Danske Daily. Market movers today. Selected market news

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1 Investment Research General Market Conditions 7 April 24 Danske Daily Market movers today A quiet start to a quiet week. German industrial production for February is the main release today and is expected to rise.% m/m following a strong increase of.8% m/m in January. GDP for Q is currently tracking.7%. Tonight Fed's Bullard speaks and US credit data are released later in the evening. Rest of the week the main events will be BoJ (Tuesday), FOMC minutes (Wednesday), Chinese CPI (Friday) and US consumer confidence from the University of Michigan for April (Friday). Inflation will be the main focus in the Nordic economies this week, especially in Sweden where Thursday s inflation numbers are expected to show a fall to -.3%. In light of this, we expect the Riksbank to cut interest rates in July. We do not expect rates to be adjusted at Wednesday s meeting, although this cannot be ruled out. Selected market news The positive sentiment following Friday s US employment report did not last long and equity markets faced a strong sell-off towards market close. Losses were led by the strong momentum stocks of 24 and by selling in Tech and Bio-Tech. The NASDAQ composite index fell 2.6%, its worst single day performance since November 2, and the IBB NASDAQ Biotech ETF is now down almost 2% from its February peak. Stocks are mainly lower in Asia this morning but US equity futures are indicating some tentative stabilisation. The employment report was actually decent showing a 92k rise in total payrolls taking the three-month average to 78k which is not far from the pre-winter trend. The unemployment rate surprised by remaining at 6.7% but this was due to a rise in the labour force of 53k. As a result, Friday s report is likely to spark speculation as to whether we are finally seeing US discouraged workers return to the workforce as the economy is recovering. This would imply less potential for the unemployment rate to fall even if employment continues to recover and implies less upside pressure on wages. Overall, there is nothing in the report that should change the Fed s policy of ending its QE programme this year and also nothing that should make investors expect earlier rate hikes. The uptick in the participation rate and flat wage growth in March may help explain the rally in US Treasury bonds but this is likely also a result of investors being short going into the report. The -year yield has fallen to 2.72% and thus back towards the middle of recent months trading range. Market overview Note: * The itraxx Europe Index shows the spread development for the most liquid investment grade CDS contracts in the euro credit market. **The itraxx Europe Crossover show the spread development of the most liquid non-investment grade CDS contracts in the euro credit market. ***The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index shows the spread development for the most liquid investment grade CDS contracts in the US credit market. Source: Bloomberg 7:3 day +/-,% S&P5 (close) S&P5 fut (chng from close) Nikkei Hang Seng : 7:3 +/-, bp US 2y gov US y gov itraxx Europe (IG) itraxx Xover (Non IG) /-, % EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/GBP EUR/SEK EUR/NOK USD Oil Brent, USD Gold, USD Selected readings from Danske Bank Weekly Focus: Low inflation supports lower Swedish rates this summer T Chief Analyst Kasper Kirkegaard Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 5 of this report.

2 Scandi markets today Norway. With clear signs of a slowdown in oil-related industries but stronger growth in export-oriented industries, manufacturing indicators will be particularly important for assessing the sector's contribution to growth over the course of the year. Overall, industrial production picked up at the beginning of the year after falling in the autumn and both Statistics Norway's business tendency survey and the PMI indicate increased activity in Q. We therefore forecast growth in industrial production of.4% m/m in February, which is not enough to have any market impact but enough to confirm that the rumours of a collapse in oil-related industries are greatly exaggerated. Fixed Income markets Friday s payrolls number triggered a strong rally in both USD and EUR bonds. The report was neither weak nor strong and the market reaction probably says more about the market than about the economic implications of the data. However, apparently US fixed income investors were short going into the release, as 5yr rates plunged around 2bp afterwards. With the benefit of hindsight, the combination of a less than feared payback from weather and the small uptick in the unemployment rate (despite a healthy increase in the number of employees) portrays a pictures of less growth and more slack than expected. This also makes Fed Chairman Yellen s view (that there is still significant slack in the economy) more credible and suggests that the dots (Fed members rate projections) are more anchored. With a relative quiet week ahead in terms of data, Friday s employment data should provide some calm to the belly of the USD curve, which has been under pressure lately. In turn, this suggests that it should also be easier for the ECB to anchor the yield curve in the coming weeks. Finally, it might even add some room for spread tightening between EUR and USD rates in the 5yr and yr segment - the 5y5y segment is close to historical extremes. FX markets EUR/USD has been trading sideways since the ECB meeting last week and with the ECB likely to remain on hold for a while and the Fed to continue its tapering path, there are no indications that we are about to leave the range for now. Given that our inflation forecast is still well below the ECB forecast and given the very soft rhetoric from Draghi last week, we are now more certain that the ECB will eventually have to ease further. It also means that the peak in EUR/USD in this cycle might now be behind us and we still look for a lower EUR/USD on a 6- to 2-month horizon based on relative monetary policy. The next decisive event for EUR/USD could be the FOMC minutes from the March meeting, which are due on Wednesday. At the March meeting the FOMC surprised and revised up the rate path by 5bp by the end of 26 and it will be interesting to take a look at the considerations behind the update of the forward guidance. US S&P5 future Thu Fri Mon Wed Thu Mon US y gov yield Thu Fri Tue Wed Thu Mon Global FX EUR/USD (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS) Thu Fri Tue Wed Thu Mon Scandi FX EUR/SEK (LHS) EUR/NOK (RHS) Thu Fri Tue Wed Fri In the Scandi FX market, a couple of tier-two figures are due today: industrial production from Norway and household consumption from Sweden. None of these are likely to have a significant market impact and thus markets are likely to be in wait-and-see mode ahead of the important inflation figures from both countries released later this week and not least the Riksbank meeting on Thursday. We have changed our view on the Riksbank and now expect the central bank to cut rates in July and in light of this, we still see risk skewed to the upside for EUR/SEK in the coming months and we will probably see a test of the strong technical resistance level at 9.2 (December 24 high) here in April. The next technical level for EUR/SEK is the 23 high from December April 24

3 Key figures and events Monday, April 7, 24 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous :5 JPY Official reserves assets USD bn Mar : JPY Leading economic index, preliminary Index Feb : DEM Industrial production m/m y/y Feb.%.3% 4.7%.8% 5.% 9: DKK Industrial production m/m Feb.6%.6% 9:5 CHF CPI m/m y/y Mar.% -.% 9:3 SEK Budget balance SEK bn Mar 42.2 : EUR ECB's Mersch speaks in London : NOK Industrial production m/m y/y Feb.2% 2.5% : NOK Manufacturing Production m/m y/y Feb.4% -.4% 2.7% :3 EUR Sentix Investor Confidence Index Apr :45 USD Fed's Bullard (non-voter, dovish) speaks 2: USD Consumer credit USD bn Feb Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets 3 7 April 24

4 Today s market data: DOW JONES Grey line indicates closing of Danish markets NASDAQ 428 Grey line indicates opening of US markets month -.7% month.8% S&P5 865 Year-to-date.9% Year-to-date.2% NIKKEI (7:3) % EUR/USD Intraday EUR 7: 7:3 +/ JPY day -.95 Max ## GBP month Min ## NOK Year-t-date SEK DKK PLN USD 7: 7:3 +/- JPY day.74 month -.74 GBP month Year-to-date -.42 CHF Year-t-date * The chart plot s 7:3-23: Fri and 23: Sun t o 7:3 Mon -.9. STOCKS FX & COMMODITIES USD :3 YIELDS & INTEREST RATES Go ld, $ USD-Yields Intraday Spread, P o licy R ate 3M bp 7: 7:3 +/-, bp.48 USD2Y USDY USD USD Y Max.5 Max 2.8 EUR USD 3Y Min.4 Min 2.7 GBP JPY Y DKK SEK :3(-)* 7: +/-, bp NOK DEM Y PLN DKK Y S&P5 Intraday, % Eurostoxx Intraday, % Close +/ DJSTOXX % Max.7 Max.2 OM XC2 77.% -.3 Min Min OM XS3 37.%.6.5 OSE BX 562.5% +/- Oil, B rent, $ SEK Y USD2Y (lhs) USDY (rhs) NOK Y PLN Y * The chart plot s 7:3-23: Fri and 23: Sun t o 7:3 Mon * As of closing previous trading day 7:3 Close 3.68 CRB M future % -2.6% -.3% C R B, R aw Industrials Y Yield Spread to Germany USDJPYGBPFRF ITL DKKSEKNOKPLN US Yield Curve German Yield Curve ## M ax ## M ax ### ## M in ## M in ### USD2Y USD5Y USDY DEM2Y DEM5YR DEMY D-t-D +/-, bp (right axis) 7:3 (left axis) month ago (left axis) D-t-D +/-, bp (right axis) 7:3 (left axis) month ago (left axis) C redit spread, it raxx s. * Credit spreads Swap Spread, bp** 7: 7:3 +/- 7:3 day month USD Y Europe (IG) 7-2 JPY Y 2 2 HiVol 96-3 Xover (N-IG) :3(-)* 7: +/- EUR Y DKK Y 2 2 Finan. Sr SEK Y Finan. Sub NOK Y Non-finan. itraxx Europe (IG) (left axis) itraxx Xover (Non IG) (right axis) * As of closing previous trading day * Ask price ** Ask price 4 7 April 24

5 Disclosure This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S ( Danske Bank ). Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request. The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of highquality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors upon request. Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. Expected updates Danske Daily is updated on a daily basis. First date of publication Please see the front page of this research report for the first date of publication. Price-related data is calculated using the closing price from the day before publication. 5 7 April 24

6 General disclaimer This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e. financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect to any such financial instruments) ( Relevant Financial Instruments ). The research report has been prepared independently and solely on the basis of publicly available information that Danske Bank considers to be reliable. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this research report. The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date hereof. These opinions are subject to change, and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor of any other changes related to the information provided in this research report. This research report is not intended for retail customers in the United Kingdom or the United States. This research report is protected by copyright and is intended solely for the designated addressee. It may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, by any recipient for any purpose without Danske Bank s prior written consent. Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States This research report is distributed in the United States by Danske Markets Inc., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and subsidiary of Danske Bank, pursuant to SEC Rule 5a-6 and related interpretations issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The research report is intended for distribution in the United States solely to "U.S. institutional investors" as defined in SEC Rule 5a-6. Danske Markets Inc. accepts responsibility for this research report in connection with distribution in the United States solely to U.S. institutional investors. Danske Bank is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In addition, the research analysts of Danske Bank who have prepared this research report are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA, but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-u.s. jurisdiction. Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting Danske Markets Inc. directly and should be aware that investing in non- U.S. financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of non-u.s. issuers may not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be subject to the reporting and auditing standards of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. 6 7 April 24

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