Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P Sectors

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1 Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors December 2, 2 Dr. Ed Yardeni Joe Abbott Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Figures S&P Earnings & Revenue Growth 3 S&P Sectors Quarterly Earnings Per Share S&P Sectors Quarterly Revenues Per Share S&P Sectors Earnings Growth S&P Sectors Revenues Growth 7 S&P Sectors Stock Price Indexes S&P Sectors Versus 2-Dma S&P Sectors Relative to S&P 1 S&P Sectors Bull Market Strength Since 2 S&P Sectors Forward Earnings S&P Sectors Forward Earnings 13 S&P Sectors Forward Earnings S&P Sectors Forward Revenues S&P Sectors Forward Revenues S&P Sectors Forward Revenues 17 S&P Sectors Forward Profit Margin 1 S&P Sectors Forward P/Es 1 S&P Sectors Relative Forward P/Es 2 S&P Sectors Divisors 21 S&P Sectors Forward Earnings 22 S&P Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index 23 S&P Sectors STEG vs LTEG 2 S&P Sectors PEG Ratio 2 S&P Sectors Operating Profit Margin 2 S&P Sectors Forecasted & Actual Profit Margins 27 December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

3 1 Figure 1. S&P Earnings & Revenue Growth S&P EARNINGS GROWTH* (percent) Latest data thru //2 1 Actual y/y growth Estimated y/y growth** Q * Yearly growth rates capped at +1% and -1% due to extreme values. ** Industry analysts consensus expected earnings growth. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. 2 Figure 2. S&P REVENUE GROWTH (percent) Latest data thru // Actual y/y growth Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. -2 Page 3 / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

4 2-2 S&P Sectors Quarterly Earnings Per Share Figure 2. Operating Earnings Per Share Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

5 1 7 Figure 3. S&P Sectors Quarterly Revenues Per Share Revenues Per Share Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

6 S&P Sectors Earnings Growth Figure. * Actual y/y growth Latest data thru // Q Estimated y/y growth** * Q * Q * Q * Q * Q * * 1 Q - -1 Q * * 3 Q Q * Yearly growth rates capped at +1% and -1% due to extreme values. ** Industry analysts consensus expected earnings growth. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation Page / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

7 S&P Sectors Revenues Growth Figure. Actual y/y growth Latest data thru // * Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 7 / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

8 S&P Sectors Stock Price Indexes 7 3 Figure. * *S&P sectors on ratio scales. 2-day moving average Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

9 Figure 7. (price index as percentage of 2-dma) S&P Sectors Versus 2-Dma Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

10 2 Figure. (Performance relative to S&P ) S&P Sectors Relative to S&P 1.2% Thru / % % % % -2.% % % % * Indexed to on 3//2. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Data as of / -.% Page 1 / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

11 2 S&P Sectors Bull Market Strength Since 2 Figure. Price relative to S&P * * Indexed to 1 on 3//2. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

12 3 2 Figure 1. (S&P forward earnings by sector) S&P Sectors Forward Earnings Annual consensus estimates Forward earnings TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

13 S&P Sectors Forward Earnings 3 2 Figure. (S&P forward earnings by sector) 3 1 Annual consensus estimates Forward earnings TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 13 / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

14 3 2 Figure. (S&P forward earnings by sector) S&P Sectors Forward Earnings Annual consensus estimates Forward earnings TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

15 S&P Sectors Forward Revenues 3 Figure 13. (S&P forward revenues by sector) INFORMATIN TECHNOLOGY * Time-weighted average (in red) of the current year s and next year s consensus revenues estimates (in blue). Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

16 S&P Sectors Forward Revenues 7 Figure. (S&P forward revenues by sector) INFORMATIN TECHNOLOGY * Time-weighted average (in red) of the current year s and next year s consensus revenues estimates (in blue). Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 22 Page / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

17 S&P Sectors Forward Revenues 7 Figure. (S&P forward revenues by sector) INFORMATIN TECHNOLOGY * Time-weighted average (in red) of the current year s and next year s consensus revenues estimates (in blue). Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 2 Page 17 / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

18 S&P Sectors Forward Profit Margin 7 Figure. (S&P profit margin by sector) 1 3 Annual margins Forward margins* * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 1 / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

19 S&P Sectors Forward P/Es Figure 13. (S&P forward P/Es by sector) (17.) (.) (1.) (.) (.) (.7) (.1) (13.1) (17.) (.) Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 1 / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

20 Figure. S&P Sectors Relative Forward P/Es (S&P relative forward P/Es by sector) (1.) (.) (1.1) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.2) (1.) (1.)...7 * Sector s forward P/E divided by S&P forward P/E. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 2 / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

21 3 Figure S&P Sectors Divisors Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 21 / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

22 S&P Sectors Forward Earnings Figure. Forward Earnings* * Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 22 / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

23 S&P Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index Figure 17. Nov Net Earnings Revisions Index* Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov * Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Nov Page 23 / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

24 S&P Sectors STEG vs LTEG Figure 1. STEG* LTEG* STEG capped at % * STEG: -month forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S Page 2 / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

25 S&P Sectors PEG Ratio Figure 1. PEG Ratio* (1.) (1.) (2.2) (1.27) (1.2) (1.3) (1.) (1.) (1.2) (.) * Sector s forward P/E divided by sector s consensus projected -year earnings growth rate. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 2 / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

26 S&P Sectors Operating Profit Margin 1 2 Figure 2. Operating Profit Margin* (trailing -quarter, %) Sector S&P Composite * Operating Margin in percent and based on trailing -quarter EPS and sales. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Haver Analytics. Page 2 / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

27 S&P Sectors Forecasted & Actual Profit Margins 7 3 Figure 21. /1 Operating Profit Margin* Actual -Q Trailing Implied Forward / /1 / /1 / /1 217 / /1 / * Actual from S&P based on trailing -quarter EPS and sales. Forecast implied from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S consensus forward EPS and sales, and pushed one year ahead. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 27 / December 2, 2 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P -- Sectors

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