THE ITALIAN DAIRY INDUSTRY
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1 THE ITALIAN DAIRY INDUSTRY Parma, October 17th 2011 Dr. Pietro Modiano Chairman Dr. Andrea Zaghi Project Manager
2 Summary 1.Introduction 2.The farm stage 3.The manufacturing stage 4.The market 5.Conclusions 2
3 The world economy, IMF September Report: forecasts and (mostly downward) revisions World (-0.3) 4.0 (-0.5) US (-1.0) 1.8 (-0.9) UK (-0.4) 1.6 (-0.7) Euro area (-0,4) 1,1 (-0,6) Germany (-0.5) 1.4 (-0,7) France (-0.4) 1,4 (-0.6) Italy (-0,4) 0.3 (-1,0) Japan (0.2) 2.3 (-0.6) China (-0.1) 9.0 (-0.5) 3
4 Italian firms have done well in international markets, better than other Eurozone countries 16,0 Exports of goods January-July 2011 (y-o-y % change) 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 Italy Germany France 4
5 Italian private consumption: weak and still below pre-crisis peak Households' consumption, in volume terms 2005q1=1 1,12 1,1 1,08 Germany Spain France Italy 1,06 1,04 1,02 1 0,98 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q
6 ...while the saving rate fell to historicallly low level, well below Germany and France 0,18 Households' saving rate (as % of disposable income) 0,17 0,16 0,15 0,14 0,13 Germany France Italy 0,12 0,11 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 6
7 What s behind the saving rate fall? Households purchasing power shrinks in 2008q2-2010q1, stagnates thereafter; consumption improves since 2010q2, but weakening in the pipeline 1,03 Italian houseolds' purchasing power and consumption (2005=1) 1,02 1,01 1 0,99 0,98 0,97 Purchasing power Consumption 0,96 0,95 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q
8 Weakeness of food consumption expenditures 1,06 Households' consumption in food and non-food goods 1,04 1,02 1 Non food 0,98 Food, alcohol, tobacco Total 0,96 0,94 8
9 Summary 1.Introduction 2.The farm stage 3.The manufacturing stage 4.The market 5.Conclusions 9
10 Billions Milk agricultural value 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0, Cow's and buffalo's milk Sheep's and goat's milk (,000 ) 2010 Cow s and buffalo s milk 4,039,768 Sheep s and goat s milk 500,646 Total milk 4,540,413 10% OF ITALIAN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION VALUE Source: Istat 10
11 Dairy farms (2010) Farms Heads (,000) Heads/farm COWS 40,199 1, BUFFALOES* 2, SHEEP* 51,032 5, GOATS* 22, * Only adult female animals. (2009) Milk production (,000 t) COWS 11,364 BUFFALOES 195 SHEEP 600 GOATS 34 TOTAL MILK PRODUCED AT FARM STAGE: 12,193,000 t Source: Istat, Eurostat, Agea, Assolatte, Oss. latte. 11
12 Geographical distribution of heads SHEEP COWS < 100,000 heads 100, > 500,000 heads 500, > 1,000,000 heads > 1,000,000 heads < 50,000 heads 50, > 100,000 heads 100, > 200,000 heads > 200,000 heads BUFFALOES < 5,000 heads 5, > 10,000 heads 10, > 50,000 heads > 50,000 heads Dairy cows breeding is developed in Northern Italy (Lombardy, Emilia- Romagna, Veneto and Piedmont above all), while buffaloes, sheep s and goats breeders are more present in Southern Italy (Campania above all for the first one and Sardinia for the other two). GOATS < 10,000 heads 10, > 50,000 heads 50, > 100,000 heads > 100,000 heads Source: Istat 12
13 Cow s milk farms: a significant restructuring ,0 250,0 200,0 150, Farm net income ( ) ,0 50,0 0, Farms (left side) Average marketed milk per farm (t) (right side) Specialist milk Total Over the last decade, the number of specialized farms producing cow s milk has experienced a significant restructuring from around 75,000 units in 2000 to 40,000 in 2010 while the average production per farm has increased from 140 t/farm to 270 t/farm. At the same time, the farm net income of agricultural output per business entity is almost three times that reported for agriculture as a whole (respectively, 74,000 and 28,000 per farm) Source: Agea. 13
14 1999/ /01 Cow s milk: marketed production and national quota 2001/ / / / / / / / / Marketed milk (,000 t) National milk quotas* (,000 t) * Deliveries to dairies + direct farm sells. For the first time, Italian farmers did not exceed their national milk quota. Provisional data confirm the same for milk campaign 2010/11. Eu quotas regime is going to end in 2015; after 2015, Eu farmers will have no productive restrictions. The most efficient breeders will be able to benefit from this new situation. Source: Agea. 14
15 gen-05 apr-05 lug-05 ott-05 gen-06 apr-06 lug-06 ott-06 gen-07 apr-07 lug-07 ott-07 gen-08 apr-08 lug-08 ott-08 gen-09 apr-09 lug-09 ott-09 gen-10 apr-10 lug-10 ott-10 gen-11 apr-11 Cow s milk prices and volatility 46,00 Italian average producer milk price( /hl) 44,00 42,00 40,00 38,00 36,00 34,00 32,00 In the last five years, the dairy sector has experienced (both at national and international level) a period of considerable turbulence that has resulted in extreme price volatility. The farmers affected by these conditions have experienced substantial difficulties. If this volatility becomes the standard, it is likely that the businesses and individuals in this industry will further seek to improve efficiency, which may result in a market exit acceleration of those who are less efficiently organized. Source: Ismea. 15
16 45,00 40,00 35,00 30,00 25,00 20,00 Average farms size and milk prices comparison (2008) Dairy Milk yield cows/farm* (kg/head) Italy 48 6,220 Germany 48 7,142 Spain 43 6,993 France 46 6,303 United Kingdom 116 7,002 Total EU ,524 * Based on farms included in EU Fadn panel. /100 lt Lombardy Bavaria Rhône Alpes Italian dairy farms have reached a dimension in terms of heads similar to other main EU partners, except the UK; instead, in terms of average milk yield, there is still a gap. Italian farmers receive for their milk an higher price than Germans and French, due mainly to the very relevant presence of PDO food chains and their higher quality requirements. Source: Fadn, Clal. 16
17 Summary 1.Introduction 2.The farm stage 3.The manufacturing stage 4.The market 5.Conclusions 17
18 Dairy manufacturing turnover % OF ITALIAN FOOD MANUFACTURING TURNOVER Dairy manufacturing turnover (bln ) In 2010 the turnover was around 14.8 billions euros. Dairy manufacturers were the first among food manufacturers. Source: Federalimentare. 18
19 Dairy manufacturing productions 2009 Delivered quantities (,000 t) % on farm production Cow's milk 10, % Sheep's milk % Goat's milk % Buffalo's milk % Total Italian milk 11, % Imported liquid milk 1,646 Available milk for manufacturing 12,844 Available milk: final destination (%) Cheeses 71% Yogurt 2% Drinking milk 21% Other products 6% Main products (,000 t) Cheeses 1,178 Drinking milk 2,690 Yogurt 295 Butter 107 Source: Istat, Assolatte. 19
20 Italian PDO cheeses Name Manufactured Production (t) Production (t) milk (t) Manufactured milk (t) Grana Padano 158,326 2,234, ,326 2,303,009 Parmigiano Reggiano 113,436 1,669, ,221 1,753,741 Gorgonzola 47, ,454 48, ,000 Mozzarella di bufala campana 33, ,203 36, ,000 Pecorino Romano 26, ,324 27, ,586 Asiago 23, ,722 22, ,790 Taleggio 8,497 62,800 8,699 66,200 Provolone Valpadana 8,799 86,660 7,730 76,340 Montasio 7,691 70,675 6,871 64,883 Others PDO 21, ,061 20, ,205 TOTAL PDO cheeses 449,894 5,226, ,102 5,373,754 PDO cheeses represent around 38% of total Italian cheeses, absorb 47% of total Italian milk and account for 55% of total global turnover of PDO/PGI Italian products. Source: Assolatte, Istat and Ig Consortia. 20
21 Dairy manufacturing units Dairy manufacturing units Agricultural cooperative 593 Collection centres The number of companies involved in milk collecting and processing (2,149 in 2009) has not experienced a significant decrease over the last decade; indeed a deep process of restructuring had occurred in the 80s and 90s. Farms 69 Dairies Source: Istat. 21
22 Average dairies size (% on total dairies) 5,000 t or less From 5,001 to 20,000 t Dairies by volume of milk treated From From 20,001 to 50,001 to 50,000 t 100,000 t From 100,001 to 300,000 t Over 300,000 t Italy 78% 15% 4% 1% 1% 0% Germany 34% 9% 10% 12% 19% 16% Spain 84% 9% 2% 2% 2% 1% France 59% 16% 8% 6% 7% 3% United Kingdom 85% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% The average size of the dairies is still not very large: more than 78% of dairies collect 5,000 t milk or less while in Germany and France the figures stand at 34% and 59% respectively. Source: Eurostat. 22
23 Top 10 dairy companies Rk. Turnover (,000 ) Company Gruppo Lactalis Italia Spa (4) 1,287,997 2 Granlatte - Granarolo Co-operative 917,957 3 Parmalat (1) (2) Spa 820,548 4 Kraft Foods Italia (3) Spa 683,465 5 Danone Italia Spa 490,686 6 Consorzio Virgilio Co-operative 398,498 7 Zanetti Spa 262,637 8 Newlat (3) Spa 260,300 9 Sterilgarda Spa 235, Nuova Castelli (3) Spa 232,163 (1) Only turnover in Italy. (2) In 2011 it has been taken over by Lactalis Group. (3) The reported turnover is composed by dairy and other products. (4) Spa- Joint Stock Company. All the main companies (co-operatives and spa) are located mostly in Northern Italy and are specialized both in industrial, brand-name products and in the main PDO products (above all Grana Padano and Parmigiano-Reggiano). Co-operatives register average sales revenues that are higher than those of the spa companies ( 6.9 million vs. 4.4 million). Source: Aida, Italian agricultural co-operation observatory. 23
24 Summary 1.Introduction 2.The farm stage 3.The manufacturing stage 4.The market 5.Conclusions 24
25 2009 The dairy value chain The Agricultural stage 4.5 bln. Imported liquid milk 0.5 bln bln. The manufacturing stage 14.4 bln. The commercial stage (bln. ) Retail 12.3 HoReCa 7.9 Export bln. Final value generated by the Italian dairy industry 21.7 bln. Source: Istat, Osservatorio Latte. 25
26 Italian households consumptions Pork meat 9,3% Beef meat 7,0% Bread and other cereals' products 14,0% Other food and beverage s 18,2% Food purchases (2010, %) Poultry meat 2,5% Milk and dairy products 19,1% Fish products 8,0% Vegetables 10,0% Fruits 6,7% Olive oil Wines 3,1% 2,3% Final consumption of milk, cheese and eggs by households (mln. ) Constant prices Current prices Milk and dairy products amounts at 19% of total Italian households food purchases. In terms of real value, the final indoor consumption has decreased for the last ten years. Source: Istat, Ismea. 26
27 Millions Millions Millions External trade Total dairy Import Export Milk Cheese Import Export Import Italy has a clear deficit in total dairy external trade. But, while the milk shows a deep deficit, the cheese sector has experienced a surplus in value (even if not in volume) in the last two years. Export Source: Istat 27
28 Italian cheese export: top destinations and PDO relevance (mln. ) FRANCE GERMANY UNITED STATES UNITED KINGDOM SWITZERLAND BELGIUM SPAIN AUSTRIA NETHERLANDS LUXEMBOURG OTHER COUNTRIES TOTAL 1, , ,658.8 Export 2010 (mln. ) PDO cheeses Other cheeses 1, % 50% 100% The main destinations for Italian cheeses are developed and high income countries. Moreover, almost 70% of exported cheeses in value are PDO cheeses. Source: Istat, Ismea 28
29 Forecasted consumption of cheese Forecasted consumption of cheese in developed countries (,000 t) Forecasted consumption of cheese in emerging countries (,000 t) % % % % % Usa Eu China Brazil Russia In the next years world consumption of cheese and other dairy products is forecasted to grow both in developed countries and in emerging economies. Source: Fapri. 29
30 Summary 1.Introduction 2.The farm stage 3.The manufacturing stage 4.The market 5.Conclusions 30
31 Conclusions: a SWOT analysis on Italian dairy industry STRENGTHS High quality of productions (PDO above all); Great importance of the industry in agrifood sector; Important role of co-operative businesses; Italian farms size similar to other EU partners; High appeal of Made in Italy mark on international market. OPPORTUNITIES Increase of dairy consumptions both in developed and in emerging economies; Possible liberalization of world trade in food and beverages products. WEAKNESSES Insufficient availability of national raw material (liquid milk); Small dimensions for many dairies; Low bargaining power with retailing chains; Higher productions costs and prices than other EU partners. THREATS High volatility of international prices; Impact of the end of EU quotas regime on farms; Pressure of imports from countries with lower production costs than Italy. 31
32 Conclusions: the main issues The Italian dairy industry is one of the most important industries among national ones and the most important one among food & beverage industries. The agricultural stage has experienced a deep process of restructuration in the last ten years. High market volatility and EU quotas regime phasing out could further improve business efficiency, putting out of market some more farms. The manufacturing stage is composed by many small and medium dairies and some big enterprises, both private multinationals (mainly with foreign headquarters) and co-operatives, owned by Italian farmers. The Italian dairy industry as a whole imports raw materials like liquid milk and exports high value added products like PDO cheeses, which represent about 50% of total exported cheeses. Indeed, although in terms of quantities imports of cheese are higher than exports, in terms of value Italy has a surplus. The main destinations are developed and high income countries. In the next years the new emerging economies will be an important chance of growth. 32
33 Thank you for your attention Agri-food Business Unit Nomisma Spa Strada Maggiore, Bologna 33
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