CURRENT PRICE EXPECTED HIGH EXPECTED LOW PIVOT POINT , , , AUD/USD SMA 5 SMA 10 SMA 15

Transcription

1 DAILY FOREX & COMMODITIES FORECAST FOREX FORECAST MAJOR PAIRS OPENING MINDS CREATING FUTURES AUD/USD CURRENT PRICE EXPECTED HIGH EXPECTED LOW PIVOT POINT , , , AUD/USD SMA 5 SMA 10 SMA 15 SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES DIFFERENCE FROM PRICE (PIPS) DAYS SINCE PRICE TESTED SMA GAP BETWEEN SMA 5, 10 & Pips RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI) 63 bullish BOLLINGER BAND BOLLINGER BAND (UPPER) BOLLINGER BAND (MIDDLE) BOLLINGER BAND (LOWER) Upper Band LUTFI MAGNET POINTS WEEKLY M MONTHLY M QUARTERLY M HALF YEARLY M YEARLY M SENTIMENT Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish TECHNICAL NAD FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Daily Technical Analysis: AUD/USD has tested SMA5 and SMA10 yesterday. Market SMAs are expending and moving in upward direction, whereas the pair is moving above all three SMAs. RSI is showing bullish strength with 63% reading. RSI is moving in slight upward direction above mid-level (50%). Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands are showing slight expansion, while middle band is moving in upward direction. It shows that there is slight bullish volatility, while the pair is moving below upper band. With Lutfi Magnet Theory market is 83% bullish, while magnet theory with adjustments is showing market is 88% Bullish sentiment. Lutfi Magnet Theory and adjustments are showing bullish sentiment. From Trend line Analysis, AUD/USD is moving in upward with 150pips wide uptrend channel now support at to The trend has bisection line, which is creating resistance at From above Technical Analysis initial bias is bullish. On higher side, sustainable move above yesterday s high at may attempt higher high at upper Bollinger band at and break there may extend upward to resistance2 at However, on downside, break below daily pivot point at may find Support1 at And Break there may initiate bullish consolidation to yesterday s low at

2 Daily Fundamentals: The Australian dollar slipped lower against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday morning, after the release of downbeat economic data from Australia, while investors remained cautious amid political uncertaintly in Italy and budget talks in the U.S. In US trading session, the pair was trading near to a 12 week high against the U.S. dollar, boosted by news of a financial aid deal for Greece and positive economic data from the euro zone, while investors eyed the outcome of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting this week. Investor confidence had strengthened earlier after data showed that the German ZEW index of economic sentiment improved unexpectedly in December, rising to 6.9 from a reading of minus 15.7 the previous month, reentering positive territory for the first time since March. Meanwhile, expectations that the Federal Reserve would announce more monetary easing measures at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday continued to weigh on the dollar. Investors remained wary as they awaited fresh developments in negotiations to avoid the U.S. fiscal cliff amid concerns that the automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to take effect in early 2013 could derail the U.S. recovery. Here is schedule for today s important data: Westpac Consumer Sentiment: 04:30am. Consumer Sentiment tends to be volatile, making accurate market forecasts a tricky task. The indicator jumped 5.2% last month, its largest gain in over a year. The markets will be hoping for another strong reading in the December release. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens Speaks: at 09:30am. Governor Stevens will be delivering remarks at the Bank of Thailand in Bangkok. Analysts will be looking for hints as to the RBA s future monetary policy. The current dovish composition of the Fed can easily find negative signs concerning the US economy, and can ignore the positive signs. Officials are not satisfied with the employment situation: the participation rate is still low, and the unemployment rate including discouraged workers remains high, despite some improvements. While the impact of more monetary easing at this point is questionable, the Fed would probably prefer to do something when it has a chance. The end of Operation Twist provides a chance. The impact on the dollar could be negative at first. Afterwards, we could see a buy the rumor, sell the fact reaction. US FOMC Economic Projections: Thursday, at 12:00am.. Together with its September meeting, The FOMC generated a statement, on its projections for key economic indicators, including GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. In September, projections for real GDP growth for 2012 were between 1.7% to 2.0%, following 1.9% to 2.4% in the June forecasts. The outlook for next year is even lower than it was earlier in the year, as the central tendency of the projections for 2013 has come down from 2.8% to 3.2% in January to 2.5% to 3.0% in September. AUD/USD Yesterday: AUD/USD opened the day at after thin Monday, created low at After attempting slight low, the pair got bullish momentum to high Aussie closed the day at MARKET SENTIMENT 70% Bullish AUD/USD DAILY CHART US rate decision: Wednesday, at 10:30pm, followed by projections on Thursday at 12:00am and a press conference with Ben Bernanke on Thursday at 12:15am. Assuming there is no instant deal regarding the the fiscal cliff, we can expect more action from the Fed now that the elections are over. The FOMC is likely to introduce more monetary stimulus as the extension of Operation Twist nears its end. This could take a form of more outright monthly purchases of Treasuries (QE4 or QE-Infinity 2) in a scale of of $30-40 billion per month, in addition to the current program of purchasing MBS at the scale of $40 billion per month(qe3 or QE Infinity). Operation Twist will likely be retired. Today Aussie started the day at

3 EUR/USD CURRENT PRICE EXPECTED HIGH EXPECTED LOW PIVOT POINT , , EUR/USD SMA 5 SMA 10 SMA 15 SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES DIFFERENCE FROM PRICE (PIPS) DAYS SINCE PRICE TESTED SMA GAP BETWEEN SMA 5, 10 & Pips RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI) 57 bullish BOLLINGER BAND BOLLINGER BAND (UPPER) BOLLINGER BAND (MIDDLE) BOLLINGER BAND (LOWER) Middle to Upper Band LUTFI MAGNET POINTS WEEKLY M MONTHLY M QUARTERLY M HALF YEARLY M YEARLY M SENTIMENT Neutral Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish TECHNICAL NAD FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Daily Technical Analysis: EUR/USD has tested SMA5, SMA10 and SMA15 yesterday. SMAs are now contracting and moving in mix sequence, with Euro is moving above three SMAs. RSI is showing bullish strength with 57% reading. RSI is turning to upward direction from mid-level (50%). Upper and Lower bands have started contraction, while middle band is moving upward direction with contracting bands. It signals that upward volatility in euro might come to an end. The pair is moving above Middle band. With Lutfi Magnet theory market is 50% Bearish/Bearish and with adjustments 60 bearish sentiments. Lutfi Magnet Theory and adjustments are showing mix sentiment. n the U.S. earlier, the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. trade deficit expanded less than expected in October, hitting USD42.2 billion compared to a USD40.3 billion deficit in September. While the numbers still reflected a weak global economy due to sluggish imports and exports, the data beat expectations for the trade deficit to expand to USD42.6 billion in October. The euro also firmed against the greenback after Greece wrapped up a EUR31.5 billion sovereign bond buyback with private investors, a requirement for Athens to tap EUR44 billion in fresh bailout funding. From Fibonacci Analysis, after moving below 50% retracement level on uptrend from to , Euro took upward move 23.6%. In this case if the pair moved above 23.6% at then it might continue moving upward to retest high (0.0%) at On the basis of Technical Analysis initial is neutral as the pair is reacting with fundamentals quickly. On upward, may test resistance1 at , and break there may extent to upward to higher high at 13.8% retracement level at While on lower side, move below daily pivot point at may attempt support1 at Daily Fundamentals: The euro shot up against the dollar on Tuesday after the U.S. reported that its trade deficit swelled less than expected in October, which fueled demand for higheryielding currencies and equities. Firming German economic confidence bolstered the euro as well. The ZEW index of German economic sentiment rose by 22.6 points to 6.9 in December, from a reading of in November and the first positive reading since May. Analysts were expecting a reading. The U.S. Federal Reserve will hold its last monetary policy meeting of the year this week, and market participants are expecting the U.S. central bank to either stick with current loose policies or possibly loosen them even further, which weakened the greenback. Here is schedule for today s important data: Industrial Production: at 03:00pm. Industrial production in the 17-member eurozone dropped more

4 than forecasted in September, down 2.5% from a modest rise of 0.9% in August amid the ongoing sovereign debt crisis. Output decreased in all industry sectors, adding to recession worries.0.3% US rate decision: Wednesday, at 10:30pm, followed by projections on Thursday at 12:00am and a press conference with Ben Bernanke on Thursday at 12:15am. Assuming there is no instant deal regarding the the fiscal cliff, we can expect more action from the Fed now that the elections are over. The FOMC is likely to introduce more monetary stimulus as the extension of Operation Twist nears its end. This could take a form of more outright monthly purchases of Treasuries (QE4 or QE-Infinity 2) in a scale of of $30-40 billion per month, in addition to the current program of purchasing MBS at the scale of $40 billion per month(qe3 or QE Infinity). Operation Twist will likely be retired. The current dovish composition of the Fed can easily find negative signs concerning the US economy, and can ignore the positive signs. Officials are not satisfied with the employment situation: the participation rate is still low, and the unemployment rate including discouraged workers remains high, despite some improvements. While the impact of more monetary easing at this point is questionable, the Fed would probably prefer to do something when it has a chance. The end of Operation Twist provides a chance. The impact on the dollar could be negative at first. Afterwards, we could see a buy the rumor, sell the fact reaction. US FOMC Economic Projections: Thursday, at 12:00am.. Together with its September meeting, The FOMC generated a statement, on its projections for key economic indicators, including GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. In September, projections for real GDP growth for 2012 were between 1.7% to 2.0%, following 1.9% to 2.4% in the June forecasts. The outlook for next year is even lower than it was earlier in the year, as the central tendency of the projections for 2013 has come down from 2.8% to 3.2% in January to 2.5% to 3.0% in September. EUR/USD Yesterday: EUR/USD began the day at After a slight low at , the pair climbed higher to high Euro closed the full volume bullish day at MARKET SENTIMENT 55% Bullish EUR/USD DAILY CHART EUR/USD DAILY CHART

5 GBP/USD CURRENT PRICE EXPECTED HIGH EXPECTED LOW PIVOT POINT , , , GBP/USD SMA 5 SMA 10 SMA 15 SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES DIFFERENCE FROM PRICE (PIPS) DAYS SINCE PRICE TESTED SMA GAP BETWEEN SMA 5, 10 & Pips RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI) 60 bullish BOLLINGER BAND BOLLINGER BAND (UPPER) BOLLINGER BAND (MIDDLE) BOLLINGER BAND (LOWER) Upper Band LUTFI MAGNET POINTS WEEKLY M MONTHLY M QUARTERLY M HALF YEARLY M YEARLY M SENTIMENT Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish TECHNICAL NAD FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Daily Technical Analysis: GBP/USD has tested SMA5 yesterday. Market SMAs are contracting in bullish sequence, whereas GBP is moving above all three SMAs. RSI is showing decreasing bullish strength with 60% reading. RSI is now moving in upward direction above mid-level (50%). Upper and Lower Bands are showing slight contraction, while middle band is turning to upward direction. Whereas the pair is moving near upper band, it shows bullish volatility in Pair. With Lutfi Magnet Theory market is 65% bullish, while with adjustments 68% bullish\ sentiments. Lutfi magnet theory and adjustments are showing bullish sentiments. Further trend line analysis, GBP is moving in Uptrend Chennai, with support level at and resistance at Concluding all Technical Analysis initial bias is bullish. On upward move above last week high at , may bring more bullish biasness to higher high at resistance and break there may test uptrend channel resistance line However on lower side, sustainable move below support1 at will consolidate uptrend and find support at uptrend channel support level at and in case of bearish biasness it may fall down to retest support Daily Fundamentals: The pound was trading close to a three-day high against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, boosted by news of a financial aid deal for Greece and positive economic data from the euro zone, while investors eyed the outcome of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting this week. engthened earlier after data showed that the German ZEW index of economic sentiment improved unexpectedly in December, rising to 6.9 from a reading of minus 15.7 the previous month, re-entering positive territory for the first time since March. The pound remained vulnerable however, as concerns over the U.K. economy persisted after Chancellor George Osborne warned last week that the country would not meet deficit reduction targets, sparking fears of a cut to the U.K. s triple-a sovereign rating. Meanwhile, expectations that the Federal Reserve would announce more monetary easing measures at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday continued to weigh on the dollar. Investors remained wary as they awaited fresh developments in negotiations to avoid the U.S. fiscal cliff amid concerns that the automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to take effect in early 2013 could derail the U.S. recovery. Here is schedule for today s important data: Claimant Count Change: at 02:30pm. This key employment indicator slumped in November, as the

6 number of unemployment claims jumped to its highest level in over a year. Another weak release could hurt confidence in the pound. The Unemployment Rate will be released at the same time as the Claimant Count Change. The rate is expected to edge up to 7.9% from the current level of 7.8%. Average Earnings Index: at 02:30pm. This index is a leading indicator of inflation in the UK. The index has been moving upwards over the past two readings, and the markets are expecting another increase this month, with an estimate of 1.9%. MPC Member Spencer Dale Speaks: at 03:45pm. MPC Member Dale will be addressing the Market News International Seminar in London.Analysts will be looking for clues with regard to the BOE s monetary policy. US rate decision: Wednesday, at 10:30pm, followed by projections on Thursday at 12:00am and a press conference with Ben Bernanke on Thursday at 12:15am. Assuming there is no instant deal regarding the the fiscal cliff, we can expect more action from the Fed now that the elections are over. The FOMC is likely to introduce more monetary stimulus as the extension of Operation Twist nears its end. This could take a form of more outright monthly purchases of Treasuries (QE4 or QE-Infinity 2) in a scale of of $30-40 billion per month, in addition to the current program of purchasing MBS at the scale of $40 billion per month(qe3 or QE Infinity). Operation Twist will likely be retired. The current dovish composition of the Fed can easily find negative signs concerning the US economy, and can ignore the positive signs. Officials are not satisfied with the employment situation: the participation rate is still low, and the unemployment rate including discouraged workers remains high, despite some improvements. While the impact of more monetary easing at this point is questionable, the Fed would probably prefer to do something when it has a chance. The end of Operation Twist provides a chance. The impact on the dollar could be negative at first. Afterwards, we could see a buy the rumor, sell the fact reaction. US FOMC Economic Projections: Thursday, at 12:00am.. Together with its September meeting, The FOMC generated a statement, on its projections for key economic indicators, including GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. In September, projections for real GDP growth for 2012 were between 1.7% to 2.0%, following 1.9% to 2.4% in the June forecasts. The outlook for next year is even lower than it was earlier in the year, as the central tendency of the projections for 2013 has come down from 2.8% to 3.2% in January to 2.5% to 3.0% in September. GBP/USD Yesterday: GBP/USD opened the day at After some consolidation in first session of the day, GBP moved higher high to The pair then closed the full volume bullish day at MARKET SENTIMENT 55% Bullish GBP/USD DAILY CHART GBP/USD DAILY CHART

7 USD/JPY CURRENT PRICE EXPECTED HIGH EXPECTED LOW PIVOT POINT , , JPY/USD SMA 5 SMA 10 SMA 15 SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES DIFFERENCE FROM PRICE (PIPS) DAYS SINCE PRICE TESTED SMA GAP BETWEEN SMA 5, 10 & Pips RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI) 66 bullish BOLLINGER BAND BOLLINGER BAND (UPPER) BOLLINGER BAND (MIDDLE) BOLLINGER BAND (LOWER) Middle to Upper Band LUTFI MAGNET POINTS WEEKLY M MONTHLY M QUARTERLY M HALF YEARLY M YEARLY M SENTIMENT Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish TECHNICAL NAD FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Daily Technical Analysis: USD/JPY has tested SMA5 yesterday. JPY/USD SMAs are contracting and moving in mix sequence, while the pair is moving above all three SMAs. RSI is showing decreasing bullish strength with 66% reading. RSI is moving in straight direction below resistance-level (70%). Upper and Lower Bands are squeezing, while Middle band is moving in upward direction with contracting bands. It shows uptrend volatility is decreasing, where JPY is moving between Upper and middle band. With Lutfi Magnet Theory market is 55% bullish and adjustments are 52% bullish. Lutfi Magnet Theory and adjustments are showing slight bullish sentiment. Further from Trend line analysis, Yen has created thin straight trading range between resistance at and Support level at Concluding all Technical Analysis, initial bias is neutral. On higher side, sustainable move above Friday s high at may initiate bullish biasness to resistance at While on downward break below this week low at may find support at last week low at Expectations that the Federal Reserve will announce further easing measures at the conclusion of Wednesday s policy meeting continued to weigh on dollar demand. Investors were also awaiting fresh developments in negotiations to avoid the U.S. fiscal cliff amid concerns that the automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to take effect in early 2013 could derail the U.S. recovery. Meanwhile, widespread expectations the BoJ will implement more aggressive easing measures following an upcoming election on December 16 pinned down the yen. In the meantime, expectations that the Federal Reserve would announce more monetary easing measures at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday continued to weigh on the dollar. Investors remained wary as they awaited fresh developments in negotiations to avoid the U.S. fiscal cliff amid concerns that the automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to take effect in early 2013 could derail the U.S. recovery. Daily Fundamentals: The U.S. dollar was little changed against the yen on Tuesday, as investors adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of the conclusion of the Federal Reserve s policy meeting, while expectations for more easing by the Bank of Japan remained intact. Here is schedule for today s important data: Core Machinery Orders: at 06:50am. Japan s core machinery orders dropped more than expected in September, declining 4.3% from the previous month, due to weak domestic demand and exports. On the yearly basis, orders lost 7.8% in September. A rise of 3.1% is expected now. Tertiary Industry Activity: at 06:50am. Japan s service sector activity increased by 0.3% on month in

8 September following the same rise a month ago. Economists expected a flat reading. The biggest increases were registered for compound services, and for the finance and insurance sector. A drop of 0.3% is predicted now. US rate decision: Wednesday, at 10:30pm, followed by projections on Thursday at 12:00am and a press conference with Ben Bernanke on Thursday at 12:15am. Assuming there is no instant deal regarding the the fiscal cliff, we can expect more action from the Fed now that the elections are over. The FOMC is likely to introduce more monetary stimulus as the extension of Operation Twist nears its end. This could take a form of more outright monthly purchases of Treasuries (QE4 or QE-Infinity 2) in a scale of of $30-40 billion per month, in addition to the current program of purchasing MBS at the scale of $40 billion per month(qe3 or QE Infinity). Operation Twist will likely be retired. The current dovish composition of the Fed can easily find negative signs concerning the US economy, and can ignore the positive signs. Officials are not satisfied with the employment situation: the participation rate is still low, and the unemployment rate including discouraged workers remains high, despite some improvements. While the impact of more monetary easing at this point is questionable, the Fed would probably prefer to do something when it has a chance. The end of Operation Twist provides a chance. The impact on the dollar could be negative at first. Afterwards, we could see a buy the rumor, sell the fact reaction. US FOMC Economic Projections: Thursday, at 12:00am.. Together with its September meeting, The FOMC generated a statement, on its projections for key economic indicators, including GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. In September, projections for real GDP growth for 2012 were between 1.7% to 2.0%, following 1.9% to 2.4% in the June forecasts. The outlook for next year is even lower than it was earlier in the year, as the central tendency of the projections for 2013 has come down from 2.8% to 3.2% in January to 2.5% to 3.0% in September. USD/JPY Yesterday: Yesterday USD/JPY began the day at After attempting low at 82.29, the pair got some bullish momentum to high at The pair closed the thin volume bullish day at MARKET SENTIMENT 50% Bearish/Bullish USD/JPY DAILY CHART USD/JPY DAILY CHART

9 GOLD CURRENT PRICE EXPECTED HIGH EXPECTED LOW PIVOT POINT , , , , GOLD SMA 5 SMA 10 SMA 15 SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES DIFFERENCE FROM PRICE (UD $) DAYS SINCE PRICE TESTED SMA GAP BETWEEN SMA 5, 10 & Pips RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI) 46 bearish BOLLINGER BAND BOLLINGER BAND (UPPER) BOLLINGER BAND (MIDDLE) BOLLINGER BAND (LOWER) Middle Band LUTFI MAGNET POINTS WEEKLY M MONTHLY M QUARTERLY M HALF YEARLY M YEARLY M SENTIMENT Bullish Bearish Bearish Bullish Bullish TECHNICAL NAD FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Daily Technical analysis: GOLD has not tested SMA5 for last 2 days, while there is 7 days lagging in SMA15. Gold market SMAs are contracting and moving in bearish sequence. The precious metal is moving between SMA10 and SMA15. RSI is showing bearish strength with 46% reading and moving in slight upward direction towards mid-level (50%). Upper and Lower bands are showing expansion, while middle band is turning to downward direction. It shows bearish volatility in Gold market. With Lutfi Magnet Theory market is 53% Bearish and with adjustments 60% Bearish. Lutfi Magnet Theory and Adjustments are showing bearish sentiments. Further from Fibonacci analysis, Gold is moving around 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels of downtrend from high at to low at In this case sustainable move below 23.6% could retest bottom at Concluding all Technical Analysis, initial bias is neutral for the day. On lower Side, sustainable move below yesterday s low at may find support1 at and break there may move down to support1 at While on higher side, upward move above yesterday s high at may test monthly magnet at And break there may attempt resistance3 at Daily Fundamentals: Gold futures were lower on Tuesday, but losses were limited by expectations for more easing measures by the Federal Reserve, which would support demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery traded at USD1, a troy ounce during U.S. morning trade, down 0.36%. Gold prices were likely to find support at USD1, a troy ounce, the low of December 4 and resistance at USD1,717.20, Monday s high. Gold remained supported amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will announce further stimulus measures at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Gold is sensitive to changes in monetary policy and has strengthened so far this year as a result of easing policies by world central banks, particularly the Fed and the European Central Bank. Investors were also awaiting fresh developments in negotiations to avoid the U.S. fiscal cliff amid concerns that the automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to take effect in early 2013 could derail the U.S. recovery.

10 Meanwhile, the euro strengthened against the dollar after Greece concluded a deal to buy back EUR31.5 billion worth of debt from private investors, as part of an agreement to unlock a new bailout package worth EUR44 billion. The euro was boosted earlier in the session after the ZEW Centre for Economic Research said that its index of German economic sentiment increased by 22.6 points to 6.9 this month, from a reading of minus 15.7 in November and the first positive reading since May MARKET SENTIMENT 58% Bullish GOLD DAILY CHART GOLD Yesterday: Gold opened yesterday at After attempting high at , it moved down to as low as As the support at 1700 held firmed, gold market closed day after some retracement at FOR MORE INFORMATION For any query regarding market forecast please contact Waqar Talpur Research Analyst waqartalpur@ismarfinancial.com or Shoaib Ahmed Research Analyst shoaibahmed@ismarfinancial.com

11 IMPORTANT ECONOMIC DATA FOR THIS WEEK Monday, December 10 Japan is to release revised data on third quarter gross domestic product, the foremost indicator of economic activity and the primary gauge of the health of the economy, as well as data on the current account. Australia is to release official data on home loans, a leading indicator of demand in the housing sector. In the euro zone, France and Italy are to release official data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health. The euro zone is also to release data on investor confidence. Tuesday, December 11 The U.K. is to release industry data on house prices, a leading indicator of inflation in the housing sector. Australia is produce data on business confidence, a leading indicator of economic health. In the euro zone, the ZEW Institute of Economic Research is to release its closely watched index of German economic sentiment. Later Tuesday, both the U.S. and Canada are to publish a government reports on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports. Wednesday, December 12 Australia is to release data on consumer sentiment, a leading indicator of consumer spending. expectations, as well as official data on new vehicle sales, a leading indicator of consumer confidence. Switzerland is to publish its quarterly government forecasts for economic growth, in addition to official data on produce price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation. The Swiss National Bank is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be accompanied by the SNB s rate statement and followed by a press conference with Chairman Thomas Jordan to discuss the rate decision and the economic outlook. European Union leaders are to hold the first day of a two day summit in Brussels, while the eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers are also to hold talks in Brussels. Meanwhile, the ECB is to release its monthly bulletin, which contains insights into the economic outlook from the bank s perspective. The U.K. is to release private sector data on industrial order expectations, an important indicator of economic health. Later in the day, Canada is to release official data on house price inflation, an important indicator of demand in the housing sector. The U.S. is to produce government data on retail sales, the leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity, as well as data on producer price inflation and the weekly government report on initial jobless claims. Japan is to produce government data on core machinery orders and tertiary industry activity, leading indicators of economic health. The U.K. is to publish official data on the change in the number of people unemployed and the unemployment rate. Elsewhere in Europe, the ZEW Institute is to publish a report in economic expectations in Switzerland. The euro zone is to release official data on industrial production, while Spain is to hold an auction of 10- year government bonds. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is to announce the federal funds rate. The announcement is to be accompanied by the bank s rate statement and followed by a press conference with Chairman Ben Bernanke to discuss the rate decision and the economic outlook. The U.S. is also to release official data on import prices and crude oil inventories. Thursday, December 13 Australia is to publish a report on inflation Friday, December 14 Japan is to publish its Tankan manufacturing and service sector indices, while China is to publish the preliminary HSBC manufacturing index, a leading indicator of economic health. The euro zone is to release preliminary data on services and manufacturing sector activity, while Germany and France are to also to publish individual reports on Services and Manufacturing activeity. The euro zone is also to release official data on consumer inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. Meanwhile, EU leaders are to hold the second day of a two-day summit meeting in Brussels. Canada is to release official data on manufacturing sales, a leading indicator of economic health. The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on consumer inflation, the capacity utilization rate, industrial production and preliminary data on manufacturing activity.