Marjorie Andrew Institute of National Affairs. 17 March 2015, Gateway Hotel

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1 Marjorie Andrew Institute of National Affairs 17 March 2015, Gateway Hotel

2 2

3 The Government of PNG (GOPNG) produced a set of national (tailored) indicators of 2004 which was incorporated into the Medium Term Development Strategy (MTDS) Also, during the preparation of the Medium Term Development Plan (MTDP) , the national indicators were re-tailored in The GOPNG adopted 91 PNG national MDG indicators; only 40 were the same as the UN official list for Goals 1-8. Hence only 40 of the 62 global indicators could be comparable with other countries in MDG reporting. 3

4 The new targets and indicators created by the GOPNG, were set to monitor the progress of the country s development plans, and less of complying with international requirements set by the UN. These adaptations were largely based on country data available, relevance and to create a sense of national ownership. For example, the global indicator 3.2 for women s empowerment, Share of women in wage employment in the non-agriculture sector, was adapted to PNG indicator 3.2 Proportion of persons age 10 and wage employment that are women. A key indicator for women s empowerment (wage employment in non-agriculture) was extended to cover all wage earners that are women. The national indicator blurs what was intended by the global indicator, so that a form of empowerment for women, remains invisible. The main concern is that some of the PNG indicators cannot be compared internationally, and secondly, the global indicator is required to calculate the Gender Development Index for PNG. 4

5 In 2009 a progress report on the MDGs in Papua New Guinea, was prepared by the Department of National Planning and Monitoring (DNPM) with technical assistance from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). The government also produced a comprehensive report on the Millennium Development Goals: Second National Progress Comprehensive Report 2010 for Papua New Guinea which provides a detailed account of progress made towards achieving the individual MDGs. A UNDP sponsored report on data availability, completeness and accuracy for monitoring the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) and human development in Papua New Guinea (Government of Papua New Guinea, 2010). This has been a valuable tool for continuing the monitoring of the MDGs and human development in PNG. 5

6 Technical assistance has been sought from UNDP to collect and analyse data for the 2015 MDG progress report. Clearly the capacity to undertake this task by the government was weak; it was reported that the position responsible for leading the monitoring of MDG indicators and target had been vacant for three years until mid Indicating the scarcity of people with statistical qualifications and experience in PNG. And also, that such international reports are unlikely to get done without the help of international donor assistance. Several government departments and agencies have strategic objectives and monitoring frameworks aligned to the MDGs, and report on an annual basis. The Departments of Health, and Education, and the National AIDS Council Secretariat, are those which have establishing monitoring systems. 6

7 The Department of National Planning & Monitoring is currently developing a measurement framework for the National Strategy for Responsible Sustainable Development for PNG. There is also a draft Policy Monitoring and Evaluation Framework will be tracking whether or not MTDP development outputs, outcomes and impacts are occurring; and whether program/project activities and outputs have taken place as planned. International agencies report off-track status of PNG s progress with the MDGs in

8 The government of PNG has tended to view the concept of poverty and especially its measurement using income, as largely irrelevant. Because of the dissatisfaction with the concept, PNG has replaced it with poverty of opportunity. This PNG specific concept relates to vulnerability, lack of opportunities and access to services. Nevertheless, the government of PNG adopted as the first MDG target to decrease by 2015, the proportion below the poverty line to 20 percent. The poverty measures for PNG, based on the 2009 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES), indicated that the proportion of people below the food poverty line was 26.5%, while for the basic needs poverty line (upper limit), it was 39.9%. This represents some 2.8 million people in PNG experiencing basic needs poverty, with 1.9 million facing hunger, at that time. 8

9 The national MDG target for reduction of hunger is to increase the total agriculture commercially production by 10% and subsistence production by 34%. The indicators for this target are related to people s nutritional status, particularly infants and children under five years. There is no data on the total number of people who are hungry. Survey results show that there is no evidence of any decline in poverty in PNG between 1996 and 2009/2010. However, the health indicators reveal that since 2010 to 2014, there was a reduction in the proportion of babies born with low birth weight, therefore it could be deduced that there has also been an improvement in mother s nutritional status. The nutritional status of children under five appears to be gradually reducing. Unemployment slightly decreased from 2.8 % to 2.6% between 2000 and

10 National Indicator National target 2015 Underweight births (% of total births) % Underweight children <age 5 years (%) % 10

11 Progress between 2008 and 2013 towards achieving the national target of MDG 2 National Indicator Gross enrollment ratio of Grade 3 to 8 Cohort Retention Ratio Gross Completion Rate Youth literacy rate (15-24) Adult literacy rate (25 +) National target * ** ** Census

12 Under MDG3, PNG has committed to eliminate gender disparity at the primary and lower secondary education levels by 2015 and at the upper secondary level and above by Progress indicators for PNG MDG 3 are: For education At primary school level the gender gap has narrowed in the last 15 years. The Gender Parity Index for adults aged over 25 years and over was 0.80 in Female youth literacy rate were projected to be much higher than that of males in 2010, according to UNESCO indicators it was 1.1 as its Gender Parity Index. 12

13 Target/ Indicator No. Proposed (MTDP ) Source National target 2015 Indicator 3.1 Gender Parity Index of students in primary education Gender Parity Index of students in secondary education 3.2 Proportion (%) of persons age 10 and wage employment that are women DOE DOE Census Proportion (%) of seats held by women in national Parliament Election results 0.9% 2.7% 3.4 Gender Parity Index of literate year old persons 3.5 Gender Parity Index of literate adults (age 15 and over) 3.6 Proportions (%) of persons age 10 and over with money income from any source that are women Census 0.91 Census 0.80 Census

14 Progress between 2010 and 2013 towards achieving the childhood mortality target National Indicator Under-five Mortality Rate (%) Proportion of 1-year old children immunized National target per * 14

15 Proportion (%) of 1-year old children immunized with Triple Antigen (3 rd dose) per year Infant Mortality Rate Neonatal Mortality Rate per

16 The Department of Health officially accepts the Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) published by the National Statistical Office from the 2006 DHS, as does the PNG Development Strategic Plan; the target is by 2030, reduce Maternal Mortality Rate from 733 per 100,000 to below 100. Based on the MDG Second National Progress Comprehensive Report 2010 for PNG, the MMR produced by the NSO cannot be used due to the lack of robustness of the methodology that was used. 16

17 The percentage of women attending antenatal clinics improved from 62% in 2010 to 66% in 2012 but declined to 64% the following year. The percentage of births supervised at delivery in health facilities, improved from 40% in 2010 to 43% in Family planning rates have significantly decreased over the last five years in PNG, excluding the use of condoms. The NHIS reports on Couple years of protection (CYP), for which in 2010, the national family planning use was 86 CYP which then reduced to 41 CYP in

18 Surveillance analysis for 2009 found that HIV prevalence was an estimated 0.92 per cent of the adult population. The prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS in PNG in 2013 is estimated to be 0.65 % for the population aged 15 years and over. A positive trend is noted in the prevalence rate for HIV/AIDS for pregnant women aged Over the period 2010 to 2013, the prevalence rate for young pregnant women has remained within the target of 0.79 %, declining slowly each year. The incidence and death rates associated with malaria per 1000 population per year has significantly reduced from 236/1000 population in 2010 to 151/1000 population in 2013, surpassing the 2015 target of 180/

19 The PNG IMR evaluation found that 68% of households owned at least two treated mosquito bed nets, up from 38% in The data shows a significant increase in the number of TB cases detected from 88/100,000 in 2011 to 112/100,000 in 2012, tripling in 2013 at 320/100,000. The treatment and success rate (%) of sputum positive TB cases has struggled to remain at around 71% in 2013, below the 2015 target of 80%. 19

20 The monitoring of MDG 7 is uncoordinated and the most difficult. Attempts were made to interview the PNG National Forest Authority but there was no feedback on the status of their targets and indicators. The Office of Climate Change and Development advised that they are currently preparing a report on environmental sustainability including current carbon dioxide emissions. PNG will miss out on its MDG water and sanitation targets for 2015 and, unless the new WaSH Policy is properly resourced and implemented. At present it is estimated that in urban areas, 89% access safe water, and 57% access safe sanitation. PNG s periurban and rural population remain at 33% access to safe water, and 13% safe sanitation. 20

21 MDG 8 is about joint responsibility for expanded partnership between advanced and developing countries, as well as bilateral and multilateral institutions. To date, PNG has not been able to produce a full progress report on the status of MDG 8. This is not acceptable, given that several of the indicators are critical for PNG s future and could destroy the gains made with MDG 1-7, if not properly monitored and managed; such as debt problems, trade, energy, information telecommunication, and foreign aid. 21

22 The sustained regular collection and reporting of reliable data for monitoring of the MDGs in PNG requires dedicated resources, systems and technical experts to make this happen. It was apparent that the coordination of the MDG information and analysis and reporting relies very much on support from international donors, especially the UNDP. The DNPM servicing the MDG TWG needs to work closer with the government agencies to ensure that their reporting of service statistics and analysis complies with the global MDG indicators as well as for the national indicators. On the issue of the Maternal Mortality Rate used by the NSO in the Demographic Health Survey of 2006 being unusable, it is critical that firm political leadership be sought to demand that the MMR be accurately assessed and that stronger measures be put in place to address one of PNG s most serious issues. 22

23 Progress reports on the global MDGs have all rated PNG as off track. This may be so, however PNG has halted and reversed the trend for several MDGs. Gains have been made in the areas of childhood mortality, hunger, HIV/AIDS, malaria, and education. Major challenges remain both with indicators and implementation relating to all, but especially with poverty, literacy, TB, maternal mortality, family planning, environmental sustainability, and global partnerships. 23

24 24

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