Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 November 2013

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1 Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 November 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today US consumer confidence for November (Conference Board) is expected to rise slightly following a steep decline in October partly related to the government shutdown. Apart from normalisation following the shutdown, lower gasoline prices and strong equity markets are giving short-term support to sentiment. While US housing starts are delayed until 18 December, building permits for October will be released today. Permits have been softening over the past four months following the rise in mortgage rate. We look for a decline in October of % m/m. US house prices from both FHFA and Case/Shiller are also released today. Price gains have weakened a bit recently. We look for this pattern to continue with house prices still rising but at a more moderate rate going forward. ECB's Mersch speaks in Frankfurt. Mersch is normally in the hawkish camp but has recently also expressed openness to further stimulus if necessary. The UK will hold a Treasury Committee hearing on the Inflation Report. We expect the BoE to repeat that the unexpectedly strong growth momentum is the reason that the MPC lowered its unemployment rate projection and that there could be a case for not raising the Bank Rate immediately at the 7% unemployment threshold. In Sweden, we expect PPI to remain muted. For more on Scandi markets see page 2. Selected market news There were no major surprises in the minutes released from the 31 October Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting. Two board members expressed some concern about the ambitious aim of reaching the 2% inflation target within a two-year framework and want a more flexible wording of the inflation target but a clear majority is backing the 2% target. We do not expect the BoJ to announce new easing measures this year but the economy is heading for a significant fiscal tightening in April next year and the BoJ could be forced to ease monetary policy even more aggressively at that stage. Market overview Note: * The itraxx Europe Index shows the spread development for the most liquid investment grade CDS contracts in the euro credit market. **The itraxx Europe Crossover show the spread development of the most liquid non-investment grade CDS contracts in the euro credit market. ***The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index shows the spread development for the most liquid investment grade CDS contracts in the US credit market. Source: Bloomberg 07:30 1 day +/-,% S&P500 (close) S&P500 fut (chng from close) Nikkei Hang Seng :00 07:30 +/-, bp US 2y gov US 10y gov itraxx Europe (IG) itraxx Xover (Non IG) /-, % EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/GBP EUR/SEK EUR/NOK USD Oil Brent, USD Gold, USD In the US pending home sales continued to slide in October after dropping 4.6% m/m in September. Pending home sales have been on a downward trend since June, as the combined impact of higher mortgage rates and payback from a fast forwarding of sales earlier this year has weighted on recent sales activity. Other housing market indicators have, however, shown signs of stabilisation lately and fundamentals remain supportive of further recovery in the housing market next year. In terms of markets, JPY has strengthened overnight, which has weighted on the Nikkei index. AUD got support from the deputy central bank governor stating that the threshold for currency intervention is high. Oil prices have taken back some of the decline following the Iran deal yesterday. Senior Analyst Signe Roed-Frederiksen Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 4 of this report.

2 Scandi markets today Swedish October PPI is due for release. We expect a 0.1% m/m decline and a year-onyear rate of -%. A small krona appreciation and slightly lower energy prices are expected to dampen prices. US S&P500 future Fixed Income markets With no major events scheduled for today, focus will be on the supply in the EUR government bond market. Netherlands will be printing in the Apr-16 today. Despite the upcoming supply the bond is trading relatively tight to Germany with a current yield spread of 16bp versus the APR-16 OBL. Among the Nordics Norway will tap NOK2bn in the May-19. With a spread to the German counterpart of close to 150bp the entry seems attractive - also from an FX perspective. FX markets Today the FX markets will keep a close eye on the Treasury hearing on the BoE inflation report. We believe the message will be repeated that growth has gained momentum, lending support to GBP. Short EUR/GBP looks attractive as a relative monetary policy play in US 10y gov yield Key figures and events Tuesday, November 26, 2013 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous 6:00 JPY Small business confidence Index Nov :30 SEK PPI m/m y/y Oct 0.7% -1.1% 10:00 ITL Consumer confidence Index Nov :00 DEM CDU/CSU holds coliation talks with SPD 14:30 USD Building permits 1000 (m/m) Oct (-%) :00 USD S&P Case Shiller house prices Index Sep :00 USD Consumer confidence Index Nov :45 NZD Trade balance NZD m Oct Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets Global FX EUR/USD (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS) Scandi FX EUR/SEK (LHS) EUR/NOK (RHS) Fri Mon Wed Thu Mon November 2013

3 Today s market data: 26 November S&P500 Intraday, % STOCKS DJSTOXX50 Max Max 1.2 OM XC Min Min OM XS OSE BX Grey line indicates closing of Danish markets DOW JONES NASDAQ 1 month 2.4% 1 month 1.6% S&P % Year-to-date 26.4% Year-to-date 12.6% NIKKEI (07:30) % FX & COMMODITIES EUR 17:00 07:30 +/- USD JPY day Max ## GBP month Min ## NOK Year-t-date SEK DKK CRB C R B, R aw PLN USD 17:00 07:30 +/- JPY day month -5 GBP month Year-to-date 3.37 CHF Year-t-date YIELDS & INTEREST RATES Go ld, $ 1M future USD-Yields Intraday Spread, P o licy R ate 3M bp 17:00 07:30 +/-, bp 2.78 USD2Y USD10Y USD USD 10Y Max 0.3 Max EUR USD 30Y Min 0.3 Min 2.7 GBP JPY 10Y DKK SEK :30(-1)* 17:00 +/-, bp NOK DEM 10Y USD2Y (lhs) EUR/USD Intraday USD10Y (rhs) Eurostoxx Intraday, % Grey line indicates opening of US markets 1 07:30 07:30 Close Close PLN DKK 10Y % 0.6% % +/- +/- % -0.1% Oil, B rent, $ Industrials SEK 10Y NOK 10Y % PLN 10Y * As of closing previous trading day Y Yield Spread to Germany USDJPYGBPFRF ITL DKKSEKNOKPLN US Yield Curve ## M ax ## M ax ### ## M in ## M in ### USD2Y USD5Y USD10Y D-t-D +/-, bp (right axis) 07:30 (left axis) 1 month ago (left axis) German Yield Curve DEM2Y DEM5YR DEM10Y D-t-D +/-, bp (right axis) 07:30 (left axis) 1 month ago (left axis) C redit spread, it raxx s. 11* Credit spreads Swap Spread, bp** :00 07:30 +/- 07:30 1 day 1 month USD 10Y Europe (IG) JPY 10Y HiVol Xover (N-IG) :30(-1)* 17:00 +/ EUR 10Y DKK 10Y Finan. Sr SEK 10Y Finan. Sub Nov Jan Feb Apr May Jul Aug Oct Nov NOK 10Y Non-finan. itraxx Europe (IG) (left axis) itraxx Xover (Non IG) (right axis) * As of closing previous trading day * Ask price ** Ask price 3 26 November 2013

4 Disclosure This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S ( Danske Bank ). Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request. The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of highquality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors upon request. Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. Expected updates Danske Daily is updated on a daily basis. First date of publication Please see the front page of this research report for the first date of publication. Price-related data is calculated using the closing price from the day before publication November 2013

5 General disclaimer This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e. financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect to any such financial instruments) ( Relevant Financial Instruments ). The research report has been prepared independently and solely on the basis of publicly available information that Danske Bank considers to be reliable. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this research report. The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date hereof. These opinions are subject to change, and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor of any other changes related to the information provided in this research report. This research report is not intended for retail customers in the United Kingdom or the United States. This research report is protected by copyright and is intended solely for the designated addressee. It may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, by any recipient for any purpose without Danske Bank s prior written consent. Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States This research report is distributed in the United States by Danske Markets Inc., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and subsidiary of Danske Bank, pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6 and related interpretations issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The research report is intended for distribution in the United States solely to "U.S. institutional investors" as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6. Danske Markets Inc. accepts responsibility for this research report in connection with distribution in the United States solely to U.S. institutional investors. Danske Bank is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In addition, the research analysts of Danske Bank who have prepared this research report are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA, but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-u.s. jurisdiction. Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting Danske Markets Inc. directly and should be aware that investing in non- U.S. financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of non-u.s. issuers may not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be subject to the reporting and auditing standards of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission November 2013

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