CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY IN THE HIGHLANDS

Transcription

1 CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY IN THE HIGHLANDS THE CASE OF KAGHAN VALLEY IN KHYBER PAKHTUN KHWA, PAKISTAN Babar Shahbaz University of Agriculture, Faisalabad SDPI, Islamabad

2 Introduction & context South Asia highly vulnerable to climate change Warming in Himalayan is higher than global average Increasing temperature; and mixed trend of rains in the mountainous regions of KPK Dearth of climate change studies in Pakistan Lack of climate stations weather stations in KPK 500 in Switzerland (less than half of the area of KP) Socio-cultural aspects? (Bhutiyani et al., 2007) (Islam et al. 2009) (Chaudhry et al., 2009).

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4 Climate change and agriculture South Asia 3.3% of world area; feeding 1/5 th of the world population Subsistence agriculture in mountainous regions Increasing winter temperature better crop production? More growing degree days (Hussain & Mudasser, 2007) more yield in Humid zones (>1500 m asl) Negative trend in foot-hills

5 Trends in wheat yield with temperature (Sultana et al., 2007)

6 Research questions What are the patterns and characteristics of climate change in the study area? Do farmers already realize changes in climate? Are there changes in agricultural practices that can be related to climate change? How local livelihood strategies are changing over time and what are the coping strategies of farmers in the event of climate extremes and related food insecurity?

7 Methodology M.Sc. And M.Phil. Studies (Agri. Univ. Faisalabad; NCCR North-South SDPI) Umair Safdar (2013); Martin Kienzler (2012) Kaghan valley Trend analysis; time series Qualitative research semi structured interviews; life histories (elderly people) Kaghan, batakundi, Lari, Kawai, paras and Bella Balseri Quantitative survey 2 UCs (six villages; 120 respondents)

8 (Kienzler, 2012)

9 (Kienzler, 2012)

10 (Source: PMD, 2012) Kaghan Valley -- Annual Mean Temp.

11 Annual mean precipitation averaged over Kaghan Valley (Source: PMD, 2012)

12 Semi-structured interviews ++ strong increase + slight increase - Slight reduction -- strong reduction 0 no trend

13 % of respondents Awareness about CC Majority (85%) had already felt long-term changes in climate. But very few heard about it from external sources Radio T.V. Newspaper NGO,s Govt. Fellow Never Heard Farmers %

14 Coping strategies Climate Change Coping strategy Yes No F % F % Use drought resistant varieties Change in cropping pattern (single to multiple crops) Forest conservation Planting of new trees Migration Access to weather forecast Increased land area Food storage Inducting new land for cultivation (Safdar, 2013)

15 Coping strategies Food Shortage Coping Strategy Never Sometime s Mostly F % F % F % Rely on less expensive and less preferred food Borrowed food/helped by relatives Consumed seed stock held for next season Reduced No. of meals /day Reduced expenditure on health and education Spent savings Borrowed money Sold animals Sold land

16 Excerpts from Life Stories Changing livelihood strategies: Crops and livestock were the main sources of livelihood for my father and my family in the past times. Rains & temperature were helpful. I also practiced farming when I was 10 years old. Rains were abundant.... But now I have to work as driver on daily wage (62 years old driver) I was doing farming since childhood but as the time passed production started decreasing irregular rains and higher temp..... Now daily wage labour is my main activity (58 years old labourer) Changing food habits:.. We used to eat maize as staple food in my childhood & we were self sufficient but now wheat is major food... I had to work in Karachi to feed my family (83 years old man).. Many farmers are shifting towards the cultivation of (off season) vegetable, but no advisory/extension services.

17 Conclusions during the autumn and winter months a strong increase of temperatures within northwest Pakistan occurs. The increase is strongest in the high-mountain areas (>1500 m asl). Most farmers have realized the changes in climate and they are changing farming practices Increase in yield (technological advancement, new varieties, fertilizers) Least Changes in cropping pattern; No technical support Migration

18 Thanks