2015 Texas Economic Outlook: Tapping on the Brakes Keith Phillips Sr. Economist and Research Officer
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1 215 Texas Economic Outlook: Tapping on the Brakes Keith Phillips Sr. Economist and Research Officer The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System. Any secondary distribution of this material is strictly prohibited.
2 National Economy Picking Up Consumer spending picked up in 214 as housing prices and stock market improved, and consumer debt fell Declining energy prices in second half provided a further boost International demand and strong dollar remain a challenge to the manufacturing sector if energy prices remain low, US economy should pick up further in 215
3 Home Construction Continues to Grow Although at a Slower Pace Millions, units Billions, $ Real single-family construction Single-family building permits Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau and author s calculations.
4 Home Prices Continue to Increase Index, 2= U.S. Texas California Florida Nevada Source: FHFA House Price Index
5 Household Balance Sheets in Better Shape Ratio, personal debt per capita/personal income per capita Auto loan 8.1% HE revolving 4.3% Student loan 9.8% Credit card 5.9% Other 2.8% U.S. Mortgage 69.1% Note: Data are through third quarter, (Q3).92 (Q3) Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. Texas Student loan 11.1% Credit card 7.2% HE revolving 1.% Auto loan 14.8% Other 4.4% Texas Mortgage 61.6%
6 Average Job Growth of 26K per Month in 214 After 199K in 213 (2.3% vs 1.8%) Thousands,SA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
7 U.S. Leading Index Suggests Continued Good Growth over Next 6 Months Annualized % change month 12-month Source: Conference Board, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
8 SAAR, Percent RGDP Grew 2.4% in 214, January Blue Chip Survey Projects 2.8% in % Q4/Q % Q4/Q % Q4/Q % Q4/Q Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators
9 TX Economy Has Grown Above Trend and Stronger than Most States In past five years growth in energy, construction and exports provided a strong stimulus to Texas. 214 growth was broad based across sectors. Energy, construction, business services, health care, exports and tourism strong. Government sector improved. In 215, low oil prices and labor market tightness will likely restrain growth. Strong dollar may dampen exports. I expect job growth will slow in 215 to between 1.% and 2.% (from 3.4% in 214).
10 NOTE: Shaded areas represent Texas recession. Texas Economy Growing Well Above Trend (Texas Business Cycle Index) 12 M/M SAAR % trend
11 ND FL GA UT NV TX CO OR WA CA NC SC AR AZ TN US DE ID KY MA LA WY MI WI OK NY AL NM MD CT IN IA KS OH NH MN RI PA IL DC VT AK VA SD MO NJ NE MS MT ME HI WV Texas Ranked Sixth in Job Growth in 214 Percent Change, Dec Dec TX U.S Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
12 Texas Jobs Growing Faster Than Nation s Percent, Job Growth Y/Y 5 U.S. 4 Texas Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
13 Job Growth is Broad-Based Across Large Texas Metro Areas Nonfarm Employment Index Aug. 28=1 12 Austin Houston San Antonio Dallas TX Ft. Worth Corpus Christi El Paso U.S.* *Indexed from U.S. Peak Employment in January 28 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
14 Texas Unemployment Rate Low and Falling Percent, SA US unemployment rate (Jan.) 5.5 Texas unemployment rate (Jan.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
15 Job Growth Broad-Based Across Industries Dec/Dec Percent Change 2 Oil & Gas (Job Growth ) Construction Trade, Transportation, & Utilities Manufacturing Business Services Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate Leisure & Hospitality Information Services Health & Education Government Share of Total Employment -5 (2.6%) (5.5%) (2.1%) (7.6%) (13.4%) (6.1%) (1.3%) (1.8%) (13.2%) (15.9%) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
16 Texas Construction Contract Values Increased Strongly Last Year Real $, Mil 5MMA, SA Total 5 4 Residential 3 Non Residential 2 1 Non Building Source: F.W. Dodge, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
17 TX Home Inventories Remain at Historically Low Levels Months Texas U.S Jan Source: Multiple Listing Service
18 Mortgage Foreclosures Back to Normal levels but Delinquencies Remain Elevated TX Delinquencies US Delinquencies TX Foreclosures Started US Foreclosures Started Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
19 Low TX Office Vacancy Rate Likely to Motivate Continued Strength in Office Construction Real, Millions $, 5MMA Office Vacancy Rate Office and Bank Buildings Contract Value Percent '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 Source: F.W. Dodge, CBRE, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 5
20 TX Manufacturing Production Growth Slow, New Orders Falling Index Feb Production Volume of New Orders -8-1 Jun-4 Dec-4 Jun-5 Dec-5 Jun-6 Dec-6 Jun-7 Dec-7 Jun-8 Dec-8 Jun-9 Dec-9 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15
21 Texas Exports Have Weakened in Recent Months as Value of the Dollar has Risen Index, SA, Real Jan. 2= Texas Value of the Dollar Index Jan. 1988= Texas U.S. minus Texas Source: U.S. Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics, WISERtrade Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 6.
22 Texas State and Local Government Jobs Near 21 Peak Index, Jan 2 = Texas U.S. Texas State and Local share of Total Nonfarm Jobs - 14.% U.S. State and Local Share of Total Nonfarm Jobs- 13.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
23 Oil Prices Low, Drilling Rig Count In Sharp Decline Number 1 Rig Count Nominal $ Oil price Gas price(*1) Source: Oil and Gas Journal, Baker Hughes.
24 Low Oil Prices Will Likely Dampen TX Job Growth in 215 Oil prices have declined over 5% since last July, initial drop from $16 to $8 likely was good for TX economy Sustained drop from $8 to $5 will hurt TX economy - $5 is below the breakeven point for majority of shale drilling. Texas GDP growth will likely weaken more than jobs as output per worker in mining is about 4.6 times more than average for the state.
25 Energy s Share of TX Economy Increased with Shale Drilling Percent, SA 5 Percent Mining as a Share of Nominal Texas GDP 13.5 % % Mining as a Share of Total Texas Employment NOTE: GDP values prior to 1997 and employment values prior to 199 extrapolated from SIC coded data. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, FRB Dallas.
26 TX Job Growth Relative to Nation Impacted by Oil Prices Percent difference in TX and U.S. growth, 12MMA Texas Job Growth Relative to U.S. Real price, $, monthly average Real Oil Price SOURCES: Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
27 Recent Weakness in Leading Index Led By Declining Oil Prices and Rising Dollar Texas Leading Index Components, 3 month change November -January Net Change in Texas Leading Index -1.3 Texas Value of the Dollar.31 U.S. Leading Index Real Oil Price -1.3 Well Permits -.47 New Unemployment Claims.15 Texas Stock Index.45 Help Wanted Index -.25 Average Weekly Hours
28 Texas Job Growth Likely to be about 1. 2.% in 215, down from 3.4% in 214 Millions of Jobs 12.5 Index (1987=1) Leading Index Texas Nonfarm Employment and TLI Forecast (with 8% confidence band) Jan- Jan-2 Jan-4 Jan-6 Jan-8 Jan-1 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, author's calculations 95
29 Austin, San Antonio have a Small Share of Jobs in the Oil and Gas Industry El Paso* Brownsville-Harlingen Mcallen-Edinburg-Pharr Sherman-Denison San Antonio Beaumont-Port Arthur Austin-Round Rock Lubbock Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Laredo Amarillo College Station-Bryan Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land Corpus Christi Tyler San Angelo Abilene Victoria Longview Odessa Midland Share of Employment in Mining Sector *El Paso data as of 28. All others as of 212. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
30 Austin Economic Growth Mixed in job growth decelerated to 3.3%, from 4.3% in 213 Lagged state job growth for first time since 23 % Growth Dec./Dec Prof., scientific & technical services Manufacturing contracted by.7% - retail also weak Construction, health and professional, scientific and technical services very strong Job growth weakened in second half data revision? Low unemployment rate constraining job growth? Labor demand remains strong going into Total jobs Manufacturing
31 Monthly Austin Economic Indicators available from the Dallas Fed Includes analysis of regional business conditions, labor and housing markets, and leading indicators Published first Thursday of each month /update/aus/ Austin Economic Indicators
32 Summary U.S. economy picked up in 214 lower oil prices at year end stimulating further gains in consumer spending TX growth was strong and broad-based in initial oil price decline from $16 to $8 had positive impact. Movement of oil prices from $8 to $5 will have negative impacts but growth likely to remain positive. This year Texas job growth likely to moderate to 1.-2.% Bottom line: Texas likely to continue to grow but not nearly as strongly as last year.
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