Investment Research General Market Conditions 03 December 2013

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1 Investment Research General Market Conditions 03 December 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today In an otherwise busy week we have a very thin calendar today. In terms of data releases the market will focus on UK PMI construction, which is expected to move sideways at a very high level around 59. In the euro area the consensus expectation is for a further decline in PPI, which is already below zero. However, the data are for October and should not attract much attention. In the evening ECB s Nowotny speaks at an event in Brussels and this is likely to get some attention ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday. Nowotny has previously said the ECB has a number of measures to fight low inflation and any elaboration will be scrutinised by the market. Denmark releases currency reserve data see page 2. Selected market news Stock markets yesterday dropped as a very strong ISM manufacturing report in the US raised the probability of Fed tapering already in December and pushed bond yields higher, see ISM very robust - raises probability of Fed tapering already in December, 2 December. After a strong rally in October and November and warnings about a new bubble by Robert Shiller recently (see MarketWatch) the stock market may be in for a breather. Stock markets are mixed in Asia with Nikkei higher, while Hang Seng and Chinese stocks are slightly lower. US 10-year yields jumped five bp following the ISM release and have stayed broadly unchanged overnight. The ISM index showed new orders and employment indices at the highest levels since April Interestingly, the 2-year yield did not move much from a level around 0.29%. Hence the very subdued market expectations of the timing and pace of Fed hikes were broadly unchanged after the report. The first hike is priced in November 2015 and the pace of hikes in 2016 and 2017 priced by the market is very slow. EUR/USD got a push lower and has drifted a bit further down following the strong US data. Market overview Note: * The itraxx Europe Index shows the spread development for the most liquid investment grade CDS contracts in the euro credit market. **The itraxx Europe Crossover show the spread development of the most liquid non-investment grade CDS contracts in the euro credit market. ***The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index shows the spread development for the most liquid investment grade CDS contracts in the US credit market. Source: Bloomberg 07:30 1 day +/-,% S&P500 (close) S&P500 fut (chng from close) Nikkei Hang Seng :00 07:30 +/-, bp US 2y gov US 10y gov itraxx Europe (IG) itraxx Xover (Non IG) /-, % EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/GBP EUR/SEK EUR/NOK USD Oil Brent, USD Gold, USD China s non-manufacturing PMI fell slightly in November to 56.0 from It still points to decent growth, though, as does PMI manufacturing. Chinese PMIs may very well be at a peak, as the investment driven recovery in H2 is expected to level off a bit going into USD/JPY rose further overnight as numbers on the monetary base showed an increase to 5% y/y up from 45.8% in October. We continue to look for further JPY weakening over the next 12 months as Japanese monetary policy continues to be the most aggressive among the big central banks. AUD has fallen slightly overnight after Reserve Bank of Australia said the currency remains uncomfortably high and that a lower currency is needed for balanced growth. Rates were kept unchanged at % in line with consensus. Chief Analyst Allan von Mehren Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 5.of this report.

2 Scandi markets today Danmarks Nationalbank (DN) will publish November's currency reserve figures. EUR/DKK was stable below the central rate in November and DN has therefore not needed to intervene to support DKK. DN has not intervened since January; hence, an independent DN rate hike is not imminent. Eyes will be on Riksbank today as two potential defectors from its hawkish majority hold presentations/speeches today. Deputy Governor Skingsley will talk about the current economic situation in Sweden and abroad at a seminar this morning (08:00 CET) but this will not be published. Deputy Governor Jansson will speak about How do we stop the trend in household debt? ; his speech will be released at noon (12:10 CET). In Norway the retail sales figures for October will be important, as weak consumer spending has been one of the main reasons for the slowdown this year. After the shocking drop in the retail part of the Regional survey on Friday (index dropped to 0, the lowest since Q1 2009) we have to prepare ourselves for another bad number. We expect retail sales to have dropped 0.3% m/m in October. However, should the figure turn out to be better, it would imply that the Regional survey exaggerated the weakening of the retail sector and hence the overall economy in Q4. Fixed Income markets The strong ISM report indicates that the US economy is less affected by the government shutdown than previously thought. If non-farm payrolls on Friday come out around 200,000, we give it a 50% chance that tapering starts already this month. This is probably not that far from what the US Treasury markets are discounting for the 10Y segment. Hence, while the 10Y segment is broadly fair, we believe the 5Y/10Y slope of the US swap curve is too steep, which reflects that the Fed has managed to separate the decision to taper and the expectations of a first hike. Overall, we believe 5Y/10Y should see a bearish flattening as the money market curve should steepen if data continue their current strength. Even in a scenario where data disappoint we should see (bullish) flattening of the 5Y/10Y slope as tapering expectations are pushed further out. Meanwhile in Europe, we believe the case for flattening of the 5Y/10Y is less obvious, as the ECB to a larger extent should be able to maintain its grip on the money market curve given the disinflationary outlook for Europe. US S&P500 future Fri Mon Tue Thu Mon Tue US 10y gov yield Fri Mon Tue Wed Mon Tue Global FX EUR/USD (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS) Fri Mon Wed Thu Sun Tue Scandi FX FX markets Following a Monday during which FX markets traded mainly on PMIs (which mostly turned out stronger than expected - not least in the UK and the US) focus will likely return to key events later in the week. Notably, this could end as a week in which EUR/USD heads lower in anticipation of a dovish ECB on Thursday and a strong payroll report on Friday. Also, watch out for Norwegian retail sales today: a disappointment could pave the way for a dovish Norges Bank and further NOK downside later in the week. Despite strong retail sales and export data out of Australia, AUD dived overnight after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate target unchanged at 0% as expected and reiterated that AUD remains uncomfortably high. We still see potential for AUD to head lower from here with the prospect of a challenging year for emerging markets in general and commodity exporters in particular heading into IMM positioning data released yesterday (delayed due to Thanksgiving) showed unwinding of EUR longs leaving net EUR positioning almost square. Thus the FX markets appear to be gradually gearing up for USD strength, suggesting that strong payrolls on Friday, which would raise the chance of December Fed tapering markedly, may not necessarily steer a large move lower in EUR/USD downside. EUR/SEK (LHS) EUR/NOK (RHS) Fri Mon Wed Thu Mon December 2013

3 Key figures and events Tuesday, December 3, 2013 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous 10:30 GBP PMI construction Index Nov :00 EUR PPI m/m y/y Oct -0.2% -% 0.1% -0.9% 16:00 DKK Currency reserves DKK bn Nov :00 USD Total vehicle sales m Nov Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets 3 03 December 2013

4 Today s market data: 03 December 2013 STOCKS DOW JONES Grey line indicates closing of Danish markets NASDAQ 4045 Grey line indicates opening of US markets 1 month 2.2% 1 month 0.7% S&P Year-to-date 26.3% Year-to-date 12.2% NIKKEI (07:30) % FX & COMMODITIES EUR 17:00 07:30 +/- USD JPY day 2-3 Max ## GBP month Min ## NOK Year-t-date SEK DKK CRB C R B, R aw PLN USD 17:00 07:30 +/- JPY day month 0.30 GBP month Year-to-date 3.51 CHF Year-t-date YIELDS & INTEREST RATES USD-Yields Intraday Spread, 0.30 P o licy R ate 3M bp 17:00 07:30 +/-, bp 2.82 USD2Y USD10Y USD USD 10Y Max 0.3 Max EUR USD 30Y Min 0.3 Min 2.7 GBP JPY 10Y DKK SEK :30(-1)* 17:00 +/-, bp NOK DEM 10Y USD2Y (lhs) EUR/USD Intraday USD10Y (rhs) :30 07:30 Close Go ld, $ M future PLN DKK 10Y S&P500 Intraday, % Eurostoxx Intraday, % Close +/ DJSTOXX % Max 0.6 Max 0.9 OM XC % Min Min OM XS % OSE BX % +/- -% -0.4% -0.3% Oil, B rent, $ Industrials SEK 10Y NOK 10Y PLN 10Y * As of closing previous trading day Y Yield Spread to Germany USDJPYGBPFRF ITL DKKSEKNOKPLN US Yield Curve ## M ax ## M ax ### 0.8 ## M in ## M in ### USD2Y USD5Y USD10Y D-t-D +/-, bp (right axis) 07:30 (left axis) 1 month ago (left axis) German Yield Curve DEM2Y DEM5YR DEM10Y D-t-D +/-, bp (right axis) 07:30 (left axis) 1 month ago (left axis) C redit spread, it raxx s. 11* Credit spreads Swap Spread, bp** :00 07:30 +/- 07:30 1 day 1 month USD 10Y Europe (IG) JPY 10Y HiVol Xover (N-IG) :30(-1)* 17:00 +/ EUR 10Y DKK 10Y Finan. Sr SEK 10Y Finan. Sub Dec Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec NOK 10Y Non-finan. itraxx Europe (IG) (left axis) itraxx Xover (Non IG) (right axis) * As of closing previous trading day * Ask price ** Ask price 4 03 December 2013

5 Disclosure This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S ( Danske Bank ). Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request. The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of highquality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors upon request. Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. Date of first publication See the front page of this research report for the date of first publication. General disclaimer This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e. financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect to any such financial instruments) ( Relevant Financial Instruments ). The research report has been prepared independently and solely on the basis of publicly available information that Danske Bank considers to be reliable. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this research report. The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date hereof. These opinions are subject to change, and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor of any other changes related to the information provided in this research report. This research report is not intended for retail customers in the United Kingdom or the United States December 2013

6 This research report is protected by copyright and is intended solely for the designated addressee. It may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, by any recipient for any purpose without Danske Bank s prior written consent. Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States This research report is distributed in the United States by Danske Markets Inc., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and subsidiary of Danske Bank, pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6 and related interpretations issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The research report is intended for distribution in the United States solely to U.S. institutional investors as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6. Danske Markets Inc. accepts responsibility for this research report in connection with distribution in the United States solely to U.S. institutional investors. Danske Bank is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In addition, the research analysts of Danske Bank who have prepared this research report are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-u.s. jurisdiction. Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting Danske Markets Inc. directly and should be aware that investing in non- U.S. financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of non-u.s. issuers may not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be subject to the reporting and auditing standards of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission December 2013

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