An Outlook for Natural Gas. Laszlo Varro Head of Gas, Coal and Power

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1 An Outlook for Natural Gas Laszlo Varro Head of Gas, Coal and Power

2 The march of gas is not new The ratio of global gas and oil production Non conventional gas Qatar Liberalization of US upstream West Siberia 0.1 0

3 Reserves (TCM) Don t think gas reserves stay the same!! Total world reserves Source: Cedigaz Most of the reserve increases in recent years have come from upward revisions of fields under production or under development. Some significant conventional discoveries have been made over the past years in Brazil and East-Africa.

4 Why would you call these enterprises oil companies? 5 year cumulative change in upstream production for the top 5 IOCs, thousand BOE oil gas

5 Gas infrastructure will remain capital intensive 0.5 For every dollar of upstream investment the amount to be spent on transport infrastructure (pipelines, tankers etc), USD oil gas

6 Coal transportation is cheaper than LNG and does not need long lead time infrastructure projects

7 Gas and renewables in a decarbonizing system Dispatchable power plants Demand side Response (via smart grid) Energy storage facilities Interconnection with adjacent markets Industrial A biomass-fired power plant residential A pumped hydro facility Scandinavian interconnections

8 As gas backs renewables, its load factor declines 4000 Average utilization of EU gas power plant capacity in WEO 450, hours Leading to concerns on the adequacy of market design

9 North America: where abundant gas will end up?

10 So, you have seen the movie

11 Water management issues: nuisance or an Achilles heel?

12 Land use: not really an issue in Northern Texas

13 Intensive development in densely populated regions?

14 Shale Gas and Coal in the US power system: the fight of the century

15 Around 60% of incremental gas production is absorbed in electricity Hard Coal to CCGT Infrastructure barriers and location of coal and gas plants limit further coal to gas switch Will old coal plants in the Midwest be replaced by gas?

16 But: around 2/3 of US coal is the cheapest energy on planet Earth USD/t 120 Predominantly Appalachian basins 100 Predominantly Interior basins Predominantly Central Appalachia 80 Predominantly Western basins Predominantly Northern Appalachia Predominantly Illinois Basin 20 Predominantly Powder River Basin Mt

17 Coal in Europe an old star back on stage?

18 Wind and solar will constrain EU gas demand if policies are maintained 500 EU wind and solar generation, Twh 400 Remaining German nuclear years demand growth at pre-recession trend historical IEA projection

19 Can emission trading reform restore the competitiveness of gas in the EU? coal gas

20 The real non-conventional gas resource

21 Renewable and energy efficiency policies play a major role in breaking oil indexation 2000 EU power generation with the same CO2 target, actual and coal and gas only bcm gas imports wind and solar coal gas actual no feed in tariffs, only coal to gas Renewables and energy efficiency have a potential to replicate the strategic effect of the nuclear built up after oil shocks

22 The exporter s dilemma: premium pricing or volume?

23 Why China is interested in natural gas 1: growing cost of domestic coal 9

24 Air quality is increasingly an energy policy driver

25 A small coal to gas switch in China would have large gas market impacts USA The energy content of coal outside power & steel is 400 bcm gas China

26 Can domestic shale gas drive out LNG from China as well? Complex geology Industry is in a learning phase Unclear price regulation Pipeline network, 3 rd party access Dominant expectation: slow ramp up, meaningful impact only Current US shale gas production would be 7% of China s energy mix

27 Australia: the next wave of supply 140 billion usd chases the same input pool LNG projects in Australia (as of May 2012)

28 Floating LNG: a disruptive technology?

29 East Africa: a major new frontier, but it will need a decade BG Tanzania BG/Statoil BG Anadarko ENI Mozambique Anadarko

30 What is common in the two destinations?

31 Winds of change: an increasing diversification of LNG players

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