Adaptation in Helsinki and it's costs and benefits

Transcription

1 Adaptation in Helsinki and it's costs and benefits Jari Viinanen , 3 rd International BaltCICA Conference Part-financed by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund)

2 Case Helsinki (content) 1. Evaluation of plans and programmes etc. Measures that are already used by the city Legislation 2. Impacts of climate change in Helsinki Risks and vulnerability 3. Definition of adaptation measures Necessary additional measures 4. Costs and benefits from the city s perspective Testing of cost-benefit analysis 2

3 1. Evaluation of plans and programmes Plans, strategies etc: Contingency plans to secure the energy supply system 2010 Survey of adaptation measures in building and maintaining public spaces 2010 Short-term action plan for a sudden deterioration of air quality in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area 2010 (street dust, forest fires) Guidelines for maintenance of forests and green areas 2009 Flood strategy 2008 Storm water strategy 2007 The government has obligated the municipalities to investigate in : Flood risk areas Storm water risk areas 3

4 1.1. Storm water strategy Objectives: - Improving the management and utilization of storm waters - Prevention of storm water damages Measures deal with: - Land use planning - Building, permit procedures - Planning and building of public spaces - Planning and building of the sewage network Kuva: HKR, Viikinoja Kuva: Jari Viinanen 4

5 1.2. Flood strategy Objectives: - Mainly prevention of flood damages due to high sea water levels Measures deal with: - Purchasing of flood protection structures and equipment - Alert systems - Inventory of flood risk areas and sites - Preparation of instructions for flood protection 5

6 2. Climate change impacts in Helsinki Background studies Climate and sea level change scenarios for the area (Finnish Meteorological Institute) 2. Modelling the risks of river floods in River Espoo and Vantaa (Finnish Environment Institute SYKE) 3. A study of impacts of climate change in the region and survey of existing preparedness plans, programs, guidelines, legislation and adaptation research (HSY) 4. Experts and planners of the cities were also interviewed on the consequences of extreme weather to their everyday work (LCLIP) Climate is changing in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area 6

7 3. Definition of adaptation measures -Evaluation method Land-use and buildings (Sector) Climate change induced risk Measure Increased temperature, mild winters Increased cooling Increased rain, floods Flood risk for historical buildings Winds, storms Need for cooling of public buildings assessment Flood risk assessment, assesment of costs Steering mechanism in Helsinki (strategy, group, ) Report Flood strategy 7

8 Additional measures 24 measures were identified which were new or only partially realized measures. Taking into account climate change adaptation in land use planning (storm waters, sea floods, green areas) Enhancing the advisory role of the building regulation department Investigating the need of cooling public buildings Increasing the number of trees and green areas in the city Incorporating management of storm water into the lease conditions of plots Modelling of flooding in small brooks Climate sustainability of construction materials Evaluation of flood protection structures in valuable buildings and sites Instructions to organisers of public events (storms) Contingency planning for exceptional conditions in road maintenance Evaluating how well tunnels and other sites can withstand flooding Taking into account climate risks in rescue operations and preparedness planning Mapping the risk factors to home-care and out-patient care (operations) 8

9 Conclusions o Flood risk management is quite well advanced on national level due to EU legislation o Need for city level adaptation coordination: decisions made in different city committees o Need for integration of climate change adaptation in the activities of all the departments o Prioritization of measures o Information to the inhabitants about adaptation included in information about climate change mitigation 9

10 4. Evaluation of the costs Costs and benefits incurred by the city were estimated Modelling of costs and benefits in 8 cases One case was calculated using the cost-benefit analysis HKR: Tulvakohteiden määrittely, esiselvitys 10

11 Examples of costs Incident Additional cost from heavy snowfalls 2010 Additional cost from slippery conditions 2011 (pedestrian injuries caused by slipping) Additional cost to the health care system from sudden deterioration of air quality Costs of reducing overflowing in the waste water treatment system Replacing old combined sewers with new separated sewers for wastewater and storm water Measures to be implemented according to the flood strategy until 2014 (1-2 Me used annually) Cost 11 Me 0.2 Me e/day 2 Me/ m3 1 Me/km 4,5 Me 11

12 Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) o o o o o Cost-benefit analysis is a tool for decision making helping to investigate the profitability of a project to society Benefits mean increases in the welfare of the people Costs mean decreases in the welfare of the people The project is worthwhile if the benefits to society are larger than the costs (net social benefit) Time is taken into account in CBA by discounting (the benefits and costs are converted into present values) 12

13 Steps of cost-benefit analysis List alternative projects List stakeholders Select measurement(s) and measure all cost and benefits elements Predict outcome of cost and benefits over relevant time period Apply discount rate. Convert all costs and benefits into a common currency. Calculate net present value of project options Perform sensitivity analysis Adopt recommended choice 13

14 Case 1. Flood protection of existing coastal built areas Costs Alternatively different flood barriers X m height (permanent or temporary) Investment (building/purchasing), maintenance Benefits Avoidance of flood damages evaluating if the buildings damaged by flood can be repaired of not safeguarding property prices (the image of the area) safeguarding business and transport activities, avoiding damages to the infrastructure HKR: Tulvakohteiden määrittely, esiselvitys Foto: Pekka Kansanen Foto: Jari Viinanen 14

15 Case 1. Flood protection of existing coastal built areas (Baseline data) o Area o Small-house area in Helsinki (coast line 2,3 km) Buildings from 40 s to 00 s some of them very near the coast line No production facilities nor shops, schools or other commercial and public services, only small businesses Flood cases A dike for +2 m sea flood covering the whole coast line A dike for +3 m sea flood covering the whole coast line Temporary barrier made from big bags for +2 m sea flood covering the coast line Temporary barrier made from big bags for +3 m sea flood covering the coast line A dike for +2 m sea flood covering the area only partially 15

16 Case 1. Flood protection of existing coastal built areas (Baseline data) o About CBA calculations and basic assumptions Basic data is acquired by analysing flood maps with GIS CBA calculations and parameter estimations are based on publicly available data Time horizon from 2012 to 2100 Yet, no changes in number of population and building stock Flood probabilities 1/100 a and 1/250 a No distributional considerations Discount rate 5 % and intergenerational discounting based Sumaila and Walters (2005) Not a full-scale and in-depth CBA! Calculations merely utilise the CBA method and framework 16

17 o Case 1. Flood protection of existing coastal built areas (Costs and Benefits) Costs Building costs of a dike or purchasing costs of temporary flood barriers and their maintenance o Benefits Avoided direct flood damages and impacts residential and non-residential buildings movables, furniture and equipment infrastructure health effects, injuries and loss of life Avoided indirect flood damages and impacts traffic disruptions loss of production emergency costs effects on capital values of the buildings other post-flood intangible inconveniences 17

18 Case 1. Flood protection of existing coastal built areas (Results) o Net-present values with dicount rate 5 % Dike +2 m Dike +3 m Barrier +2 m Barrier +3 m Dike +2 (partly) -3,4 MEUR -5,3 MEUR +1,0 MEUR +0,2 MEUR +0,5 MEUR o Estimated error marginal ±0,5 MEUR Results will be presented in more detail Helsinki metropolitan area climate adaptation strategy, 18

19 Summary of costs Flooding is the most serious threat to society. From the city s perspective the highest costs come from the building of green areas needed for storm water systems and the building and maintenance of the road network Cost-benefit analyses would be useful tool for planner Developing an information database for climate change impact costs. The case study implies that costs of fixed flood protection systems are larger than its benefits. Temporary protection structures is economically viable choice especially if the indirect impacts are taken into account fully. Still, more reliable analysis requires more detailed information. 19

20 THANK YOU! Report: Keinoja ilmastonmuutokseen sopeutumiseksi Helsingin kaupungissa (Climate change adaptation practices in the City of Helsinki)