Looking beyond borders

Transcription

1 Looking beyond borders Opportunities for cooperation Northern Netherlands and Northern Germany Bert Woltheus, Sectormanager Industrie ING March 18, 2016

2 Content The State of the Economy In the Netherlands In the Northern Netherlands In Northern Germany Opportunities for: Exports to (Northern) Germany Exports to the (Northern) Netherlands 2

3 GDP growth (Gross domestic product, % year-on-year) E 2017E Eurozone Netherlands Germany France Belgium 3

4 2016: above average growth in the Netherlands and Germany Economy Eurozone is growing: +1,2% Economy of the Netherlands is growing: +2,3% The growth of our Top 4 export partners is: +2,1% +1,6% +1,4% +1,3% >>> There are great trading opportunities for the numbers 1 and 3, so while we re here let s match! 4

5 GDP per capita in the Netherlands higher, but growing fast in Germany (index, 2008 = 100) Nederland Duitsland 5

6 Exports less important growth factor in 2015 and 2016, but comeback expected in 2017 Dutch economy growth in 2016 more heavily based on consumption and private investments 4 compared to (lower growth) in Germany (contribution to GDP growth, in % points) forecast -1 forecast Priv,. cons. Total inv. Gov. expenditure Priv,. cons. Total inv. Gov. expenditure Exports (netto) Change in stocks Exports (netto) Change in stocks 6

7 Weak euro good for both Dutch and German exports EUR/USD still around lowest point since 2003 (in USD per 1 euro en trade weighted euro as index, 2010=100) Euro dollar exchange rate (left axis) Euro compared to basket of currencies of our most important export partners (right axis) 7

8 The Netherlands: differences in Northern sector structure, but overall weak presence of the fast growing sectors Groningen Friesland Drenthe Strong Presence Not the fast growing sectors in 2016 Weak Presence While these are the growing sectors! 8

9 Northern provinces at the bottom of the list of highest export values Exports 2014 per capita (excluding gas and oil and re-exports) 10 e Groningen 11 e Friesland 9 e Drenthe Total exports including gas and oil (excluding reexports) 10,3 billion 4,1 billion 3,1 billion Export categories 1.Gas and oil 6,9 bln 1.Agrifood 1,4 bln 1.Chemicals 0,6 bln 2.Chemicals 0,9 bln 2.Machines 0,4 bln 2.Manufactures 0,5 bln 3.Manufactures 0,9 bln 3.Manufactures 0,3 bln 3.Machines 0,4 bln 9

10 Germany: differences in Northern sector structure Niedersachsen Bremen Schleswig-Holstein Hamburg Nordrhein-Westfalen Strong Presence Weak Presence 10

11 Northern provinces of Germany at the top of the list of highest export values per capita Exports 2015 per capita 7 e Niedersachsen 2 e Bremen 11 e Schleswig- Holstein 1 e Hamburg 3 e Nordrhein- Westfalen Total exports 83 bln 18 bln 20 bln 57 bln 181 bln Export categories 28,5 bln 7,7 bln 3,3 bln 3,5 bln 29,3 bln 10,0 bln 3,6 bln 3,0 bln 3,3 bln 28,3 bln 9,4 bln 1,7 bln 2,4 bln 3,0 bln 17,4 bln 11

12 Conclusion 1: and Friesland Drenthe more directed on Germany than Groningen 1 e Groningen 12 e Friesland 4 e Drenthe Share of exports (including gas and oil) to Germany 41% 4,1 billion 13% 474 million 26% 720 million 9 e Groningen 4 e Friesland 2 e Drenthe Share of imports from Germany 13% 872 million 27% 702 million 30% 645 million Especially entrepreneurs from Friesland should be looking to German markets Entrepreneurs from (Northern) Germany should be directing especially on Groningen 12

13 Conclusion 2: Nordrhein-Westfalen and Niedersachsen more directed on The Netherlands than Hamburg, Bremen and Schleswig-Holstein 2 e Niedersachsen 15 e Bremen 6 e Schleswig Holstein 11 e Hamburg 2 e Nordrhein- Westfalen Share of exports to The Netherlands 9% 7,8 billion 3% 0,6 billion 6% 1,3 billion 4% 2,3 billion 10% 18,3 billion 2 e Niedersachsen 15 e Bremen 10 e Schleswig Holstein 12 e Hamburg 1 e Nordrhein- Westfalen Share of imports from The Netherlands 10% 7,8 billion 5% 0,7 billion 6% 1,1 billion 5% 3,7 billion 18% 37,1 billion Especially entrepreneurs from Bremen and Hamburg, but also those from Schleswig- Holstein should focus more on The Netherlands Entrepreneurs from the (Northern) Netherlands should focus more on Bremen, Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein 13

14 Review of the shares of Dutch export partners Dutch import partners 17% #1 Germany 17% China 10% Belgium 9% USA 9% UK 6% France 4% Russia 4% Norway 3% Italy 2% Japan 2% 14

15 Which sector? Manufacturing! Much more present in Germany than in The Netherlands 15

16 Which part of Germany? Exports now primarily to Nordrhein-Westfalen Hamburg is the second largest city of Germany and counts the most rich people in Germany Disposable income per capita is 8% higher than the German average, the same as in Baden- Württemberg and slightly lower than in Bayern Disposable income per capita in Schleswig-Holstein is 2% higher than in Nordrhein-Westfalen, in Niedersachsen 4% lower 16

17 Which part of Germany? These are the fastest growing regions Growth (in %) and extent (in billion) 1.Bayern 9, Baden-Württemberg 7, Sachsen 6, Schleswig-Holstein 6, Niedersachsen 6, Berlin 5, Thüringen 5, Bremen 5, Rheinland-Pfalz 4, Hessen 3, Nordrhein-Westfalen 3, Saarland 3, Hamburg 2, Brandenburg 2, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 1, Sachsen-Anhalt 0,4 56 Germany 5,

18 What s the opinion of German entrepreneurs? Agreed delivery deadlines are not always met. They are more inclined to think out-of-the-box. That is not so common in Germany. For Germans, reliability means total reliability. Know-how is outstanding. Many potential suppliers in Germany actively approach us, we hear little from the Netherlands. The flexibility of the Dutch is a good thing when it comes to technological aspects or responding to unexpected peaks in demand, but it is not so good when they delivering 90% and say the rest will arrive next week. 18

19 Advise to the Dutch: 19

20 20 Danke schön und viel Erfolg!