SOUTH CHINA TODAY MARKET OVERVIEW NEWS COMMENTS. HK to suspend the CIES, affecting HK stock market
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1 SOUTH CHINA TODAY 15 JANUARY 2015 MARKET OVERVIEW HK to suspend the CIES, affecting HK stock market The Hong Kong stock market is expected to open lower today following the decline in overseas markets. The World Bank lowered its global growth forecast, putting the global stock markets under pressure. Besides, Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying announced in his annual Policy Address yesterday that the Capital Investment Entrant Scheme (CIES) will be suspended starting from today, which is expected to put the Hong Kong stock market under pressure. MAJOR MARKET INDICES Change PER# Close point % X Hong Kong & China HSI 24, HSCEI 12, SHSECI 3, SZSECI 1, CSI 300 3, USA Dow 17, S&P 500 2, NASDAQ 4, EUROPE FTSE 100 6, CAC 40 4, DAX 9, ASIA PACIFIC Nikkei , STI 3, KOSPI 1, #Blooomberg consensus NEWS COMMENTS Jin Jiang (2006) acquires Groupe Du Louvre for over HK$10bn Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels announced its plan to acquire Groupe Du Louvre for EUR bn (approximately HK$ bn). Groupe Du Louvre is a global hotel chain operating 1,115 hotels worldwide, of which 970 hotels are in Europe. It recorded a net loss of EUR22.5m in the last financial year. Although Jin Jiang is likely to turn around Groupe Du Louvre, which is positive to the long-term development of the group, the turnaround is expected to take time to be accomplished. Hence the share price of Jin Jiang is not anticipated to rally substantially in the near-term. Kaiser Choi :(852) : kaiser.choi@sctrade.com EXCHANGE RATE Net chg Currency Last 1d 1m US$ to HK$ US$ to RMB US$ to Jap US$ to AU$ US$ to BP US$ to EUR LAST PUBLISHED Hon Kwok Land (0160) secures Kwai Chung site for HK$686m Hon Kwok Land outbid nine other developers, winning a commercial site on Kin Chuen Street, Kwai Chung at HK$3,012 per sq ft, which was at the lower end of market expectations. Management of Hon Kwok Land plans to develop the site into offices and a warehouse for logistics purposes, and completion is expected in As the site is surrounded by industrial buildings, the land did not fetch a high price. If the project can be sold at ~HK$8,000 per sq ft. on a GFA basis, the developer should be able to attain reasonable profit. Michael Tam, CFA :(852) : michael.tam@sctrade.com SALES Hong Kong Tony NG (852) Alan LEE (852) Carina CHIU (852) London Peter WONG (44) (0) Michael Hope-Lewis (44) (0) Johnny WONG (44) (0) Important: please refer to our disclosures and disclaimers at the end of this report.
2 HSI FUTURES Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Closing 24,067 24,076 Change Premium/discount to spot Volume 58, Open Interest 96,381 3,736 High 24,230 24,205 Low 24,001 24,020 Fair value HSI Ex-dividend HSCEI FUTURES Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Closing 12,002 12,023 Change Premium/discount to spot Volume 69,027 2,751 Open Interest 226,594 16,416 High 12,079 12,090 Low 11,942 11,963 Fair value HSCEI Ex-dividend HANG SENG FUTURES & OPTIONS Net 14 January 2015 Gross Net Change T/O Deal HSI Futures 105,293 35, ,692 38,098 HSI Call Options 97,689 81,429 2,163 13,141 5,253 HSI Put Options 117,684 98,427 2,895 16,493 6, HSI Market Total 320, ,352 5,459 90,326 50,001 26,000 24,000 22,000 HANG SENG INDEX 20 MAV 50 MAV 20,000 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Gross:Either the total number of long or the total number of short positions in a contract held by all participants in the market Net: Either the total number of net long or the total number of net short position in a contract held by all market participants. it is calculated by netting the long and short positions in a particular contract held in all its accounts by each participant and then sum all net long or net short across all participants in the market. T/ O: The number of contracts traded in the market Deal: The number of matched orders in the market Source: HKEx VOLUME FILTER Stock Company Price Change Volume Change code HK$ HK$ % m shares % 874 Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical China Power New Energy Development Jiangxi Copper Sinotrans Shipping China South City China State Construction Int'l Trinity Degrees Int'l Kingdee Int'l Software China Resources Gas The Volume Filter is a tool to spot stocks where there is an increase in trading activity, which may not always be apparent by a change in the share price. The last column in the table shows the percentage change in volume on the last trading day, relative to the average for that stock over the preceding month. The table shows the top 10 gainers by volume change, drawn from the members of Hang Seng Composite Index. HK STOCKS ADR LAST CLOSING (MOST ACTIVE) Stock Company Closing (HK$) Rel to HK closing code HKEx ADR HK$ % 883 CNOOC Ping An Insurance PetroChina Sinopec Cheung Kong China Mobile BOC HK CCB Hutchison Whampoa Hang Seng Bank Stock Company Closing (HK$) Rel to HK closing code HKEx ADR HK$ % 1398 ICBC Tencent China Unicom SHK Properties Bank of China MTR Corp China Shenhua Energy HSBC Holdings China Life Insurance Chalco
3 UPCOMING IPO IPO Stock Company Listing Price Mkt Cap Sponsor Business code date HK$ HK$m 6161 Target Insurance Today listing CLC Int l Insurance group offering motor insurance 1993 Asiaray Media 1 Today listing ,640 BOCI Out-of-home media company 1362 SIS Mobile Today listing Haitong Mobile phones distributor 6822 King's Flair Int l 16/01/ Baron Global Financial Kitchenware products provider (Subscribed: 6.07X ) 8139 Renheng Technology H* 16/01/ South China Capital Research & development, production (By placing) & sales of bentonite fine chemicals *Listing by placing or introduction Sources::Bloomberg, Prospectus, South China Research BOND/ CURRENCIES & COMMODITIES Exchange Month Last Close +/- Change Volume Last Highest Last Lowest 14 day US$ US$ % US$ US$ RSI WTI Crude Oil Futures NYMEX Feb , Gold 100 OZ Futures NYMEX Feb-15 1, , , , Silver Futures NYMEX Mar , Copper Futures NYMEX Mar , Platinum Futures NYMEX Apr-15 1, , , , USA 10 Yr Note Futures CBOT Mar ,988, USA Long Bond CBOT Mar , Corn Futures CBOT Mar , Wheat Futures CBOT Mar , Soybean Futures CBOT Jan-15 1, , Australia Dollar CME Mar , New Zealand Dollar CME Mar , Canadian Dollar CME Mar , Pounds CME Mar , Euro CME Mar , Yen CME Mar ,
4 H SHARES DISCOUNT TO A SHARES (H shares) Company H share s YTD (A shares) A share s H discount Stock Code closing HK$ Chg % Stock Code closing RMB to *A shares % 1057 Zhejiang Shibaox Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Luoyang Glass Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric First Tractor Northeast Electric Yanzhou Coal Mining Kunming Machine Sinopec Yizheng Chemical Fibre Shanghai Electric Jingwei Textile Machinery Tianjin Capital Environmental Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical Chongqing Iron & Steel China Molybdenum Dalian Port China Shipping Container Lines Nanjing Panda Electronics Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Metallurgical Corp of China Beijing North Star Maanshan Iron & Steel China COSCO Shandong Chenming Paper Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Guangzhou Shipyard Int'l Zijin Mining Sichuan Expressway China Coal Energy Dongfang Electric Aluminum Corp of China China Railway Construction China Oilfield Services Shenzhen Expressway China Shipping Development Datang Int'l Power BYD Co China Eastern Airlines Hisense Kelon Electrical Jiangxi Copper China Southern Airlines China Communications Construction BBMG China CITIC Bank PetroChina China Railway Dongjiang Environmental Air China China Int'l Marine Containers Haitong Securities Guangzhou Automobile Anhui Expressway CITIC Securities Zoomlion Heavy Industry Guangshen Railway New China Life Insurance China Life Insurance ZTE Corp Sinopec China Everbright Bank Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Bank of China Great Wall Motor CSR Corp Livzon Pharmaceutical China Construction Bank Bank of Communications China Minsheng Banking Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Agricultural Bank of China Huadian Power Int'l China Shenhua Energy Angang Steel Ping An Insurance China Merchants Bank Weichai Power ICBC China Pacific Insurance Tsingtao Brewery Jiangsu Expressway Huaneng Power Int'l Anhui Conch Cement Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical China Vanke *A shares prices have been converted to HK$ for calculation 4
5 ECONOMIC DATA Date Country Indicators Consensus Actual Previous 14/01/15 US Advance Retail Sales (December) -0.1% -0.9% +0.4% 14/01/15 US Business Inventory (November) +0.3% +0.2% +0.2% 14/01/15 US Import Price Index (December) -2.7% -2.5% -1.8% 15/01/15 US Initial Jobless Claims (10 January) 290K 294K 15/01/15 US PPI(December) -0.4% -0.2% 15/01/15 US Philadelphia Fed (January) /01/15 US CPI(December) -0.4% -0.3% 16/01/15 US Industrial Production(December) -0.1% +1.3% 16/01/15 US University of Michigan Confidence (January) /01/15 US Building Permits (December) 1.054m 1.052m 21/01/15 US Housing Starts (December) 1.040m 1.028m 23/01/15 US Existing Home Sales (December) 5.08m 4.93m 23/01/15 US Leading Indicators (December) +0.4% +0.6% 27/01/15 US Durable Goods Orders (December) -0.9% 27/01/15 US New Home Sales (December) 438K 27/01/15 US Consumer Confidence (December) /01/15 CH Money Supply M0 (December) +4.0% +3.5% 15/01/15 CH Money Supply M1 (December) +3.3% +3.2% 15/01/15 CH Money Supply M2 (December) +12.5% +12.3% 15/01/15 CH New Yuan Loans (December) RMB880.0bn RMB852.7bn 15/01/15 CH Foreign Currency Reserves(December) US$3,900.0bn US$3,887.7bn 20/01/15 CH Fixed Assets Investment (December) +15.7% +15.8% 20/01/15 CH Industrial Production (December) +7.4% +7.2% 20/01/15 CH Retail Sales (December) +11.8% +11.7% 20/01/15 CH GDP (4Q2014) +7.3% +7.3% 23/01/15 CH HSBC PMI (January) /01/15 CH Industrial Profits (December) -4.2% 28/01/15 CH Leading Index (December) /01/15 EURO-ZONE Industrial Production (November) 0.0% +0.2% +0.1% 15/01/15 EURO-ZONE Trade Balance (November) 20.0bn 19.4bn 16/01/15 EURO-ZONE CPI (December) -0.1% -0.2% 19/01/15 EURO-ZONE Construction Output (November) +1.3% 22/01/15 EURO-ZONE Consumer Confidence (January) /01/15 EURO-ZONE Money Supply M3 (December) /01/15 HK Composite Interest Rate (December) 0.38% 19/01/15 HK Unemployment Rate (December) 3.3% 22/01/15 HK Composite CPI (December) +5.1% 27/01/15 HK Exports (December) +0.4% 27/01/15 HK Imports (December) +2.4% 27/01/15 HK Trade Balance (December) -HK$52.2bn 5
6 South China Financial Holdings Ltd HEAD OFFICE 28/F, Bank of China Tower, 1 Garden Road, Central, HK Tel: (852) Fax: (852) URL: research@sctrade.com Telex: SCSL LONDON OFFICE WAN CHAI OFFICE NORTH POINT BRANCH FORTRESS HILL BRANCH 4/F, Sabadell House, 120 Pall Mall, 19/F, Tesbury Centre, Shop 1 G/F, Majestic Apartments, Unit 02, 15/F, Olympia Plaza London SW1Y 5EA, 28 Queen s Road East, King's Road, 255 King's Road, United Kingdom Wan Chai North Point North Point Tel: (4420) Tel: (852) Tel: (852) Tel: (852) Fax: (4420) Fax: (852) Fax: (852) Fax: (852) HUNG HOM BRANCH KWUN TONG BRANCH YUEN LONG BRANCH TSUEN WAN BRANCH RM , Nan On Com Bldg Office G1, 15/F, Legend Tower, Shop D, G/F, Kar Ho Building, Unit A&B 17/F, Hang Seng Tsuen Wan Bldg 69A Wuhu Street, 7 Shing Yip Street, Hong Lok Road, 289 Sha Tsui Road, Hung Hom Kwun Tong Yuen Long Tsuen Wan Tel: (852) Tel: (852) Tel: (852) Tel: (852) Fax: (852) Fax: (852) Fax: (852) Fax: (852) DISCLOSURES: This report is prepared and approved by the research team member(s) ( Analyst ) of South China Research Limited ( SCRL ). The analyst hereby declare the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst personal views about the subject companies( The Company ) and the securities covered in this report. In accordance with the applicable requirements and relevant definitions mentioned in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, the Analyst confirm that neither the Analyst nor the Analyst s associates (1) have dealt in or traded in the securities covered in this report within 30 days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) will deal in or trade in the securities covered in this report three business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of The Company; and (4) have any financial interests in The Company. The Analyst also declare the Analyst have not been, are not, and will not be receiving direct or indirect compensation for expressing the specific recommendations(s) or view(s) in this report. South China Financial Holdings Limited including its subsidiaries, and its associated companies ( SCFH ) may have financial interests in relation to The Company in respect of which are reviewed in this report, and such interests aggregate to an amount may equal to or more than 1 % of its market capitalization or 1% of its new listing issued shares covered in this report. One or more directors, officers and/or employees of SCFH may be a director or officer of the securities of The Company. SCFH and its affiliates, officers, directors and employees, excluding the Analyst, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives (including options and warrants) of The Company; and/or perform services or solicit business for The Company; and/or have a position or holding, or other material interest, or effect transactions, in such securities or options thereon, or other investments related thereto. SCFH may have served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the last 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment or investment banking services to the shares issuer(s) mentioned in this report. SCFH may have received compensation for investment banking services from The Company within the preceding 12 months and/or may currently seeking investment banking mandate from The Company. IMPORTANT: This report and the information and opinions provided or expressed herein have been prepared by SCRL and/or SCFH for the information of its or their respective clients only, and has been compiled with reasonable care using data, information, or sources believed to be true, reliable, and accurate at the time of publication. No representation or warranty whatsoever, whether express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness or otherwise of this report or any of the contents thereof. SCRL and/or SCFH and their or their directors, officers, associates, representatives, or employees accordingly do not accept any responsibility or liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss or damage of whatsoever nature arising from or as a result of the use, publication, or distribution in whole or in part of this report or any of its contents. The information and opinions contained in this report are or may be subject to change or revision without any notice. SCRL and/or SCFH and their or their respective directors, officers, associates, representatives, or employees may have positions or otherwise be directly or indirectly interested in the securities mentioned in this report or may buy, sell, or deal or offer to buy, sell, or deal in or with such securities from time to time, whether as principal for its or their own account or as agent or in any other capacity for or on behalf of another person. This report is not, and is not intended to be, nor constitutes any offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale or other dealing in the securities mentioned herein. Copyright protection and other rights exist or subsist in this report, which may accordingly not be used for any other purpose, nor sold, distributed, published, or reproduced in any manner without the express consent of SCRL. This publication is approved for distribution in the UK by South China Securities (UK), a firm authorized and regulated by the FSA. Investors, when reading this report, should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its relevant investment risks, and consult their own independent financial advisers before making any investment decision when necessary. 6
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