2014 Half-Year Natural Catastrophe Review. July 9, 2014
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1 2014 Half-Year Natural Catastrophe Review July 9, 2014
2 Agenda Introduction Sharon Cooper Press Spokesperson, Munich Re America US/Global Natural Catastrophe Update Carl Hedde Head of Risk Accumulation, Munich Re America Special Topic: Global Warming and Natural Climate Oscillations Peter Höppe Head of Geo Risk/Corporate Climate Center, Munich Re Economic Implications of Natural Catastrophe Losses Dr. Robert Hartwig President & Economist, Insurance Information Institute 2
3 US Natural Catastrophe in the First Half of 2014 Carl Hedde, Head of Risk Accumulation Munich Reinsurance America, Inc. Source: FEMA
4 MR NatCatSERVICE The world s largest database on natural catastrophes The Loss Database Today From 1980 until today all loss events; for USA and selected countries in Europe all loss events since Retrospectively, all great disasters since In addition, all major historical events starting from 79 AD eruption of Mt. Vesuvio (3,000 historical data sets). Currently more than 35,000 events 4
5 NatCatSERVICE Downloadcenter for statistics and analyses on natural disasters The downloadcenter provides free access: Annual statistics Long-term statistics Information on significant natural disasters Focus analyses NatCatSERVICE methodology, info brochure Publication Topics Geo 500% 450% 400% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0%
6 US Natural Catastrophe Update US Headlines First Half 2014 Insured losses in the United States in 2014 totaled $8.6 billion far below the 2000 to 2013 average loss of $11.0 billion (Jan-July). The eastern United States experiences its coldest winter in over a decade; Resulting damage is estimated to exceed $2 billion. Late onset of tornado season, caused by the extended winter, results in lowest level of insured thunderstorm loss in the past seven years. Early wildfire season onset in California due to persistent drought conditions. Minor earthquake shakes Los Angeles Basin. 6
7 US Natural Catastrophe Update Natural disaster losses in the U.S Based on perils
8 US Natural Catastrophe Update Loss events in the U.S Number of events (January June only) Number First Six Months in Events Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity) Meteorological events (Tropical storm, extratropical storm, convective storm, local storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Source: Munich Re, NatCatSERVICE 8
9 US Natural Catastrophe Update Loss events in the U.S Number of events (annual totals vs. first six months 2014) Number First Six Months in Events Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity) Meteorological events (Tropical storm, extratropical storm, convective storm, local storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Source: Munich Re, NatCatSERVICE 9
10 US Natural Catastrophe Update Loss events in the U.S Overall and insured losses (annual totals vs. first six months 2014) Overall losses totaled US$ 13.3bn; Insured losses totaled US$ 9.1bn bn US$ 200 Overall losses (in 2013 values)* Insured losses (in 2013 values)* Source: Munich Re, NatCatSERVICE *Losses adjusted to inflation based on country CPI 10
11 US Natural Catastrophe Update Loss events in the U.S Overall and insured losses (January June only) Overall losses totaled US$ 13.3bn; Insured losses totaled US$ 9.1bn bn US$ 80 Overall losses (in 2013 values)* Insured losses (in 2013 values)* Source: Munich Re, NatCatSERVICE *Losses adjusted to inflation based on country CPI 11
12 Notable U.S. Events in the First Half of 2014 Photo: NASA Source: Edward Stojakovic, Used under Creative Commons 2.0 License
13 US Natural Catastrophe Update Winter storms First Half 2014 Throughout the winter months, a persistent Omega Block pattern, combined with a weakened Polar Vortex, allowed frigid air to stream southward into eastern United States & Canada. Minimum temperatures in some locations were the lowest in 20 years. Due to the cold conditions, several significant frozen precipitation events occurred across the eastern U.S., reaching as far south as the Florida panhandle. Source: NASA Source: Property Claims Service MR NatCatSERVICE 13
14 US Natural Catastrophe Update Loss events in the U.S Insured losses due to winter storms* Overall losses totaled US$ 3.4bn; Insured losses totaled US$ 2.4bn Insured losses (in 2014 values)** 5 year Mean US$m *Winter storms include winter damage, blizzard, snow storm and cold wave **Losses adjusted to inflation based on country CPI 14
15 US Natural Catastrophe Update Thunderstorms Tornado Count for First Half 2014 The preliminary tornado counts for the first half of 2014 are about 280 below the average. However, tornado counts in April (220) and June 2014 (313) were much higher than observed in
16 US Natural Catastrophe Update Convective loss events in the U.S. Number of events and the half year 2014 Number Convective storm Loss events caused by severe storm, tornado, hail, flash flood and lightning
17 US Natural Catastrophe Update Convective loss events in the U.S. Overall and insured losses and the half year 2014 bn US$ Overall losses (in 2013 values)* Insured losses (in 2013 values)* 30 Analysis contains: severe storm, tornado, hail, flash flood and lightning *Losses adjusted to inflation based on U.S. CPI 17
18 US Natural Catastrophe Update Notable thunderstorm events First Half 2014 April 28 May 1: Large SCS outbreak over the Central Plains and Deep South. A total of 80 tornadoes have been confirmed, causing 35 fatalities. Worst hit were Mayflower, Arkansas, and Louisville, Mississippi, both hit by EF4 tornadoes. Insured losses from the outbreak are estimated at $1.1 billion. Source: NOAA Source: Property Claims Service MR NatCatSERVICE 18
19 US Natural Catastrophe Update Notable thunderstorm events First Half 2014 May 18 May 23: Large hail and non-tornadic wind event stretching from Montana to New York. Hail the size of golf balls impacted sections of Chicago and Denver, and baseball-sized hail impacted parts of Indiana and Ohio. Further east, wind gusts in excess of hurricane force felled trees and power lines across the Mid- Atlantic. Insured losses are estimated at $1.7 billion. Source: NOAA Source: Property Claims Service MR NatCatSERVICE 19
20 US Natural Catastrophe Update Current U.S. drought conditions 20
21 US Natural Catastrophe Update Notable wildfires First Half 2014 A heat wave and strong Santa Ana winds triggered eight wildfires in San Diego County in May. Over 29,000 acres were burned, with about 60 properties destroyed. While this event was minor, continued dry conditions could lead to large fires in the fall. 21
22 Global Natural Catastrophes in the First Half of 2014 Photo: NASA
23 Global Natural Catastrophe Update Natural disaster losses worldwide 2014 Headlines on the global view In the first half of 2014 losses from natural catastrophes summed up to US$ 42bn for direct economic losses and US$ 17bn for insured losses, both well below the average of the last 10 years. Even the biggest loss events did not exceed more than a few billion dollars. At 2,700 the number of fatalities was clearly below the long-term average. Extraordinary hard winter conditions affected the U.S. and Japan while various parts of Europe suffered from heavy rainfall, storms and flooding. Nearly 60% of all insured losses occurred in North America. This is in line with the long-term average from
24 Global Natural Catastrophe Update Loss events January June 2014 Geographical overview Winter damage USA Severe storm, hailstorms USA, Floods Winterstorms, Eastern Europe floods UK, Ireland Dec 2013 Feb 2014 Floods, landslides Afghanistan Apr Jun 2014 Winter damage Japan Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity) Meteorological events (Tropical storm, extratropical storm, convective storm, local storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Severe storm, tornadoes, flash floods USA, Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, wildfire) Drought Brazil, Dec 2013 Mar Loss events Severe storm, hailstorm France, Germany, Belgium Cyclone Ita Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea Source: Munich Re, NatCatSERVICE, 2014 Loss events Selection of catastrophes 24
25 Global Natural Catastrophe Update Loss events worldwide Number of events (annual totals vs. first six months 2014) Number First Six Months in Events Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity) Meteorological events (Tropical storm, extratropical storm, convective storm, local storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Source: Munich Re, NatCatSERVICE 25
26 Global Natural Catastrophe Update Loss events worldwide Number of events (January June only) Number First Six Months in Events Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity) Meteorological events (Tropical storm, extratropical storm, convective storm, local storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Source: Munich Re, NatCatSERVICE 26
27 Global Natural Catastrophe Update Loss events worldwide Overall and insured losses (annual totals vs. first six months 2014) Overall losses totaled US$ 42bn; Insured losses totaled US$ 17bn bn US$ Overall losses (in 2013 values)* Insured losses (in 2013 values)* Source: Munich Re, NatCatSERVICE *Losses adjusted to inflation based on country CPI 27
28 Global Natural Catastrophe Update Loss events worldwide Overall and insured losses (January June only) Overall losses totaled US$ 42bn; Insured losses totaled US$ 17bn bn US$ Overall losses (in 2013 values)* Insured losses (in 2013 values)* Source: Munich Re, NatCatSERVICE *Losses adjusted to inflation based on country CPI 28
29 Global Natural Catastrophe Update Loss events worldwide 2014 Overview and comparison with previous years 2014 (Jan June) 2013 (Jan June) Average of the last 10 years (Jan June) Average of the last 30 years (Jan June) Top Year (Jan June) Number of events (2012) Overall losses in US$ m (original values) Insured losses in US$ m (original values) 42,000 65,800 94,500 65, ,000 (2011, EQ Japan) 17,000 21,100 24,900 14,700 82,000 (2011, EQ Japan) Fatalities 2,700 9,100 52,600 29, ,000 (2010, EQ Haiti) 29
30 Global Natural Catastrophe Update Loss events worldwide 2014 The five costliest natural catastrophes for the insurance industry Date Region Event Fatalities Overall losses US$ m Insured losses US$ m Japan Winter damage 51 5,000 >2, Western Europe Severe storm, hailstorm 6 2,800 2, United States Winter damage 2,500 1, United States Severe storm 2,000 1, United States Severe storm, tornadoes, flash floods 40 1,700 1,100 30
31 Global Natural Catastrophe Update Notable global events First Half 2014 Japan: A pair of heavy snowfall events caused significant infrastructure disruptions and damage across the country in mid-february. Four auto manufacturing plants had to suspend operations due to the conditions. Hundreds of residential and commercial buildings collapsed due to snow loads, and over 270,000 lost power due to snow and wind gusts to hurricane force. In large part due to business interruption losses, insured losses from this winter storm outbreak are estimated at $2.5bn. Source: Reuters Source: Property Claims Service MR NatCatSERVICE 31
32 Global Natural Catastrophe Update Notable global events First Half 2014 France, Germany, Netherlands: Several severe thunderstorms developed on June 8 & 9 that produced several swaths of large hail. Tile roofs, windows, and skylights were shattered by the tennis-ball sized hail, and heavy rains flooding thousands of. Agricultural activities were also severely impacted. Although not as damaging as the $3.7 billion loss from the last year s hail events in Germany, this event still caused estimated insured losses of $2.5 billion across four countries. Source: copyright 2014 EUMETSAT Source: Property Claims Service MR NatCatSERVICE 32
33 Global Natural Catastrophe Update Notable global events First Half 2014 United Kingdom: A series of intense extratropical storms brought several bouts of heavy rains during the winter of 2014, causing widespread flooding around the country. Access to some villages was cut off for a month, and over 6,500 properties were flooded. Coastal flooding and erosion was also caused by the persistent storms. Insured losses from the flooding are estimated at about $1.1 billion. Source: NASA Source: Property Claims Service MR NatCatSERVICE 33
34 Global Natural Catastrophe Update Costliest natural catastrophes since 1950 Ranked by insured losses
35 Global warming and natural climate oscillations Peter Höppe, Head of Geo Risk Unit/Corporate Climate Center Munich Re
36 IPCC 5 th Assessment Report WGII (March 31, 2014) Impacts and Adaptation Ongoing sea-level rise: coastal systems and low-lying areas will increasingly experience submergence, coastal flooding and erosion will affect increasing fractions of population and assets. Fraction of population annually experiencing water scarcity and the fraction affected by major river floods will increase in the 21st century with the level of warming. More frequent and/or severe extreme events will increase losses and loss variability. Changing loss patterns will challenge insurance systems to offer affordable coverage, provide more risk-based capital. 36
37 El Nino years tend to increase the global average temperature Annual Global Temperature Anomalies Source: NOAA, 37
38 State of the Climate (NOAA): May 2014 The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for May has been the highest on record for this month. Source: NOAA, 38
39 Update on current El Niño development
40 ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) Definitions ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) is a natural climate oscillation in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which affects both the ocean and the atmosphere. The anamoly of the sea surface temperature in the so called Niño3.4-Region (= Niño3.4- Index) is used to define the ENSO-Phases: El Niño (Niño3.4-Index >0,5) Neutral Phase (Niño3.4-Index <0,5 und >-0,5) La Niña (Niñno3.4-Index <-0,5) Anomalies of sea surface temperatures in the Niño3.4-region since 1950 Location of Niño3.4-region Source: Climate Prediction Center/NOAA 40
41 ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) Phases ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) is a coupled atmospheric-oceanic phenomenon: Sinking of air (drying) above the tropical western edge of the Pacific (Indonesia/ Australia), strong rising of air masses over the eastern tropical Pacific Rising moist air masses above Indonesia/Australia. Sinking dry air above the tropical Pacific coast of South America Increased rising of moist air over Indonesia/Australia, increased sinking of dry air over the tropical coast of South America Source: PMEL/NOAA, USA, 41
42 Current Forecasts of El Niño Source: IRI, Earth Institute, Columbia University 42
43 Munich Re assessment of ENSO status and outlook as of July 2014 Central and particularly eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures have risen The threshold for weak El Niño (EN) conditions has already been reached They may develop into stronger intensity levels close to the boundary between weak and moderate around fall This level will prevail through the remainder of the year According to current model runs an intensification into a strong EN event is not probable The stronger the EN intensity reached in late 2014, the more likely is the development of a La Niña event in the second half of the following "decay year"
44 Expected deviations of weather patterns at moderate EN intensity level Lower activity of Atlantic hurricane season Increased flood risks at US West Coast, several regions in South America, Southeast China and Horn of Africa Increased risk of droughts in East and North Australia, Southeast and South (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh) Asia, Southern Africa, North/Northeast Brazil 44
45 Significant deviations of global nat cat losses only in strong El Nino years Weather related loss events worldwide Period Overall losses US$m (normalized to 2013)* Insured losses US$m (normalized to 2013)* Long term average ( ) Moderate El Nino years (1986, , 2002, 2009) Strong El Nino years ( , 1987, 1997) (El Nino-year classification based on ENSO-ONI index (NOAA) with modrate El Nino if at least 3 months in any El Nino phase where between 1 and 1.5 K and strong El Nino if above 1.5 K.) *normalized with national GDP, changes in insurance density not considered Source: Munich Re, NatCatSERVICE 45
46 Market & Financial Impact of Catastrophe Losses: First Half 2014 Summary
47 WINTER STORM LOSSES: Significant Economic Impact
48 US Real GDP Growth*
49 Inflation Adjusted U.S. Catastrophe Losses by Cause of Loss,
50 Value of New Private Construction: Residential & Nonresidential, *
51 P/C Insurance Industry: Financial Update
52 P/C Industry Net Income After Taxes :Q1
53 ROE: Property/Casualty Insurance by Major Event, :Q1*
54 A 100 Combined Ratio Isn t What It Once Was: Investment Impact on ROEs
55 SURPLUS/CAPITAL/CAPACITY
56 Policyholder Surplus, 2006:Q4 2014:Q1
57 Investments: The New Reality
58 Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Income:
59 UNDERWRITING
60 P/C Insurance Industry Combined Ratio, :Q1
61 Underwriting Gain (Loss) All Lines Combined, *
62 Severe Weather Reports As of Mid-2014*
63 Number of Federal Major Disaster Declarations, June 30, 2014*
64 Combined Ratio Points Associated with Catastrophe Losses: E*
65 Premium Growth
66 Net Premium Growth: Annual Change, :Q1
67 P/C Net Premiums Written: Percent Change, Quarter vs. Year-Prior Quarter
68 Outlook for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season
69 Outlook for 2014 Hurricane Season: 30% Less Active Than Typical Year
70 Probability of Major Hurricane Landfall (CAT 3, 4, 5) in 2014
71 Natural Disaster Risk and Public Opinion
72 I.I.I. Poll: Homes Near Hazards
73 I.I.I. Poll: Flood Insurance Rates
74 I.I.I. Poll: Insurer Strength
75
76 Press Inquiries Sharon Cooper Phone: +1 (609) Terese Rosenthal Phone: +1 (609)
77 NatCatSERVICE Downloadcenter for statistics and analyses on natural disasters The downloadcenter provides free access: Annual statistics Long-term statistics Information on significant natural disasters Focus analyses NatCatSERVICE methodology, info brochure Publication Topics Geo 500% 450% 400% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0%
78 Weather Resilience and Protection (WRAP) Website Describe the impact of severe weather and how individuals, businesses, government, and insurers can work together to prepare for and mitigate weather risks. Will include data, publications, preparation tips and other useful information for the press. 78
79 More Information Connect with Munich Re Connect with @iiiorg LinkedIn munich-reinsurance-america-inc. Insurance Information Institute Google+ YouTube Facebook Flickr Munich Re (US) Munich Re MunichReUs MunichReVideo Munichreus1 Munichre Insurance Information Institute iiivideo InsuranceInformationInstitute iiiorg 79
80 Thank you July 9, 2014
81 Copyright 2014 Munich Reinsurance America, Inc. All rights reserved. "Munich RE" and the Munich Re logo are internationally protected registered trademarks. The material in this presentation is provided for your information only, and is not permitted to be further distributed without the express written permission of Munich Reinsurance America, Inc. This material is not intended to be legal, underwriting, financial, or any other type of professional advice. Any descriptions of coverage reflected in this presentation are meant to be general in nature and do not include and are not intended to include all of the actual terms, benefits and limitations found in an insurance policy. Only the insurance policy will form the contract between the insured and insurance company, and governs in all cases.
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