Global Solutions Consulting Group NATURAL CATASTROPHE RISK CONSULTING

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1 Global Solutions Consulting Group NATURAL CATASTROPHE RISK CONSULTING

2 Global Solutions Consulting Group Recent events around the globe have highlighted the impact natural hazards can have across wide geographic regions and the importance for clients to better understand their risks and exposures. It has become evident over the past 50 years that insured and economic losses due to natural hazards are trending upwards and it is unlikely this will reverse. Although natural hazards are considered rare, when we look at the statistics - most corporations have a 30% chance of experiencing an earthquake, flood or wind related natural disaster in the next 20 years. These low frequency high impact events cause significant property damage and business interruption to global business operations and ultimately impact on the company s profits and employees, as well as damaging reputation and market share. As part of one of the world s leading risk management and insurance intermediaries, Willis Global Solutions Consulting Group (GSCG) can offer a wide range of catastrophe risk consulting services to help companies better identify and quantify their natural hazard risks and assist them in making more informed decisions to support their risk transfer and mitigation requirements.

3 Global Solutions Consulting Group STRATEGIC CAT REVIEW A Strategic CAT Review begins with an Exposure Review to identify where a Client s assets are situated geographically in terms of value and number of locations. For key regions the exposures are mapped to identify clusters (locations in close proximity) that could be affected by the same natural hazard events. A Natural Hazard Ranking Analysis is then undertaken to provide a first diagnosis of a client s peril exposure based on a qualitative and comparative ranking system. This assessment coupled with the Exposure Review can assist companies in shaping their risk management strategy for dealing with natural catastrophe issues, so that more informed decisions can be made around future strategic planning, risk management and acquisition activities. Historic records for portfolios located in natural hazard prone regions are also provided to support the analysis. Below are sample outputs from a Strategic CAT Review. Figure 1.1: Exposure Review Figure 1.2: Cluster Analysis

4 Figure 1.3: Natural Hazard Ranking Analysis Figure 1.4: Historic Events key benefits from a STRATEGIC CAT REVIEW Promotes awareness of the natural catastrophe hazards to which a company is exposed to on a global basis and the potential impacts. Assists companies in shaping their risk management strategy for dealing with natural catastrophes. Enables senior executives to make more informed decisions around their business continuity planning needs, particularly in natural catastrophe prone regions. Although natural hazards are considered rare, when we look at the statistics - most corporations have a 30% chance of experiencing an earthquake, flood or wind related natural disaster in the next 20 years.

5 CAT MODELLING Willis GSCG has extensive experience in the use of natural catastrophe models to help clients quantify their portfolio loss expectancies for varying return periods and perils including earthquake, windstorm and flood. Analyses can be undertaken for both probabilistic and scenario (single event) losses. CAT modelling draws together the fields of seismology, earthquake engineering, hydrology, meteorology, atmospheric science, mathematics, statistics, actuarial science and insurance. It is a highly complex and a sophisticated process and Willis GSCG provides our clients access to this niche and extremely important of area of risk management. A CAT modelling analysis provides estimates of probable maximum losses for Property Damage and Business Interruption based on a wide range of possible natural hazard events. Typical outputs include an Exceedance Probability (EP) curve, as illustrated below. Figure 2.1: Example evaluation of a simple insurance programme for earthquake, including the identification of activation and exhaustion levels. This information is used to review the suitability and competitiveness of the client s current insurance programme in relation to natural hazards. Figure 2.2: Illustrates how the use of additional data and risk mitigation measures can reduce the modelled loss estimates and potentially allow for premium savings.

6 key benefits from a cat modelling analysis Quantification of portfolio loss expectancies for varying return periods and perils including earthquake, windstorm and flood. Analyses can capture both probabilistic (multiple events) and scenario based (single event) loss assessments. Clients are able to objectively and scientifically review the suitability and competitiveness of their current insurance programme in relation to natural catastrophe perils. Identification of locations contributing the most to the expected losses, so clients can focus their attention on these high risk facilities as part of their natural catastrophe strategy. CAT RISK ENGINEERING For companies with large, individual facilities that are vulnerable to high levels of localised Property Damage and Business Interruption exposure, Willis GSCG can assist by undertaking detailed natural hazard risk assessments to help identify and quantify the natural hazard risks at a given facility. This analysis includes the following steps: 1. Detailed quantification of the local hazards for the site. 2. A site visit by our natural hazard risk engineers to inspect the main physical assets and operations. Identification of actual on-site vulnerabilities of the major buildings, process equipment, stock and on-site utility infrastructure deemed critical for continued operations. Literature review and comparison against similar assets that have suffered damage from past events. 3. Quantification of the site s Probable Maximum Loss (PML). Provision of loss estimates for Property Damage and Business Interruption to assist in risk transfer decisions and insurance programme structuring. 4. Provision of practical risk improvement measures. Recommending, where appropriate, cost-effective improvement measures to help mitigate property, operational and life safety risks at the plant. KEY BENEFITS FROM CAT RISK ENGINEERING Detailed PML assessment for a key facility to reduce uncertainty around the modelled losses by taking into account actual site specific vulnerabilities. Identification of Risk Improvements (recommendations) to help reduce losses or anticipated downtime from a natural hazard event. Recommendations can also help to improve general Business Continuity and Life Safety at the plant.

7 The enquiries we hear from our clients include: Which hazards is our business exposed to on a global scale? What are the potential Property Damage & Business Interruption (PD/BI) losses we may face on a regional and/or single site basis? How do these compare with our current retention levels, insurance limits and our general company risk tolerance? Can more than one facility be affected by the same natural hazard event? How exposed are our suppliers? What risk mitigation options can we consider to reduce our exposure? To assist in answering these questions, Willis GSCG offers the following services to help identify, evaluate and manage our client s risks: Strategic CAT Review Assists in shaping a company strategy for managing CAT risk exposures CAT Modelling Quantification of portfolio PD/BI losses review of current insurance limits for cat perils CAT Risk Engineering Quantification of single site PD/BI losses identification of vulnerabilities risk improvements to help reduce future losses and improve business continuity

8 Marc Lehmann Managing Director, Willis GSCG Catastrophe Risk Management Tel:+44 (0) Torolf Hamm Senior Catastrophe Risk Consultant, Willis GSCG Catastrophe Risk Management Tel:+44 (0) Junsang Choi Senior Catastrophe Risk Consultant, Willis GSCG Catastrophe Risk Management Tel:+44 (0) Ben Dryne Senior Catastrophe Risk Consultant, Willis Business Risk Solutions, Australia Tel Henrik Edwall Senior Risk Consultant, Risk Consulting Willis AB, Sweden Tel: henrik.edwall@willis.com Willis Limited The Willis Building 51 Lime Street London, EC3M 7DQ United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) Copyright 2012 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc. Nothing herein constitutes or should be construed as constituting legal or any other form of professional advice. This document is for general guidance only, is not intended to be relied upon, and action based on or in connection with anything contained herein should not be taken without first obtaining specific advice from a suitably qualified professional. The provision of any services by Willis Re Inc/ Willis Limited will be subject to the agreement of contractual terms and conditions acceptable to all parties Willis Limited, Registered number: England and Wales. Registered address: 51 Lime Street, London, EC3M 7DQ. A Lloyd s Broker. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. 9496/07/12

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