Weekly Live Cattle Contract Monthly Live Cattle Contract Weekly Feeder Cattle Contract Monthly Feeder Cattle Contract
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1 Weekly Live Cattle Contract Monthly Live Cattle Contract Weekly Feeder Cattle Contract Monthly Feeder Cattle Contract 1
2 Cattle Outlook Fed cattle market will trend down: Domestic demand was strong. International demand and trade are weak. Competing meats. Feeder cattle and calf prices will weaken for the next several years: Herd building. Cheaper feed will be mismanaged. USDA Quarterly Cattle Price Forecasts Date Fed Cattle 7 8# Feeder 5 6# Calf 215: VI $ $ $ : I $ $ $ : II $ $ $ : III $ $ $ : VI $ $ $ : I $ $ $ : II $ $ $ : III $ $ $ : VI $ $ $ CATTLE ON FEED US Total, Monthly Avg. 9/ FEEDLOT PLACEMENTS US Total, Monthly Avg. 9/ C-N-1 9/23/15 C-N-8 9/23/15 2
3 CATTLE PLACED WEIGHING LESS THAN 7 POUNDS 1, Plus Capacity Feedlots, U.S., Monthly Avg. 9/ CATTLE PLACED WEIGHING MORE THAN 7 POUNDS 1, Plus Capacity Feedlots, U.S., Monthly Avg. 9/ C-N-8A 9/23/15 C-N-8B 9/23/ FED CATTLE MARKETINGS US Total, Monthly 6.5 CATTLE ON FEED OVER 9 DAYS US Total, Monthly Avg. 9/ Avg. 9/ C-M-11 9/23/15, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-N-11 9/23/15 3
4 5 CATTLE ON FEED OVER 12 DAYS US Total, Monthly Thou. Head 725 CATTLE SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Avg. 9/ , Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-N-12 9/23/15 & USDA NASS C-S-8 1/16/15 Thou. Head HEIFER SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Thou. Head STEER SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly & USDA NASS C-S-13 1/16/15 & USDA NASS C-S-17 1/16/15 4
5 Pounds 93 STEER DRESSED WEIGHT Federally Inspected, Weekly Pounds 137 LIVE WEIGHT STEER AND HEIFER Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle Area, Weekly & USDA NASS C-S-18 1/16/15 & USDA NASS C-S-26 1/16/15 Thou. Head 2 CALF SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Thou. Head 15 TOTAL COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly & USDA NASS C-S-32 1/16/15 & USDA NASS C-S-14 1/16/15 5
6 Thou. Head 9 BEEF COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Thou. Head 75 DAIRY COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly & USDA NASS C-S-34 1/16/15 & USDA NASS C-S-35 1/16/15 2 COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTION Monthly 225 COMMERCIAL PORK PRODUCTION Monthly JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV 165 JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV M-S-2 9/25/15, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC M-S-5 9/25/15 6
7 BEEF IN COLD STORAGE End of the Month JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV PORK IN COLD STORAGE Frozen and Cured, End of the Month JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data Source: USDA/NASS M-S-9 9/22/15 Data Source: USDA/NASS M-S-1 9/22/ CHICKEN IN COLD STORAGE End of the Month JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV TURKEY IN COLD STORAGE End of the Month JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data Source: USDA/NASS P-S-5 9/22/15 Data Source: USDA/NASS P-S-4 9/22/15 7
8 1 TOTAL CHEESE IN COLD STORAGE End of the Month 65 RETAIL BEEF PRICE All Fresh, Monthly JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data Source: USDA/NASS 9/22/15 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA ERS M-P-11 1/15/15 4 RETAIL PORK PRICE Monthly 16 RETAIL CHICKEN PRICE Whole Fresh, Monthly JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV 125 JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA ERS M-P-5 1/15/15 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA ERS M-P-6 1/15/15 8
9 RETAIL PRICE COMPARISON Monthly Retail Pork Price Retail Chicken Price, Whole Fresh Retail Beef Price $ Per lbs LIVE TO CUTOUT BEEF PRICE SPREAD Monthly Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA ERS M-P-11 1/15/15 & USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-2 1/15/15 $ Per lbs CUTOUT TO RETAIL BEEF PRICE SPREAD Monthly Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $ Per Cwt CHOICE STEER PRICE vs BREAKEVEN Cattle Feeding, S. Plains, Monthly Latest Data: September Steer Price Breakeven Projected Breakeven & USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-4 1/15/15 & USDA NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-21 1/15/15 9
10 $ Per Steer 3 AVERAGE RETURNS TO CATTLE FEEDERS Feeding 75 Lb. Steers. S. Plains, Monthly Latest Data: September $ Per Cwt SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES 5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly & USDA NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-22 1/15/15 $ Per Cwt MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES 7 8 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly $ Per Cwt MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES 5 6 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC C-P-49, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-54 1
11 $ Per Cwt. 37 MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES 5 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly $ Per Cwt. 28 BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUE Choice 6 9 Lbs., Carcass, Weekly , Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-49A C-P-62 $ Per Cwt. 18. STEER HIDE AND OFFAL VALUE Live Animal Basis, Weekly $ Per Cwt. 16 CHOICE MINUS SELECT BEEF PRICES Carcass Cutout Value 6 9 Lbs., Weekly C-P-39, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-68 11
12 $ Per Cwt SLAUGHTER COW PRICES Southern Plains, 85 9% Lean, Weekly WHOLESALE BEEF RIBEYE PRICES Boneless, Light, Weekly C-P-35 M-P WHOLESALE BEEF LOIN STRIP PRICES Boneless x1, Weekly 35 WHOLESALE BEEF CHUCK PRICES Boneless 2 Piece, Weekly
13 WHOLESALE BEEF BOTTOM ROUND PRICES Pounds, Weekly WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICES Fresh, 9% Lean, Weekly M-P-22 M-P WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICES Fresh, 5% Lean, Weekly 16 WHOLESALE HAM PRICES Trimmed Selected, Pounds, Weekly M-P-25 M-P-27 13
14 WHOLESALE PORK LOIN PRICES ¼ Inch Trim, Vacuum Sealed, Weekly Index Value 12 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Annual, Using CPI 199= M-P-28 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Index Value 12 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Third Quarter, Using CPI 199= Index Value 12 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Fourth Quarter, Using CPI 199= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 14
15 Index Value 12 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX First Quarter, Using CPI 199= Index Value 12 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Second Quarter, Using CPI 199= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Thou. Head 15 SLAUGHTER STEERS & HEIFERS IMPORTS FROM CANADA Weekly MT 6 US EXPORTS OF BEEF MUSCLE CUTS Weekly Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Canada Japan Mexico Korean Rep. & USDA APHIS 1/16/15 & USDA APHIS 1/16/15 15
16 MT TOTAL U.S. EXPORTS OF BEEF MUSCLE CUTS Weekly Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Thou. Head US CATTLE IMPORTS FROM MEXICO Monthly Data Source: USDA FAS 1/16/15 Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-3 1/7/15 Thou. Head US CATTLE IMPORTS FROM CANADA Monthly US BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-4 1/7/15 Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-15 1/7/15 16
17 27 US BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly US NET BEEF IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-16 1/7/15 Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-31 1/7/15 7 US BEEF IMPORTS FROM CANADA Carcass Weight, Monthly 8 US BEEF EXPORTS TO JAPAN Carcass Weight, Monthly Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-26 1/7/15 Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-37 1/7/15 17
18 US BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETS Carcass Weight, Monthly Japan Canada Mexico South Korea Bil. $ US BEEF INDUSTRY EXPORT VALUES Annual Live Cattle Beef & Veal Hides & Skins Variety Meats Data Source: USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Tallow & Greases I-N-7 2/25/15 Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-35 1/7/15 Bil. $ 1 US BEEF INDUSTRY IMPORT VALUES Annual Bil. $ 7 US BEEF INDUSTRY NET EXPORT VALUES Annual Live Cattle Beef & Veal Hides & Skins Variety Meats Tallow & Greases Live Cattle Beef & Veal Data Source: USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-71 2/25/15 Data Source: USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-72 2/25/15 18
19 Bil. $ US PORK INDUSTRY NET EXPORT VALUES Annual Live Hogs Pork & Sausages Other Items Total JANUARY 1 TOTAL COW INVENTORY U.S., Annual Data Source: USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-75 2/25/ C-N-2A 7/28/ CALF CROP July Estimates, U.S., Annual 215 = 34.3 Million Head +1.2 Percent JANUARY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIES Residual, Outside Feedlots, U.S C-N-18B 7/28/15 C-N-3 7/28/15 19
20 55 JULY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIES Residual, Outside Feedlots, U.S. 7. HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS January 1, U.S % C-N-32 7/28/15 C-N-38 7/28/15 6. HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS July 1, U.S. 135 TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY BY CYCLE U.S., January % C-N-37 7/28/15 C-N- 7/28/15 2
21 PERCENT CHANGE IN CATTLE INVENTORY U.S., January $ Per Cwt AVERAGE ANNUAL CATTLE PRICES Southern Plains lb Steer Calves 7 8lb Feeder Steers Fed Steers, Analysis by LMIC C-N-48 7/28/15, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC C-P-6 9/24/15 $ Per Cow 5 3 ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNS Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual Cattle Outlook Expansion this year and next and next. Reasonable feed costs. Worst case scenario softening demand & strong competing meat production hard fall. Best case scenario last year was it not again need to see increased trade Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC C-P-66 9/24/15 21
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