UkrAgroConsult Black Sea Grain 2013 Ukraine: Winter Crop Conditions and Grain Production Prospects for 2013/14

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1 UkrAgroConsult Black Sea Grain 2013 Ukraine: Winter Crop Conditions and Grain Production Prospects for 2013/14 Mark Lindeman Foreign Agricultural Service U. S. Department of Agriculture

2 2013/14 Grains and Oilseeds: Early Conditions and Prospects Highlight bullets Sown area of winter grains similar to last year. Generally good establishment conditions. Minimal frost damage; very low winter losses. Crop-assessment team observed good w-c conditions. Initial USDA estimates for 2013/14 on May 10.

3 Sown area was about the same as last year, but winter losses were much lower. Sources: State Statistical Committee; Ministry of Agriculture

4 Satellite Derived Surface Wetness Anomalies for the Former Soviet Union October 15-21, 2012 Base Period The moisture situation for winter crops improved by mid-october except in southeastern Ukraine. Data source: WeatherPredict Consulting (WPC) Inc.

5 Ukraine and European Russia: MODIS NDVI Departure from Mean October 31 - November 15, 2012 Vegetative indices from early November indicated better-thanaverage establishment conditions for winter crops in Ukraine.

6 Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine: Landsat-7 Satellite Imagery 10-November-2012 False-color satellite imagery: red denotes vegetation.

7 Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine: Landsat-7 Satellite Imagery 08-November-2011 False-color satellite imagery: red denotes vegetation.

8 Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine: Landsat-7 Satellite Imagery 08-November November-2012 False-color satellite imagery: red denotes vegetation.

9 MODIS Satellite Imagery 15-December-2012 Ukraine and European Russia RS Central District Ukraine Volgograd Rostov MODIS satellite imagery indicates the presence of protective snow cover for winter crops in most of Ukraine in mid- December, immediately prior to an episode of bitterly cold weather, while parts of Russia s Southern District were devoid of snow cover. Green denotes vegetation, red denotes bare soil, and blue denotes snow.

10 Source: Ministry of Agriculture

11 Percent Soil Moisture (%) Ukraine Steppe Zone: Percent Soil Moisture (WMO Station) January 1 to March 31 Legend Jan 1 Jan 7 Jan 15 Jan 23 Jan 31 Feb 7 Feb 14 Feb 22 Mar 1 Mar 8 Mar 15 Mar 23 Mar 31 Date (day) USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis (OGA) Subsoil moisture reserves are at about 70% capacity in the Steppe Zone of Ukraine, and at or near full capacity in the Forest and Forest- Steppe Zones. Only Kherson and Crimea are reporting unusually low moisture.

12 Ukraine: MODIS NDVI Departure from Average, March 30 April 6, 2013 Vegetative indices indicate that Ukraine winter-crop conditions are generally better than average. Conditions have improved in recent weeks in south-central Ukraine but deteriorated in eastern Ukraine. Sources: NASA-GSFC; USDA/FAS

13 Travel Route of USDA Crop-Assessment Team April 8-13

14 Poltava Oblast 8-April-2013 Winter wheat after corn

15 Poltava Oblast 09-April-2012 Winter wheat after corn

16 Kherson Oblast 10-April-2013 Winter wheat after fallow

17 65 Kherson Percent Soil Moisture (WMO Station) January 1 to March 31 Legend Percent Soil Moisture (%) Jan 1 Jan 7 Jan 14 Jan 22 Jan 30 Feb 6 Feb 13 Feb 21 Feb 29 Mar 7 Mar 15 Mar 23 Mar 31 Date (day) USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis (OGA) Subsoil moisture reserves are at about 70% capacity in the Steppe Zone of Ukraine, and at or near full capacity in the Forest and Forest- Steppe Zones. Only Kherson and Crimea are reporting unusually low moisture.

18 Nikolayev Oblast 11-April-2013 Winter wheat after wheat

19 Nikolayev Oblast 13-April-2012 Winter wheat after wheat

20 Planting of early spring grains was only 50 percent complete as of April 12.

21 Assuming trend yield and 5-percent increase in harvested area, corn output is forecast at 25 million tons with a yield of 5.4 tons per hectare. Note that estimate for 2013 is not the official USDA forecast. Initial USDA estimates will be released May10, Sources: USDA ( ); private estimate (2013)

22 Source: State Statistical Committee Assuming same harvested area as last year and yield similar to 2011, sunseed output could reach mmt.

23 Assuming yield similar to last year and 6-percent increase in harvested area, soybean output is forecast at 3.0 million tons. Note that estimate for 2013 is not the official USDA forecast. Initial USDA estimates will be released May10, Sources: USDA ( ); private estimate (2013)

24 Ukr 2012 forecasts (Apr) Ukraine: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production of Major Crops (Not official USDA data) Final Forecast Final Forecast Final Forecast Wheat Barley Corn Sunseed Rapeseed Soybeans Sources: USDA (2012); unofficial forecasts (2013)

25 USDA web sites USDA Web Sites: Crop Explorer Google Crop Explorer World Agriculture Production circular Google World Agricultural Production PSD Online Google PSD Online WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand) Google WASDE

26

27 Early Forecasts of U.S. Crop Production Not official USDA data. Initial USDA estimates will be released May 10, Ukr 2012 forecasts (Apr) Area (MHa) Yield (T/Ha) Output (MMT) Percent change Wheat % Corn % Soybeans % Source: World Agricultural Outlook Board, February 2013

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