Daily FX Focus 14/9/2016

Transcription

1 Important Risk Warning Currency Current Trend AUD EUR GBP NZD CAD JPY Support / Resistance vs USD.7357 /.765 AUD dropped with falling commodity price. AUDUSD once dropped to.7439 level. Market awaits August Unemployment Rate. vs USD / Germany's September ZEW Economic Sentiment Index unchanged at.5. EURUSD once dropped to 1.12 level. Market awaits August Eurozone's CPI Final Value. vs USD / UK's August Consumer Prices Index rose.6% YoY, weaker than expected. GBPUSD once dropped to level. Market awaits September Rate Decision. vs USD.7138 /.7424 NZD followed lower commodity price to fall. NZDUSD once dropped to.7231 level. Market awaits September Rate Decision. vs USD / Daily FX Focus 14/9/216 The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for you having regard to your financial situation and investment experience. Investment involves risk. Loss may be incurred as well as profits made as a result of buying and selling investment products. Currency conversion risk the value of your foreign currency and RMB deposit will be subject to the risk of exchange rate fluctuation. If you choose to convert your foreign currency and RMB deposit to other currencies at an exchange rate that is less favourable than the exchange rate in which you made your original conversion to that foreign currency and RMB, you may suffer loss in principal. RMB is currently not freely convertible and subject to regulatory restrictions (which might be changed from time to time). For personal customers who are Hong Kong residents, conversions conducted through RMB deposit accounts with banks in Hong Kong are subject to the limit of up to RMB2, per person per day. Non Hong Kong residents are not required to observe the corresponding limits and requirements regarding Renminbi conversions for Hong Kong residents. Market commentary CAD fell with IEA's forecast that global oil oversupply could persist until 217. USDCAD once rose to level. Market awaits August Balance of Trade. vs USD 1.29 / JPY was stimulated by the news that BOJ might further cut rate. USDJPY once rose to level. Market awaits September Rate Decision. * Current Trend observations pertain to historical trend technical analysis only and do not reflect any forward looking fundamental views. The signal is generated with the the 2 days moving average as the main determining factor. A secondary reference, the 5 day moving average, can be used if needed. Consolidation, indicates that the currency's movement against USD has remained sideways Up Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving higher against the base currency Down Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving lower against the base currency AUD RBA announced to lower interest rates by 25bps to a record low of 1.5% in August. AUD dropped with falling commodity price. AUDUSD once dropped to.7439 level. Market awaits August Unemployment Rate. 14 Sep.746 Daily change: 1.33% (+) Australia Q2 GDP rose 3.3% YoY, higher than an increase of 3% in previous quarter High.7732 (+) Australia Q2 CPI rose.4% YoY, higher than a decrease of.2% in previous quarter Low.7439 (+) Australia July unemployment rate arrived at 5.7%, lower than 5.8% in previous month Support*.7357 (+) Australia August Commodity Price Index arrived at.8%, higher than 2.7% in previous month Resistance* AUD/USD 6 month Chart AUD/USD 1 day moving average 2 day moving average.65 9 AUD/USD 6 month 7 day RSI 6 3

2 14/9/216 EUR ECB maintained September monetary policy unchanged, as market expected. Germany's September ZEW Economic Sentiment Index unchanged at.5. EURUSD once dropped to 1.12 level. Market awaits August Eurozone's CPI Final Value. 14 Sep Daily change:.14% ( ) Germany Q2 GDP rose.4% QoQ, lower than an increase of.7% in previous quarter High (~) Eurozone August CPI rose.2% YoY, same as pervious month Low ( ) Germany August manufacturing PMI arrived at 53.6, lower than 53.8 in previous month Support* ( ) Germany August Business Climate arrived at 16.2, lower than 18.3 in previous month Resistance* EUR/USD 6 month Chart EUR/USD 1 day moving average 2 day moving average EUR/USD 6 month 7 day RSI 6 3 GBP Bank of England announced to lower interest rates by 25bps to a record low of.25% in August. UK's August Consumer Prices Index rose.6% YoY, weaker than expected. GBPUSD once dropped to level. Market awaits September Rate Decision. 14 Sep Daily change: 1.6% (+) UK Q2 GDP preliminary value rose 2.2% YoY, higher than an increase of 2% in previous quarter's advance result High (+) UK August CPI rose.3% YoY, higher than a decrease of.1% in previous month Low (~) UK ILO June's 3Mths unemployment rate was at 4.9%, same as pervious month Support* (+) UK August Nationwide House Prices All Houses rose 5.6% YoY, higher than an increase of 5.2% in previous month Resistance* GBP/USD 6 month Chart GBP/USD 1 day moving average 2 day moving average 1. 9 GBP/USD 6 month 7 day RSI 6 3

3 14/9/216 NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced to lower interest rates by 25bps to a record low of 2% in August. NZD followed lower commodity price to fall. NZDUSD once dropped to.7231 level. Market awaits September Rate Decision. 14 Sep.725 Daily change: 1.37% (+) New Zealand Q1 GDP rose 2.8% YoY, higher than an increase of 2.3% in previous quarter High.7485 (~) New Zealand Q2 CPI rose.4% YoY, same as pervious quarter Low.7199 (+) New Zealand Q2 unemployment rate arrived at 5.1%, lower than 5.2% in previous quarter Support*.7138 (+) New Zealand August Commodity Price Index arrived at 3.2%, higher than 2.1% in previous month Resistance* NZD/USD 6 month Chart NZD/USD 1 day moving average 2 day moving average.6 9 NZD/USD 6 month 7 day RSI 6 3 JPY BOJ announced to maintain interest rate unchanged in July. JPY was stimulated by the news that BOJ might further cut rate. USDJPY once rose to level. Market awaits September Rate Decision. 14 Sep Daily change:.69% (+) Japan Q2 GDP rose.8% YoY, higher than an increase of.2% in previous quarter High (~) Japan July CPI nationwide ex fresh food fell.4% YoY, same as pervious month Low 1.6 (+) Japan August manufacturing PMI arrived at 49.5, higher than 49.3 in previous month Support* 1.29 ( ) Japan July Industrial Production kept flat MoM, lower than an increase of 2.3% in previous month Resistance* USD/JPY 6 month Chart USD/JPY 1 day moving average 2 day moving average USD/JPY 6 month 7 day RSI 6 3

4 14/9/216 CAD Bank of Canada announced to keep September monetary policy unchanged as expected. CAD fell with IEA's forecast that global oil oversupply could persist until 217. USDCAD once rose to level. Market awaits August Balance of Trade. 14 Sep (+) Canada June GDP rose 1.1% YoY, higher than an increase of 1% in previous month Daily change: 1.6% ( ) Canada July CPI rose 1.3% YoY, lower than an increase of 1.5% in previous month High ( ) Canada August unemployment rate arrived at 7%, higher than 6.9% in previous month Low Support* ( ) Canada August Manufacturing PMI arrived at 51.1, lower than 51.9 in previous month Resistance* USD/CAD 6 month Chart USD/CAD 1 day moving average 2 day moving average ` USD/CAD 6 month 7 day RSI 6 3

5 Important Economic Data Release Daily FX Focus 14/9/216 Analysts Previous Actual 216/9/14 Japan Capacity Utilization (MoM) Jul 1.49% - 216/9/14 UK Jobless Claims Change* Aug 1.8% -8.6% -

6 14/9/216 Current Prior Date Current Prior Date FED Fund.5.5 Canada (BOC).5.5 Europe (ECB).. Japan (BOJ).1.1 UK (BOE) Malaysia Australia (RBA) Taiwan New Zealand (RBNZ) Indonesia Please take note that the primary sources of all the charts are from Reuters dated 14 Sep 216 before 9: am