Annual Needs and Livelihood Assessment Juba, 15 February 2010

Transcription

1 Annual Needs and Livelihood Assessment 2009 Juba, 15 February 2010

2 SOUTHERN SUDAN-ANLA

3 UN Agencies WFP,UNMIS/RRR, UNHCR,FAO,UNICEF NGOs SC- S, CRS, PHO, CARITAS, LWF, WVI, Tearfund, C ordaid, RI, IRD, MAH, AMA, EC, HARD, WOTAP, SRCS, CARE, ADRA, MCDI,OXFAM- UK, ACF, AMURT, Government institutions SSRRC, SMARF, SMOH, SMOEST, SMOSD, SMO PI

4 Methodology Two stage approach: - purposive selection of locations based on how well they represent their livelihood zone. - random selection of households in location. Tools: Structured questionnaire used for HHs (2080) Semi structured discussions with Focus groups (420) Semi structured interviews with key informants (210) First round in October (4 states) second round in November (3 states) Unity included in December due to insecurity.

5 Sample size by states and livelihood zones State EEQ 300 Jonglei 269 Lakes 341 Upper Nile 269 WBEG 301 NBEG 300 Warrap 300 Livelihood zeastern Flood plain 267 Hills and Mountains 242 Ironstone Plateau 495 Nile Sobat 209 Pastoral 150 Western Flood Plain 717

6 Indicators and Analysis Food consumption score (poor, borderline, acceptable). Food access (share of expenditure on food-using cutoffs, income-reliability and sustainability). Coping mechanism (low, medium, high). Market prices Recent displacement/insecurity

7 Demographics Residence status Residents 85% Returnees 8% IDPs 6% Average Household size is 8 (7.5 in 2008) ranging from 6 in the hills zone and 11,5 in the Eastern Flood plains zone Some 50% of households are female headed. This is much higher than in 2008 (12%) but is most likely caused by difference in the understanding of polygamous marriages. Limitation of ANLA 2009 No nutrition and anthropometric measurements were included and thus impact on nutritional status from series of shocks is unknown.

8 Availability Availability

9 2009 Production The late and sporadic start to the rains, led to poor establishment for crops planted at the recommended time, or to late planting. Time of planting; sorghum planted in June performed acceptably, whereas sorghum planted in early July in the same area performed very poorly. Civil insecurity, which in many areas resulted in crops being poorly tended. 66% reduced the area of cultivation compared with last year for both short- and long term sorghum as well as for Cassava, maize and other crops.

10 Production (continued) 35-40% reduction in production in traditional agriculture compared with last year. Serious shortage of seeds. Feeder roads are mostly unusable, obstacle to farmers access to inputs and serious disincentive to surplus production. Poor rains are expected to result in heightened competition for scarce pasture. Unusually high level of cattle sales amongst pastoralists

11 Estimated Agricultural Production in 2009 Based on the two assessments (Rapid Crop Assessment and the Crop and Food Security Assessment): MAF-GOSS/FAO estimates cereal production in 2009 to be around 660,000MT for the 2009 agricultural season. The stated production when compared previous production is 38 percent below last year s figure of 1.07 million tonnes, 10 percent below the previous five years average.

12 Per Capita Consumption requirement of all people in the States (MT) per year Consumption per annum has been estimated to be tonnes The difference between production and consumption is tonnes The gap should be filled through GOSS Strategic Reserve, Humanitarian Assistance and Commercial Imports

13 Prices in 2009 peaked in June/July and dropped sharply after that, however they have since, either stabilised at a high level or increased sharply back again like in Bor. Prices are much higher than in 2008 which was the year of global food price crisis.

14 Sorghum Sacks Terms of trade Sorghum Sacks Per Cattle Sold Malakal Wau Aweil Juba Bor 0.00 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D The TOT in Juba has reduced alarmingly since May. All markets apart from Juba continued to reduce in December. Cattle owners get half or one third of what their cattle was worth last year indicating the relative shortage of cereals in the region.

15 Food Access

16 Mean Ow nership of assets EEQ Jonglei Lakes Upper Nile WBEG NBEG Warrap All states w ealth assets productive assets all assets The States with most assets are WBEG and Upper Nile. Most households own less than 2 productive assets (agricultural tools mainly)

17 Sources of food 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% EEQ Jonglei Lakes Upper Nile WBEG NBEG Warrap All states Ow n production Market Hunting Gathering Own production plays a very important role in households food supply. Upper Nile, WBEG, Lakes and NBEG do however already rely more on the market than from own production.

18 SDG Price of Minimum Healthy Food Basket FSMS Aug 09 FSMS Aug 09 NBEG Warrap Jonglei EEQ Warrap Upper Nile Lakes WBEG NBEG The basket consists of culturally accepted items that are commonly consumed by households in Southern Sudan.

19 Purchasing Power Warrap NBEG WBEG Upper Nile Lakes Jonglei EEQ 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0-½ minimum food basket ½-1 minimum food basket >1 minimum food basket

20 Share of expenditure spent on food 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 52% 63% 29% 19% 34% 27% 25% 21% 52% 37% 25% 41% 20% >65% 50-65% 40% 17% 18% <50% 30% 20% 10% 31% 13% 24% 52% 39% 54% 30% 39% 39% 0% EEQ Jonglei Lakes Upper Nile WBEG NBEG Warrap All st at es. Jonglei, EEQ and NBEG are particularly vulnerable to shocks as their margin is very small. They do not have much left to spend on non-food items, let alone education and health.

21 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 62% Total expenditures on all food versus expenditures on staples foods 37% 69% 52% 47% 29% 55% 49% 25% 23% 61% 54% 28% 28% EEQ Jonglei Lakes Upper Nile WBEG NBEG Warrap All states 56% 32% Share of expenditures spent on all types of Food Share of expenditures spent on staples (cereals)

22 Percentage of expenditure spent on different items-southern Sudan Other food items, 4% Sugar/honey, 6% Clothing/shoes, 6% Milling/grinding, 3% Cooking oil, 4% Tobacco/alcohol,, 4% Pulses, 3% Meat/fish, 6% Fruits/vegetable, 1% Cereals, 31%

23 Main sources of income 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% % EEQ Jonglei Lakes Upper Nile WBEG NBEG Warrap Sale of cereals Sale of livestock Sale of alcoholic beverages Casual labour - agriculture Salaried work Sale of firewood Sale of charcoal Sale of grass EEQ: Jonglei: Lakes: Upper Nile: WBEG: NBEG: Warrap: Sale of livestock, sale of alcohol Sale of firewood, livestock and cereal Sale of cereal Salaried work, sale of firewood, casual labour Sale of cereal, charcoal Alcohol, sale of grass and firewood Sale of livestock, alcohol and cereal

24 Reliability and Sustainability of m ain incom e sources Good Medium 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% % 26 46% % 23 39% 37% EEQ Jonglei Lakes Upper Nile 35 40% % 46% 27% Poor 40% % 26 WBEG NBEG Warrap All states Reliable and sustainable income sources are; skilled labour, salaried work, sale of cereal and livestock Unreliable and unsustainable sources are; firewood, charcoal, grass, begging, gifts from relatives

25 Utilisation

26 Food consumpt i on scor e 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 23% 42% 47% 48% 53% 53% 47% 37% 66% % 32% 23% 27% 19% 40% 34% 28 23% 15% 15% 24% 26% EEQ Jonglei Lakes Upper Nile WBEG NBEG Warrap All st at es Poor food consumption Borderline food consumption Acceptable food consumption The states with the worst food consumption are EEQ, Jonglei and Lakes. Nearly 70% in Upper Nile have an acceptable food intake.

27 Number of days consumed in the last week Food consumption by food security status Sorghum Maize Cassava Other cereals and tubers Pulses Vegetables Fruits Meat Eggs Fish Dairy Sugar Fats Severely food insecure Moderately food insecure Food secure Severely food insecure lack protein and fat as they consume oil/fats less than one day per week and hardly ever pulses/meat/fish/eggs. Fruits or vegetables are consumed 3 days per week resulting in lack in micro nutrients in the diets.

28 Food Security Food Security

29 Coping Strategies Affected households have developed alternative strategies: Searching more income from sale of natural resources such as firewood, charcoal, grass, bamboo poles. Increased sales of livestock. Increased reliance on kinship assistance. People also consume more wild foods than normally at this time of the year. Increased consumption and sale of fish (positive).

30 Proportion of households that are food secure Food security - comparing 2008 and % 60% 40% 20% 0% EEQ Jonglei Lakes Upper Nile WBEG NBEG Warrap Unity ANLA 2008/09 ANLA 2009/10 There is a serious decline in food security in EEQ, Jonglei, Upper Nile and NBEG

31 F o o d Securit y St at us 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 28% 42% 38% 47% 61% 58% 53% 47% 42% 28% 43% 34% 27% 32% 24% 28% 30% 30% 19% 12% 18% 19% 20% 21% EEQ Jonglei Lakes Upper Nile WBEG NBEG Warrap All st at es Severely food insecure Moderately food insecure Food secure EEQ is by far the worst State with only 28% food secure during the harvest season. Lakes and WBEG are the only States doing relatively well so far

32 Food security status by Livelihood zone 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 43% 33% 24% Eastern Flood plain 23% 32% 45% Hills and Mountains 52% 54% 27% 21% Ironstone Plateau 35% 11% 32% 43% 24% 55% 31% 14% Nile Sobat Pastoral Western Flood Plain Severely food insecure Moderately food insecure Food secure The Hills and Mountain zone has by far most food insecure households.

33 Characteristics of severely food insecure households A third are IDPs (34%), slightly less are returnees (27%) and only a fifth (19%) are residents. They have less of their food coming from own production (apart from NBEG) and they have more coming from gathering of wild foods. There are slightly more households with chronically ill members. Differences at state level are seen in type of shocks experienced by food insecure HHs but no difference at Southern Sudan level between food security groups.

34 WFP Strategy WFP will in 2010 assist 4.3 million an increase of 3 million since Some 1.6 million are severely food insecure 2.7 million are moderately food insecure WFP will focus on prevention of further decline through: GFD to severely food insecure until the next early harvest Seasonal support to moderately food insecure through different modalities during lean season Blanket supplementary feeding during the lean season to children under 5 in three prioritised states. Continue with Food For Education, DDR and institutional feeding.

35 600 Why do we need to assist moderately food insecure in 2010? Resilient Household Household resources Shock 1 Shock 2 Shock 3 t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7 t8 t9 t10 t11 t Household resources Exposure to shock Ability to cope Shock 1 Shock 2 Shock 3 t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7 t8 t9 t10 t11 t12

36 Other Recommendations Increased investment in agriculture Increased seed distribution due to shortages in coming season. Expand selective feeding programmes and nutritional education to mothers. Invest in road construction/rehabilitation to improve market access Livelihood support and diversification projects

37 Short Terms measures Review the GOSS strategic reserves to determine what is available to cover the grain deficits Convene a meeting with the donors to assist in covering the deficit to compliment the GOSS efforts Review the plans on GOSS input supplies Convene a meeting with FAO and other donors to source seeds and tools to ensure agricultural production vaccines and fishing equipment Eliminate tax on staple major staple food crops

38 Long Term Measures Increase budgetary allocation to MAF and MARF to increase agricultural production There is an indication that climate variability is affecting Southern Sudan reality. Hence, there is need to adjust the cropping patterns and practices by using the short and medium maturing varieties, water harvesting. There is need to encourage farmer to diversify their crops (eg cowpeas, sweet potatoes, pumpkins) Strengthening of the extension service to provide training to farmers of new sustainable technologies (e.g. supplementary irrigation, water harvesting)

39 Information on Reports Final State Reports will be circulated this week: - Warrap -Jonglei -Lakes The following week: NBEG, WBEG, UpperNile,EEQ and Unity. Southern Sudan ANLA report end of February.

40 THANK YOU!