The Effect of Network Topology on the Spread of Epidemics

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3 3 Proof: Consider the continuous time Markov process Î, with values in Æ Î, and transition rates at rate È µ at rate Standard coupling arguments yield Øµ Ø Øµ for all Ø ¼ when starting from the same initial conditions; here, Ø denotes that stochastically dominates. This implies that È Moreover, it holds that: È Øµ ¼µ È Øµ ¼µ Øµ ¼µ Øµµ However, the transition rates for process are such that Øµµ Áµ Øµµ Ø where Á denotes the identity matrix. Hence, Øµµ ÜÔ ØÅ µ ¼µ where Å Á. Note that ÜÔ ØÅ µ is a symmetric matrix (since is) with spectral radius µ µø. Hence, Øµµ µ µø ¼µµ ÔÈ where Øµµ Øµµ. But, by the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality, Î Øµµ Øµ where denotes the vector of ones, so Ô. Thus, we obtain: È Øµ ¼µ Øµµ Ô µ µø Ú ÙÙØ ¼µ Equation (2) follows, upon replacing ¼µ by ¼µ; note that ¼µ ¼µ since ¼µ takes values in ¼. Now, write µ ¼ È ØµØ È Øµ ¼µØ ¼ Replacing È Øµ ¼µ by the trivial upper bound on ¼ ÐÓ µ µµ, and by the upper bound ÜÔ µ µøµ on the interval ÐÓ µ µµ µ, in this expression yields the claimed result (3). In other words, under condition (1), the probability that ÐÓ µ the epidemic hasn t died out by time µ Ø decays exponentially in Ø. However, Condition (1) may not be necessary for ensuring exponentially fast death of epidemics, with small characteristic time before extinction. We will observe this in the case of a star-shaped network in Section V-A. IV. SUFFICIENT CONDITION FOR LASTING INFECTION We now provide a condition under which an epidemic will survive for a long time. To this end, we introduce the so-called generalized isoperimetric constant of the graph, defined as: Ñµ ËËÑ Ë Ëµ Ë ¼ Ñ (4) In the above, Ë Ëµ denotes the number of edges connecting the set of vertices Ë to the complementary set, Ë. When Ñ, this corresponds to the standard isoperimetric constant µ. Henceforth we omit the reference to. Define now a Markov process on ¼Ñ, with transition rate: Þ Þ at rate Ñµ Þ Þ Þ at rate Þ Now, standard coupling arguments yield Øµ Ø È Î Øµ due to the fact that (i) Øµ can never exceed Ñ, (ii) their downward transition rates are identical, and (iii) the upwards transition rate for Øµ is Ñµ Þ, that for È Î Øµ is Ë Ëµ where Ë Î Øµ, and we have Ë Ëµ ÑµÞ whenever Ë Þ Ñ. This is useful for establishing the following result. Theorem 4.1: Assume that the following inequality holds: Ö (5) Ñµ È Then for any initial condition ¼µ with ¼µ ¼, it holds that, È Ö Ñ Ñ Ö Ç Ö Ñ µµ (6) Proof: First consider the embedded discrete time Markov chain associated with process, which tracks the successive states visited by. We denote it by Ø, where now Ø Æ. Its transition matrix has as nonnegative terms: Ô µ Ñµ Ô µ Ô ¼ ¼µ Ô Ñ Ñ µ Ñµ Ñµ Ñ Ñ

4 4 Let Õ µ denote the probability that, starting from state, the Markov chain will enter state Ñ before entering state 0. The evaluation of Õ µ is a standard problem, known as the gambler s ruin problem. It has the following solution: Õ µ Ö Ñ ÖÑ where Ö Ñµµ. Let Ì denote the number of steps before Ø is absorbed at 0. The solution ot the gambler s ruin problem implies that: È Ì Øµ Ö Ö Ñ Ö Ñ Ö Ñ Ø (7) Indeed, Ì is going to be larger than Ø if pays at least Ø distinct visits to Ñ before being absorbed. The probability of the first visit taking place before absorption is the first term in the above expression; after a visit to Ñ, the probability of having a subsequent visit prior to absorption is given by Ö Ñ µ Ö Ñ µ as can be seen by considering what happens in the step just after the visit to Ñ, where the process is necessarily in state Ñ. The formula above follows. Taking Ø Ö Ñ in expression (7), the right-hand side is then at least Öµ Ç Ö Ñ µµ. Conditioned on the event that there are indeed Ø visits to Ñ before absorption at zero, the time before absorption is then larger than the sum of Ø exponentially distributed random variables with parameter Ñ, describing the sojourn times in state Ñ. When the number of such visits is large, the total sojourn time is then at least Ø Ñµ, with a probability where the error is exponentially small in Ø, and the result (6) follows. We have the following corollary. Corollary 4.1: Consider a sequence of graphs indexed by. Suppose there is an ¼ and a sequence Ñ µ such that Ö uniformly in, for Ö defined as in (5). Then ÐÓ µ Å µ. Proof: We have È ÜµÜ ¼ Ö Ñ Ñµ ¼ È ÜµÜ Ö Ñ Ö Ç Ö Ñ µµ Ñ Upon taking logarithms, this yields ÐÓ µ µ Ç ÐÓ µµ which establishes the corollary. We now use Theorem 4.1 to provide sufficient conditions for exponentially long survival of the epidemics stated in terms of the spectral structure of the underlying graph. This will allow comparison with the former sufficient condition for fast extinction, (1). The Laplacian matrix Ä of the graph is by definition, where is the diagonal matrix with as entries the degrees of the vertices in, and is the adjacency matrix of. We shall denote the eigenvalues of Ä by Äµ Äµ Äµ. We now have: Corollary 4.2: Let Ö ¼ (8) Äµ Then (6) is still valid, with Ö replaced by Ö ¼ and Ñ. The proof follows from Corollary 3.8 in [14], which states that for any graph, the following inequality holds: µ Äµ Corollary 4.3: Assume that the graph is regular, i.e. all its vertices have the same degree, say. Denote by µ µ the eigenvalues of its adjacency matrix. Then a sufficient condition for exponentially long survival of the epidemics is that: µ µ µ (9) Indeed, Condition (9) coincides with (8) in the case of a -regular graph. Ignoring the factor 2 in (9), this condition amounts to comparing the ratio not to µ, as is done in Condition (1), but rather to the gap between the two largest eigenvalues of, namely µ. V. SOME EXAMPLES In this section we apply the previous results to several important classes of topologies: star-shaped networks, hypercubes, cliques, Erdős-Rényi random graphs, and random power law graphs. A. Star-shaped networks The star-shaped network is of interest for several reasons. First, it illustrates that neither of the preceding conditions are sufficient. We are able to get much tighter conditions because the star is simple enough to study exhaustively. Second, the spreading behavior of a large class of power law graphs is determined by the spreading behavior of stars embedded within them, as we will observe in Section V-E. Consider a star-shaped network, with nodes, where the only edges are ¼µ,. Let us first

5 5 identify the spectral radius of the corresponding matrix. An eigenvector Ü associated with eigenvalue must satisfy Ü ¼ Ü Ü Ü ¼ The only solutions for are ¼ and Ô Ô, and thus µ. The results from the previous two sections tell us that 1) epidemics die out quickly provided that Ô, and 2) epidemics die out slowly provided that. These results are clearly quite loose. In this section we derive tighter thresholds for fast and slow die out. We describe the state of the epidemic on a star-shaped network by a vector ØµÆ Øµµ of length two. Here Øµ is the indicator that the hub is infected, and Æ Øµ is the number of infected leaves, at time Ø. The pairwise infection rate is, while each infected node recovers at rate. Thus, the process ØµÆ Øµµ is Markovian, with transition rates ¼µ µ rate µ ¼µ rate ¼µ ¼ µ rate µ µ rate µ µ rate µ all other transition rates equal zero. Standard coupling arguments establish ØµÆ Øµµ to be stochastically nondecreasing in ¼µÆ ¼µµ. During each interval over which the state of the hub is fixed at, the leaves evolve as independent Markov chains on ¼ with transition rate from ¼ to, and from to ¼. Denote the transition rate matrix by É. A straightforward calculation yields that the transition probability matrix is È Øµ É Ø µø µø µ µø µø (10) Define the process Æ Øµ to be the second component of the Markov process ØµÆ Øµµ, conditioned on µ for all ¼ µ. It is easy to see by a coupling argument that, for any Ø ¼, Æ Øµ Æ Øµ provided Æ ¼µ Æ ¼µ; for random variables,, we write to mean that is stochastically dominated by. But conditioning on µ ensures that the transition probabilities for each leaf are given by (10). Hence, if we take Æ ¼µ, then Æ Øµ is binomial with parameters and µø µ µ. Since the latter is a decreasing function of Ø, we also note that Æ µ stochastically dominates Æ Øµ for any Ø. In fact, if Ì is a random time which is independent of the Æ µ process, then Æ µ stochastically dominates Æ Ì µ. The following theorem shows that (1) is not sufficient for fast die out. Theorem 5.1: Suppose Ô for a fixed ¼. Then, Ç ÐÓ µ when either ¼µ and/or Æ ¼µ. Proof: As ØµÆ Øµµ is nondecreasing in the size of the initial population of infectives, it suffices to consider the initial state µ. Fix ¼, and take Ø µø so that µ. Define Ó ÐÓ µ Ì µ ¼ ÐÓ µ, (11) to be the first time after Ø that the central hub becomes uninfected in the original Markov process ØµÆ Øµµ. By the arguments above, Æ Ì µ is stochastically dominated by Æ Øµ. Note that Ì Ø is stochastically dominated by the time for the hub to become uninfected (assuming that it is infected at time Ø), which is an exponentially distributed random variable with mean, denoted Í. Since Ô,wehave Ì ÐÓ ÐÓ µ Í Ì ÐÓ ÐÓ µ (12) Next, observe that, conditioned on Æ Ì µ, the probability that the infection dies out before the hub becomes infected again is µ. This is because each leaf becomes uninfected before infecting the hub with probability µ, and the infection attempts of different leaves are independent. Let Ë Ø Ì Øµ, with the convention that Ë if the infection dies out before the centre is re-infected. Then, È Ë µ ÐÓ µ Æ Ìµ Æ Øµ Recall that Ø and that Æ Øµ is binomial with parameters and µ. Hence, using the generating function for the binomial, we have µ µ È Ë µ µ µ Substituting Ô, we have for all sufficiently large, that Õ È Ë µ ÜÔ µ µ (13) Next, we bound the time by which either the hub becomes re-infected or the infection dies out. Associate with each leaf an exponential random variable of unit mean,, denoting the time at which this node would become uninfected if it was initially infected. Define

6 6 Ë Ì ÑÜ. Then, either the infection has died out before Ë, which happens with probability at least Õ (as given by (13)), or the hub was re-infected at some time in Ì Ë µ. On the latter event, the evolution of the process after Ë can be stochastically dominated by the evolution which starts at Ë in the state µ. But this is the state we considered at time ¼, soë is a regeneration time for the dominating process. We have thus shown that the time to extinction is stochastically dominated by the sum of Î independent copies of Ë, where Î is geometric with mean ÕµÕ. Now consider Ë Ì ÑÜ.Wehave Ù È ÑÜ ÐÓ Ù Ù In other words, Ë Ì ÐÓ is stochastically dominated by an exponential random variable with mean, denoted Í. We now have from (12) that Ë ÐÓ ÐÓ µ Í Í Ë ÐÓ ÐÓ µ (14) where Í and Í are independent ÜÔ µ random variables defined on the same probability space as Ë. Finally, the time to extinction,, satisfies Î Ë È Î µ Õ Õµ ¼ (15) where Ë are iid and independent of Î. Here Õ is given by (13), and is bounded below by a constant that doesn t depend on. It is now immediate from (14) and (15) that Ç ÐÓ µ. This completes the proof of the theorem. Next, suppose «, for some «¼, and let Ã µ Ã ¼µ µ µ. Define be the set of states in which Ã or more leaves are infected. We shall show that, starting from any state in, the Markov chain ØµÆ Øµµ returns to the set before hitting ¼ ¼µ with high probability. Theorem 5.2: Suppose «, for some «¼ µ and is defined as above. Then: 1) There is a constant ¼ such that, for all sufficiently large and all Ü, È Ü ØµÆ Øµµ hits ¼ ¼µ before returning to µ ÜÔ «µ Here, È Ü denotes probabilities for the Markov chain ØµÆ Øµµ, conditioned on ¼µÆ ¼µµ Ü. 2) For all Ü ¼ ¼µ, ÐÓ Ü Å «µ. The proofs of 1) and 2) rely on the following three lemmas, whose proofs can be found in the Appendix. The first lemma states that, for the Markov chain started in ¼µ, with high probability the hub becomes infected before the number of infected leaves decreases by Ô or more. Lemma 5.1: Suppose ¼µÆ ¼µµ ¼µ, with Ô. Let Ø ¼ Øµ. Then, È Æ µ Ô µ ÜÔ «Recall that Ã. Fix Ãand consider the µ Markov chain ØµÆ Øµµ started in the state µ. The following lemma states that, with high probability, Ô either Øµ ¼or Æ Øµ Ã before Æ Øµ. Note that, if Æ Øµ Ã, then ØµÆ Øµµ. Lemma 5.2: Suppose ¼µÆ ¼µµ µ, with Ã. Let Ø ¼ ØµÆ Øµµ or Øµ ¼. Then, È Æ Øµ Ô for some Ø ¼ µ Ô The last lemma states that the Markov chain ØµÆ Øµµ, starting in state µ for any, has probability at least one third of hitting the set before the hub becomes uninfected. Lemma 5.3: Suppose ¼µÆ ¼µµ µ, with Ã. Let Ø ¼ Øµ ¼. Then, È µæ µµ µ for all sufficiently large. Proof of Theorem 5.2: Let Ü be an arbitrary state in the set. Define to be the return time to the set ; ¼if the first transition out of state Ü takes the chain to another state in. We want to show that È µ ÜÔ «µ. We recursively define the times Ì and Ë as follows: Ì ¼ Ø ¼ Øµ ¼, which could possibly be zero; for, Ë Ø Ì Øµ and Ì Ø Ë Øµ ¼. Note that the state ¼ ¼µ is absorbing. Hence, if Æ Ì µ¼for some, then we define Ë and Ì to be for all. Now, by Lemmas 5.1 and 5.2, we have Ô È Æ Ì ¼ µ µ ÜÔ Ô ÐÓ µ

7 7 and, for all, È Æ Ë µ Ô µ Æ Ì µ µ «ÜÔ È Æ Ì µ Ô µ µ Æ Ë µ µ Ô ÜÔ ÐÓ µ µ Ô µ Ô Now, «,so Ô ««for all µ sufficiently large. Thus, we obtain by the union bound that «È Ì «µ Note that, on this event, Ì «. Moreover, on each interval Ë Ì, «, there is probability at least of hitting the set, by Lemma 5.3. Hence, «È Ì «Ì «µ ÐÓ µ ÜÔ «Combining this with (16), we get È µ È Ì «µ «ÜÔ (16) È Ì «µ È Ì «µ È Ì «µ È Ì «µ ««ÜÔ ÐÓ µ ÜÔ «Taking ÐÓ µ for instance, we see that the first claim of the theorem is satisfied. To establish the second claim, observe that the Markov chain started in any state of the form ¼µ with ¼ dominates the chain started in the state ¼ µ. Likewise, the chain started in µ dominates that started in ¼µ. Thus, we need only consider the initial conditions ¼ µ and ¼µ. Now, if the chain is started in ¼ µ, it hits µ before ¼ ¼µ with probability «, and subsequently dominates the chain started in ¼µ. Moreover, by Lemma 5.3, the chain started in ¼µ hits the set before hitting ¼ ¼µ, with probability at least a third. Consequently, È Ü µ «for all Ü ¼ ¼µ. Next, starting from any state Ý,wehave shown that È Ý µ ÜÔ «µ. Consequently, the number of returns to before hitting ¼ ¼µ stochastically dominates a geometric random variable with mean ÜÔ «µ. The time for each return to dominates the time for a single transition from state Ý; for all Ý, this time dominates an exponential random variable with mean. Consequently, Ñ Ý Ý «Ñ Ü Ü ¼¼µ ««¼ «for large enough and suitably chosen ¼ ¼; ¼ will suffice. Thus ÐÓ Ü Å «µ. This completes the proof of the theorem. Remark 5.1: It is interesting to note that the system behavior is greatly affected by the initial set of infected hosts in the following way. If ¼µ ¼ and Æ ¼µ Ó «µ, then the probability that the hub becomes infected goes to zero as. In particular, if Ì µ, then È Ì µ Æ ¼µ «for ¼ and large. Furthermore, these epidemics are of short duration, Ç ÐÓ µ. However, even though nearly all epidemics die out (with high probability), the rare occasions that they do not yield epidemics of such long durations that the average epidemic length is exponential in. On the other hand, if either ¼µ or Æ ¼µ Å «µ, then a non-zero fraction of the epidemics do not die out quickly, even as. B. Hypercubes The hypercube is of interest because of the widespread and growing interest in distributed hash tables and applications, such as file sharing [17], being built on top of them. Already worms and viruses have appeared in some applications, [11]. As many DHT structures are hypercubic in nature, it is important to understand the spreading behavior of such worms on a hypercube. Here we represent a hypercube as a graph with vertex set ¼ for some Æ, and where the edge Ú Ûµ is present if and only if the Hamming distance À Ú Ûµ equals 1. As a hypercube is a regular graph, its spectral radius is µ ÐÓ. Hence, from Section III we know that the epidemic dies out provided that ÐÓ. We now determine conditions for the epidemic to die out slowly. In particular, we establish that the epidemic dies out slowly provided any ¼. Thus, unlike the star topology, there is essentially no gap for the hypercube. We first establish the following result. µ ÐÓ, for

8 8 Theorem 5.3: Let Ñ, for some ¼. Assume that the following inequality holds: Ö (17) µ Assume further that Ö Ñ goes to zero as. Then the time to extinction satisfies identity (6), with our current choices for Ö and Ñ. The result follows by a direct application of Theorem 4.1. In order to prove the theorem, we need the following result established by Harper [10] (see also [1] for background and recent extensions). Lemma 5.4: (Harper [10]) Let Ë be a set of Ñ vertices of the hypercube ¼. Then the edge-boundary size Ë Ëµ is larger than or equal to Ë Ë µ, where Ë denotes the set of the Ñ smallest vertices according to lexicographic order. Proof: (of Theorem 5.3) Let Ñ, for some. Let us first establish the following inequality: Ñµ (18) Indeed, in view of the lemma it is the case that the set Ë achieving the minimum isoperimetric ratio Ñµ consists of all points ¼ Ü, where Ü spans the whole set ¼, plus some points of the type ¼ Ü, for some. It turns out that any point Ý Þ È, where Ý Ô Ô and ¼ Þ belongs to Ë, contributes exactly one edge to Ë Ë µ. Hence the lower bound Ë Ë µ µë from which (18) directly follows. The result follows by applying Theorem 4.1. Now reverting to the notation and Ñ, condition (17) can be expressed as ÐÓ ÐÓ Ñ Take Ñ for some such that ¼, we obtain µðó C. Complete graph The complete graph also plays a prominent role in networks. For example, the BGP routers belonging to the top level autonomous systems of the Internet form a completely connected component. In addition, large ISPs often organize their internal BGP (ibgp) routers into a set of route reflectors that are completely connected. Because of the importance of BGP to the Internet, it is important to understand what effect BGP router failures can have on each other. At a very high level, the behavior of routers failing and coming up can be modeled as the spread of an epidemic within a complete graph, [7]. Consider a complete graph with vertices, namely the graph where an edge is present between each pair of nodes. The adjacency matrix of this graph is Ì Á, where denotes the column vector of ones, and Ì is its transpose. has the spectral radius µ. The isoperimetric constant Ñµ is easily shown to be Ñ. Application of Theorem 3.1 and Corollary 4.1 tell us that epidemics die out quickly when µ and slowly when Ñµ, when Ñ for some ¼. Thus is essentially the correct threshold and, as in the case of the hypercube, there is no gap. D. Erdős-Rényi random graphs The Erdős-Rényi graph Ôµ with parameters and Ô is defined as a random graph on nodes, where the edge between each pair of nodes is present with probability Ô, independent of all other edges. The spreading behavior of an epidemic on an Erdős-Rényi graph is of interest for a number of reasons. First, it is a graph that has received considerable attention in the past [3]. Second, it is an important component of the class of power law random graphs that model the Internet AS graph. Thus if we are to understand the robustness of the Internet AS-level graph, we need to characterize the robustness of the Erdős-Rényi graph. We shall consider a sequence of such graphs indexed by. Denote by the corresponding average degree, i.e. µô. Note that Ô and depend on, but this is suppressed in the notation. We say that a property holds with high probability if its probability goes to 1 as. We consider the regime ÐÓ µ, i.e., ÐÓ µ ¼ as. In this case, it is known that the graphs are connected with high probability. Moreover, by the Perron-Frobenius theorem, the spectral radius µ lies between the smallest and largest node degree. Since the node degrees are binomial, Ô, it is easy to see using the Chernoff bound that µ Ó µµô Ó µµ, with high probability. Theorem 5.4: Let Ñ be such that Ñ «as, for a fixed «¼ µ. Assume further that ÐÓ µ. Then it holds that, with high probability, Ñµ Ó µµ «µ (19) Proof: Fix some ¼ «µ. By the union bound, È Ñµ µ Ñ ËË È Ë Ëµ

9 9 Note that Ë Ëµ has a binomial distribution with parameters µ and Ô. Denote by µô a generic Binomial random variable with this distribution. We thus have È Ñµ µ Ñ È µô Since «and Ñ Ó µµ«, we have for large enough that µô for all Ñ and that «µ. We now apply the following Chernoff bound, È Æµ µµ µæ (20) valid for any Binomial random variable, [13, Theorem 4.2], to µô in the above expression. Taking Æ «, this yields Ñ È Ñµ µ µô (21) where bound È Ñµ µ «¼. We thus have the upper Ñ µô Ñ µô ÐÓ µ where we have also used the upper bound to obtain the first inequality. By assumption, ÐÓ µ µô, and is a positive constant that doesn t depend on. Thus, for any constant Ã ¼, it holds that, for large enough, È Ñµ µ Ñ Ã ÜÔ Ã This suffices to conclude that for any «, with high probability Ñµ. In order to obtain an inequality in the opposite direction, choose any set Ë of cardinality Ñ. Then one certainly has Ë Ëµ Ñµ Ñ Let «µ be fixed. One then has that È Ñµ µ È Ñ ÑµÔ Ñ µôµ It is readily seen using a Chernoff bound that the righthand side goes to zero as. This concludes the proof of the theorem. Theorem 5.5: Consider Erdős-Rényi random graphs Ôµ with ÐÓ µ Ô. The following claims hold with high probability: an epidemic on Ôµ dies out quickly, Ç ÐÓ µ, provided Ùµ for ¼ Ù. On the other hand, the epidemic dies out slowly, ÐÓ Å µ provided that Úµ for Ú¼. Proof: The theorem follows from Theorem 3.1 and Corollary 4.1, the expression µ Ó µµ for the spectral radius, and Theorem 5.4. Notice that there is very little gap between the two thresholds as Ù and Ú can be chosen to be arbitrarily close to zero. E. Power law graphs There has been considerable interest in power law graphs since it was first noticed that the Internet ASlevel graph exhibits a power law degree distribution, [9]. Briefly a power law graph is one where the number of nodes with degree is proportional to for some. For the mean degree to be finite, we need and this is the range we shall consider. The Internet ASlevel graph is characterized by In this section we consider a class of random power law graphs first introduced in [6]. Let Û Û Û denote the expected degrees of the nodes in the graph. An edge È is assigned to a pair of vertices with probability Û Û Û. Let denote the average degree and Ñ the maximum degree. If Û ¼ µ ( ) where, ¼ µ Ñ µ then the number of nodes with degree is proportional to. Theorem 4 from [6] states under mild conditions that, with high probability, the spectral radius of the graph is µ Ô Ó µµ Ñ µ µñ (22) Ó µµ µ µ µ We have the following result on the fast/slow die out of epidemics on the above class of power law graphs. Here we will take Ñ to be the following increasing function of, Ñ where ¼ Theorem 5.6: 1) For,. (a) the infection dies out quickly, Ç ÐÓ µ, provided that Ùµ Ô Ñ for some Ù¼, (b) the infection dies out slowly, ÐÓ Å «µ, provided that Ñ «for some «¼ µ. 2) For µ,

10 10 (a) the infection dies out quickly, Ç ÐÓ µ, provided that Ùµ where µ µñ µ µ µ for some ¼ Ù, (b) the infection dies out slowly, ÐÓ Å µ µ provided that (i) Ùµ where µ µ µ µ µñ µ for some Ù¼, and (ii) the following condition holds: ÐÓ ¼ µ (23) Proof: The first part of each of the claims follows from Theorem 3.1 and (22). Consider claim 1.b. We can bound the time to die out of an epidemic that starts in either the maximum degree node or one of its neighbors by the time to die out on a star of size Ñ.Now consider the case that some other randomly chosen node is initially infected. Theorem 4 in [5] states that, with high probability, the diameter of the power law graph is ÐÓ µ when. Hence the probability that an epidemic starting from a randomly infected node spreads to either the maximum degree node or its immediate neighbors is ÐÓ µ for some ¼ independent of. This combined with arguments used to establish Theorem 5.2 establishes the claim. We focus on claim 2.b. We shall now identify a subgraph of the original power-law random graph that is an Erdős-Rényi random graph. Consider the first Æ nodes, where Æ is to be chosen, with respective weights Û ¼ Û ¼ Æ. Then the probability of an edge being present between any two of these nodes is at least as large as Ô Æ Û ¼ Æ µ Æ ¼ µ µ µ Æ ¼ The original graph thus contains an Erdős-Rényi graph with parameters Æ and Ô Æ. Survival of the epidemic on the original graph will be at least as long as on the Erdős-Rényi subgraph provided that at least one node within the Erdős-Rényi component is initially infected. The average degree of the subgraph is then given by Æ µô Æ Æ µ Æ ¼ Let us now take Æ ¼, for some positive. The average degree of the induced Erdős-Rényi graph is then equivalent to Æ µô Æ µ µ µ µ ¼ Ñ µ µ µ µ Simple calculus shows that this is maximized by setting µ µ, for which choice we arrive at Æ µô Æ µ µ µ µ µñ µ The die out result is a direct application of Theorem 5.4 and Corollary 4.1, which is applicable under the condition (23). If the initially infected nodes are not within the Erdős-Rényi subgraph, then because the diameter of the power law graph is ÐÓ µ with high probability, the probability that the epidemic dies out before infecting a node within the Erdős-Rényi component is ÐÓ µ for some ¼ independent of. This combined with arguments used to establish Theorem 5.2 establishes the claim. Remark. Note that in the case of µ, the thresholds for fast and slow recovery are almost the same, since in the statement of Theorem 5.6 is smaller than µ by a factor of µ Put together, our results determine the outcome of the epidemics for such graphs in the ranges µ µ (fast extinction) and µ µ (long survival). Our techniques do not cover the range in between at the present time. VI. SUMMARY We have presented a preliminary investigation of how topology affects the spread of an epidemic, motivated by networking phenomena such as worms and viruses, cascading failures, and dissemination of information. We have developed sufficient conditions under which epidemics either die out quickly (logarithmically in the size of the network) or slowly (exponentially in the size of the network). These conditions are tight for several network topologies, such as hypercubes, complete

11 11 graphs, and Erdős-Rényi random graphs. They are not tight for topologies such as stars and power law graphs. We provided a supplementary analysis of the star that significantly tightened the condition for slow die out so that it is close to that for fast die out. In the case of a power law graph, we presented tight conditions by drawing on results for the star and Erdős-Rényi random graph. In all cases, the condition for fast die out appears to be tight. There are several interesting directions to pursue this. As we remarked within the paper, the behavior of the epidemic in the case of the star and power law graph is sensitive to the initial set of infected nodes. It would be useful to understand this relationship better. In addition, as pointed out in [12], there is a notion of a metastable set of nodes that are infected given that one is infected in the regime of slow die out. They present an approximate analysis of the distribution of the number of nodes that belong to this set. It would be useful to pursue this in a more rigorous manner and for other classes of network topologies. APPENDIX PROOF OF LEMMAS 5.1, 5.2, 5.3 Proof of Lemma 5.1: When the Markov chain is in state ¼µ, the probability that it hits ¼ µ before µ is µ µ; no other transitions are possible from ¼µ. Hence, by the Markov property, Ô È Æ µ µ È ¼µ hit ¼ µ before µ µ Ô Ô Using the inequality ÐÓ Ü Ü, we obtain Ô Ô «È Æ µ µ ÜÔ µ ÜÔ (24) as claimed. Proof of Lemma 5.2: Observe that, while Øµ, Æ Øµ evolves as a birth-death Markov chain with birth rate Æ Øµµ and death rate Æ Øµ. Now, over the time interval ¼µ, Øµ and Æ Øµ Ã. Hence, over ¼µ, Æ Øµ stochastically dominates the Markov chain Æ Øµ with birth rate Ãµ and death rate Ã, having the same initial condition Æ ¼µ. Hence, it suffices to show that, with probability at least Ô Æ Øµ hits Ã before it hits. Defining Ã Æ Øµ Å Øµ Ãµ Ø ¼Æ Ô Øµ Ã or Æ ¼µ Ô, we observe that Å Øµ is a martingale and that is a stopping time. Define È Æ µ Æ ¼µ Ô µ. By the optional stopping theorem, Å µ Å ¼µ, i.e., Ã Ãµ Now, Ã Ã Æ ¼µ Ô µ Ã Æ ¼µ Ãµ Ã Ãµ,so Ã µ µ µ. Hence, it is immediate from the above that Ã µã Ã Ô Ô (25) Ãµ This establishes the claim of the lemma. Proof of Lemma 5.3: Clearly, the Markov chain started in µ stochastically dominates the chain started in ¼µ, so it suffices to establish the claim of the lemma for ¼. By conditioning on the time that it takes the hub to become uninfected, which is exponentially distributed with unit mean, we get È Æ µ Ãµ ¼ Ø È Æ Øµ ÃÆ ¼µ ¼ µ ¼Ø µø (26) Now, conditional on Æ ¼µ ¼ and µ on ¼Ø, Æ Øµ is binomial with parameters and µø µ µ. Applying the Chernoff bound (20) with Æ µø µ È Æ Øµ µ ÜÔ ÜÔ yields for Ø ÐÓ µø µ µ µø µ «µ Here Ø ÐÓ minimizes the denominator and Ø maximizes the numerator of the exponent in the right hand expression of the first inequality thus yielding the second inequality. È Æ µ Ãµ ÜÔ «µ ÐÓ Ø Ø (27) for all sufficiently large. This establishes the claim of the lemma.

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