Signs of Life Presented by: Marc Townsend Managing Director CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd.
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1 Signs of Life Presented by: Marc Townsend Managing Director CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. CBRE RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
2 FIRST QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS! External pressures driving changes across the HCMC property market.! Residential developers, office landlords and some vendors in the investment market have taken steps to spark demand.! Outside Vietnam, there is a consensus that we may be nearing the end of the beginning of the global crisis.! New expectations in the market will increase pressure on landlords and developers to adapt to the new reality.! How long can they tough it out before painful decisions become preferable to empty properties, or a true recovery appears on the horizon? 2 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM
3 VIETNAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW! The GDP growth rate of 3.1% in the first quarter of 2009 was the lowest quarterly result in more than a decade.! However, with many of the world s largest economies contracting, any growth can be seen as a positive sign.! FDI commitments fell to US$2.2 billion in the first quarter of 2009 a decrease of 45% q-o-q.! The US$1 billion Government interest rate subsidy programme has been expanded to include medium-term loans - US$13.8 billion has already been extended to businesses.! For underlying structural reasons, Vietnam remains one of Asia s most attractive long-term investment destinations. 3 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM
4 HCMC ECONOMIC OVERVIEW! GDP growth slowed to 4.0% y-o-y in the first quarter, from 11.4% in the fourth quarter of 2008.! HCMC continued to outperform Vietnam as a whole. The GDP growth target for 2009 has been lowered from 10% to 6%.! Committed FDI dropped 73% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2009.! The number of newly established FDI enterprises in HCMC was down 35% q-o-q and 32% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2009.! The number of newly established non state Vietnamese enterprises was down 8.4% q-o-q, but increased 9% y-o-y.! Real estate and consultancy projects accounted for US$410.3 million of committed FDI in the first quarter as 4 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM
5 OFFICE! Grade A asking rents dropped 20% to an average of US$57.3 psm per month on GFA.! Persistent downward pressure on rents.! Demand has continued to weaken - total net absorption dropped 45% q-o-q and 85% y-o-y.! Significant new supply 13 new buildings providing 77,893 sm of GFA.! The steady flow of new supply and weakened net absorption drove vacancy to a three-year high of 12.3%.! Positive absorption in Grade B buildings as Grade A tenants relocated to reduce costs and falling Grade B rents prompted Grade C tenants to upgrade. 5 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM
6 OFFICE "OUTLOOK! Some Grade A landlords are offering discounts of up to 30% on asking rents, and rents are expected to trend much lower, to an average of US$30-$40 psm per month by the end of 2009.! At least 22 office buildings will be completed over the next four quarters, providing an additional 203,928 sm of GFA.! Competition in the Grade A and B markets will become more heated as major projects are completed in the second quarter.! New buildings will face fierce competition from existing landlords who will reduce rents to retain anchor tenants. 6 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM
7 RESIDENTIAL FOR SALE! Hoang Anh Gia Lai jump-started sales by reducing prices in two projects by an average of 38%. At least nine domestic developers followed suit.! All eyes will be watching to see if cash-strapped developers blink first in the standoff with buyers holding out for lower prices.! Buyers will still pay a premium for certain projects. Riverside Residence sold virtually all units, increasing prices for each phase from 5% - 8%.! We expect further differentiation between local and foreign projects, with international developers less willing to lower prices.! Average developer and resale asking prices continued to fall in all price ranges, dropping by a further 2%-10% q-o-q. 7 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM
8 RESIDENTIAL FOR SALE "OUTLOOK! Given the strong buyer response at reduced prices, repricing is expected to continue.! It is unclear whether it will develop into a market-wide adjustment or be limited to certain developers and segments.! The recent reductions will form a new level of resistance, with developers extremely reluctant to lower prices further.! As of February 25, common and homeowner s areas must be specified in contracts and used to calculate management fees. Buyers must pay 2% of house value into a sinking fund. 8 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM
9 RETAIL! Though growth in retail sales has slowed, domestic demand has proved more resilient than in much of the rest of the world.! Saigon Paragon opened in March at 80% occupancy. Real ground floor rents were US$60-$70 psm per month.! CBD shopping centre rents increased 1.3% q-o-q, while shopping centre rents outside the CBD dropped 6.7% q-o-q.! Local retailers continue to open in key locations to build brand awareness and visibility.! The number new international entrants has dwindled, and brands already present have delayed expansion programmes. 9 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM
10 RETAIL "OUTLOOK! Seeking to enhance brand awareness and visibility, Vietnamese retailers will remain the most vigorous players in the market.! CBD retail rents are expected to remain stable. Fringe CBD rents are expected to decrease 5%-10%, with rents elsewhere facing greater downward pressure.! 1.4 million sm (GFA) of space scheduled to be launched before However only half is likely to be completed on schedule.! The development trend is towards projects with retail areas larger than 100,000 sm, built in emerging suburban locations.! Large numbers of these projects are expected to move forward to meet anticipated demand when the market revives. 10 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM
11 SERVICED APARTMENTS! Grade A rents declined 4% q-o-q, the first decline since the second quarter of Grade B and C rents also declined, falling 5% q-o-q.! The weakening in Grade A rents was in larger units, reflecting changes in the key expatriate market as companies replace older, married employees with single or project-based staff.! As demand from the expat tenant base softens, landlords have begun to offer leases as short as a week.! Short-term leases have helped underpin occupancy - Grade A and Grade B occupancy actually increased slightly.! No new supply during the quarter.! Owners of buy to let apartments have reduced rents in order to draw tenants from serviced apartments. 11 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM
12 SERVICED APARTMENTS "OUTLOOK! The steady trickle of departing expatriates will continue to erode the base of demand for serviced apartments over the course of 2009.! Demand for larger units will continue to decline, but stable demand should continue to underpin rents for smaller units.! Declines of 8-10% in Grade A rents and 10-15% in Grade B rents are anticipated by the end of the year.! The level of new supply will remain limited, with only two projects slated to come on stream in 2009, adding 290 units.! Buy to let condominiums or villas are becoming more attractive due to their increasingly competitive pricing. 12 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM
13 3-5 STAR HOTELS! The downturn in global toursim and business travel continues to impact the hotel sector.! Five-star occupancy plunged 31.5% y-o-y and average fivestar room rates fell approximately 6.6% y-o-y.! Most four- and three-star hotels reduced room rates through promotional campaigns.! Taiwanese developer Fei Yueh broke ground on the Nikko Saigon Hotel, part of the mixed-use Royal Centre development. Approximately 335 rooms are scheduled to open in CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM
14 3-5 STAR HOTELS "OUTLOOK! The new supply anticipated in the second half of 2009 will pose further challenges in an already difficult environment.! Most hotels will continue to offer promotional campaigns, including discounted room rates and value-added services.! However, a significant discount in room rates leading to a price war is not anticipated.! The second quarter is the traditional low season, though the recent political unrest in Thailand could boost arrivals.! Up to 2,500 four or five-star hotel rooms could come on stream by end CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM
15 INVESTMENT! Though certain sellers have showed willingness to compromise, expectations of reduced prices have gone largely unmet.! Falling interest rates and Government stimulus efforts have offered access to credit and refinancing.! Viet Technology JSC sold a 10-storey office building on Vo Van Tan to Bitexco Nam Long Manufacturing and Investment JSC for approximately US$8 million.! A Saigon South site approved for an office tower was transferred from Hoa Binh Real Estate Construction and Trading JSC to Dong Duong Holding Company for US$11.9 million.! Dutch developer and investor ECC and GuocoLand will develop The Promenada retail project as part of The Canary development. The new JV will pay US$19.6 million to the GuocoLand entity developing The Canary. 15 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM! Raffles reportedly transferred its 15.5-ha beachfront site in Da Nang to Vincom at a price of US$70 psm.
16 CONSTRUCTION COSTS THIS SECTION CONTRIBUTED BY DAVIS LANGDON & SEAH VIETNAM Construction costs continued to decline in the first quarter of 2009, dropping an average of 4%-5% q-o-q.! DLS forecast that overall Vietnam construction costs will generally move within a range of 14.1% to +5.7% over 2009.! Falls in construction material prices, notably steel (-6.5%) and glass products (up to -7.5%).! Cost falls in some Mechanical, Electrical and Plumbing equipment.! Contractors and subcontractors are narrowing margins in order to remain competitive in a tightening market.! Contractors are reducing inflation forecasts in fixed price contracts. 16 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM
17 Investment New Ways to Play "Investment Sales change shape! Foreigners to Locals! Locals to Foreigners! Sale of Shares of single asset companies! En-bloc Sales during construction! Sale of a Retail Podium of a mixed-use development! Sale of 1 tower (out of several) "MORE assets have changed hands but below the radar screen CB Richard Ellis Fearless Forecasts CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM
18 Property Management OMC s vs. Developers "Militancy in Property Management both developers and owners struggle for control of their homes and common areas through the use of Owner Management Committees (OMCs) "Division of Interests what is common area? podium, retail, car park? Where does the developer stop and the OMC start? "Transparency OMCs ask - what are we buying and what are we paying for? Who should pay for maintenance of common areas? CB Richard Ellis Fearless Forecasts CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM
19 Over 300 markets in more than 50 countries Thank You 19 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM
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