Pace of Improvement Accelerates to Start 2016

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1 Research & Forecast Report TUCSON METRO AREA MULTIFAMILY 2 Pace of Improvement Accelerates to Start 2 Key Takeaways > > A strengthening labor market is supporting multifamily conditions in Tucson. Employers have added 1, jobs during the past months, a 2.7 percent gain. The strongest growth has been recorded over the past three quarters. > > Apartment vacancy ticked down to 6.8 percent in the first quarter, the lowest rate since 27. The current rate is 17 basis points lower than one year ago. > > With vacancies tightening, rents are on the rise. Asking rents rose 1.8 percent in the first quarter, and have advanced 4 percent year over year. Class A asking rents have spiked by more than 8 percent in the past months. > > The investment market is showing signs of strength, with activity picking up, prices pushing higher and cap rates compressing. An expanding buyer pool and a healthy inventory of listed buildings should support additional sales in the months ahead. Tucson Metro Area Multifamily Market The Tucson multifamily market got off to a fast start to 2. The vacancy rate improved dramatically, with the strongest single-quarter drop in nearly five years. in the Tucson area is now below 7 percent, the lowest figure since 27. The rate has been improving over the past few years, but the pace had been gradual until the first few months of this year. The increase in renter demand for units is being driven by strengthening employment growth, which has accelerated in recent quarters. Assuming employers continue to expand payrolls, vacancy should remain near current ranges, even as new units come online. The tightening vacancy conditions are also supporting rent increases, with the strongest gains being recorded in recent quarters. Market Indicators Relative to prior period Rents Transaction Activity Price Per Unit Cap Rates Summary Statistics Tucson Market Rate 6.8% Change from 2 (bps) -17 Per Month $669 Change from 2 4.% Median Sales Price Per Unit (YTD) Market 2 $44,6 Average Cap Rate 6.6% Market 2 Investment activity gained momentum to start 2. Sales velocity for the first quarter was the strongest of any quarter in more than three

2 Tucson Metro Area Multifamily Market (continued) years, and this was especially noteworthy because the first quarter is traditionally the least active period of the year. If recent patterns repeat, 2 could mark one the most active years on record in the Tucson market. The strengthening underlying property fundamentals are supporting prices, and cap rates have compressed over the past few years. The improving fundamentals are also expanding the buyer pool. More than half of the properties that sold during the first quarter were acquired by out-of-state buyers. Recent Transactions in the Market MULTIFAMILY SALES ACTIVITY Property Name Street Address Units Sales Price Price per Unit Rillito Village 37 N 1st Ave., Tucson 272 $,8, $47,59 Desert Springs 671 E Golf Links Rd., Tucson 248 $11,5, $44,556 Mission Creek 51 W Ajo Way, Tucson 2 $8,5, $42,5 SUBMARKET STATISTICS Submarket Name Annual Rent Change (%) Northwest Tucson 3.8% 3.9% $857 $8 5.2% Northeast Tucson 4.7% 7.8% $932 $ % Oro Valley/Catalina 4.9% 6.6% $681 $ % Catalina Foothills % $822 $ North Central Tucson $6 $63 2.2% University 5.9% 8.1% $649 $ % East Tucson % $758 $ % Southwest Tucson 7.2% 9.3% $57 $56 1.8% Flowing Wells % $626 $62 4.% South Tucson/Airport % $583 $ Pantano/Lakeside % $533 $5 4.1% Tucson Mountain Foothills % $6 $63 1. South Central Tucson 11.9% 6.9% $722 $ % Southeast Tucson 18.8%.8% $526 $526.% 2 Tucson Metro Area Research & Forecast Report 2 Multifamily Colliers International

3 Employment: Employment Overview > > Employers in Tucson continue to add workers to payrolls. Total employment in the market has expanded by 2.7 percent in the past months, with the addition of 1, new jobs. Payrolls have expanded in five of the past six quarters. > > The financial activities sector in Tucson is fairly small, but has been expanding at a rapid pace. In the past year, financial employment has surged by more than percent, with the addition of 2,7 jobs. Employers in the financial sector have added workers each year since 2. > > The education and health services sector continues to be a source of employment growth in Tucson. Employers have added more than 3, jobs in the past year and a number of groups have plans to add more workers. Community Health Systems, Northwest Medical Center and Tucson Medical Centers have announced plans to add hundreds of workers. Year-over-Year Jobs Added (s) Number of Jobs Annual Change 3.% 2. 2.% 1. 1.%..% % Year-over-Year Employment Change Construction and Permitting: > > Developers delivered approximately 7 apartment units to the Tucson market during the past months, including 9 units in the first quarter. New construction has averaged roughly 1, units per year since 2. > > Projects totaling nearly 75 units are under construction and scheduled to be delivered in 2. This year s new construction will represent a 1.3 percent increase to metrowide inventory. > > Permitting activity was mixed during the first quarter. After rising by approximately 1 percent in 2, permitting for multifamily units was nearly identical from the first quarter 2 to the first quarter of this year. Single-family permit issuance rose more than percent from year-earlier levels. Construction Trends: By Submarket Units Completions 2-2 Under Construction 1,4 1,2 1, : Quarterly Trends > > Multifamily vacancy continues to improve in Tucson. The rate ended the first quarter at 6.8 percent, 17 basis points lower than one year ago. This is the lowest vacancy figure in Tucson since early 27. > > Renter demand for apartments was quite strong in the first quarter, with net absorption totaling more than 9 units to start 2. in the first quarter fell 1 basis points from the year-end 2 figure, and is forecast to tick lower for the remainder of this year. > > has been tightening in the large Class B and Class C segments of the market. in Class B buildings has declined by 2 basis points in the past year to 6.3 percent. In Class C properties, the rate has also fallen by 2 basis points year over year, ending the first quarter at 8.2 percent. Rate 11.% 1. 1.% 9. 9.% 8. 8.% 7. 7.% 6. 6.% 3 Tucson Metro Area Research & Forecast Report 2 Multifamily Colliers International

4 Rents: > > After rising in the second half of last year, asking rents continued to push higher in the first quarter. Average asking rents advanced 1.8 percent in the first three months of 2, reaching $669 per month. > > In the past months, metrowide asking rents have increased by 4 percent. Asking rents rose 3 percent in 2 and are forecast to gain approximately 4.5 percent by the end of this year. > > The strongest rent increases are being recorded in the Class A segment of the market. Class A asking rents have spiked by 8.5 percent in the past months to $962 per month, or $1.3 per square foot, per month. The pace of rent growth in the Class A segment is more than two times as steep as the market as a whole. Investment Trends: > > Sales velocity spiked by more than 35 percent from the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of 2. This marked the strongest single quarter of activity in the Tucson multifamily market since late-2. > > The median price in the first quarter was $44,6 per unit, 2 percent lower than the median price from the fourth quarter of last year. The median price year to date is up more than 35 percent from the median price for all of 2. > > Cap rates inched lower during the first quarter, dipping approximately 2 basis points to approximately 6.6 percent. Cap rates also dipped slightly in 2. Interest rates also fell during the first quarter. Quarterly Rent Trends Asking Rent per Month $68 $67 $66 $65 $64 $63 $62 $61 $6 Investment Trends Median Price per Unit (s) $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ YTD Price per Unit Cap Rate 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% Average Cap Rate 4 Tucson Metro Area Research & Forecast Report 2 Multifamily Colliers International

5 Outlook: The Tucson multifamily market is positioned for a year of strong fundamental improvement. is already at a cyclical low, and will likely improve further by year end. Rents are rising in response to tight conditions, a trend that is forecast to continue. Tucson has worked its way through the economic downturn and, while it took a while for the recovery to gain traction, the market is now clearly in an expansion period. The second quarter will be an interesting barometer of the market s strength. Multifamily vacancy typically ticks higher in the second quarter as students from the University of Arizona exit the market at the end of the traditional school year. The average vacancy increase is approximately 5 basis points in the second quarter; a more modest rise would be another sign of the health of the market. Employment Forecast The Tucson multifamily market is expected to continue to strengthen through the remainder of this year. Sales velocity has increased in each of the past two years and 2 is off to a fast start. Per-unit prices are pushing higher and cap rates have compressed, as improving fundamentals are brightening the prevailing market sentiment. Activity should remain strong, as the buyer pool is expanding and there is a sufficient inventory of multifamily buildings available for sale at all ends of the pricing spectrum. Tucson was fairly late entering into the recovery, which should mean that there is a longer period of expansion to come. Businesses are forecast to continue to add workers, which will support the improving multifamily conditions that are fueling the investment market. Rent Forecast Net Employment Change,5 1, 7,5 5, 2,5-2, * Jobs Gained/Lost Annual Change 3% 2% 1% % -1% Year-over-Year Change Average Aksing Rent $7 $69 $68 $67 $66 $65 $64 $63 $62 $61 $ * Annual Change 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% Year-over-Year Rent Change Construction and Permitting Forecast Forecast 1,4 11% 1,2 1% Permits/Units 1, Rate 9% 8% 7% 6% * MF Permits Completions * FOR MORE INFORMATION Bob Mulhern Senior Managing Director Greater Phoenix Jim Keeley SIOR Founding Partner Scottsdale Office Pete O Neil Research Director Greater Phoenix Copyright 2 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Colliers International Greater Phoenix 239 E. Camelback Road, Suite 1 Phoenix, AZ colliers.com/greaterphoenix 5 North American Research & Forecast Report Q4 2 Office Market Outlook Colliers International

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