Effects of Climate Change on Water Quality in the Yaquina Estuary, Oregon

Transcription

1 Portland State University PDXScholar Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations Geography Effects of Climate Change on Water Quality in the Yaquina Estuary, Oregon Cheryl A. Brown Western Ecology Division, US EPA Darrin Sharp Oregon State University Heejun Chang Portland State University Madeline Steele Portland State University Let us know how access to this document benefits you. Follow this and additional works at: Part of the Environmental Sciences Commons Citation Details Brown, Cheryl A., et al. "Effects of Climate Change on Water Quality in the Yaquina Estuary, Oregon." The Oregon Water Conference, This Presentation is brought to you for free and open access. It has been accepted for inclusion in Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations by an authorized administrator of PDXScholar. For more information, please contact

2 Effects of Climate Change on Water Quality in the Yaquina Estuary, Oregon Cheryl A. Brown 1, Darrin Sharp 2, Heejun Chang 3 & Madeline Steele 3 1 Western Ecology Division, US EPA 2 Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, OSU 3 Portland State University

3 Study Background Predicting CC threats to key estuarine habitats & ecosystem services. US EPA, USGS, USDA, USFS, USFWS, Oregon DSL Nature Conservancy, OCCRI, OIMB, PSU 2

4 Human activities Increased Air temperatures Increased greenhouse Gas concentrations Intensified atmospheric Pressure gradients Increased UV Increased Stream Temperatures Changes in Precipitation & river inflow Increase storm frequency Sea level rise Intensified Upwelling? Increased CO 2 Decreased ph Increased water temperature Modified from Harley et al. (2006) 3

5 Climate Change Impacts Are Expected to Vary With Estuary Type Marine Riverine Netarts Yaquina Coquille

6 Methods Downscaled Scenarios from NARCCAP Freshwater Inflow Model Estuary Hydrodynamic Model Steady freshwater inflow cases for sea level ranging from present conditions to 1.5 m rise Simulations of annual cycle (2004) with increase in air temperature and stream temperature + sea level rise 5

7 NARCCAP Projections A2 Emission Scenario GFDL CGCM3 HADCM3 CCSM present Provide Boundary Conditions MM5 RegCM3 CRCM HADRM3 RSM WRF

8 RCM3 CRCM Study Area Map Toledo showing Yaquina Estuary with South Blodgett Beach, Toledo, Elk City, Blodgett, and Corvallis Corvallis HRM3 ECPC Water Temperature Air Temperature NARCCAP Model 7

9 Air Temperature (deg C) Air Temperature Observations and NARCCAP Reference HRM3_hadcm3 CRCM_cgcm3 CRCM_ccsm WRFG_ccsm RCM3_gfdl Ensemble Air Temperature 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Month

10 Difference Between Future and Reference Air Temperature (deg C) HRM3_hadcm3 CRCM_cgcm3 CRCM_ccsm WRFG_ccsm RCM3_gfdl 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 6/19/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 9 Month

11 Discharge Results 6/19/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 10

12 Freshwater Inflow Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS; Leavesley et al ) 11

13 6/19/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 12

14 Ensemble Mean 25 Percent Change in Total Flow

15 Estuarine Modeling Response Variables: Salinity & Temperature Steady Discharge Simulations Includes freshwater inflow & tidal forcing Annual average used to impose temperature gradients. Sea level varied from present to +1.5 m Simulations of the effect of increased air temperature and sea level rise. 14

16 30 ~ 2 psu Salinity (psu) A Present 60 cm 120 cm 0 6/19/ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Freshwater Inflow (m 3 s -1 )

17 Present cm 120 cm Salinity (psu) 20 ~ 5 psu B /19/ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Freshwater Inflow (m 3 s -1 )

18 Present cm 120 cm Salinity (psu) 20 ~ 5-7 psu C Freshwater Inflow (m 3 s -1 ) 6/19/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 17

19 Projections of Riverine Inflow Steady Discharge Relationships Salinity Projections 6/19/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 18

20 35 Median Monthly Salinity (psu) /19/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 19 Month

21 Median Monthly Salinity (psu) Present Future Discharge Future Discharge + SLR = 120 cm /19/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 20 Month

22 Climate Change Impacts on Estuarine Water Temperature Base Case of 2004 Includes tidal forcing and river discharge Compared to 2004 observations Projected increase in air temperature and river temperature at Elk City 21

23 Water Temperature of Freshwater Inflow 25 Water Temperature (deg C) Air Temperature (deg C) 22

24 B C A 6/19/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 23

25 Water Temperature (deg C) Location C Water Temp Results Julian Day Present 2 deg increase 24

26 Difference in Temperature (deg C) Location C Mean Difference = 1.1 deg 60 cm SLR Difference = 1.0 deg Julian Day 25

27 Water Temperature (deg C) Present 2 deg increase /19/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 26 Julian Day Location B

28 Location B Temperature Difference (deg C) deg + 60 cm SLR 2 deg Mean Difference = 0.9 deg 60 cm SLR Difference = 0.6 deg Julian Day U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 27

29 25 Location A Present 2 deg increase Water Temperature (deg C) Mean Difference = 0.4 deg 60 cm SLR Difference = 0.4 deg Julian Day 28

30 Conclusions High degree of uncertainty in future projections Need to present results in a manner that remain useful as projections evolve. Steady discharge simulations are a useful way to determine which portions of the estuary exhibit strongest response. Months with largest change in discharge may not translate to largest change in salinity. 29

31 Future Research Directions Other metrics salt delivery to wetlands Other types of estuaries More modeling of water quality Upwelling Link to biologic end points Incorporate water withdrawls 30

32 Acknowledgements This research was funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Geological Survey. 31

33 RCM3 CRCM Study Area Map Toledo showing Yaquina Estuary with South Blodgett Beach, Toledo, Elk City, Blodgett, and Corvallis Corvallis HRM3 ECPC Water Temperature Air Temperature NARCCAP Model 32

34 Median Monthly Salinity (psu) Present Future Discharge Future Discharge + SLR = 120 cm Steady Discharge Simulations /19/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 33 Month

35 6/19/2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 34