Current Climate Trends in the Philippines

Transcription

1 How s The Climate Changing In The Philippines? Current Climate Trends in the Philippines PAGASA - DOST

2 In the Philippines, there are already trends of increasing number of hot days and warm nights, but decreasing number of cold days and cool nights. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are generally getting warmer. Other extreme weather/climate events like intense rains have been more frequent.

3 Observed 24-hour rainfall 455mm

4 Landslide :Ginsaugon, Feb 2006 TY Reming (DURIAN) Nov 2006 TY Milenyo, Sept 2006 Typhoon Frank (Fengshen) June 21, (MV Princess of the Stars)

5 ORMOC FLASHFLOOD November 1991 PANAON ISLAND FLASHFLOOD Dec 2003 INFANTA & AURORA FLASHFLOOD Dec 2004 ST. BERNARD LANDSLIDE Feb 2006

6 Typhoon Frank (Fengshen) June 21, (MV Princess of the Stars) www. Typhoon Durian [Reming] Nov Typhoon Frank June 2008 T. Storm Ketsana [Ondoy] & Typhoon Parma [Pepeng] Sept. and Oct. 2009

7 Storm surge in Manila Bay Typhoon Pedring & Quiel (Sept 2011) Floodings in Central Luzon Floodings due to storm surge generated by Typhoon Pedring.

8 T. STORM TS SENDONG Dec 2011 CDO & ILIGAN

9 TRENDS: -Temperature -Rainfall Intensity -Tropical Cyclones

10 0.648

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12 almost 3 times increase in maximum temperatures

13 Trend in the frequency of days with maximum temperature above the mean 99th percentile (Hot days). Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature above the mean 99th percentile (Warm nights)

14 Trend in the frequency with Maximum temperature above the mean 1st percentile Cool Days Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature above the mean 1st percentile Cold nights

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17 Number of Tropical Cyclones Annual Number of Tropical Cyclones in the PAR Period: Number of Tropical Cyclones Five-year running mean Linear (Five-year running mean) y = x Year * Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.

18 Number of TropicalCyclones ) Number of Landfalling TC's 150 Number of non-landfalling TC's Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Monthly Mean

19 Number of Tropical Cyclones Number of Tropical Cyclones 20.5 Comparison of 30-year mean number of Tropical Cyclone in the Philippines 21.0 Comparison of 10-year mean number of Tropical Cyclone in the Philippines years Mean No. of T.C years Mean No. of T.C

20 Neutral Year Tracks during ENSO and None-ENSO El Niño Year La Niña Year

21 No. of Tc Decadal Number of Tropical cyclones by ENSO Category ( ) Neutral El Niño La Niña Total

22 No. of Tc Monthly number of Tropical cyclone by Category ( ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Nuetral El Nino La Nina

23 Frequency of TC Number of Extreme Typhoons Iin the PAR (with maximum sustain winds of 150 kph and above) Period: Nuetral year El Niño year La Niña year (9TCs) 1987 (10TCs) Year

24 Number Trends in the Number of TC TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES LUZON Luzon VISAYAS Visayas MINDANAO Mindanao

25 Extreme Climate variability (ENSO of 2010) Rainfall Maps Nov Dec Feb Jan Mar Sept Oct Black areas: Excessive rains Red areas: rainfall deficit

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27 Rainfall Amount (mm) Rainfall Anomaly in Manila Period: (departure from 1971 to 2000 normal values) Rainfall Anomaly (from ) 5 yr moving ave Linear (5 yr moving ave)

28 2500 Comparison of 30 years Average Mean Rainfall for Manila

29 Mean Temperature ( C) Annual Mean Temperature ( C) Manila ( ) Annual Mean Temperature 5-year moving average Linear (5-year moving average) y = 0.02x YEAR An increase of 2.18 C from (109 years)

30 Tempearutre C Comparison of the 30-years average of MeanTemperature for Manila Manila

31 Over the last 60years (1951 to 2010), the average (mean) annual temperature in the Philippines has risen by about C. There is significant increase in the number of hot days and warm nights and decreasing trend in the number of cold days and cold nights. Overall, no evident increase or decrease of annual rainfall observed in the Philippines, but; increasing trend in the frequency of extreme rainfall events, increasing trend in the intensity of extreme rainfall. The mean number of tropical cyclones during the last two decades ( & ) have been less compared to past decades.

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33 0001 > AMANG / TD / 2011 / to > BEBENG / TS / 2011 / to > CHEDENG / TY / 2011 / to > DODONG / TS / 2011 / to > EGAY / TS / 2011 / to > FALCON / TS / 2011 / to > GORING / TD / 2011 / to > HANNA / TD / 2011 / to > INENG / TY / 2011 / to > JUANING / TS / 2011 / to > KABAYAN / TY / 2011 / to > LANDO / TD / 2011 / to > MINA / TY / 2011 / to > NONOY / TS / 2011 / to > ONYOK / TD / 2011 / to > PEDRING / TY / 2011 / to > QUIEL / TY / 2011 / to > RAMON / TS / 2011 / to > SENDONG / TS / 2011 / to

34 Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in the Philippines ( ) Northern Luzon is most frequently hit by tropical cyclones followed by Catanduanes and Northern Samar and least in the Mindanao area.

35 Average tropical cyclone tracks ( )