The Challenges of Communicating the Reality of Climate Change John Cook

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1 The Challenges of Communicating the Reality of Climate Change John Cook Date: 8 July 2013

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3 Why is Climate Change So Hard to Communicate? Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get. ROBERT HEINLEIN Climate is weather averaged over time and space. Climate is a statistical abstraction.

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6 Effect of indoor plants on climate views Dead indoor plants strengthen belief in global warming (Joireman et al 2010) Several dead plants increased acceptance of climate change

7 Communicating Sticky Ideas Sticky ideas are: Simple Unexpected Concrete Credible Emotional Story

8 Sticky Ideas vs Mathematics Sticky ideas are: Simple Unexpected Concrete Credible Emotional Story Mathematics is: Complicated Perplexing Abstract Suspicious Detached Numbers

9 Climate change and extreme weather

10 we can t attribute any particular weather event to climate change. President Obama

11 Meehl 2009

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15 Global warming = 900 more Sydney Harbours in the atmosphere

16 Climate change and extreme weather Weather is like rolling dice. Global warming loads the dice, increases the chances of more extreme weather.

17 Climate change and extreme weather Weather is like a boxer throwing punches. Global warming trains our climate to throw harder, faster punches at us.

18 "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." MARK TWAIN

19 One Model of the Human Brain

20 A More Accurate Model of the Human Brain

21 The Familiarity Backfire Effect

22 The Familiarity Backfire Effect

23 Danger, Will Robinson! Approaching myth!

24 The Overkill Backfire Effect MYTH FACT FACT FACT FACT FACT FACT FACT FACT FACT FACT FACT FACT MYTH A simple myth is more cognitively attractive than an over-complicated correction (Schwarz et al 2007)

25 The Overkill Backfire Effect MYTH FACT FACT FACT FACT A simple myth is more cognitively attractive than an over-complicated correction (Schwarz et al 2007)

26 One last psychological pitfall

27 An Alternative Explanation Participants read an account of a warehouse fire, mentioning paint and gas cans (Siefert 2002) When told the paint and cans were not present, people still cited them This happened even when they remembered and accepted the correction

28 An Alternative Explanation MYTH Removing a myth leaves a gap

29 An Alternative Explanation FACT Replace with alternative narrative

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31 Fight Sticky Ideas With Stickier Ideas

32 6 traits of sticky ideas: Simple Unexpected Concrete Credible Emotional Story

33 New data released two weeks ago shows the pause in global warming has now lasted 16 years. Andrew Bolt

34 Is global warming happening?

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42 The most dangerous climate misconception " There is no scientific consensus that humans are causing global warming

43 Cook et al 2013

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46 The importance of consensus " Ding et al 2011 found that people who believe scientists disagree on global warming are less likely to support climate policy " McCright et al 2013: Climate change communicators should therefore identify opportunities and employ techniques to effectively counter the denial machine s campaign of challenging the scientific consensus. Overcoming its success in generating belief that scientists do not agree about anthropogenic global warming seems to be crucial for increasing public support for emissions reduction policies.

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49 Media Coverage of Consensus Paper

50 97% of scientists, including, by the way, some who originally disputed the data, have now put that to rest. They ve acknowledged the planet is warming and human activity is contributing to it. PRESIDENT OBAMA

51 The Worst Backfire Effect!

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54 Summary To be effective, we need to communicate sticky ideas To successfully debunk myths, we need to fight sticky ideas with stickier ideas Closing the consensus gap is an important step to increasing support for climate action

55 John Cook Global Change Institute, University of Queensland " Web: "