Investment Research General Market Conditions 28 November 2013

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1 Investment Research General Market Conditions 28 November 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today Germany releases the first inflation data for November. The annual inflation rate (HICP) is expected to rise slightly to 1.4% (consensus 1.3%) from 1.2% in October. We do not expect to see a further decline in German inflation until the December print, when technical changes to seasonality will push inflation 0.6 percentage points lower. In the euro area money and credit growth will be in focus. M3 growth has slowed a bit in recent months to 1.7% in October. If this trend continues it will be another argument for the ECB to provide more stimulus early next year. On the credit side monthly loan flows for households have increased a bit lately but the underlying growth in credit is still very weak. The EU Commission releases the monthly confidence surveys for business and consumers. We should see a further rise in business confidence, whereas the flash estimate for consumer confidence showed a slight decline. The US markets are closed today due to Thanksgiving. Danmarks Nationalbank is set to publish its monthly securities statistics and foreign portfolio investment data for October and in Sweden retail sales data will be released. For more on Scandi markets see page 2. Selected market news The overall positive sentiment from the European trade carried over to the US session supported by US data releases. US initial jobless claims continued lower last week to 316K and the University of Michigan consumer confidence increased to 75.1 from 72. The S&P 500 ended the session up 0.3% - this is a new all time high. In Asia stock indices are also trading in positive territory this morning with Nikkei up 1.2% and Hang Seng up 0.6% The S&P future has edged higher after the US close. US Treasury yields increased 2bp in the 10Y last night on the back of the data releases. Also core EUR government bond rates edged slightly higher yesterday following comments from ECB s Vice-President Constancio who said, referring to negative deposit rates, that any decision would have to be taken with great caution, certainly, and only in quite extreme situations. Market overview Note: * The itraxx Europe Index shows the spread development for the most liquid investment grade CDS contracts in the euro credit market. **The itraxx Europe Crossover show the spread development of the most liquid non-investment grade CDS contracts in the euro credit market. ***The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index shows the spread development for the most liquid investment grade CDS contracts in the US credit market. Source: Bloomberg Selected readings from Danske Bank Euro area deflation monitor 07:30 1 day +/-,% S&P500 (close) S&P500 fut (chng from close) Nikkei Hang Seng :00 07:30 +/-, bp US 2y gov US 10y gov itraxx Europe (IG) itraxx Xover (Non IG) /-, % EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/GBP EUR/SEK EUR/NOK USD Oil Brent, USD Gold, USD In the periphery, Ireland led the performance together with Portugal yesterday with yield spread tightening again supported by strong Irish housing data that showed an increase in prices of 6.1% y/y in October up from 3.6% last month. In Italy the political era of Berlusconi officially ended yesterday as he was expelled from parliament. The decision which had been expected for some time had no market impact, see also Financial Times. Senior Analyst Anders Møller Lumholtz andjrg@danskebank.dk Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 5 of this report.

2 Scandi markets today We will get news on foreign investors' appetite for Danish assets as Danmarks Nationalbank is set to publish its monthly securities statistics and foreign portfolio investment data for October today. US S&P500 future Swedish October retail sales are expected to print 4.0% y/y, primarily a base effect due to a weak October last year. The warm weather might have softened it a bit, though. The backdrop, however, is quite OK for households with decent real wage growth and rising employment. Riksbank also releases its Stability Report; the previous one suggested Swedish banks should continue to insure that they have sufficient capital and liquidity. EMU developments and Swedish household indebtedness were perceived as the main risks for stability. Fixed Income markets US markets are closed for Thanksgiving, so expect reduced liquidity for the rest of the week. Market attention will today centre around the German inflation reading, euro area confidence indicators, money supply and loan flow data. It will be interesting to see if the latest gradual improvements in the credit supply have continued. Surely the positive market sentiment and improving growth situation are helping, also on the confidence data, but the upcoming Asset Quality Review probably dampens the banks appetite for expanding balance sheets significantly ahead of New Year. In the EUR government bond market Italy will only be tapping EUR2-2.5bn in the Mar- 24 today and not in the 5Y, which tends to be the month-end pattern currently. The Italian linker auction scheduled for earlier this week was also cancelled as the Tesoro is well ahead with this year s planned issuance following the large retail tap earlier this month. Italy has outperformed peers over the past month and at these levels we are considering switching our spread compression trade from 5Y Italy versus Germany to Spain that has been lagging peers. In the periphery, Ireland yesterday led the performance together with Portugal supported by strong Irish housing data that showed an increase of 6.1% y/y in prices in October (up from 3.6% last month). The improvement is mainly driven by the developments in Dublin where prices are up 15.0% y/y Tue Wed Thu Mon Tue Thu US 10y gov yield Tue Wed Thu Mon Tue Wed Global FX EUR/USD (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS) Tue Wed Fri Mon Tue Thu FX markets The Australian dollar got some tailwinds overnight as capital spending unexpectedly rose in Q3. AUD declined more than 6% against USD over the past month as RBA has signalled that intervention in the FX market is an option in order to curb the strength of the Aussie. However, while AUD/USD looks significantly oversold according to our short-term financial models, and while we doubt that the RBA will actually intervene in the near term, risks, in our view, remain skewed to the downside for AUD. Hence, despite a strong buying signal from our model we prefer to remain sidelined in AUD/USD. In the Scandinavian market, Swedish October retail sales are likely to attract some attention today. However, the market s reaction is likely to be minor as we wait for the Q3 GDP report tomorrow. We see risks skewed to the downside for the GDP figures and we would consider to buy EUR/SEK and NOK/SEK on dips ahead of the GDP report tomorrow. Scandi FX EUR/SEK (LHS) EUR/NOK (RHS) Tue Wed Fri Mon Tue November 2013

3 Key figures and events Thursday, November 28, 2013 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous - USD Thanksgiving 7:45 CHF GDP q/q y/y 3rd quarter 0.4% 1.8% 0.5% 2.5% 9:00 ESP GDP, final q/q y/y 3rd quarter 0.1% 0.1% -1.2% 9:00 ESP HICP, preliminary y/y Nov 0.1% % 9:00 DKK Unemployment, s.a. K (%) Oct 5.7% 9:00 DKK CB's securities statistics Oct 9:00 DKK Foreign portfolio investments Oct 9:30 SEK Retail sales s.a. m/m y/y Oct 0.2% 1.6% 9:55 DEM Unemployment % Nov 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 10:00 ITL Business confidence Index Nov :00 NOK Wage index manufacturing q/q 3rd quarter 1.1% 10:00 EUR M3 money supply y/y Oct 1.7% 2.1% 11:00 EUR Consumer confidence, final Net bal. Nov :00 EUR Economic confidence Index Nov :00 EUR Industrial confidence Net bal. Nov :00 EUR Services confidence Net bal. Nov :00 EUR Business climate indicator Nov :00 DEM HICP, preliminary m/m y/y Nov 1.4% -0.1% 1.3% -0.3% 1.2% Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets 3 28 November 2013

4 Today s market data: 28 November S&P500 Intraday, % STOCKS DJSTOXX50 Max 0.6 Max 1.2 OM XC Min Min OM XS OSE BX Grey line indicates closing of Danish markets DOW JONES NASDAQ 1 month 2.6% 1 month 1.3% S&P % Year-to-date 26.7% Year-to-date 12.2% NIKKEI (07:30) % FX & COMMODITIES EUR 17:00 07:30 +/ USD : JPY day Max ## GBP month Min ## NOK Year-t-date SEK DKK CRB C R B, R aw PLN USD 17:00 07:30 +/- JPY day month -2 GBP month Year-to-date 3.90 CHF Year-t-date YIELDS & INTEREST RATES Go ld, $ 1M future USD-Yields Intraday Spread, 0.30 P o licy R ate 3M bp 17:00 07:30 +/-, bp 2.78 USD2Y USD10Y USD USD 10Y Max 0.3 Max 2.8 EUR USD 30Y Min 0.3 Min GBP JPY 10Y DKK SEK :30(-1)* 17:00 +/-, bp USD2Y (lhs) EUR/USD Intraday USD10Y (rhs) Eurostoxx Intraday, % Grey line indicates opening of US markets :30 Close Close NOK DEM 10Y PLN DKK 10Y % 0.3% 0.7% +/- +/- 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% Oil, B rent, $ Industrials SEK 10Y NOK 10Y PLN 10Y * As of closing previous trading day Y Yield Spread to Germany USDJPYGBPFRF ITL DKKSEKNOKPLN US Yield Curve ## M ax ## M ax ## M in ## M in ### USD2Y USD5Y USD10Y D-t-D +/-, bp (right axis) 07:30 (left axis) 1 month ago (left axis) German Yield Curve DEM2Y DEM5YR DEM10Y D-t-D +/-, bp (right axis) 07:30 (left axis) 1 month ago (left axis) C redit spread, it raxx s. 11* Credit spreads Swap Spread, bp** :00 07:30 +/- 07:30 1 day 1 month USD 10Y Europe (IG) JPY 10Y HiVol Xover (N-IG) :30(-1)* 17:00 +/ EUR 10Y DKK 10Y Finan. Sr SEK 10Y Finan. Sub Nov Jan Mar Apr May Jul Aug Oct Nov NOK 10Y Non-finan. itraxx Europe (IG) (left axis) itraxx Xover (Non IG) (right axis) * As of closing previous trading day * Ask price ** Ask price 4 28 November 2013

5 Disclosure This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S ( Danske Bank ). Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request. The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of highquality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors upon request. Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. Expected updates Danske Daily is updated on a daily basis. First date of publication Please see the front page of this research report for the first date of publication. Price-related data is calculated using the closing price from the day before publication November 2013

6 General disclaimer This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e. financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect to any such financial instruments) ( Relevant Financial Instruments ). The research report has been prepared independently and solely on the basis of publicly available information that Danske Bank considers to be reliable. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this research report. The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date hereof. These opinions are subject to change, and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor of any other changes related to the information provided in this research report. This research report is not intended for retail customers in the United Kingdom or the United States. This research report is protected by copyright and is intended solely for the designated addressee. It may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, by any recipient for any purpose without Danske Bank s prior written consent. Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States This research report is distributed in the United States by Danske Markets Inc., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and subsidiary of Danske Bank, pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6 and related interpretations issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The research report is intended for distribution in the United States solely to "U.S. institutional investors" as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6. Danske Markets Inc. accepts responsibility for this research report in connection with distribution in the United States solely to U.S. institutional investors. Danske Bank is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In addition, the research analysts of Danske Bank who have prepared this research report are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA, but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-u.s. jurisdiction. Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting Danske Markets Inc. directly and should be aware that investing in non- U.S. financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of non-u.s. issuers may not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be subject to the reporting and auditing standards of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission November 2013

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