Megatrends and Disruptions

Transcription

1 Megatrends and Disruptions The future of procurement logistics Detlef Gürtler Dr. Stefan Penthin 21st April 2015, Basel

2 Agenda Megatrends and Disruptions Megatrends in procurement logistics Disruptions in procurement logistics Impact on procurement logistics

3 Before Disruption After Disruption 18,000 18,000 16,000 16,000 14,000 14,000 12,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 Turnover in bn 10,000 8,000 Turnover in bn 6,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 I/05 II/05 III/05 IV/05 I/06 II/06 III/06 IV/06 I/07 II/07 III/07 IV/07 18,000 Nokia turnover 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 Turnover in bn 6,000 4,000 I/05 IV/05 III/06 II/07 I/08 IV/08 III/09 II/10 I/11 IV/11 III/12 II/13

4 The dream of Eternal Growth

5 And the rude awakening

6 The dream of a Soft Landing

7 And the inconvenient truth

8 Megatrends and Countertrends Countertrend: more stability and orientation Megatrend: more dynamics and options

9 Seven steps of Technology ENVISIONED: The idea phase, nothing created yet. PROTOTYPE: Development inside a laboratory. APPLIED: Limited deployment, to test feasability and scalability. TECHNOLOGY SHIFT: Scale up of the technology. More deployments. ESTABLISHED: The technology is an integral part of our life. VITAL: Difficult to live without this technology. NATURALIZED: We use it every day and do not even realize that it is a technology. of Mind FAR OUT: Sounds (or is) like sciencefiction. NOT ACCEPTED: Ideas that cannot and should not, be met yet. CONTROVERSIAL/NICHE: Adopted in niches, society is sceptical or hostile. MIND SHIFT: Change of mental models or habits. ACCEPTED: Getting used to see and use it. WANTED: Is, or should be part of daily life. NATURALIZED: Has become part of the mental DNA.

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11 GDI Disruption Map Robot companies Self-driving cars Telekinesis

12 Agenda Megatrends and Disruptions Megatrends in procurement logistics Disruptions in procurement logistics Impact on procurement logistics

13 Ongoing Globalization: Africa is the new Asia Individualization: Lot size 1 Flexibilization: 60/60/24/7/52 Automatization: Sensorism 13

14 New Entries Digitalization: It s D-Time Sharing: Lot size 0 Trans-Humanization: Intelligence of Things Age of Less: Good instead of goods 14

15 Agenda Megatrends and Disruptions Megatrends in procurement logistics Disruptions in procurement logistics Impact on procurement logistics

16 Un-Transport on site production 3D printing: Toy becomes tool 16

17 Uberization Just in time wherever you are Cloudsourcing: There will be an Uber for (almost) everything, from dog-walking (Swifto) to cash (nimbl). 17

18 DAC Robocomps Driverless Cars? Peopleless Firms! 18

19 The next PC Personal Container: Standardized and intelligent transport boxes in household (and start-up and SME) sizes. 19

20 Agenda Megatrends and Disruptions Megatrends in procurement logistics Disruptions in procurement logistics Impact on procurement logistics

21 Four megatrends affecting companies Supply Chains until 2020 The SCM megatrends overlap and reinforce each other 1 Digitalization Globalization 2 further integration of digital technologies across supply chains which support information processing and storage at higher speed, flexibility, reliability and lower costs. 3 Sustainability Volatility & Complexity 4 reaction of companies to the pressing forces of climate change, strained resources and transparency which require careful consideration of sustainability aspects in business decisions. SCM Megatrends further expansion of companies supply chains beyond domestic and national markets to other markets around the globe. reaction of companies to the pressing forces of climate change, strained resources and transparency which require careful consideration of sustainability aspects in business decisions. 21

22 Innovations influencing SCM with respect to People, Processes and Technology Digitalization and Supply Chain Management overlap along several aspects People Processes Social Media Collaboration Lean-ERP Real-time connectivity Big Data / Cloud Data Integrity EDI / ERP Processes Drones 3D Printing Technology 22

23 Innovations and their impact on Supply Chain Management Operational Excellence and Digital Processes Potential Impact on SCM Source New modes of transportation New ways of production Real-time connectivity Big Data / Cloud Lean-ERP EDI / ERP Future Potential 23

24 Integrating Lean Production and Digital Technology just began to unfold its potential Digital-Lean supports pull-based methods while in parallel enabling vertical data integration End-to-End Supply Chain Visibility Supplier (2nd tier) Supplier (1st tier) OEM Company Assembly Customer JIT/EDI JIS/EDI Warehouse JIT/EDI Distribution Supplier (2nd tier) ekanban Soft Processing Supermarket Oven Supermarket Hard Processing JIT/EDI JIT/EDI External Pre-ASSY Characteristics Agile solution combining virtues of Lean and ERP Maximization of pull-based material flow => Reduction of inventory levels Allowing full supply chain visibility => Enable agile forecasting, e.g. early warning in case of demand fluctuations 24

25 Innovations and their impact on Supply Chain Management DIGITALIZATION - Big Data, Cloud and Real-time connectivity Potential Impact on SCM Source New modes of transportation New ways of production Real-time connectivity Big Data / Cloud Lean-ERP EDI / ERP Future Potential 25

26 Effective business networks increase the value creation of the Supply Chain The Integration of Business Networks increases the efficiency of value creations Sourcing markets Sales markets Procurement 26

27 Innovations and their impact on Supply Chain Management New modes of Transportation and Production Potential Impact on SCM Source New modes of transportation New ways of production Real-time connectivity Big Data / Cloud Lean-ERP EDI / ERP Future Potential 27

28 Will new technologies revolutionalize Supply Chain Management? Drones replacing two supply chain levels Supply Chain Classic Information Demand Production Wholesale Retail Destination Material Products Production Distribution Supply Chain Tomorrow Example 1 Information Demand Production Destination Material Products Production Distribution 28

29 Will new technologies revolutionalize Supply Chain Management? Can information flow replace material flow? Supply Chain Classic Supplier OEM Company Customer Information Flow Sales Order Procurement Plan S & OP Plan Sales Order Procurement Material Flow Inbound Flow Production Outbound Flow Supply Chain Tomorrow Example 2 OEM Company Customer Information Flow Plan Product Engineering Sales Order Procurement MF* Supplier Sales Data* *) Material Flow *) SPS code / CAD code / licences / warranty / etc. 29

30 Innovations and their impact on Supply Chain Management What will come next? Potential Impact on SCM Source? New modes of transportation New ways of production Real-time connectivity Big Data / Cloud Lean-ERP EDI / ERP Future Potential 30

31 New technology brings about a set of questions to be adressed Potential Issues from the viewpoint of SCM, Procurement and Inbound Logistics Think about what exactly will you be buying in future? => e.g. product / data streams / warranty / licenses How will new technology change the rules of the game? => e.g. shifts in purchasing power / significance of legal advise What will your Supply Chain look like in future? => e.g. physical supply chain vs. information flow Following presentations: 12:00 - Beschaffungslogistik als Schlüsselrolle im Business Netzwerk 15:00 - Aufbau einer Cloud-basierten Einkaufs- und Logistikgesellschaft 16:15 - EMMI: Zielgerichtet auf dem Weg zu einer vollintegrierten Milchwirtschaft 31

32 Contact Detlef Guertler Dr. Stefan Penthin Partner BearingPoint Erika-Mann-Straße 9 D München Germany T M detlef.guertler@gdi.ch stefan.penthin@bearingpoint.com Diese Präsentation ist urheberrechtlich geschützt. Jede Art des Vervielfältigens ist verboten. Wiedergaben sind nur mit schriftlicher Bewilligung des Autors erlaubt. This presentation is protected by copyright. Any form of copying is prohibited. Reproduction is permitted only subject to the written consent of the author. 32