Sri Lanka: Macroeconomic Developments in Charts September 2015

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1 Sri Lanka: Macroeconomic Developments in Charts September 215

2 Real Sector and Inflation Real GDP Growth (Annual /Quarterly) Sectoral GDP Growth Per Capita GDP Unemployment Poverty Inflation (i) Inflation (ii) External Sector Earnings from Merchandise Exports Expenditure from Merchandise Imports Trade Balance Tourism: Arrivals and Earnings Tourism: Monthly Arrivals Workers Remittances Current Account Balance Balance of Payment Foreign Direct Investment Flows Gross Official Reserves Exchange Rate Movements Index Fiscal Sector Government Revenue Government Expenditure Public Investment Budget Deficit Central Government Debt Monetary Sector Reserve Money Growth and Money Multiplier Broad Money Growth Credit to the Private Sector Net Credit to Government Credit to Public Corporations Net Foreign Assets Policy Interest Rates and Overnight Money Market Rates Treasury Bill Yields and the Yield Curve Market Interest Rates Financial Sector Banking Sector Indicators (i) Banking Sector Indicators (ii) Banking Density Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators (i) Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators (ii) Stock Market Performance

3 Real Sector and Inflation

4 Q1 28-Q2 28-Q3 28-Q4 29-Q1 29-Q2 29-Q3 29-Q4 21-Q1 21-Q2 21-Q3 21-Q4 211-Q1 211-Q2 211-Q3 211-Q4 212-Q1 212-Q2 212-Q3 212-Q4 213-Q1 213-Q2 213-Q3 213-Q4 214-Q1 214-Q2 214-Q3 214-Q4 215-Q1 215-Q2 215-Q3 Real GDP Growth* Annual Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Growth % % Source: Department of Census and Statistics Source: Department of Census and Statistics * Growth for the period 211 to 215 Q3 is based on rebased (21 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and Statistics

5 Growth Rate (%) Growth Rate (%) Growth Rate (%) Sectoral GDP Growth* Agriculture Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Industry Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Services Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Source: Department of Census and Statistics *Information for the period 211 to 215 Q3 is based on rebased (21 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and Statistics

6 US$ Per Capita GDP* 4, 3,61 3,795 3,5 3,351 3,129 3, 2,744 2,5 2, 2,11 2,54 1,5 1, ,62 1,241 1,421 1, Source: Department of Census and Statistics *Information for the period 21 to 214 is based on rebased (21 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and Statistics and the data is updated with latest population data

7 % Unemployment Q3 Source: Department of Census and Statistics

8 % Poverty Poverty Headcount Ratio / /27 29/21 212/213 Source: Department of Census and Statistics

9 Mar-7 Sep-7 Mar-8 Sep-8 Mar-9 Sep-9 Mar-1 Sep-1 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-7 Sep-7 Mar-8 Sep-8 Mar-9 Sep-9 Mar-1 Sep-1 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Inflation (i) CCPI based Headline Inflation* CCPI based Core Inflation* % 14 % Headline (Y-o-Y) Headline (Annual Avg.) Core (Y-o-Y) Core (Annual Avg.) Source: Department of Census and Statistics *Based on the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI, 26/7=1) **Core Inflation is calculated by excluding fresh food, energy, transport, rice and coconut from the CCPI

10 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 % Inflation (ii) CCPI and NCPI based Headline Inflation (y-o-y) Inflation based on CCPI Inflation based on NCPI Source: Department of Census and Statistics Note: CCPI Colombo Consumer Price Index (26/7=1) NCPI National Consumer Price Index (213=1)

11 External Sector

12 Jan-Sep US$ bn US$ mn Earnings from Merchandise Exports Merchandise Exports - Annually Merchandise Exports - Monthly ,1 1,5 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: and Sri Lanka Customs

13 Jan-Sep US$ bn US$ mn Expenditure on Merchandise Imports Merchandise Imports - Annually Merchandise Imports - Monthly ,9 1,8 1, ,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: and Sri Lanka Customs

14 US$ bn Trade Balance Jan - Sep Source:

15 Jan-Sep US$ mn Number Number Tourism Arrivals and Earnings Monthly Arrivals 3, 1,8, 2, 2,5 2,431 2,95 1,6, 1,4, 18, 16, 2, 1,5 1, ,715 1, ,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Earnings from tourism(us$ mn) Tourist arrivals(no) Source: and Sri Lanka Tourist Development Authority (SLTDA) Source: SLTDA

16 US$ mn Workers Remittances 8, 7, 6, 5,985 6,47 7,18 5, 5,145 5,182 4, 3, 2, 1,16 1,155 1,287 1,414 1,35 1,968 2,161 2,52 2,918 3,33 4,116 1, Jan-Sep Source:

17 US$ bn Current Account Balance Jan-Sep -4.6 Source:

18 Jan-Sep US$ mn Foreign Direct Investment Inflows 1,8 1,685 1,6 1,4 1,382 1,437 1,2 1,66 1, Source:, Board of Investment and Colombo Stock Exchange

19 US$ bn Balance of Payments 3. Overall Balance Jan-Sep Source:

20 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 US$ bn Months Gross Official Reserves 1 Gross Official Reserves and Months of Imports Gross Official Reserves Months of Imports Source:

21 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Exchange Rate Movements Rs US Dollar Rs Sterling Pound Rs Euro Rs Japanese Yen Rs Indian Rupee Rs Australian Dollar Source:

22 Fiscal Sector

23 Jan - Sep % of GDP Government Revenue Source: Ministry of Finance *Information for the period 21 to 215 is based on rebased (21 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and Statistics

24 Jan - Sep Jan - Sep % of GDP % of GDP Government Expenditure Recurrent Expenditure Capital and Net Lending Source: Ministry of Finance *Information for the period 21 to 215 is based on rebased (21 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and Statistics

25 % of GDP Public Investment Source: Ministry of Finance *Information for the period 21 to 214 is based on rebased (21 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and Statistics

26 % of GDP Budget Deficit Jan - Sep Source: Ministry of Finance *Information for the period 21 to 215 is based on rebased (21 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and Statistics

27 % of GDP Central Government Debt Source: Ministry of Finance *Information for the period 21 to 214 is based on rebased (21 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and Statistics

28 Monetary Sector

29 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep Sep % Y-O-Y Reserve Money Growth and Money Multiplier Reserve Money Growth(Y-O-Y) Money Multiplier M1 M2 M2b Source:

30 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 % Broad Money Growth Broad Money (M 2b ) Growth(Y-O-Y) Source:

31 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 Jan-2 May-2 Sep-2 Jan-3 May-3 Sep-3 Jan-4 May-4 Sep-4 Jan-5 May-5 Sep-5 Jan-6 May-6 Sep-6 Jan-7 May-7 Sep-7 Jan-8 May-8 Sep-8 Jan-9 May-9 Sep-9 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Rs.bn % Credit to the Private Sector 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Private Sector Credit Volume (LHS) Private Sector Credit Growth (RHS) Source:

32 Jan- May- Sep- Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 Jan-2 May-2 Sep-2 Jan-3 May-3 Sep-3 Jan-4 May-4 Sep-4 Jan-5 May-5 Sep-5 Jan-6 May-6 Sep-6 Jan-7 May-7 Sep-7 Jan-8 May-8 Sep-8 Jan-9 May-9 Sep-9 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Rs. bn Rs. bn Net Credit to the Government 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Central Bank Commercial Banks Claim on Government (net) Source:

33 Mar-96 Dec-96 Sep-97 Jun-98 Mar-99 Dec-99 Sep- Jun-1 Mar-2 Dec-2 Sep-3 Jun-4 Mar-5 Dec-5 Sep-6 Jun-7 Mar-8 Dec-8 Sep-9 Jun-1 Mar-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Dec-14 Sep-15 Rs.bn Credit to Public Corporations Source:

34 Dec-2 Mar-3 Jun-3 Sep-3 Dec-3 Mar-4 Jun-4 Sep-4 Dec-4 Mar-5 Jun-5 Sep-5 Dec-5 Mar-6 Jun-6 Sep-6 Dec-6 Mar-7 Jun-7 Sep-7 Dec-7 Mar-8 Jun-8 Sep-8 Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Rs.bn Net Foreign Assets(NFA) 1, , NFA of Central Bank NFA of Commercial Banks NFA of the Banking System Source:

35 3-Jan-12 7-Mar Apr-12 2-May Jun-12 2-Aug-12 8-Sep Oct Nov Dec-12 3-Feb Mar Apr May-13 1-Jul-13 7-Aug Sep-13 2-Oct Nov-13 2-Jan-14 8-Feb Mar Apr-14 3-May-14 6-Jul Aug Sep Oct-14 1-Dec-14 7-Jan Feb Mar Apr-15 4-Jun Jul Aug Sep-15 % Policy Interest Rates and Overnight Money Market Rates Average Weighted Call Money Rate Standing Deposit Facility Rate* Standing Lending Facility Rate ** *Previously known as the Repo Rate ** Previously known as the Reverse Repo Rate Source:

36 1-Jan Feb-12 4-Apr May-12 7-Jul Aug-12 9-Oct Nov Jan Feb Apr-13 1-Jun Jul-13 3-Sep-13 2-Oct-13 6-Dec Jan-14 1-Mar Apr Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec-14 2-Feb Mar-15 7-May Jun-15 9-Aug Sep-15 3 Month 6 Month 12 Month 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 8 Year 1 Year 15 Year 2 Year 3 Year % % Treasury Bill Yields and the Yield Curve Treasury Bill Yields and Policy Interest Rates Secondary Market Yield Curve 91- Day Treasury bill 182- Day Treasury bill 364- Day Treasury bill Standing Deposit Facility Rate Standing Lending Facility Rate End 211 End 212 End 213 End Q3 Source:

37 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 % Market Interest Rates Monthly Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate (AWPR) Average Weighted Deposit Rate (AWDR) Average Weighted Fixed Deposit Rate (AWFDR) T-Bill yield (91-day) Source:

38 Financial Sector

39 Rs.bn Rs.bn % Banking Sector Indicators (i) 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, - Assets and Liabilities of the Banking Sector 1,975 2,586 2,61 3,73 3,149 3,625 3,427 4,17 3,895 4,686 4,495 5, Q3 Loans and Advances Deposits Non-Performing Loans of the Banking Sector Q3 Gross NPL Volume(Rs.bn) Gross NPL Ratio(%) Net NPL Ratio(%) Source:

40 % % Rs.bn % Banking Sector Indicators (ii) Profitability Indicators Capital Adequacy Ratios Q3 Return on Equity Net Interest Margin Return on Assets 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, ,571 1,527 1,815 2,269 2,61 2,942 3,483 4, Q3 Risk Weighted Aseets (Rs.bn) Core CAR (%) Total CAR (%) Source:

41 Banking Density by Province Q3

42 Rs.bn Rs.bn Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators (i) 1,2 1, Assets of the LFC & SLC Sector Q3 Total Deposits of the LFC & SLC Sector Q3 Source: LFC: Licensed Finance Companies SLC: Specialised Leasing Companies

43 % Rs.bn % Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators (ii) Profitability Indicators of the LFC and SLC Sector Q3 Net Interest Margin Return on Assets Return on Equity Non-Performing Advances Q3 Gross NPA (Rs.bn) Gross NPA Ratio (%) Net NPA Ratio (%) Source:

44 2-Jan Mar-11 1-Jun Aug Oct Jan Mar-12 1-Jun Aug-12 7-Nov Jan-13 6-Apr-13 2-Jun-13 3-Sep Nov Jan Apr-14 3-Jun Sep Nov-14 1-Feb Apr-15 1-Jul Sep-15 Index Rs.bn US$ mn Stock Market Performance Share Price Indices and Market Capitalisation Net Foreign Inflows to the Secondary Market 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Share Price Indices and Market Capitalisation 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Net Foreign inflows Market Capitalisation (RHS) S&P SL 2 Index (LHS) All Share Price Index (LHS) Jan - Sep Source: Colombo Stock Exchange

45 The sets of graphs above summarise macroeconomic and financial market trends in Sri Lanka. However, these graphs do not provide source data. An extensive set of data is available in the CBSL website. Information for 215 Q3 is provisional.

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