Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news. It is CPI day today with the release of CPI inflation for March in both the euro area

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1 Investment Research General Market Conditions 17 April 2015 Danske Daily Market movers today It is CPI day today with the release of CPI inflation for March in both the euro area and the US. Euro-area inflation is not that exciting as we already have the Flash estimate. The final number is expected to be unchanged from the Flash report showing a headline inflation rate of -0.1% y/y and core inflation at 0.6% y/y. In the US focus will be on core CPI as it is one of the factors the Fed is watching closely. We look for core CPI to rise 0.2% m/m in line with consensus and the annual rate to be unchanged from February at 1.7%. This should inspire confidence for the Fed that it is still on track to meet the 2% target in the medium term (note though that the Fed is targeting PCE inflation and not CPI inflation). In the UK it is time for labour market data. We look for an unchanged unemployment rate at 5.7% (a little higher than consensus that sees a decline to 5.6%). Also keep an eye on wage growth, which is important for future inflation. We look for wage growth to rise to 1.7% (three-month average of annual rate) from 1.6%. in February - in line with consensus. Selected market news In the euro area the rally in the core continues with German bond yields moving even lower yesterday. Periphery spreads, however, widened as Greek risks are spilling over into the rest of the periphery and the Germany/Italy 30 year spread moved 12bp wider. It does not look like there is a real deadline on the Greek issue before the 12 May IMF repayment and we are a bit surprised about the magnitude of the contagion taking into account the ongoing ECB buying. In the US, another round of unimpressive data was released yesterday and 2-10 year treasury yields ended the day 2-3bp lower while equity markets ended the day slightly down. Housing starts data for March showed a smaller rebound than expected and although the Philly Fed April manufacturing survey increased, the details were mixed and overall suggest only limited upside to the ISM and manufacturing activity in April. This morning risk sentiment in Asian trading is mixed, with Chinese stocks gaining on speculation that China will implement further policy easing while most indices outside China are down. In FX markets EUR/USD has continued higher as markets lowered the expected path for the Fed funds rate further yesterday. The market is now pricing barely no chance that the Fed will deliver more than one 25bp rate hike this year. We continue to expect a first 25bp rate hike in September followed by another 25bp at the December FOMC meeting. Market overview USD Oil Brent, USD Gold, USD Note: * The itraxx Europe Index shows the spread development for the most liquid investment grade CDS contracts in the euro credit market. **The itraxx Europe Crossover show the spread development of the most liquid non-investment grade CDS contracts in the euro credit market. ***The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index shows the spread development for the most liquid investment grade CDS contracts in the US credit market. Source: Bloomberg 07:30 1 day,% S&P500 (close) S&P500 fut (chng from close) Nikkei Hang Seng :00 07:30, bp US 2y gov US 10y gov itraxx Europe (IG) itraxx Xover (Non IG) , % EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/GBP EUR/SEK EUR/NOK Selected readings from Danske Bank Research: Finnish parliamentary polls point to a new government, 16 April 2015 T Senior Analyst Signe Roed-Frederiksen.dk Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 5 of this report.

2 Scandi marketsy No key data releases today. Fixed income markets The rally in the core continues with Germany hitting new lows across the curve. The average German yield (market weighted) has dropped to -5bp and we only have 4 Bunds left sub 10Y that still yield positive. ECB Governing Council member Hansson (Estonia) made some interesting comments late yesterday on the possibility to expand the PSPP programme to corporate debt in a second stage during the coming months. So even though Draghi labelled the scarcity discussion as premature, Hansson made it clear that the relevance is acknowledged. Greek concerns are weighing on the periphery, although it does not look like there is a real deadline before the 12 May IMF repayment. This is an ongoing saga and we are bit surprised about the magnitude of the contagion taking into account the ongoing ECB buying. FX markets Today focus in FX markets will turn to the USD and the GBP on the back of the releases of US CPI data and UK earnings and unemployment figures. While our expectations for today s figures do not deviate substantially from market consensus we still look for a general improvement in economic data in the coming months to support our call for an earlier-than-market-priced time of rate hike take-off: we expect the Fed to hike in September and BoE to hike in November (see Research UK: We have moved the first BoE hike to November 2015, 15 April). Importantly, irrespective of UK data the upcoming general election on 7 May will likely be a source of GBP weakness and higher volatility. While we think that the election risk has been priced in relatively well in option markets already, we think a full risk premium has yet to be priced into the spot rates. GBP softness should, however, primarily be a concern for GBP/USD, and as we expect the USD to perform in the coming months, EUR/GBP could continue to trade lower despite an increased political risk premium being priced into GBP. US S&P500 future Wed Thu Fri Tue Wed Fri US 10y gov yield Wed Thu Mon Tue Wed Fri Global FX EUR/USD (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS) Wed Thu Mon Tue Wed Fri Scandi FX EUR/SEK (LHS) EUR/NOK (RHS) Wed Thu Mon Tue Wed April 2015

3 Key figures and events Friday, April 17, 2015 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous 9:15 CHF Retail sales y/y Feb -0.3% 10:00 EUR Current account EUR bn Feb :30 GBP Average Earnings 3Ms/YoY Jan 1.7% 1.8% 10:30 GBP Average Earnings (ex bonus) 3Ms/YoY Feb 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 10:30 GBP ILO Unemployment rate % Feb 5.7% 5.6% 5.7% 11:00 EUR CPI, final m/m y/y Mar 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% -0.1% 11:00 EUR CPI - core, final % Mar 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 14:30 USD CPI m/m y/y Mar 0.2% % 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% % 14:30 USD CPI - core m/m y/y Mar 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 1.6% 0.2% 1.7% 14:30 CAD CPI m/m y/y Mar... % 0.2% % 14:30 CAD Retail sales m/m Feb -1.7% 16:00 USD University of Michigan Confidence, preliminary Index Apr Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets 3 17 April 2015

4 Today s market data: 17 April 2015 STOCKS S&P500 Intraday, % Eurostoxx Intraday, % Close DJSTOXX % Max 0.6 Max 0.4 OMXC % 0.10 Min Min OMXS % OSE BX % Close DOW JONES % Grey line indicates closing of Danish markets Grey line indicates opening of US markets NASDAQ % 1 month 1.5% 1 month 4.0% S&P % Year-to-date 2.2% Year-to-date 18.7% NIKKEI (07:30) % FX & COMMODITIES EUR/USD Intraday EUR 17:00 07:30 Gold, $ USD : JPY day Max GBP month Min 106 NOK Year-t-date SEK DKK CRB Oil, Brent, $ CRB, Raw Industrials YIELDS & INTEREST RATES USD-Yields Intraday Spread, Policy Rate 3M bp 17:00 07:30, bp USD2Y USD10Y USD USD 10Y Max 0.5 Max 1.9 EUR USD 30Y Min 0.5 Min 1.9 GBP JPY 10Y DKK SEK :30(-1)* 17:00, bp USD2Y (lhs) USD10Y (rhs) 1.85 NOK DEM 10Y PLN DKK 10Y SEK 10Y NOK 10Y PLN 10Y * As of closing previous trading day 10Y Yield Spread to Germany USD JPY GBP FRF ITL DKKSEKNOKPLN US Yield Curve Max 00 0 Max Min Min #### USD2Y USD5Y USD10Y D-t-D, bp (right axis) 07:30 (left axis) 1 month ago (left axis) German Yield Curve DEM2Y DEM5YR DEM10Y D-t-D, bp (right axis) 07:30 (left axis) 1 month ago (left axis) Non-finan. Credit spread, itraxx s. 11* 07:30 1 day 1 month Credit spreads USD 10Y * Ask price ** Ask price Swap Spread, bp** Europe (IG) JPY 10Y HiVol Xover (N-IG) :30(-1)* 17: EUR 10Y DKK 10Y Finan. Sr SEK 10Y Apr Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Feb Apr Finan. Sub NOK 10Y itraxx Europe (IG) (left axis) itraxx Xover (Non IG) (right axis) :00 * As of closing previous trading day 07: PLN M future USD 17:00 07:30 07: JPY day month 1.74 GBP month Year-to-date CHF Year-t-date April 2015

5 Disclosure This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S ( Danske Bank ). Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request. The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of highquality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors upon request. Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. Expected updates Danske Daily is updated on a daily basis. First date of publication Please see the front page of this research report for the first date of publication. Price-related data is calculated using the closing price from the day before publication April 2015

6 General disclaimer This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e. financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect to any such financial instruments) ( Relevant Financial Instruments ). The research report has been prepared independently and solely on the basis of publicly available information that Danske Bank considers to be reliable. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this research report. The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date hereof. These opinions are subject to change, and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor of any other changes related to the information provided in this research report. This research report is not intended for retail customers in the United Kingdom or the United States. This research report is protected by copyright and is intended solely for the designated addressee. It may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, by any recipient for any purpose without Danske Bank s prior written consent. Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States This research report is distributed in the United States by Danske Markets Inc., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and subsidiary of Danske Bank, pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6 and related interpretations issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The research report is intended for distribution in the United States solely to "U.S. institutional investors" as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6. Danske Markets Inc. accepts responsibility for this research report in connection with distribution in the United States solely to U.S. institutional investors. Danske Bank is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In addition, the research analysts of Danske Bank who have prepared this research report are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA, but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-u.s. jurisdiction. Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting Danske Markets Inc. directly and should be aware that investing in non- U.S. financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of non-u.s. issuers may not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be subject to the reporting and auditing standards of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission April 2015

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