Materials and the Environment Part 1 Major Contributors to Increasing Consumption: Population and Economic Growth

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1 Materials and the Environment Part 1 Major Contributors to Increasing Consumption: Population and Economic Growth (Most recent update April 1, 2013)

2 Population Growth

3 Billions World Population Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2013.

4 Billions World Population Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2013.

5 Billions World Population Sharp increase in growth rate as basic medical care is extended to 100s of millions that hadn t before had access. Big drop in infant mortality. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2013.

6 World Population (Medium Projection of Growth Assumed After 2000) Billions Year Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2013.

7 Growth in Global Population Number of years to add each billion (year) First Billion All of recorded history (1800) Second 130 (1930) Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth 30 (1960) 15 (1975) 12 (1987) 12 (1999) 13 (2012) 16 (2028) 26 (2054) Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population in 2300 (medium scenario), 2003.

8 Millions 100 Annual Increase in World Population, China s great leap forward Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Division, 2013.

9 World Birth and Death Rates, Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population Natural Increase Birth rate Death rate Source: Data for from United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), Data for from Population Reference Bureau, 2012.

10 Rates of Population Increase Time Unit Population Increase Year 78,044,135 Month 6,503,678 Week 1,496,740 Day 213,820 Hour 8,880 Minute 148 Second 2.5 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Division, 2013.

11 Percent Average Annual Rate of Population Growth for the World, Continuing Decline Since Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Division, 2013.

12 Medium Projections of Population Growth (Billions) World Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013.

13 Future population growth will largely occur in the Less Economically Developed Countries

14 Billions World Population Projection by Level of Economic Development Developing Countries Developed Countries Source: Population Reference Bureau (2013)

15 But significant growth of the U.S. population is expected as well

16 Millions Growth of U.S. Population, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013.

17 Growth of U.S. Population, History Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Projection 2100

18 Medium Projections of Population Growth (World pop. in billions, U.S. in millions) World United States Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013.

19 Discussions about population and population growth tend to trigger great passion and substantial disagreement. But one thing is abundantly clear continued growth is reducing the margin for error.

20 As the population grows the area of biosphere per person becomes progressively smaller.

21 Consider this reality in the context of forests

22 Forests Then and Now - In 1800 World World population was 1 billion There were about 11 acres (4.5 ha.) of forests for each person in the world Today World population is over 7 billion There are about 1.4 acres (0.6 ha.) of forest for each person in the world

23 Forests Then, Now, and Future - World By the end of the next century World population is expected to reach 10 to 11 billion Even with zero loss of forests over the next 100 years, the amount of forest land for each person in the world will shrink to 0.7 to 0.8 acres (or about 0.3 ha.) - - half the current forest area per capita.

24 Forests Then and Now U.S. Year Population Forest Area (million ac.) Forest Area/ Capita (acres) ,000,000 1, ,300, ,000, ,000, ,330, Source: Population data from U.S. Census Bureau, historical population estimates. Forest area figures from U.S. Forest Service.

25 Forests Then and Now U.S. Year Population Forest Area (million ac.) Forest Area/ Capita (acres) ,000,000 1, ,300, ,000, ,000, ,330, ,000, Source: Population data from U.S. Census Bureau, historical population estimates and projections. Forest area figures from U.S. Forest Service; year 2100 figure based scenario in which there is no forest loss between 2010 and 2100.

26 Reductions in forest land/capita virtually ensure escalating conflict over forest use, and raise the question of where needed wood supplies will come from in the future.

27 The same is true of minerals, energy resources, food, agricultural fiber, and more.

28 No less significant, the world will be faced in the 21st century with the challenge of providing food, fuel, shelter, and clothing for a much larger population.

29 Economic Growth

30 Economy

31 Gross Domestic Product: The value of all goods and services produced within the borders of a nation.

32 Gross World Product: The sum of all Gross Domestic Product values expressed in a common currency.

33 Gross World Product, Trillions of 2005 U.S. dollars An increase of 3.6X. World population increased about 1.9x over the same period. Source: United Nations Statistics Division, (

34 As with Population, Economies of the Developing Nations are Growing Most Rapidly Historical and Projected Growth of World GDP by Level of Economic Development Annual Percent Change Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing Countries World Source: IMF (2013)

35 Billions of Current U.S. Dollars 6000 China s Gross Domestic Product (Expressed in Current $US) Source: World Bank, 2013.

36 Coincidentally, those nations with the most rapidly rising populations, are also those with the most rapidly expanding economies.

37 This translates to rapidly rising consumption.

38 It is a virtual certainty that consumption of raw materials globally will increase substantially in the future.

39 Consider housing: One effect of population and economic growth will be demand for over one billion new housing units globally over the next 50 years.

40 How will society achieve this while at the same time maintaining an environment that most of us would agree is acceptable for our children and grandchildren?

41 Summary World and U.S. populations are growing. The rate of population growth is slowing, though significant and ongoing increase in numbers continues. Populations are growing most rapidly in the developing nations. World economic growth is much more rapid than the rate of population growth. as a result, per capita consumption of goods of all kinds is rising globally.

42 Summary The combined effect is a number of challenges for the global society. A key challenge is how to maintain environmental quality for future generations, while at the same time providing for the needs of current generations.

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