PRESS RELEASE. Hungary s balance of payments: 2009 Q1. 30 June 2009

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1 3 June 29 PRESS RELEASE Hungary s balance of payments: 29 Q1 Consistent with its schedule for quarterly releases and revisions of statistical data, on 3 June 29 the MNB is publishing 29 Q1 balance of payments statistics for the first time, together with revised data for 28 Q1 Q4. 1 In 29 Q1, Hungary s external financing capacity (i.e. the combined surplus on its current and capital accounts) amounted to EUR 272 million (HUF 95 billion). This measure of external financing has not registered a positive value since The surplus for 29 Q1 was accounted for by improvements in the real economic and income balances, accompanying the deterioration in economic performance, and by the substantial amounts of EU transfers. After adjusting for seasonal effects, Hungary s external financing requirement was EUR 1,78 million or 4.8% of GDP, an improvement of 1.8 percentage points relative to the previous quarter. Chart Q1.22 Net financing capacity in (left scale) and per GDP (right scale).22 Q Q Q Q Q Q1.28 Current and capital account balance, seasonally adjusted Current and capital account balance, trend Net financing capacity per GDP, seasonally adjusted (right).28 percent With the release of quarterly figures, data for each quarter of 28 are now available. However, in the Bank s treatment the individual quarterly figures do not add up to the annual total, as direct investment income data are based on estimates. Accordingly, 28 data on the Bank s website are only included in the quarterly series. The Bank will release 28 balance of payments data in September 29, consistent with its data release calendar.

2 Table 1 Current account balance and net external financing capacity Euro million Q1 Q2 Q4 Q1-Q4 Q1 1. Real economic transaction Export Import Goods Export Import Services Travel, net export import Other services, net export import Income and current transfers Income Income on debt Income on equity Compensation of employees Current transfers, net Current account balance Capital account Non debt creating financing Abroad Equity capital Reinvested earnings In Hungary Equity capital Reinvested earnings Portfolio investment, equity securities Debt creating finance Debt creating finance excluding FDI other capital Assets Liabilities FDI other capital Abroad Assets Liabilities In Hungary Assets Liabilities Net external financing capacity 7.1. Net external financing capacity (CA and Capital account) Financial account balance (Financial account balance and reserves) Difference (Net errors and omissions)

3 Table 2 Balance of payments and financing capacity items - seasonally adjusted data* Q1 Q2 Q4 Q1 1. Real economic transactions, net (Goods and services) Export Import Goods, net Export Import Services, net Travel, net export import Other services, net export import Income and current transfers, net Income, net Income on debt, net Income on equity, net Compensation of employees, net Current transfers, net Current account balance, net Capital account, net Net external financing capacity * The sub-balance outcomes are directly seasonally adjusted. Consequently, the seasonally adjusted current account balance outcome cannot be reproduced from the seasonally adjusted data of the sub-accounts. Developments in the components of external financing capacity In 29 Q1, the seasonally adjusted current account deficit amounted to EUR 1,712 million. Seasonally not adjusted, the deficit amounted to EUR 591 million. The sharp decline in deficit was mainly attributable to a high, EUR 686 million, surplus on goods trade, according to seasonally adjusted data. This improvement reflected further declines in exports and imports of goods: the outcome for 29 Q1 was broadly comparable with that for 26 Q1. In euro terms, exports and imports fell by 14% and 21% respectively. 3

4 Chart 2 24 Goods and Services Exports and Imports I. 23. I. 24. I. 25. I. 26. I. 27. I. 28. I. IV. Exports Exports sa Imports Imports sa The seasonally adjusted surplus on services amounted to EUR 293 million in 29 Q1. Travel revenue and expenditure both were lower in 29 Q1 compared with the previous quarter. The seasonally adjusted travel surplus amounted to EUR 358 million, broadly unchanged from the previous quarter. Other services registered a seasonally adjusted EUR 84 million deficit, associated with declining revenue and expenditure. Chart Goods and services Q Q Q Q Q Q Q goods, unadjusted services, unadjusted goods, trend goods, seasonally adjusted services, seasonally adjusted services, trend 4

5 In the income account, expenditure fell more strongly than revenue, resulting in an improvement in the balance: the seasonally adjusted deficit on income on debt amounted to EUR 742 million and negative income on equity amounted to EUR 1,522 million. 2 Chart 4 Income on debt and income on equity Q Q Q Q Q Q Q income on debt original series income on debt trend data income on equity seasonally adjusted series income on debt seasonally adjusted series income on equity original series income on equity trend data The surplus on current transfers amounted to EUR 58 million in 29 Q1. Looking at transactions with the European Union in the period, the balance of current transfers showed a EUR 244 million surplus, and transactions recorded as capital transfers showed a EUR 862 million surplus. On balance, capital transfers to and from EU institutions showed a EUR 1,16 million surplus. Inward and outward non-debt capital transactions showed a net inflow of EUR 159 million in 29 Q1. Within this figure, the value of outward direct investment transactions in equity capital by Hungarian residents amounted to EUR 82 million and inward transactions by non-residents amounted to EUR 2 million. Reinvested earnings on direct investment by Hungarian residents and non-residents, respectively, increased the value of direct investment by EUR 169 million and EUR 456 million. 3 Portfolio investment transactions in equity securities showed a net outflow of EUR 246 million. Here, purchases of shares abroad by Hungarian residents amounted to EUR 38 million and purchases of Hungarian shares by non-residents amounted to EUR 134 million. The balance of debt generating financing was EUR 258 million in 29 Q1. Within this figure, other capital transactions recorded in foreign direct investment flows by Hungarian residents abroad showed an inflow of EUR 23 million and other capital transactions by non-residents in Hungary showed an outflow of EUR 12 million. 2 After-tax foreign direct investment recorded within non-debt income for 28 and 29 are estimates. The MNB will publish actual 28 data on 3September Reinvested earnings are the difference between after-tax profit and declared dividends. After-tax profits for 28 and 29 are estimates. Consequently, despite the fact that dividends are not reports-based, reinvested earnings are also estimates. Movements in the EUR/HUF exchange rate in the first three months of the year strongly influenced data expressed in euro terms. 5

6 Reserves and debt Central bank foreign exchange reserves amounted to EUR 27.9 billion at end-march 29. Hungary s net foreign debt, excluding other capital recorded under direct investment and financial derivatives, amounted to EUR 51.6 billion at the end of March 29 (5.6% as a percentage of GDP). Table 3 Foreign assets and liabilities of Hungary Euro million Q1 op.poz.** Q1 Q2 Q4 Q1 1. Assets International reserves Direct investment * Portfolio investment Financial derivatives Other foreign assets Liabilities Direct investment * Portfolio investment Financial derivatives Other foreign liabilities Net foreign liabilities (2-1) Memorandum:*** 4. Gross foreign debt (excluding direct investment other capital) General government and Central bank Private sector Net foreign debt (excluding direct investment other capital) General government and Central bank Private sector * Assets and liabilities are grouped separately within the directional breakdown of investment. ** Opening stocks derived from the new data collection system. Details on the effects of the methodological change on the published data are available in Appendix 2 of the 28 Q1 statistical release. *** Equity capital and financial derivatives are not included in debt, consistent with the IMF s External Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers and Users. 6

7 Chart 4 Net foreign debt of Hungary 22-29* euro billions Q1 23Q1 24Q1 Private sector 25Q1 26Q1 27Q1 28Q1 General Government and Central euro billion Bank * Equity capital and financial derivatives are not included in debt, consistent with the IMF s External Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers and Users. 29Q1 * * * * * In this press release, Hungary s balance of payments is presented excluding data on special purpose entities (SPEs), in accordance with past practice. However, Hungary s balance of payments and external balance sheet both excluding and including SPE data are available on the Bank s website. The MNB will release Hungary s balance of payments and international investment position data for 29 Q2, as well as the annual data for 28 on 3 September 29. Detailed tables: Balance of payments Notes Methodological notes Charts: Chart pack Q&A: Questions and answers MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK STATISTICS One of the primary statutory duties of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank is to collect and publish statistical information. The MNB makes available for users statistical data compiled in accordance with international standards on a regular basis. The Quarterly Report on Inflation and the Report on Financial Stability, the Bank s periodical publications, contain comprehensive analyses of underlying economic processes and are accessible at 7

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