Investment Research General Market Conditions 30 September 2014

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Investment Research General Market Conditions 30 September 2014"

Transcription

1 Investment Research General Market Conditions 30 September 2014 Danske Daily Market movers today German retail sales and French consumer spending figures are due for release this morning. These data are quite volatile so they will not provide much new information. Overall, euro-area retail sales have held up well but they might soon see some negative spill-over from the weaker activity in manufacturing. The euro Flash CPI for September is expected at 0.3% y/y from 0.4% in August. However, following slightly higher than expected German inflation yesterday there is some upside risk to this number. The euro-area unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 11.5%. The trend in unemployment has been lower over the past year but the recent softening in activity is expected to lead to a pause in the decline in the short term. US consumer confidence is expected to rise further in September to a new cycle high. Not least the job component will be interesting as non-farm payrolls are released on Friday. Finally, US Chicago PMI will give the last clue to ISM on Wednesday. It has been very volatile lately, though, and hence may not give much useful information. Consensus is for a small decline. Selected market news In Hong Kong, demonstrations are expected to continue tonight, which has been the routine for two days now with the crowd diminishing during the day to return in full force in the evening and stay during the night. Asian equity markets were lower overnight, again led by the Hang Seng Index, as the negative sentiment carried over from the US session and as the final HSBC China manufacturing PMI disappointed by being revised lower to 50.2 from 5. As a result of the sell-off, the price gap between duallisted shares in Hong Kong and Shanghai has been eliminated. While focus is on Hong Kong, the situation in Ukraine appears to be worsening again with Ukraine suffering the highest number of casualties since the 5 September. According to the Ukraine military nine servicemen have been killed in the last 24 hours. Japanese data released overnight were a mixed bag with a surprise drop in preliminary August industrial production (-1.5% m/m), strong August retail sales (1.9% m/m), and a further increase in labour cash earnings (1.4% y/y). USD/JPY continues to trade just below 110 but as US rate hikes roll in on the money market curve, we expect upwards pressure on spot to remain. In the bond market, the 10-year US Treasury yield closed below 2.5%, which implies that half of the September correction (that took yields from 2.34% to 2.61%) has now been regained. In Europe, pressure returned to the peripheral bond markets yesterday, which have, however, held up well in recent months, despite the increased uncertainty about the depth of the European growth slowdown. The key market support factor remains ECB monetary policy easing. Market overview USD Olie Brent, USD Guld, USD Note: * The itraxx Europe Index shows the spread development for the most liquid investment grade CDS contracts in the euro credit market. **The itraxx Europe Crossover show the spread development of the most liquid non-investment grade CDS contracts in the euro credit market. ***The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index shows the spread development for the most liquid investment grade CDS contracts in the US credit market. Source: Bloomberg Selected readings from Danske Bank China: Demonstrations in Hong Kong will most likely stay local IMM positioning: Investors add JPY shorts Chief Analyst Kasper Kirkegaard :30 1 dag +/-,% S&P500 (lukning) S&P500 fut (ændr. fra lukning) Nikkei Hang Seng :00 07:30 +/-, bp US 2 års stat US 10 års stat itraxx Europe (IG) itraxx Xover (Non IG) /-, % EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/GBP EUR/SEK EUR/NOK T Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 5 of this report.

2 Scandi markets Norway. After strong growth earlier in the summer, retail sales dropped sharply in July, putting paid to any fears of an impending consumer boom. However, we reckon the hot weather and a correction from the strong growth in May and June were the main reasons for the fall in July. Based on signals from the trade, we expect retail sales to grow % m/m in August. This will still mean more or less zero growth in private consumption in Q3 but will confirm that there is little downside risk to growth from private consumption going forward. Fixed income markets Periphery bond markets are underperforming on increased political risks in Greece and Spain. In Greece, the sharp underperformance yesterday was driven by fears that general elections will be called upon next spring, and in Spain renewed focus on whether the planned referendum on independence in Catalonia can take place or not weighed on the market. While these fears are largely exaggerated, they are examples of the nervousness that can easily arise in markets where there is no nominal anchor. Regarding the ECB meeting on Thursday, we do not expect any particular direction in the Euro government bond markets. Today we expect a calm market ahead of the ECB meeting and supply from Germany, France and Spain later this week. FX markets In the Scandi FX markets we expect the NOK to be supported by a solid increase in Norwegian retail sales in August. Moreover, Norges Bank will announce its daily FX purchases in October. Currently, Norges Bank is making no daily transactions in the market but there is a possibility that it will announce today that it will be buying NOK in the market in October. We expect this to happen in November but if Norges Bank announces it will take place in October, it should - everything else being equal - give a boost to the NOK. NOK positioning appears to be relatively clean after the latest FX flow data from Norges Bank showed that foreigners sold NOK15bn in the week ending 21 September and in general we expect EUR/NOK to gradually edge lower as volatility comes off and oil prices stabilise. We continue to target EUR/NOK at 8.10 in 1M and 7.95 in 3M. In the global FX markets the euro-zone flash CPI estimate will attract some attention ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday. After the relatively disappointing first TLTRO allotment, it appears to be difficult for the ECB to reach its target of an expansion of the balance sheet towards the dimensions it used to have at the beginning of Hence, speculations of additional ECB easing (QE) will likely remain a theme in market in the coming months, which is expected to weigh further on the euro. US S&P500 future Fri Mon Tue Thu Fri Tue US 10y gov yield Fri Mon Wed Thu Fri Tue Global FX EUR/USD (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS) Fri Mon Wed Thu Fri Tue Scandi FX EUR/SEK (LHS) EUR/NOK (RHS) Fri Mon Wed Thu Sun Falling commodity prices, worries of a slowdown in China, rising US rates, technical factors and a general change of sentiment sent AUD/USD and NZD/USD markedly lower in September. Despite the falls both AUD/USD and NZD/USD remain significantly overvalued relative to our long run Danske Bank PPP-estimates of 0.75 and 0.66, respectively. We believe that both RBA and RBNZ will keep their monetary policy rate unchanged for the remainder of 2014, as RBA awaits the full effects of falling mining investments and RBNZ awaits the full effects of their spring rate hikes. In addition, yesterday s release of RBNZ FX reserve data has removed speculations that RBNZ will stick to verbal intervention alone and the possibility of further intervention is imminent. Finally, recent data for speculative positioning (CFTC IMM) show that positioning does 2 30 September

3 not pose a barrier for further AUD and NZD weakening. In light of the above we lower our 1M, 3M, 6M and 12M AUD/USD forecasts to 0.86 (previously 0.89), 0.85 (0.88), 0.84 (0.87) and 0.83 (0.86), respectively. We also lower our 1M, 3M, 6M and 12M NZD/USD forecasts to 0.76 (0.80), 0.75 (0.79), 0.74 (0.78) and 0.73 (0.77), respectively. Key figures and events Tuesday, September 30, 2014 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous 1:05 GBP Gfk Consumer confidence Index Sep 0 1:30 JPY Household spending y/y Aug -3.60% -5.90% 1:30 JPY Unemployment rate % Aug 3.80% 3.80% 3.80% 1:30 JPY Job-to-applicant ratio Aug :50 JPY Large retailers' sales y/y Aug 0.30% -0.60% 1:50 JPY Retail trade m/m y/y Aug 0.70% 0.30% -0% 0.60% 1:50 JPY Industrial production, preliminary m/m y/y Aug 0.10% 0.20% -1.10% 0.40% -0.70% 3:30 JPY Labor cash earnings y/y Aug 0% 2.40% 3:45 CNY HSBC manf. PMI, final Index Sep 5 5 7:00 JPY Small business confidence Index Sep :00 JPY Housing starts y/y Aug % % 8:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices m/m y/y Sep 0% 10.40% 0.80% 10% 8:45 FRF Household consumption m/m y/y Aug :00 DKK GDP, quarterly figure (ESA 2010 main revision) q/q y/y 2nd quarter -0.30% 0% 9:00 DKK Gross unemployment s.a. K (%) Aug (5.1%) (5.1%) 9:30 SEK Wages (blue collars/white collars) y/y Jul 2.20% 9:55 DEM Unemployment % Sep 6.70% 6.70% 6.70% 10:00 NOK Retail sales, s.a. m/m Aug 0% 0.80% -1.50% 10:00 NOK Credit indicator (C2) y/y Aug 5.40% 5.40% 10:30 GBP GDP, final q/q y/y 2nd quarter 0.80% 3.20% 0.80% 3.20% 11:00 ITL HICP, preliminary m/m y/y Sep -0.20% -0.20% 11:00 EUR Unemployment % Aug 11.50% 11.50% 11.50% 11:00 EUR CPI - core, preliminary % Sep 0.90% 0.90% 0.90% 11:00 EUR CPI, preliminary y/y Sep 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 14:30 CAD GDP m/m y/y Jul :30 CAD GDP m/m y/y Jul 0.20% % 3.10% 15:00 USD S&P Case Shiller House prices Index Jul :45 USD Chicago PMI Index Sep :00 USD Consumer confidence Index Sep Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets 3 30 September

4 Today s market data: 30 September 2014 STOCKS S&P500 Intraday, % Eurostoxx Intraday, % Close +/- 0 0 DJSTOXX % Max 0.3 Max 0.6 OMXC % Min Min OMXS % 0.4 OSE BX % Close +/ DOW JONES % Grey line indicates closing of Danish markets Grey line indicates opening of US markets NASDAQ 4506 % 1 month -1.3% 1 month 0.2% S&P % Year-to-date 7.0% Year-to-date 4.5% NIKKEI (07:30) % FX & COMMODITIES EUR/USD Intraday EUR 17:00 07:30 +/- Gold, $ USD : JPY day 2.10 Max 127 GBP month Min NOK Year-t-date SEK DKK CRB PLN M future USD 17:00 07:30 +/- 07: JPY day month GBP month Year-to-date -10 CHF Year-t-date 2.97 Oil, Brent, $ CRB, Raw Industrials YIELDS & INTEREST RATES USD-Yields Intraday Spread, Policy Rate 3M bp 17:00 07:30 +/-, bp USD2Y USD10Y USD USD 10Y Max 0.6 Max 2.6 EUR USD 30Y Min Min 2.5 GBP JPY 10Y DKK SEK :30(-1)* 17:00 +/-, bp USD2Y (lhs) USD10Y (rhs) 2.46 NOK DEM 10Y PLN DKK 10Y SEK 10Y NOK 10Y PLN 10Y * As of closing previous trading day Y Yield Spread to Germany USD JPY GBP FRF ITL DKKSEKNOKPLN US Yield Curve Max Max Min Min USD2Y USD5Y USD10Y D-t-D +/-, bp (right axis) 07:30 (left axis) 1 month ago (left axis) German Yield Curve DEM2Y DEM5YR DEM10Y D-t-D +/-, bp (right axis) 07:30 (left axis) 1 month ago (left axis) Credit spread, itraxx s. 11* Credit spreads Swap Spread, bp** :00 07:30 +/- 07:30 1 day 1 month USD 10Y 350 Europe (IG) JPY 10Y HiVol Xover (N-IG) :30(-1)* 17:00 +/ EUR 10Y DKK 10Y Finan. Sr SEK 10Y Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar May Jun Aug Sep Finan. Sub NOK 10Y Non-finan. itraxx Europe (IG) (left axis) itraxx Xover (Non IG) (right axis) * Ask price ** Ask price * As of closing previous trading day 4 30 September

5 Disclosure This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S ( Danske Bank ). Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request. The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of highquality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors upon request. Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. Expected updates Danske Daily is updated on a daily basis. First date of publication Please see the front page of this research report for the first date of publication. Price-related data is calculated using the closing price from the day before publication September

6 General disclaimer This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e. financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect to any such financial instruments) ( Relevant Financial Instruments ). The research report has been prepared independently and solely on the basis of publicly available information that Danske Bank considers to be reliable. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this research report. The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date hereof. These opinions are subject to change, and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor of any other changes related to the information provided in this research report. This research report is not intended for retail customers in the United Kingdom or the United States. This research report is protected by copyright and is intended solely for the designated addressee. It may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, by any recipient for any purpose without Danske Bank s prior written consent. Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States This research report is distributed in the United States by Danske Markets Inc., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and subsidiary of Danske Bank, pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6 and related interpretations issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The research report is intended for distribution in the United States solely to "U.S. institutional investors" as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6. Danske Markets Inc. accepts responsibility for this research report in connection with distribution in the United States solely to U.S. institutional investors. Danske Bank is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In addition, the research analysts of Danske Bank who have prepared this research report are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA, but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-u.s. jurisdiction. Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting Danske Markets Inc. directly and should be aware that investing in non- U.S. financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of non-u.s. issuers may not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be subject to the reporting and auditing standards of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission September

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news. It is CPI day today with the release of CPI inflation for March in both the euro area

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news. It is CPI day today with the release of CPI inflation for March in both the euro area Investment Research General Market Conditions 17 April 2015 Danske Daily Market movers today It is CPI day today with the release of CPI inflation for March in both the euro area and the US. Euro-area

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 September 2015

Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 September 2015 Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 September 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers US retail sales is the main market mover today. We expect another solid increase in the core retail sales measure

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 November 2013

Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 November 2013 Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 November 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today US consumer confidence for November (Conference Board) is expected to rise slightly following a steep decline

More information

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 April 2016 Danske Daily Market Movers No major economic data out of Europe today and no rating reports on EU sovereign bonds tonight. Focus will be on a

More information

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news Investment Research General Market Conditions 30 May 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today In the euro area, the EU Commission is due to release its confidence indicators, which we expect to show some

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 12 February 2014

Investment Research General Market Conditions 12 February 2014 Investment Research General Market Conditions 2 February 24 Danske Daily Market movers today Euro-area industrial production is likely to show a decline in December following the strong gain of.8% m/m

More information

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news Investment Research General Market Conditions 7 April 24 Danske Daily Market movers today A quiet start to a quiet week. German industrial production for February is the main release today and is expected

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 25 November 2014

Investment Research General Market Conditions 25 November 2014 Investment Research General Market Conditions 25 November 2014 Danske Daily Market movers today Details on the German Q3 GDP numbers are released today and focus will be on how much private consumption

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 4 September 2013

Investment Research General Market Conditions 4 September 2013 Investment Research General Market Conditions 4 September 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today We expect no change to the final euro area service PMI, but look for some upside surprise in service PMI

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 28 November 2013

Investment Research General Market Conditions 28 November 2013 Investment Research General Market Conditions 28 November 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today Germany releases the first inflation data for November. The annual inflation rate (HICP) is expected to rise

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 September 2013

Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 September 2013 Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 September 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today Euro area September consumer confidence is due for release. We expect an aboveconsensus improvement. Market

More information

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news. Markets will continue to digest the outlook for Fed tapering.

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news. Markets will continue to digest the outlook for Fed tapering. Investment Research General Market Conditions 21 June 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today Markets will continue to digest the outlook for Fed tapering. There are no key figures of significance today.

More information

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market Investment Research General Market Conditions 12 April 2016 Danske Daily Market Movers Several Fed members are due to speak this week. Today, it is time for Harker, Lacker and Williams to deliver their

More information

Scandi markets today. Fixed income markets. FX markets

Scandi markets today. Fixed income markets. FX markets Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 October 2014 Danske Daily Market movers today Few things on the agenda today. No tier 1 data up for release so focus will again be on central bank talk

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 05 September 2013

Investment Research General Market Conditions 05 September 2013 Investment Research General Market Conditions 05 September 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today Today s main event is the ECB meeting this afternoon. In our view, there are fewer arguments for a rate

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 09 October 2015

Investment Research General Market Conditions 09 October 2015 Investment Research General Market Conditions 09 October 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers It's a very thin calendar today with only tier-2 data. French industrial production is expected to rebound 0.6%

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 03 December 2013

Investment Research General Market Conditions 03 December 2013 Investment Research General Market Conditions 03 December 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today In an otherwise busy week we have a very thin calendar today. In terms of data releases the market will focus

More information

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market News

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market News Investment Research General Market Conditions 29 February 26 Danske Daily Market Movers Euro area flash HICP inflation will be in focus today and we expect it to decline back to deflation territory due

More information

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market News

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market News Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 June 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers The ongoing negotiations between the Greek government and the creditor institutions continue to be in focus as no deal

More information

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news Investment Research General Market Conditions March 24 Danske Daily Market movers today We have a light data calendar again today with only second tier releases such as manufacturing production in the

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 January 2014

Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 January 2014 Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 January 2014 Danske Daily Market movers today In Germany the first GDP estimate for 2013 as a whole will be released and indirectly this should also give

More information

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market News

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market News Investment Research General Market Conditions 29 June 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers Market focus will continue to be on Greece, as no agreement was reached this weekend. The Greek government announced

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 October 2015

Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 October 2015 Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 October 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers Focus is on US CPI inflation for September. The headline figure should move into deflation but core CPI is expected

More information

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news Investment Research General Market Conditions 3 March 204 Danske Daily Market movers today In the data calendar the main event today is the release of February retail sales in the US. We expect headline

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 September 2013

Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 September 2013 Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 September 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today With the deadline looming on Monday focus in the US will continue to be on the negotiations about an agreement

More information

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market News

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market News Investment Research General Market Conditions 29 January 2016 Danske Daily Market Movers A lot of data to chew on today. Euro area kicks off with French and Spanish GDP data for Q4. France is expected

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 18 December 2015

Investment Research General Market Conditions 18 December 2015 Investment Research General Market Conditions 18 December 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers Following the recent very intense days with a rate hike in the US (Wednesday) and monetary policy meetings in Norway

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 November 2015

Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 November 2015 Investment Research General Market Conditions 26 November 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers With the US market closed due to Thanksgiving, today is set to be a relatively quiet day on the data front. At

More information

Flash Comment Euro area: resilient PMIs the recovery should continue

Flash Comment Euro area: resilient PMIs the recovery should continue Investment Research General Market Conditions 23 August 2016 Flash Comment Euro area: resilient PMIs the recovery should continue The euro area PMI figures for August were little changed compared with

More information

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news Investment Research General Market Conditions 12 December 2013 Danske Daily Market movers today ECB-president Mario Draghi will speak before the European Parliament in connection with a discussion of ECB

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 09 February 2015

Investment Research General Market Conditions 09 February 2015 Investment Research General Market Conditions 09 February 2015 Danske Daily Market movers today The combination of ECB s QE announcement, a weaker euro and low oil prices should lift investor confidence

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 01 February 2016

Investment Research General Market Conditions 01 February 2016 Investment Research General Market Conditions 01 February 2016 Danske Daily Market Movers Main event today is US ISM manufacturing. We look for a stabilisation of the index after several months of decline.

More information

DKK: Central Bank Preview

DKK: Central Bank Preview DKK: Central Bank Preview July 2012 Kasper Kirkegaard Senior Strategist +45 45 13 70 18 kaki@danskebank.com Lars Tranberg Rasmussen Senior Strategist +45 45 12 85 34 laras@danskebank.com Anders Møller

More information

IMM Positioning IMM positioning: Still room for short sterling positions

IMM Positioning IMM positioning: Still room for short sterling positions Investment Research General Market Conditions 25 February 213 IMM Positioning IMM positioning: Still room for short sterling positions The latest IMM data covers the week from 11 February to 19 February.

More information

Scandi Markets. Fixed Income Markets. FX Markets

Scandi Markets. Fixed Income Markets. FX Markets Investment Research General Market Conditions 28 January 2016 Danske Daily Market Movers Following the Fed meeting yesterday (see below) focus today will be on the weekly jobless claims. These have edged

More information

European Freight Forwarding Index

European Freight Forwarding Index European Freight Forwarding Index Volume development in January 14 Erik Bergöö erbe@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 36 Philip Levin phle@danskebank.dk +45 26 19 26 17 Important disclosures and certifications are

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 08 October 2015

Investment Research General Market Conditions 08 October 2015 Investment Research General Market Conditions 08 October 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers German trade balance for August could attract some attention after weak numbers for both factory orders and industrial

More information

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market News

Danske Daily. Market Movers. Selected Market News Investment Research General Market Conditions 14 August 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers The eurogroup meets at 15:00 CET today to discuss the third aid package for Greece. While the agreement is expected

More information

FOMC preview Fed set to keep door open for a June hike

FOMC preview Fed set to keep door open for a June hike Investment Research General Market Conditions 14 March 2016 FOMC preview Fed set to keep door open for a June hike We expect the Fed to keep the Fed funds target rate unchanged at 0.25-0.50% at this week

More information

US Labour Market Monitor July report set to attract much attention as both employment and growth have slowed in 2016

US Labour Market Monitor July report set to attract much attention as both employment and growth have slowed in 2016 Investment Research General Market Conditions 02 August 2016 US Labour Market Monitor July report set to attract much attention as both employment and growth have slowed in 2016 Jobs report preview We

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions 10 November 2015

Investment Research General Market Conditions 10 November 2015 Investment Research General Market Conditions 10 November 2015 Danske Daily Market Movers We do not expect any big changes to Norwegian CPI, see Scandi Markets. Market overview 07:30 1 day,% It s a quiet

More information

Nationalbanken preview and DKK update

Nationalbanken preview and DKK update Nationalbanken preview and DKK update Jens Nærvig Pedersen Analyst Danske Bank Markets jenpe@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 80 61 Anders Vestergård Fischer Analyst Danske Bank Markets afis@danskebank.dk +45 45

More information

European Freight Forwarding Index

European Freight Forwarding Index European Freight Forwarding Index 14 January 13 Erik Bergöö erbe@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 36 Søren Toft stof@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 53 Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 12

More information

Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk

Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 May 2015 Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk Meteorologists now agree that El Niño has arrived and project that it

More information

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news Investment Research General Market Conditions 5 March 24 Danske Daily Market movers today As tensions in the Russia/Ukraine conflict are easing, economic data will likely get some more attention again.

More information

Investment Research General Market Conditions Monday, 20 August 2012

Investment Research General Market Conditions Monday, 20 August 2012 Investment Research General Market Conditions Monday, 20 August 202 Danske Daily Key news The ECB appears to consider setting limits on sovereign yields by pledging unlimited bond purchases German politicians

More information

FOMC review Less confident Fed likely to stay on hold in March as well

FOMC review Less confident Fed likely to stay on hold in March as well Investment Research General Market Conditions 27 January 2016 FOMC review Less confident Fed likely to stay on hold in March as well As expected, the Fed funds target rate was unchanged at 0.25%-0.50%.

More information

Danske Daily. Today's key points

Danske Daily. Today's key points Investment research Danske Daily March 11, 2009 Editor: Allan von Mehren, +45 45128055, allan.von.mehren@danskebank.dk Today's key points US stocks rally over 6% on upbeat comments from Citigroup. Bond

More information

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news

Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news Investment Research General Market Conditions 14 May 2014 Danske Daily Market movers today Euro industrial production is expected to decline in March in line with the movement across countries. The lower

More information

Norges Bank Preview 2 November 2015

Norges Bank Preview 2 November 2015 Norges Bank Preview 2 November 2015 Rates unchanged; easing bias reiterated Frank Jullum Chief Analyst fju@danskebank.dk www.danskebank.com/research Arne Lohmann Rasmussen Chief Analyst arr@danskebank.dk

More information

Research US Fed on hold: uncertainty set to keep Fed sidelined

Research US Fed on hold: uncertainty set to keep Fed sidelined Investment Research General Market Conditions 11 February 2016 Research US Fed on hold: uncertainty set to keep Fed sidelined In our view, the uncertainty in financial markets and rising risk of a systemic

More information

FX Strategy NOK to stay weak into year-end; rally in 2015 on growth

FX Strategy NOK to stay weak into year-end; rally in 2015 on growth Investment Research General Market Conditions 11 November 2014 FX Strategy NOK to stay weak into year-end; rally in 2015 on growth Over the past month, we have been wrong on the NOK as oil prices and Norwegian

More information

Russia: Where to find new growth drivers?

Russia: Where to find new growth drivers? Russia: Where to find new growth drivers? Sanna Kurronen Economist +38 4 68 369 sanna.kurronen@danskebank.com 14 February 213 Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page of this report.

More information

Strategy German engine in headwind

Strategy German engine in headwind Investment Research General Market Conditions 9 October 2015 Strategy German engine in headwind German economic data have started to show weakness and, in our view, more softness is looming. This is because

More information

FX Forecast Update 16 December 2014

FX Forecast Update 16 December 2014 FX Forecast Update 16 December 2014 It s the oil, stupid! Thomas Harr Global Head of FICC Research Stefan Mellin Jens Nærvig Pedersen Kristoffer Lomholt Senior Analyst Senior Analyst Analyst Morten Helt

More information

FX Forecast Update 15 July 2015

FX Forecast Update 15 July 2015 FX Forecast Update 15 July 2015 Calm after the storm Thomas Harr Global Head of FICC Research Stefan Mellin Jens Nærvig Pedersen Kristoffer Lomholt Senior Analyst Senior Analyst Analyst Morten Helt Christin

More information

Norges Bank Preview 14 March 2016

Norges Bank Preview 14 March 2016 Norges Bank Preview 14 March 2016 A 25bp cut and a dovish bias, limited EUR/NOK upside Frank Jullum Chief Analyst +47 85 40 65 40 fju@danskebank.dk Jostein Tvedt Chief Analyst +47 23 13 91 84 jtv@danskebank.dk

More information

Research Commodities Four key factors to drive the aluminium market

Research Commodities Four key factors to drive the aluminium market Investment Research 22 May 2014 Research Commodities Four key factors to drive the aluminium market Aluminium price to edge higher in the second half of the year The aluminium price seems to have landed

More information

Emerging Markets: a safe haven from Brexit?

Emerging Markets: a safe haven from Brexit? Emerging Markets: a safe haven from Brexit? Jakob Ekholdt Christensen Head of Emerging Markets Research jakc@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 85 30 +45 30 58 4714 Vladimir Miklashevsky Senior Economist vlmi@danskebank.com

More information

Euro area growth outlook 2012

Euro area growth outlook 2012 Euro area growth outlook 212 A rising tide lifts all boats 2 December 211 Allan von Mehren Chief Analyst Head of International Macro +45 4512 855 alvo@danskebank.dk Five reasons why euro recession will

More information

Scandi Markets Ahead Inflation, positive flow factors for 10Y SGBs and new 11Y NGB

Scandi Markets Ahead Inflation, positive flow factors for 10Y SGBs and new 11Y NGB Investment Research General Market Conditions 10 March 2014 Scandi Markets Ahead Inflation, positive flow factors for 10Y SGBs and new 11Y NGB Factors such as index extension, pension flows and redemptions

More information

Strategy Chinese FX policy confusion

Strategy Chinese FX policy confusion Investment Research General Market Conditions 8 January 2016 Strategy Chinese FX policy confusion This year kicked off with global risk-off sentiment led by Chinese equities but also in Europe and the

More information

UK: Next week s agenda, December 15 Wrap-Up, Week of December 8

UK: Next week s agenda, December 15 Wrap-Up, Week of December 8 Macro Research Presentation December, 8 UK: Next week s agenda, December Wrap-Up, Week of December 8 The outlook for Britain's economy darkened on Thursday with news of a sharp contraction in manufacturing

More information

Daily FX Focus 14/9/2016

Daily FX Focus 14/9/2016 Important Risk Warning Currency Current Trend AUD EUR GBP NZD CAD JPY Support / Resistance vs USD.7357 /.765 AUD dropped with falling commodity price. AUDUSD once dropped to.7439 level. Market awaits August

More information

MARKET DRIVERS CURRENCIES FX Research 26.05.2010 Jyske Markets

MARKET DRIVERS CURRENCIES FX Research 26.05.2010 Jyske Markets Today s Comment The debt crisis in the euro zone is still very much leaving its mark across the financial markets, and risk aversion was once again the controlling factor during the trading session on

More information

Africa in context. Source: GDP and Population: Global Insight, September 2009, Area: World Bank 2008 GDP. Share ($Bn) (% of Total)

Africa in context. Source: GDP and Population: Global Insight, September 2009, Area: World Bank 2008 GDP. Share ($Bn) (% of Total) The Untold Story of the African Growth Miracle Lars Christensen Chief Analyst, Head of Emerging Markets Research +45 45 12 85 30 (direct) + 45 40 74 49 51 (mobile) larch@danskebank.dk March 2012 Africa

More information

Norges Bank Dilemma Too early to rule out monetary policy easing

Norges Bank Dilemma Too early to rule out monetary policy easing Investment Research General Market Conditions 11 August 2016 Norges Bank Dilemma Too early to rule out monetary policy easing Inflation has returned as a key factor for Norges Bank s rate setting which

More information

Strategy The end game

Strategy The end game Investment Research General Market Conditions 19 June 2015 Strategy The end game Crunch time in Greek crisis is getting near. An emergency euro leader summit will be held on Monday and we are reaching

More information

Renminbi Depreciation and the Hong Kong Economy

Renminbi Depreciation and the Hong Kong Economy Thomas Shik Acting Chief Economist thomasshik@hangseng.com Renminbi Depreciation and the Hong Kong Economy If the recent weakness of the renminbi persists, it is likely to have a positive direct impact

More information

EUR/SEK 101. We haven t seen the full effects from recent SEK strength yet. Spanish aid application may cause post-omt/esm-hangover.

EUR/SEK 101. We haven t seen the full effects from recent SEK strength yet. Spanish aid application may cause post-omt/esm-hangover. Trading Strategy 22 October, 2012 EUR/SEK 101 We haven t seen the full effects from recent SEK strength yet Riksbank on hold and escalating debt crisis are two potential negative triggers for EUR/SEK Spanish

More information

Daily FX Focus. 31-Dec-2014

Daily FX Focus. 31-Dec-2014 Australia FX Pick:AUD/USD Nov private sector credit rose 5.9% YoY, as expected. AUD/USD was consolidating in a range of 0.8122-0.8203 levels. AUD/USD s short-term support is at 0.8070, and resistance is

More information

FX Comment : return to risk on the margin, EUR continue to suffer vs USD on relative macro differences

FX Comment : return to risk on the margin, EUR continue to suffer vs USD on relative macro differences FX Comment : return to risk on the margin, EUR continue to suffer vs USD on relative macro differences June 31 2010 Anders Eklöf FX/MM strategist Swedbank FI/FX Research 1 FX this week Majors slowly return

More information

Monthly Market Snapshot

Monthly Market Snapshot ly Market Snapshot JANUARY 2016 Key insights The New Year has begun with widespread volatility in global markets, with equities posting steep negative returns in January. The main factors driving the market

More information

Fixed Income and FX Weekly

Fixed Income and FX Weekly Fixed Income and FX Weekly Rate hikes postponed, not called off 15 August, 2011 Bjørn Roger Wilhelmsen Chief Strategist, FX & Fixed Income +47 23 11 62 63 brw@first.no Good morning, In the Norwegian newspaper

More information

Danske Bank May 4th 2016 Economic Update,

Danske Bank May 4th 2016 Economic Update, Monthly update: 4 May 2016 Danske Bank Chief Economist, Twitter: angela_mcgowan Local job and investment announcements during April 2016: Over the month of April 2016 there were no new job announcements

More information

MARKET DRIVERS CURRENCIES FX Research Jyske Markets

MARKET DRIVERS CURRENCIES FX Research Jyske Markets Publisher: Jyske Markets FX Research Vestergade 816 DK8600 Silkeborg Analysts: Leander Dreyer 45 89 89 71 68 Leander@jyskebank.dk Kristian Foged Schmidt 45 89 89 70 96 Kristian.schmidt @jyskebank.dk Translation:

More information

Economic Data. October 01, 2015. September 30, 2015. October 01, 2015

Economic Data. October 01, 2015. September 30, 2015. October 01, 2015 Economic Data September 30, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous NZD Building Permits M/M Aug -4.90% 20.40% GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Sep 3 5 7 JPY Industrial Production M/M Aug P -0.50%

More information

FX This week: UK election outcome support Sterling, Norges bank to hike but some risk for dovish signals

FX This week: UK election outcome support Sterling, Norges bank to hike but some risk for dovish signals FX This week: UK election outcome support Sterling, Norges bank to hike but some risk for dovish signals May 3 2010 Anders Eklöf FX/MM strategist Swedbank FI/FX Research 1 EUR/USD some upside in play as

More information

Economic Data. October 30, 2015. October 29, 2015

Economic Data. October 30, 2015. October 29, 2015 Economic Data October 29, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% JPY Industrial Production M/M Sep 1.00% -0.60% -1.20% AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q3

More information

Introduction to the Nordic Non-Investment Grade Corporate Bond Market

Introduction to the Nordic Non-Investment Grade Corporate Bond Market Introduction to the Nordic Non-Investment Grade Corporate Bond Market Paul Gregory Head of Corporate Origination, Debt Capital Markets, Danske Bank 21 October 213 Credit Market Backdrop Still Attractive

More information

Economic Data Release Calendar May 29, 2016 - June 3, 2016

Economic Data Release Calendar May 29, 2016 - June 3, 2016 Economic Data Release Calendar May 29, 2016 - June 3, 2016 www.dailyfx.com research@dailyfx.com AUD 1.75% NZD 2.25% EUR 0.00% CAD 0.50% GBP 0.50% USD 0.50% CHF -0.75% JPY -0.10% Date Currency Event GMT

More information

Daily Market Watch Page 1 of 5 Market Watch 18 th June 2013

Daily Market Watch Page 1 of 5 Market Watch 18 th June 2013 Daily Market Watch Page 1 of 5 Market Watch 18 th June 2013 Local Market News Interest rates movement Average Weighted Prime Lending rate AWPLR 12.69 Average Weighted Deposit Rate AWDR 10.74 Average Weighted

More information

Economic Data Release Calendar July 31, 2016 - August 5, 2016

Economic Data Release Calendar July 31, 2016 - August 5, 2016 Economic Data Release Calendar July 31, 2016 - August 5, 2016 www.dailyfx.com research@dailyfx.com AUD 1.75% NZD 2.25% EUR 0.00% CAD 0.50% GBP 0.50% USD 0.50% CHF -0.75% JPY -0.10% Date Currency Event

More information

Morgonmötet 20 mars 2015

Morgonmötet 20 mars 2015 Trading Strategy Morgonmötet 20 mars 2015 Claes Måhlén, +46 (0)8-46 345 35, clma02@handelsbanken.se Pierre Carlsson, +46 (0)8-46 346 17, pica01@handelsbanken.se Nyheter Grekland: Kommer att redovisa reformlista

More information

Yield Forecast Update Long bond yields bottoming out

Yield Forecast Update Long bond yields bottoming out Investment Research General Market Conditions 15 August 2014 Yield Forecast Update Long bond yields bottoming out Review Quick links The trend for lower long bond yields has continued among rising geopolitical

More information

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Lack of follow-though. EUR/USD has failed

More information

Corporate Office: KUNVARJI, B Wing, Siddhivinayak Towers, Nr. D.A.V. School, Next to Kataria House, Off S. G. Road, Makarba, Ahmedabad - 51

Corporate Office: KUNVARJI, B Wing, Siddhivinayak Towers, Nr. D.A.V. School, Next to Kataria House, Off S. G. Road, Makarba, Ahmedabad - 51 Corporate Office: KUNVARJI, B Wing, Siddhivinayak Towers, Nr. D.A.V. School, Next to Kataria House, Off S. G. Road, Makarba, Ahmedabad - 51 USD/INR: INR ended the week with depreciation as there was seen

More information

Summer in Sweden A review of economic events. Torbjörn Isaksson Andreas Wallström 16 August 2016

Summer in Sweden A review of economic events. Torbjörn Isaksson Andreas Wallström 16 August 2016 Summer in Sweden A review of economic events Torbjörn Isaksson Andreas Wallström 16 August 2016 1 Global drop in yields World trade has stagnated. Indicators do not suggest an improvement any time soon.

More information

CIO Flash U.S. Fed tapering

CIO Flash U.S. Fed tapering CIO Flash U.S. Fed tapering 19 December 2013 The art of tapering without spoiling markets (I) Final decision and first reaction Taper light, with strengthened forward guidance The Federal Open Market Committee

More information

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Bouncing higher. EUR/USD recovery rally

More information

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report EUR / USD Remains below its declining trendline.

More information

Morgonmötet 10 juni 2016

Morgonmötet 10 juni 2016 Trading Strategy Morgonmötet 10 juni 2016 Claes Måhlén, +46 (0)8-46 345 35, clma02@handelsbanken.se Pierre Carlsson, +46 (0)8-46 346 17, pica01@handelsbanken.se Andreas Skogelid, +46 (0)8-701 56 80, ansk03@handelsbanken.se

More information

Daily FX & Market Commentary

Daily FX & Market Commentary Market Recap U.S. stocks declined: The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 2,165 as results from companies including Intel disappointed. U.S. data remain positive: Initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped by 1,000

More information

New Safe-Haven Currencies in a Post-Crisis World

New Safe-Haven Currencies in a Post-Crisis World Foreign Exchange Research New Safe-Haven Currencies in a Post-Crisis World Jens Nordvig Managing Director Head of G FX Strategy May See the disclosure appendix for analyst certification and important disclosures.

More information

Vasakronan Q1 16: Stable performance and continued growth

Vasakronan Q1 16: Stable performance and continued growth Investment Research 28 April 2016 Vasakronan Q1 16: Stable performance and continued growth Vasakronan delivered a solid set of numbers for the first quarter of 2016. Margins remained high and credit metrics

More information

Date 02.12.2010. Fundamentals have turned NOK supportive. growth in 4Q and 2011 as well. policy outlook: Despite low inflation, we expect

Date 02.12.2010. Fundamentals have turned NOK supportive. growth in 4Q and 2011 as well. policy outlook: Despite low inflation, we expect NOK Strategy Date 02.12.20 NOK Strategy Fundamentals have turned NOK supportive In trade weighted terms, the NOK exchange has depreciated somewhat over the summer, mainly reflecting markets downgrading

More information

FX from a quant perspective Presentation for ECB FXCG. Friday, 07 November 2014

FX from a quant perspective Presentation for ECB FXCG. Friday, 07 November 2014 FX from a quant perspective Presentation for ECB FXCG Friday, 07 November 2014 G10 FX in 2014 a traffic light perspective Is market activity returning or is it another false dawn? Are central banks doing

More information

Morgonmötet 22 mars 2012

Morgonmötet 22 mars 2012 Trading Strategy 22 March, 2012 Morgonmötet 22 mars 2012 Claes Måhlén, +46 (0)8-46 345 35, clma02@handelsbanken.se Nyheter Kina: Flash PMI (HSBC) sjönk till 48,1 i mars från 49,6 i februari Draghi: Det

More information

Bond markets vote for global recovery

Bond markets vote for global recovery Bond markets vote for global recovery Weekly Market View 11 May 2015 1 % Euro area recovery, oil rebound lead to bond sell-off German bund yields recovered from record low levels, leading a surge in global

More information

Economic Data. November 20, 2015. November 19, 2015

Economic Data. November 20, 2015. November 19, 2015 Economic Data November 19, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement NZD PPI Inputs Q/Q Q3 1.60% 0.10% -0.30% NZD PPI Outputs Q/Q Q3 1.30% 0.20% -0.20% JPY Trade

More information