates hotel for and on behalf of the owner Design to operator s brand standards Provides marketing and reservation systems and services Provides intellectual property and branding Provides technical services May be subject to a performance test Franchisor Design to franchisor s brand standards Provides marketing and reservation systems and services Provides intellectual property and branding Provides technical services Management Lease Landlord Receives rent from tenant, which may comprise a fixed component and a portion calculated by reference to gross revenue or rooms revenue of the hotel business Tenant Tenant (operator) leases the land to run the hotel business for and on its own behalf (in accordance with the brand standards of an international/national operator) Construction and fitout at its own cost Carries out capital works supplies and maintains furniture, fixtures and equipment Provides working capital requirements Employs the hotel employees Source: Ashurst 21
22 HOTEL OPERATING MODELS Approximate Use in Australia Term Fee Structure Performance Tests Other Key Terms A Summary of Some of the Key Terms for Each Hotel Ownership Arrangement in Australia Hotel Management Agreement Hotel Franchise Agreement Hotel Management Lease 75% 20% 5% Generally between years with option for a further term. Base management fee plus incentive management fee. Base management fee is generally a fixed percentage of revenue throughout the term of the arrangement. Incentive management fees may be calculated as a percentage of the gross operating profit. The operator may be subject to performance tests which relate to gross operating profit or average revenue per available room (RevPAR) or a competitive set. The operator s failure to achieve performance tests may give rise to termination rights or repayment of fees paid. Extent of owner s involvement in hotel management, eg. approval rights for key employees such as general manager, financial controller Approval of budget Intellectual property ownership Insurance Generally between 5-10 years with option for a further term. Initial franchise fee plus continuing loyalty or royalty fee calculated as a percentage of turnover or gross revenue. The owner may be required to contribute to the cost of the business systems or services made available (for example, loyalty program). The franchisor sets specific performance targets to protect the reputation of its brand and ensure its entitlement to fees. Performance tests vary between franchisors and may take the form of a guest satisfaction evaluation system or be linked to financial performance of the hotel. Reporting Intellectual property ownership Insurance Generally longer than 5 years with option for a further term. Rent is usually structured with fixed and percentage components. The fixed rent would be subject to annual rent reviews. The turnover rent is calculated by reference to the revenue of the hotel business. A performance test may be negotiated as the turnover rent may be a significant portion of the rental obligations of the operator. Performance test options are similar to those for hotel management agreements. Transmission of business provision (for example, in the event of early termination where the owner needs to put in a new tenant or operator) Approval of budget Insurance Source: Ashurst 22
23 DISCLAIMER This presentation has been published for information purposes only. The information contained in this paper is of a general nature only and does not constitute financial product advice. This presentation has been prepared without taking account of any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of that, each person should, before acting on this presentation, consider its appropriateness, having regard to their own objectives, financial situation and needs. You should consult a professional investment adviser before making any decision regarding a financial product. In preparing this presentation the author has relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources or which has otherwise been reviewed in preparation of the paper. The information contained in this paper is current as at the date of this paper and is subject to change without notice. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Neither Folkestone Limited, nor any of their associates, related entities or directors, give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained in this paper. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, Folkestone Limited and its associates, related entities, directors, employees and consultants do not accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise) arising from the use of this paper. If a product managed by Folkestone Limited or its associates is acquired, Folkestone Limited or its associates and related entities may receive fees and other benefits. The author of this paper does not receive commissions or remuneration from transactions involving the financial products mentioned in this paper. 23
24 DIRECTORY Folkestone Limited ASX Code: FLK Website: ABN: Level 12, 15 William Street Melbourne Vic 3000 T: Level 10, 60 Carrington Street Sydney, NSW 2000 T: Board of Directors: Garry Sladden Non-Executive Chairman Mark Baillie Non-Executive Deputy Chairman Greg Paramor AO Managing Director Ross Strang Non-Executive Director Company Secretary: Scott Martin Investor Relations: Lula Liossi T: lliossi@folkestone.com.au DISCLAIMER: This paper has been published for information purposes only. The information contained in this paper is of a general nature only and does not constitute financial product advice. This presentation has been prepared without taking account of any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of that, each person should, before acting on this presentation, consider its appropriateness, having regard to their own objectives, financial situation and needs. You should consult a professional investment adviser before making any decision regarding a financial product. In preparing this presentation the author has relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources or which has otherwise been reviewed in preparation of the paper. The information contained in this paper is current as at the date of this paper and is subject to change without notice. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Neither Folkestone Limited, nor any of their associates, related entities or directors, give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained in this paper. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, Folkestone Limited and its associates, related entities, directors, employees and consultants do not accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise) arising from the use of this paper. If a product managed by Folkestone Limited or its associates is acquired, Folkestone Limited or its associates and related entities may receive fees and other benefits. The author 24 of this paper does not receive commissions or remuneration from transactions involving the financial products mentioned in this paper. Registry: Boardroom Pty Limited PO Box R67, Royal Exchange NSW 1223 Telephone: or enquiries@boardroomlimited.com.au Website:
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