Near Term Predictions of What is Ahead for the Exhibitions Industry

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2 Near Term Predictions of What is Ahead for the Exhibitions Industry Dan Altman Economist & Best-selling Author Adjunct Associate Professor of Economics, New York University s Stern School of Business

3 STERN SCHOOL OF BUSINESS, NEW YORK UNIVERSITY CEIR PREDICT 2016

4 Overview Rational forecasting Secular versus cyclical trends Cyclical trends and the CEIR index Sectors to watch Global and domestic risks Q & A

5 Rational forecasting Past performance is no guarantee of future results Collect all available information Understand the dynamics of the system Follow logic Example: predicting earthquakes

6 Secular versus cyclical trends Secular: from the Latin saeculum (an age, generation, or span of time) Cyclical: related to the business cycle Need to separate these two kinds of trends to understand the system Example: investments in fiber optic cable before 2000

7 Secular versus cyclical trends CEIR Index following real GDP in lockstep since 2010 Variation over the calendar year Variation within sectors

8 Cyclical trends and the CEIR Index Real GDP versus CEIR Index, year-on-year growth, % 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Real GDP (left axis) CEIR Index (right axis) Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and CEIR

9 Cyclical trends and the CEIR Index CPS employment versus CEIR Index, year-on-year growth, % 4.5% 4.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% CPS employment (left axis) CEIR Index (right axis) Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and CEIR

10 Secular versus cyclical trends 130 Real GDP and new CEIR indices, Real GDP index CEIR new estimates Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and CEIR

11 Sectors to watch Top-ranked sectors for events in 2015: 21% Medical and health care 11% Communications and information technology 9% Raw materials and science, education, business services What about 2020? Source: CEIR 2015 Census

12 Sectors to watch 1.00 Correlations between GDP product indices and real GDP index, Financial services and insurance Gasoline and other energy goods Food and beverage Health care Clothing and footwear Construction Information processing equipment and software Other non-energy nondurable goods Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

13 Sectors to watch Indexes of real GDP and real GDP from financial services and insurance Publication of draft Volcker Rule in October Real GDP Financial services and insurance Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

14 Sectors to watch 1.00 Correlations between GDP product indices and real GDP index, Financial services and insurance Gasoline and other energy goods Food and beverage Health care Clothing and footwear Construction Information processing equipment and software Other non-energy nondurable goods Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

15 Sectors to watch Real GDP from gasoline and other energy goods index versus real gasoline prices, Correlation = $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 Real GDP from gasoline and other energy goods (left axis) Real gasoline prices (right axis) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

16 Sectors to watch Refining capacity and bottlenecks Supply decisions affected by geopolitical factors Changes in demand correlated with growth, especially in the short term True of most major commodity markets

17 Sectors to watch Actual and projected Medicare and Medicaid outlays, $billions, % real annual growth at 2% CPI inflation Source: Congressional Budget Office

18 Sectors to watch Share of population aged 25+ with 4+ years of college, % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: Census Bureau

19 Sectors to watch Working age (25-54) population of the USA, millions, Source: Congressional Budget Office

20 Sectors to watch Millions of projected households in the United States, Under or older Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies

21 Global and domestic risks THE EUROPEAN UNION S DIVERGENT STORIES Italy and Spain: return to the long-term growth path with no pent-up demand Germany: robbing Pedro to pay Abdullah? France: the security threat to tourism (roughly 10% of GDP) Brexit: potential to slow and shift hiring and investment decisions Others: more crises and/or exits to come in the next cycle?

22 Global and domestic risks 6.0% Real GDP growth in Italy and Spain, % 2.0% 0.0% % -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Italy Spain Source: International Monetary Fund

23 Global and domestic risks CAN JAPAN BE REVIVED? The logical conclusion of a long glide-path A craving for less volatility, at least Lack of appetite for deep institutional change Female labor force participation the wrong emphasis?

24 Global and domestic risks 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% Labor force participation rates in Japan, % Female Male Source: World Bank

25 Global and domestic risks CHINA S ROCKY ROAD AHEAD Kicking the debt can further down the road The time-bomb of the shadow banking industry Potential for a huge uptick in investment after implementing reforms Counterproductive political moves

26 Global and domestic risks 250% Gross debt of public and private sectors as % of GDP in China, % 150% 100% 50% 0% Public Private Sources: International Monetary Fund and World Bank

27 Global and domestic risks THE REST OF THE BRICS WHAT HAPPENED? Politico-economic crises in Brazil and Russia Slow but steady improvements in India s growth, especially per capita But lower growth rates than pre-crisis, and mysteriously lower volatility Cooking the books à la China?

28 Global and domestic risks Real GDP growth in India, % 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% % -2.0% -3.0% Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

29 Global and domestic risks CAPITAL MARKET ISSUES AT HOME Some banks still too big to fail Overhang of investment in the energy sector Potential outflow of finance because of low real interest rates

30 Global and domestic risks POLICY EXPOSURE IN THE NEXT RECESSION Danger of another downturn without fiscal support Federal Reserve yet to recoup ammunition with higher rates Uselessness of additional easing in a market saturated with credit

31 Global and domestic risks POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY ON TRADE AND IMMIGRATION 40-50% of S&P 500 revenue from foreign sales 7-8 million undocumented migrants with jobs 7.8 million unemployed in Current Population Survey Matching numbers matching skills Sources: Standard & Poor s, Pew Hispanic Center, Bureau of Labor Statistics

32 Global and domestic risks BOTTOM LINES Commodities starting to recover but may not last Construction facing weakness in the future Health care to remain strong China, Germany, and India with the best prospects for accelerating growth United States in need of an uncomplicated few years

33 Q & A danielaltman.com

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