Fixed Income & DCM Banking Seminar London SEB Merchant Banking Fixed Income & DCM

Transcription

1 Fixed Income & DCM Banking Seminar London 2012

2 Market update Strong sentiment but event risks continue to loom Market overview issuance vs. credit market performance Economic events 2 nd Greek bail out Italy and Spain becomes major concern ECB performs LTRO FED commits to QE3 ECB pledges to protect EUR Greece leaves EU? Peripherals falling off fiscal cliff? Germany leaves EZ? Jun-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Spring-13 Fall-13 issuance in the Norwegian market 2011/2012 YTD vs. Itraxx X-over NOK m IG HY X-Over Bps jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt nov des jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt nov des jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt nov des ? Market sentiment has been strong over the summer in the Norwegian bond market with issuance surpassing the equivalent of NOK 31.4bn since the start of August, bringing total issuance this year to NOK 80bn (HY = NOK 50bn) Issuers looking to tap the market are well advised to complete documentation to be able to utilize market windows on short notice as openings can come and go quickly due to event risks Source: Bloomberg, SEB Research

3 Cross asset monitor Positive market sentiment but event risks continue to loom Market overview Itraxx Credit indices 10 year benchmark yields NOK swap- / interbank rates Sov WE Europe X-Over 4.00 Ger Gov US Gov NOK Gov 4.50 NOK 5y Sw ap Nibor 3M Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Equity markets Commodities WTI Oil & Gold spot Market commentary 130 S&P 500 OSEBX EuroStoxx Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov Gold WTI Crude Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 Corporate credit spreads has tightened in recent months with flurry of primary market activity Capital preservation still key for investors holding Govie yields at lows Interest rates continue to stay low as central banks across the globe has pledged to continue it s stimuli Inflation protection and safe haven features continue to support Gold prices Source: Bloomberg

4 We are on the road to..?

5 Something not yet finished!

6 Evolution of corporate funding cost Credit spreads now represent a large fixed component of the overall funding cost but all in levels look attractive Fixed rate borrowing Floating rate borrowing Funding cost (%) Funding cost( %) 8.0 5y Itraxx Europe spread 5y NOK sw ap rate y Itraxx Europe spread NIBOR 3M Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 % contribution % contribution 100 % 90 % Average = 26% 80 % 70 % 60 % 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 0 % Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan % 90 % 80 % Average = 33% 70 % 60 % 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 0 % Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 We use the Itraxx Europe to make a projection of investment grade corporate funding costs in NOK Interest rates are at historically low levels and credit spreads still wide compared to pre crisis levels, for a typical investment grade corporate credit spread represent on average 26% of the all-in interest cost for fixed rate borrowing with 33% for floating rate borrowing Although credit spreads are wider than pre-crisis levels corporates benefit from the historically low interest levels Source: Bloomberg

7 SEB as advisor Preferred partner for Norwegian DCM transactions A leading issuer for Norwegian corporate bonds Selected investment grade issues 2012 Transaction statistics Investment grade issuance 2012 Issuance volumes, Investment Grade Corporates 2012 (NOK m) October 2012 NOK 1,000 / 3-Year August 2012 NOK 750 / 5&7-Year June 2012 NOK 400 / 5-Year May 2012 NOK 600 / 5-Year Sole Lead SEB DNB NDA ARC DB SWE May 2012 NOK 750 / 5-Year March 2012 NOK 3,000 / 5-Year March 2012 NOK 350 / 4-Year Sole Lead March 2012 NOK 100 / 5-Year Sole Lead All bonds 2012 Including financials (NOK bn) (Stamdata) February 2012 NOK 500 / 5-Year February 2012 NOK 1500 /5 & 7-Yr January 2012 NOK 350 / 10-Year Sole Lead January 2012 NOK 1500/ 10&15-Yr 59,0 39,2 36,9 26,7 19,6 18,9 DNB SEB NDA SWE SB1 DB SEB is the leading DCM advisor for investment grade corporate issuers in the Norwegian bond market leading 18 transactions with a total issuance volume of over NOK 6bn for both public and private sector companies SEB was the second largest isssuer of all bonds in Norway 2012

8 Investment grade transaction 2012 Total investment grade issuance of NOK 30bn so far this year Issuer Rating* Sector Issue date Maturity Coupon NOK amount NSB AA- Other % 350 Sr Unsecured Rank Issuer Rating* Sector Issue date Maturity Coupon NOK amount Aker Solutions BBB- Oil Service N3M Sr Unsecured Rank NSB AA- Other % 1150 Sr Unsecured Hafslund BBB+ Utility % 300 Sr Unsecured Statnett A+ Utility % 1000 Sr Unsecured Lyse Energi BBB+ Utility N3M Sr Unsecured Norgesgruppen A- Consumer N3M Sr Unsecured Statoil fuel & retail BBB+ Consumer N3M Sr Unsecured Statoil fuel & retail BBB+ Consumer % 1100 Sr Unsecured Tele2 AB BBB Telecom N3M Sr Unsecured Tele2 AB BBB Telecom N3M Sr Unsecured Lyse Energi BBB+ Utility N3M Sr Unsecured BKK A- Utility N3M Sr Unsecured Mosking Bolig AS BBB Real Estate % 700 Pledge Schibsted BBB Media N3M Sr Unsecured Schibsted BBB Media % 300 Sr Unsecured A.P. Møller-Mærsk A- Transportation N3M Sr Unsecured Olav Thon Eiendom BBB+ Real Estate % 350 1st pri pledge Niam Kjøpesenter BBB Real Estate % CPI adj Secured Entra Eiendom A- Real Estate N3M Sr Unsecured Lyse Energi BBB+ Utility % 211 Sr Unsecured Agder Energi BBB+ Utility N3M Sr Unsecured Agder Energi BBB+ Utility N3M Sr Unsecured DFDS BBB- Other N3M Sr Unsecured BKK A- Utility N3M Sr Unsecured Entra Eiendom A- Real Estate N3M Sr Unsecured Thon Holding BBB+ Real Estate N3M st pri pledge BKK A- Utility N3M Sr Unsecured Energis. Buskerud A- Utility N3M Sr Unsecured Entra Eiendom A- Real Estate % 175 Sr Unsecured Eidsiva Energi A- Utility % 500 Sr Unsecured Solveig Gas Norway A- Oil & Gas % 1000 Secured Nortura BBB- Consumer N3M Sr Unsecured Norsk Hydro BBB Industrial % 1500 Sr Unsecured Olav Thon Eiendom BBB+ Real Estate N3M st pri pledge Skøyen Næringsbygg BBB Real Estate % 550 Pledge Arendal Fossekompani BBB Utility % 400 Sr Unsecured BKK A- Utility N3M Sr Unsecured Kongsberg Gruppen A- Industrial % 250 Sr Unsecured Kongsberg Gruppen A- Industrial N3M Sr Unsecured Steen & Strøm BBB+ Real Estate N3M Sr Unsecured Entra Eiendom A- Real Estate N3M Sr Unsecured BKK A- Utility N3M Sr Unsecured BKK A- Utility N3M Sr Unsecured Hafslund BBB+ Utility % 243 Sr Unsecured Norgesgruppen A- Consumer N3M Sr Unsecured Cermaq BBB- Other N3M Sr Unsecured Agder Energi BBB+ Utility % 100 Sr Unsecured Olav Thon Eiendom BBB+ Real Estate N3M Sr Secured Hafslund BBB+ Utility % 50 Sr Secured Tafjord Kraft BBB+ Utility N3M Sr Unsecured Eidsiva Energi A- Utility % 150 Sr Unsecured Tine A- Consumer N3M Sr Unsecured Merkantilbygg Holding BBB Real Estate % 700 Sr Secured Fram Eiendom BBB Real Estate % 400 Sr Secured Source: Norsk Tillitsmann, *Includes both public and shadow-rating TeliaSonera A- Telecom % 500 Sr Unsecured Entra Eiendom A- Real Estate N3M Sr Unsecured

9 Norwegian HY market update Selected issues during 2011 and 2012 Issuer Close Industry Tenor C+N3M Currency Amount S-rating Security 1 Det Norske Oljes E&P NOK 600 B 2 Host Hotel RE NOK 150 B+/BB- 3 W. Wilhelmsen (tap) Shipping 3.8 +(339) NOK 500 BB+/- 4 Morpol Other NOK 500 BB-/B 5 Aker Drilling Drilling /11% NOK 940/560 B+/B guarantee 6 Olympic Oil Service NOK 250 BB-/B 7 Ship Finance (cv.) Shipping % (conv) USD 125 BB/- 8 Prosafe Oil Service NOK 500 BB+/- 9 Solstad Oil Service NOK 700 BB/BB- 10 Dannemora Other % USD 120 CCC/- guarantee 11 I.M. Skaugen Shipping NOK 350 B/B- 12 Havila Shipping Oil Service /8.6% NOK 300/300 B/B 13 PA Resoures E & P % NOK 900 B/- 14 North Atlantic Drill Drilling % USD 500 B/- 15 DNO Int E&P /L+750 NOK/USD 560/140 B/- 16 Noreco E&P /10.25% NOK 325/275 B/B+ 17 Polarcus (cv.) Oil Service % USD 125 B/- 18 Etrion Corp Other 4 9% EUR 50 B/- guarantee 19 DOF Subsea Oil Service NOK 750 B/- 20 REC Other 5/7 +435/9.75% NOK 500/700 BB/BB 21 TrollDrilling Drilling % USD 60 CCC/- 22 BOA Group Shipping NOK 1200 B/- 23 Ocean Rig UDW Oil Service % USD 500 B/- 24 EMGS Oil Service NOK 250 B/- 25 Fred Olsen Energy Drilling NOK 1400 BB 26 Jasper Oil Service % USD 165 B/- guarantee 27 Stolt-Nielsen Shipping USD 300 BB+/BB 28 Global Rig Oil Service 4 13% USD 60 CCC 29 EOAL Cyprus Oil Service 3 15% USD 88 CCC 30 Havila AS Oil Service 3 N6M+800 NOK 410 B/B 31 Polarcus Oil Service 3 14% NOK 230 B-/CCC+ 32 Songa Offshore Drilling NOK 1400 B/- 33 Color Group Shipping NOK 500 BB/B+ 34 Deep Drilling Driling 4 12% USD 125 CCC 35 Aker ASA Other NOK 500 BB/BB 36 Teekay Offshore Ptns Shipping NOK 600 BB/BB- 37 Prosafe SE Oil Service NOK 500 BB+/BB 38 DOF ASA Oil Service NOK 700 B+/B 39 Bonheur Other 5/7 +450/+500 NOK 700/300 BB/BB- Issuer Close Industry Tenor C+N3M Currency Amount S-rating Security 40 Farstad Shipping Oil Service NOK 400 BB/BB- 41 Austevoll Seafood Other NOK 400 BB+/BB 42 Seadrill Ltd Drilling NOK 1,250 BB+/BB 43 DOF Subsea Oil Service NOK 700 B+/B- 44 Pacific Drilling Drilling % USD 300 B/ - 45 Sinoceanic II AS Shipping 3 +1,000 USD 100 CCC/ - 46 I.M. Skaugen Shipping NOK 400 B/B- 47 BWG Homes* RE NOK 300 BB/BB- 48 Deep Drilling Drilling % USD 240 CCC/ - 49 Golar LNG (cv.) Shipping % USD 250 BB/BB 50 Selvaag RE NOK 200 BB/BB 51 Aker ASA* Other NOK 500 BB/BB 52 Viking Supply Oil Service NOK 300 B+/B- 53 BWO Offshore* Oil Service NOK 500 BB+/BB- 54 Northland Res Mining 5 13% NOK/USD 460/270 B/ - 55 Hurtigruten ASA Shipping NOK 500 B+/B- 56 Stolt-Nielsen Shipping 3/6 +375/475 NOK 400/600 BB/BB- 57 OSX 3 Leasing Shipping % USD 500 CCC/- 58 I.M. Skaugen* Shipping NOK 350 B/B- 59 Odfjell SE Shipping NOK 600 B+/B 60 Norwegian Other NOK 600 B/B- 61 Teekay LNG Partners Shipping NOK 700 BB/BB- 62 DFDS* Shipping NOK 500 BBB-/BB+ 63 Aker Solutions* Oil Service NOK 1500 BB Songa* Drilling NOK 750 B2-/B Petrominerales (cv.) Energy % USD 400 -/- 66 Ocean Yield Shipping NOK 600 B+/B Aker CoC 67 Havila Shipping Oil Service (+900) NOK 500 B-/CCC+ 68 Aker ASA Other NOK 500 BB/BB 69 Stolt-Nielsen (+ tap) Shipping 2.5/5.5/7 375/475/500 NOK 1000 BB/BB- 70 DOF ASA Oil Service NOK B+/B 71 Color Group Shipping NOK 700 BB-/B+ 72 Olympic Oil Service NOK 500 B+/B 73 Hoegh LNG LNG NOK 750 B+/B 74 Golar LNG Partners LNG NOK 1300 BB/BB- 75 Aker Solutions Oil Service NOK 1000 BB Teekay Corp Shipping NOK 700 [BB/BB-] 77 Floatel International Oil Services % USD 200 B-/B- 78 Norwegian Energy E&P 14m 12.90% NOK 300 B/B- 79 J Lauritzen 10,10 Shipping NOK 500 B+/B 80 Ship Finance Shipping NOK 600 BB 81 Dolphin Group Oil Services NOK 400 B 82 Odfjell Shipping NOK 200 B+/B 83 Odfjell Shipping NOK 500 B+/B

10 DCM HY Credentials SEB a preferred partner for Nordic DCM transactions October 2012 NOK 400 / 4-Year October 2012 NOK 300 / 2-Year October 2012 NOK 500 / 5-Year September 2012 USD 200 / 5-Year September 2012 NOK 1000 / 7-Year September 2012 SEK 750 / 5-Year June 2012 SEK 600 / 5-Year June 2012 SEK 500 / 3-Year June 2012 SEK 1,300 / 5-Year May 2012 EUR 150 / 4-Year May 2012 NOK 750 / 3-Year May 2012 NOK 1500 / 5-Year April 2012 NOK 500 / 4-Year February 2012 EUR 500 / 7-Year March 2012 NOK 350 / 4-Year February 2012 NOK 500 / 5-Year February 2012 NOK 500 / 5-Year February 2012 NOK 300 / 3-Year

11 Disclaimer Please note that this presentation material does not constitute an offer of any kind by Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) ("SEB"), and should only be seen as a basis for further discussions. This presentation is provided on a strictly confidential basis and should not be distributed to persons other than the intended recipients. All information contained in this presentation has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and the presentation is not to be relied upon as authoritative. Recipients are urged to base their investment decisions upon such investigations, as they deem necessary. To the extent permitted by applicable law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document or its contents. When entering into financial transactions, the Customer acknowledges that it has been solely responsible for making its own independent appraisal and investigations into the risks of entering into such transactions. Subject to Applicable Regulations, neither SEB nor its directors, officers, employees, or agents shall be liable for any losses, damages, costs or expenses, whether arising out of negligence, breach of contract, misrepresentation or otherwise, incurred or suffered by the Customer under the terms or any financial transactions, unless such loss arises directly from SEB's or such individual's respective wilful default or fraud. In no circumstance shall SEB's liability include any losses suffered by the Customer or any third party for any special damage, indirect losses or loss of profits or loss of goodwill or loss of business opportunity, whether arising out of negligence, breach of contract, misrepresentation or otherwise. Your attention is drawn to the fact that SEB, a member of, or any entity associated with SEB or its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or shareholders of such members may from time to time (a) have a long or short position or holding in the securities or options of such companies mentioned herein, (b) buy or sell or participate in an issue of such securities or options, (c) provide corporate finance services to such companies or in relation to such securities or options, (d) be represented on the board of directors or similar supervisory entity of such companies. SEB may make a market in the securities mentioned in this presentation.

12 Global offices Copenhagen Helsinki Oslo Stockholm Silkegade 8 DK-1113 Copenhagen K Denmark Unioninkatu 30 P.O. Box 630 FI Helsinki Finland Telephone: Filipstad Brygge 1 P.O. Box 1363 Vika NO-0113 Oslo Norway Telephone: Kungsträdgårdsgatan 8 SE Stockholm Sweden Telephone: Telephone: London Tallinn 2 Cannon Street London EC4M 6XX United Kingdom Telephone: Tornimäe 2 EE Tallinn Estonia Telephone: New York Frankfurt Vilnius Riga 245 Park Avenue, 42nd Floor New York, NY USA Telephone: Ulmenstrasse 30 DE Frankfurt Germany Telephone: Jogailos 10 LT Vilnius Lithuania Telephone: Alberta 13 LV-101 Riga Latvia Telephone: Odd-Erik Tandberg Debt Capital Market Fixed Income & DCM Tel odd-erik.tandberg@seb.no Disclaimer This presentation is confidential and produced for private information of recipients only. All information contained in this presentation has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and the presentation is not to be relied upon as authoritative. To the extent permitted by applicable law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this presentation or its contents. Prior to entering into any transaction contemplated hereby (a Transaction ) you are urged to determine, without reliance upon us, the economic risks and merits, as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences of any such Transaction. In this regard, by accepting this presentation, you acknowledge that (a) we are not providing (and you are not relying on us for) legal, tax or accounting advice, (b) there may be legal, tax or accounting risks associated with any Transaction and (c) you should receive (and rely on) separate and qualified legal, tax and accounting advice. Any terms set forth in this presentation are intended for discussion purposes only. Any prices or levels contained herein are preliminary and indicative only and do not represent bids or offers. These indications are provided solely for your information and consideration, are subject to change at any time without notice and are not intended as a solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any instrument. The information contained in this presentation may include results of analyses from a quantitative model, which represent potential future events that may or may not be realized, and is not a complete analysis of every material fact representing any product. Any estimates included herein constitute our judgment as of the date hereof and are subject to change without any notice. We may make a market in these instruments for our customers and for our own account. Accordingly, we may have a position in any such instrument at any time