Long-term growth prospects and no oil exposure

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1 Long-term growth prospects and no oil exposure Fondsfinans Research Sparebank 1 Ringerike Hadeland- Update Recommendation: BUY Target NOK December 2014 Prepared by Analyst: Geir Kristiansen, Fondsfinans AS, tel: , This report was prepared by an analyst engaged by Fondsfinans AS, the Norwegian affiliate of Fondsfinans Inc., who is not registered as a research analyst with FINRA or subject to FINRA rules governing research. See page 14 of this report for Important Disclosure Information. 1

2 Long-term growth prospects and no oil exposure INVESTMENT CASE SpareBank 1 Ringerike Hadeland (RING) has been outperforming our expectations on most measures pretax estimates are increased by 12% and we upgrade the target price to NOK 170 (152). In the long-term we see improved communications as growth trigger for the region. Banks have cut deposit rates more than lending rates. Low external re-financing rates will contribute to resilient margins in our forecast horizon. We have increased NII estimates while non-interest income is unchanged in our 2015/2016 estimates We expect higher, but still moderate loan losses. The region is not directly exposed to the oil sector, but will be affected by a general economic downturn RING has a ECC-ratio of 97% and is thus not affected by dilutive effect of dividends. Our target price implies a P/B of 0.93x2014E and a P/E of 9.4x2016E. We now expect the bank to generate a long-term RoE of about 10%, but believe that it will take a while before this is reflected in the valuation of the ECC 2

3 Estimates up mainly due to resilient margins ESTIMATES Changes in estimates Estimate changes Curr. Prev. Curr. Prev. Change (%) NOKm 2015E 2015E 2016E 2016E 2015E 2016E Net interest income % 14.2 % Total revenues % 5.3 % OPEX % -3.3 % Pre-provision profit % 13.0 % Loan losses % 21.8 % Pre-tax profit (PTP) % 12.0 % Net profit % 12.0 % EPEC (NOK) % 12.3 % Dividend (NOK) % 12.3 % Source: Fondsfinans research Higher NII due to cheaper funding, but still lower in 2015 from 2014, in line with guidance Marginally lower cost level; cost/income is down in line with the sector Higher, but still moderate loan losses Source: Fondsfinans research 3

4 Moderate lending growth lower transferred volumes LENDING Customer lending (NOKm) and growth NOKb % % 3.51 % 5.12 % 4.88 % 6.58 % 7.49 % 5.18 % 4.50 % % 8.0 % 7.0 % 6.0 % 5.0 % 4.0 % 3.0 % 2.0 % 1.0 % RING expects lower credit demand the coming quarters, particularly from corporations. In the long-term, better communications will trigger growth in the region due to proximity to Oslo 0 Gross lending to customers Growth YoY 0.0 % We expect loan growth to fall from 5.7% in 2014E to 2.6% in 2016E 57% retail loans, 68% included loans transferred to mortgage company Source: SR Bank, Fondsfinans research 4

5 SPAREBANK 1 RINGERIKE HADELAND - 3Q14 UPDATE Lower funding costs increase margins NII Net interest income and margin NOKm % 1.62 % 1.69 % 1.73 % 1.64 % 1.62 % 1.62 % 1.60 % % NII NIM % 1.80 % 1.60 % 1.40 % 1.20 % 1.00 % 0.80 % 0.60 % 0.40 % Deposit rates have been cut more than lending rates 73% deposit ratio vs. average of 70% among savings banks Falling external re-financing rates will contribute to resilient net margins Source: SpareBank 1 Nord Norge, Fondsfinans research 5

6 FONDSFINANS RESEARCH - NORWEGIAN FINANCIALS Substantial reduction in long term funding costs LONG TERM FUNDING COST 6

7 Cost/Income stabilizing below 45% OPERATING COSTS Cost/Income NOKm % 47.3 % 50.4 % 44.8 % 44.7 % 45.9 % 47.5 % % 40.0 % 80 % 60% 50% 40% RING is performing about in line with peers on cost efficiency OPEX C/I 30% 20% 10% 0% We see a falling trend in cost/income going forward, due to change in customer behavior, i.e. increased use of digital platforms Source: SR Bank,, Fondsfinans research 7

8 Low loan losses not exposed to the oil sector LOAN LOSSES Nominal and relative loan losses NOKm % 0.20% 0.18% 0.16% 0.14% 0.12% 0.10% 0.08% 0.06% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% We increase loan loss forecasts going forward due to increased uncertainty and lower growth in the Norwegian economy The region and the bank are not directly exposed to the oil industry LLP LLP in % of AGL (12m rolling average) 20% real estate exposure is a possible long-term risk factor Source: SR Bank, Fondsfinans research 8

9 FONDSFINANS RESEARCH - NORWEGIAN FINANCIALS Large local banks Pricing (2015E) VALUATION Price/Earnings Price/Book SOR 9.88 RING 0.86 RING 9.12 SOR 0.82 ROE SPOG AVG SBVG HELG TOTG SOAG SPOG AVG TOTG SBVG SOAG HELG Yield SOAG TOTG SPOG AVG SBVG 11.5 % 11.2 % 10.8 % 9.4 % 9.4 % SPOG SBVG RING SOR AVG 8.92% 8.13% 7.45% 6.81% 11.97% RING 9.2 % TOTG 6.02% SOR 9.0 % HELG 4.72% HELG 8.2 % SOAG 4.41% SADG 5.9 % SADG 2.86% 9

10 A future yield case valued 34% below book VALUATION SHARE PRICE NOK Key figures Key figures E 2015E 2016E 2Q14 3Q14 (NOKm) Net interest income Other op.revenues (NII) Total operating revenues Operating costs Pre-provision profit Loan losses (PPP) Pre-tax profit (PTP) Taxes Net profit EPEC BPS DPS Net interest income 1.72 % 1.65 % 1.64 % 1.55 % 1.75 % 1.60 % 1.62 % Loan losses (%) 0.08 % 0.11 % 0.02 % 0.12 % 0.24 % % 0.02 % Core equity capital 16.2 % 15.6 % 17.8 % 17.8 % 18.0 % 17.0 % 17.6 % ratio Yield(CET 1) 7.6 % 7.7 % 8.1 % 6.5 % 7.4 % P/E P/B ROE 7.5 % 9.8 % 11.6 % 9.2 % 10.1 % 12.8 % 13.0 % 2016 pretax estimates are increased by 12% and we upgrade the target price to NOK 170 (152) Banks have cut deposit rates more than lending rates. Low external refinancing rates will contribute to resilient margins in our forecast horizon We expect higher, but still moderate loan losses. The region is not directly exposed to the oil sector, but will be affected by a general economic downturn Our target price implies a P/B of 0.93x2014E and a P/E of 9.4x2016E Source: Fondsfinans research 10

11 Full year and quarterly estimates ESTIMATES INCOME STATEMENT E 2015E 2016E 3Q14 4Q14E 1Q15E 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E Net interest income Net commission income Other income Total core income Total expenses Pre-provision profit (core items) Loan loss provision Pre-tax profit (core items) Total financial income Pre-tax profit Net profit EPEC (rep.) BALANCE SHEET E 2015E 2016E 3Q14 4Q14E 1Q15E 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E Net lending to customers 14,667 15,330 15,910 16,320 15,339 15,330 15,389 15,607 15,786 15,910 Total assets 18,038 18,828 19,541 20,044 18,839 18,828 18,900 19,168 19,389 19,541 Total equity 2,454 2,432 2,524 2,628 2,542 2,432 2,489 2,548 2,602 2,524 KEY FIGURES E 2015E 2016E 3Q14 4Q14E 1Q15E 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E ROE 9.81 % % 9.21 % % % 9.48 % 9.38 % 9.33 % 8.37 % 9.02 % ROE (core banking) 6.26 % 6.98 % 6.16 % 6.91 % % 9.06 % 8.96 % 8.91 % 7.97 % 8.60 % ROA 1.33 % 1.54 % 1.19 % 1.31 % 1.71 % 1.24 % 1.24 % 1.24 % 1.11 % 1.18 % RORWA 2.10 % 2.40 % 1.85 % 2.05 % 2.74 % 1.97 % 1.97 % 1.95 % 1.75 % 1.86 % RORWA (core banking) 1.47 % 1.51 % 1.43 % 1.70 % 2.61 % 1.90 % 1.86 % 1.87 % 1.69 % 1.80 % C/I 46 % 48 % 47 % 44 % 40 % 47 % 46 % 46 % 48 % 47 % C/I adj. 55 % 53 % 54 % 49 % 41 % 48 % 47 % 46 % 49 % 48 % Costs in % of total assets 1.55 % 1.53 % 1.47 % 1.47 % 1.49 % 1.52 % 1.44 % 1.44 % 1.49 % 1.51 % Loan loss ratio (gross loans) 0.11 % 0.02 % 0.12 % 0.24 % 0.02 % 0.05 % 0.08 % 0.11 % 0.14 % 0.17 % Net interest margin (normalised) 1.65 % 1.64 % 1.55 % 1.75 % 1.62 % 1.62 % 1.57 % 1.51 % 1.52 % 1.60 % Deposit-to-loan ratio Net Loans/Equity CET 1 ratio (transition rule) 15.6 % 17.8 % 17.8 % 18.0 % 17.6 % 17.8 % 17.9 % 17.9 % 17.9 % 17.8 % 11 Source: Fondsfinans research

12 We rate SpareBank 1 Ringerike Hadeland LOW risk RISK ASSESSMENT High housing prices and high gross debt level to private individuals could trigger a negative price reaction in the future SpareBank 1 Ringerike Hadeland has substantial exposure to real estate activities. Higher interest rates and/or lower activity level may trigger loan losses in this sector The ECC has low liquidity. A position may be difficult to liquidate in rough market conditions 12

13 Share information SPAREBANK 1 RINGERIKE HADELAND Share data Share data Sector Banks Bloomberg RING NO Equity Risk rating Low Outstanding shares (million) 13.9 Market cap (NOK billion) 2.0 Total assets (NOK billion) 18.8 Net lending (NOK billion) 15.3 Free float 50 % Average volume (1000s last 12m) 1.7 High/low 52w 125.0/ Weight PCC index 2.97 % Rel. Perf 3/6/12-3/ -5/ -6 Abs. Perf. 3/6/12 2/ 7/ 13 Shareholders Major shareholders as of Ringerikes Sparebank 30.0 % 4,184 Jevnaker Lunne Spare 20.0 % 2,789 Gran Sparebankstifte 20.0 % 2,789 Fres As 3.2 % 450 Mp Pension 2.2 % 302 Gjensidige Forsikrin 1.4 % 190 Ringeriks Kraft As 1.1 % 153 Aka As 1.1 % 150 Nordenfjelske Bykred 0.6 % 80 Terra Fondsforvaltni 0.5 % 75 Wenaas Kapital As 0.4 % 62 First Partners Holdi 0.4 % 57 Total number of EC shares 80.9 % 13,947 Source: Bloomberg, Fondsfinans research 13

14 Definitions of ratings Buy Low risk: with a potential of min 5%. Medium risk: with a potential of min 10%. High risk: with a potential of min 20%. Neutral Low risk: -5% to +5%. Medium risk: -10% to +10%. High risk: -20% to +20%. Sell Low risk: min 5%. Medium risk: min 10%. High risk: min 20%. Risk ratings are based on price volatility, fundamental criteria and perceived risk. Ratings are: Low (L), Medium (M) and High (H). Target: Our valuation as of today. Time frame of target: Target is what we value the share as of today. Recommendation distribution as of : Companies in each recommendation category that have been investment banking clients over the past 12 months: Recommendation No Percent Recommendation No Percent Buy % Buy 4 9 % Neutral % Neutral 0 0 % Sell 4 6 % Sell 0 0 % Total % Total 4 Our intention is to issue preview and update research on a quarterly basis. Our investment recommendation is elaborated in accordance with The Norwegian Securities Dealers Associations standards. This report has not been sent to the company for correction of any factual errors. Fondsfinans is organized with Chinese walls between the Corporate Department and the Research/Broking Department. In addition, Fondsfinans has internal instructions and guidelines for handling sensitive information. The analyst receives compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability, including investment banking activities. Fondsfinans is under supervision of The Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway. The recommendation has not been changed from BUY. The previous recommendation was issued Ownership per in Sparebank 1 RINGERIKE HADELAND: Analyst (including his/her closely related persons or companies): 0, corresponding to 0% of the company share capital Employees (including their respective closely related persons or companies): 0, corresponding to 0% of the company share capital Group Fondsfinans (including the holdings of its Chairman, his spouse and their closely related companies, Erik Must AS and its 100% controlled subsidiaries): 0, corresponding to 0.0% of the company share capital Fondsfinans may hold shares in Sparebank 1 Ringerike Hadeland as result of daily trading/market making. Information on such holdings is not given when of non-significant value. Fondsfinans do not act as market maker in Sparebank 1 Ringeriket Hadeland. Fondsfinans has not acted as corporate adviser, lead manager in IPO etc. during the past 12 months. This report was issued and distributed Disclaimer Our research and general presentations, also available at our website are provided for information purposes only. They should not be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any financial instruments. Any opinion expressed are subject to change without prior notice. Our research and presentations are based on information from various sources believed to be reliable. Although all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information herein is not misleading Fondsfinans AS makes no representation or warranty expressed or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither Fondsfinans AS, its partners and employees, nor any other person connected with our research and presentations, accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss of any kind arising out of the use or reliance on the information given. They do not take into account the specific investment objectives and financial situation of any recipient. Investors seeking to buy or sell any financial instruments discussed or recommended in our research or in separate presentations, should seek independent financial advice relating thereto. Our research and materials from separate presentations may not be distributed, quoted from or reproduced for any purpose without written approval by Fondsfinans AS. Disclosure of interests Fondsfinans AS is constantly seeking investment-banking mandates, and may at any time perform investment banking or other services or solicit investment banking or other mandates from companies covered in our analysis and presentations. Fondsfinans AS may from time to time as part of its investment services hold positions in securities covered in our research and presentations. In order to avoid any conflict of interests Fondsfinans AS and its employees will always follow very strictly all internal regulations, recommendations from the Norwegian securities dealers association and relevant legislation and regulations from the supervisory official authorities. Internal holdings will be specified as part of shareholder information. Distribution in the United States Research reports are prepared by Fondsfinans AS for information purposes only. Fondsfinans AS and its employees are not subject to the rules of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) governing research analyst conflicts. The research reports are intended for distribution in the United States solely to major U.S. institutional investors as defined in rule 15a-6 under the United States securities exchange act of 1934, as amended and may not be furnished to any other person in the United States. Each major U.S. institutional investor that receives a copy of a Fondsfinans AS research report by its acceptance thereof represents and agrees that it shall not distribute or provide copies to any other person. Reports are prepared by Fondsfinans AS and distributed to major U.S. institutional investors under rule 15a-6(a)(2). These research reports are prepared by Fondsfinans AS and distributed in the United States by Fondsfinans Inc. Under rule 15a-6(a)(2). any U.S. Person receiving these reports that desires to effect transactions in any securities discussed within the report should call or write Fondsfinans Inc., a member of FINRA. 14

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