Weekly Financials Financial robotics

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1 Weekly Financials Financial robotics Fondsfinans Research Norwegian Financials 13 June 2016 Prepared by Analysts: Geir Kristiansen, Fondsfinans AS, tel: , Ulrik Årdal Zürcher, Fondsfinans AS, tel: , Please note that Fondsfinans AS is acting as Joint Lead Manager in the NOK 350 million rights issue in Sandnes Sparebank. As Fondsfinans acts as Joint Lead Manager in the rights issue we will refrain from publishing a recommendation or target for SADG until the end of the silent period (c.july 2016) This report was prepared by an analyst engaged by Fondsfinans AS, the Norwegian affiliate of Fondsfinans Inc., who is not registered as a research analyst with FINRA or subject to FINRA rules governing research. This report is not a product of Fondsfinans Inc. See page 23 of this report for Important Disclosure Information. 1

2 Financial robotics IN FOCUS THIS WEEK Oslo FinTech week s most exciting topic(s): Automation - Near term efficiency gains possible within back office function and financial advisory - Great potential for more automated retail mortgages distribution - One back office robot equivalent to 3 human FTEs and cost <NOK 100,000 a year Oslo Børs VPS Key takeaways from CFO roadshow BUY, TP NOK Blockchain technology also a buzz word for stock exchanges and CSD s - NOK 34m write-down in 1Q16 may not affect dividend for VPS has growth potential in vertical integration We hold a positive view on the sector Brexit a short-term concern - We prefer banks with low/moderate exposure to oil and strong balance sheets - Lower economic growth manageable for Norwegian savings bank - Our top-picks in the sector are MING and SOAG 2

3 Automatic credit scoring Automatic granting of credit Efficiency gains from increasing automation of the mortgage underwriting process are substantial AUTOMATION Our perceptions is that we are quickly moving towards automation in the mortgage underwriting segment Consumer loans Mortgages Mortgages 2.0 Highly scalable Human bottle necks Highly scalable Human supervisors/back-up Barriers to overcome for automation of mortgage underwriting process: its a big decision for borrower (trust), AI deficiencies (current bottleneck is voice recognition - lots of dialects in Norway) and compliance Progress is being made in the AI and compliance fields: Regulators and authorization organizations are preparing for the age of the robots, AI technology is basically ready in the English language (how long will it take to sort out the peculiarities of Norwegian?) 3

4 Key takeways from roadshow in London/New York OSLO BØRS VPS Key figures E 2017E 2018E 1Q16 2Q16E Revenues , EBITDA EBIT adj Net Income Earnings adj Blockchain technology - Possible disruptor - Cost-cutting potential - Australian ASX looking into it EPS adj EBITDA growth % -3% 4% 12% 8% 2% -4% EBITDA margin % 49% 50% 52% 54% 47% 50% EV/EBIT P/E adj DPS Dividend yield % 8.0 % 8.2 % 9.0 % 9.8 % Source: Oslo Børs VPS / Fondsfinans Research Upside on dividend - NOK 24m write-down may not affect dividend capacity - Needs approval from FSA - Possible NOK 0.6 per share upside to our forecast for 2016 VPS may integrate vertically - Early stage Source: Fondsfinans Research 4

5 Post reporting season target changes in local banks and SOR No changes in recommendations RECOMMENDATIONS Overview of our recommendations Recommendation Target Price Diff.(%) HELG BUY % JAEREN BUY % MING BUY % MORG BUY % NONG BUY % NTSG BUY % RING HOLD % SBVG BUY % SKUE HOLD % SOAG BUY % SPOG HOLD % SRBANK BUY % SVEG BUY % SOR HOLD % TOTG BUY % Please note that Fondsfinans AS is acting as Joint Lead Manager in the NOK 350 million rights issue in Sandnes Sparebank. As Fondsfinans acts as Joint Lead Manager in the rights issue we will refrain from publishing a recommendation or target for SADG until the end of the silent period (c.july 2016) 5

6 Key figure tables KEY FIGURE TABLES Share Target Div Yield Div Yield Div Yield Market Regional Banks Ticker price price P/E-16E P/E-17E P/B-16E P/B-17E ROE-16E ROE-17E ROE-18E -16E -17E -18E Cap (bn) MING Sparebank 1 SMN % 10.8 % 9.8 % 8.3 % 10.2 % 11.2 % 6.3 MORG Sparebank Møre % 8.8 % 7.1 % 7.7 % 6.4 % 6.4 % 1.8 NONG Sparebank 1 Nord-Norge % 11.1 % 9.3 % 7.0 % 8.8 % 9.2 % 4.0 SRBANK Sparebank 1 SR-Bank % 7.1 % 7.5 % 3.0 % 3.7 % 6.8 % 10.7 SVEG Sparebanken Vest % 10.2 % 10.3 % 4.5 % 7.4 % 10.8 % 2.0 SOR Sparebanken Sør % 7.0 % 6.3 % 7.9 % 7.1 % 6.7 % 1.0 Median % 9.5 % 8.4 % 7.4 % 7.2 % 8.0 % Mean % 9.2 % 8.4 % 6.4 % 7.3 % 8.5 % Share Target Div Yield Div Yield Div Yield Market Local Banks Ticker price price P/E-16E P/E-17E P/B-16E P/B-17E ROE-16E ROE-17E ROE-18E -16E -17E -18E Cap (bn) HELG Helgeland Sparebank % 9.1 % 6.6 % 8.0 % 8.0 % 8.0 % 1.1 JAEREN Jæren Sparebank % 6.7 % 4.9 % 6.8 % 6.6 % 5.0 % 0.4 SKUE Skue Sparebank % 7.3 % 6.0 % 5.0 % 4.7 % 4.0 % 0.2 SBVG Sparebank 1 BV % 7.5 % 7.5 % 4.3 % 6.8 % 7.1 % 0.4 NTSG Sparebank 1 Nøtterøy Tønsberg % 8.4 % 6.9 % 3.8 % 5.2 % 6.2 % 0.1 RING Sparebank 1 Ringerike Hadeland % 9.3 % 7.6 % 4.6 % 5.1 % 4.8 % 2.4 SOAG Sparebank 1 Østfold Akershus % 11.2 % 10.3 % 5.3 % 6.7 % 8.6 % 1.4 SPOG Sparebanken Øst % 8.9 % 9.3 % 8.1 % 7.2 % 7.8 % 1.0 TOTG Totens Sparebank % 7.5 % 7.2 % 5.2 % 7.6 % 7.5 % 0.5 Median % 7.9 % 7.0 % 5.3 % 6.7 % 7.1 % Mean % 8.3 % 7.2 % 5.7 % 6.4 % 6.6 % Source: Fondsfinans Research 6

7 Regional banks trades at large discount to DNB RELATIVE PRICING Price/Book DNB vs regional banks On average, the regional banks have been traded at a 12% premium to DNB The last 5 years, the average discount has been 16% 0.0 DnB Regionals 7

8 Performance Nordic and Norwegian banks PERFORMANCE LAST MONTH SELECTED NORDIC BANKS Total return Nordic banks last month Total return Norwegian banks last month DNB 3.6 % SRBANK 7.2 % OSEBX 1.8 % NONG 5.0 % OSEEX 0.9 % DNB 3.6 % SWEDA -0.2 % MING 2.3 % DANSKE -0.9 % SVEG 0.9 % NDA -1.0 % SPOG 0.4 % SEBA -1.6 % HELG 0.4 % SHBA -4.6 % MORG -1.1 % SBVG -1.2 % SOAG -1.6 % RING -3.4 % TOTG -5.5 % SADG % 8

9 Regional banks Pricing VALUATION Price/Earnings 2016E Price/Book 2016E SVEG 7.6 NONG 0.78 SRBANK 7.4 SVEG 0.72 NONG 7.3 MORG 0.70 AVG 6.8 AVG 0.68 MORG 6.5 MING 0.67 MING SOR SOR SRBANK ROE 2016E Yield 2016E MING 11.5 % MING 8.3 % NONG 11.4 % SOR 7.9 % MORG 10.8 % MORG 7.7 % AVG SVEG SOR SRBANK 9.9 % 9.3 % 8.4 % 8.3 % NONG AVG SVEG SRBANK 3.0 % 4.5 % 7.0 % 6.4 % 9

10 Local banks Pricing VALUATION Price/Earnings 2016E Price/Book 2016E TOTG RING SPOG SBVG JAEREN AVG SKUE NTSG HELG SOAG SADG SPOG RING TOTG SOAG AVG SBVG HELG SKUE JAEREN NTSG SADG ROE 2016E Yield 2016E SOAG SPOG HELG RING AVG SKUE NTSG JAEREN SBVG TOTG SADG 11.2 % 10.0 % 9.8 % 9.0 % 8.2 % 7.7 % 7.6 % 7.1 % 6.8 % 6.5 % 6.0 % SPOG HELG JAEREN AVG SADG SOAG TOTG SKUE RING SBVG NTSG 8.1 % 8.0 % 6.8 % 5.7 % 5.5 % 5.3 % 5.2 % 5.0 % 4.6 % 4.3 % 3.8 % 10

11 DNB attractive compared to Nordic peers CONSENSUS KEY FIGURES FOR NORDIC BANKS NORDIC BANKS Price P/E adjusted P/B ROE Dividend yield Consensus - key figures Curr. Close 2016E 2017E 2018E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2016E 2017E 2018E DANSKE DKK % 11.6 % 11.8 % 4.6 % 5.0 % 5.4 % DNB NOK % 9.5 % 10.1 % 4.8 % 6.1 % 7.1 % NORDEA SEK % 11.0 % 11.3 % 7.4 % 7.6 % 7.8 % SEBA SEK % 12.0 % 12.6 % 6.6 % 7.0 % 7.2 % SHBA SEK % 11.5 % 11.6 % 4.8 % 5.2 % 5.5 % SWEDA SEK % 13.6 % 13.8 % 6.6 % 6.6 % 6.9 % Median peers % 11.5 % 11.7 % 5.7 % 6.3 % 7.0 % Mean peers % 11.6 % 11.9 % 5.8 % 6.2 % 6.6 % Source: Bloomberg, Fondsfinans 11

12 Expected RoE ~10% on much lower leverage than peers CHANGES P/B (16E) vs. RoE (avg E) P/B 1.9 Multiple decompression in Sweden amidst increasing regulatory pressure SHBA SWEDA 1.3 SEBA NDA DANSKE DNB 0.7 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% ROE 6 months ago Current 3 months ago Source: Fondsfinans Research, Bloomberg 12

13 Price/Book Discount / Premium (%) DNB seems attractive with a significant discount to Swedish peers P/B FOR DNB RELATIVE TO NORDIC PEERS 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% Diff DNB vs Nordic Banks Diff DNB vs Swedish Banks 13

14 Attractively valued, efficient operations and well capitalized RELATIVE CONSENSUS PRICING P/B vs. ROE (average 2016E-2018E) P/B SHBA SWEDA R² = 68% DANSKE NDA SEBA DNB 0.8 NONG 0.6 SVEG MING MORG SRBANK % 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% ROE Large European banks Large Scandinavian banks Norwegian savings banks* * Saving banks not included in regression line 14

15 All regional banks are inexpensive on price/book RELATIVE CONSENSUS PRICING; P/B 2016E VS AVERAGE ROE 2015E-2017E P/B vs. ROE (average 2015E-2017E) P/B 0.80 NONG 0.75 SR-Banks premium has disappeared SVEG MORG MING The stock market discounts massive loan losses 0.60 SRBANK % 8.5 % 9.0 % 9.5 % 10.0 % 10.5 % 11.0 % ROE 15

16 Attractively valued local savings banks RELATIVE CONSENSUS PRICING; P/B 2016E VS AVERAGE ROE 2015E-2017E P/B vs. ROE (average 2015E-2017E) P/B RING SPOG 0.80 Relative pricing based on consensus indicates SOAG and HELG to be most attractive TOTG SBVG HELG SOAG Pricing dependent both on ROE and yield % 6.0 % 7.0 % 8.0 % 9.0 % 10.0 % 11.0 % ROE 16

17 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Relative P/B Scandinavian Banks vs SWEDA RELATIVE P/B PRICING TO SWEDA Relative P/B 3Y vs SWEDA 50% 30% 10% -10% -30% -50% -70% Danske vs SWEDA SEBA vs SWEDA SHBA vs SWEDA NDA vs SWEDA DNB vs SWEDA 17

18 Large European banks P/B and P/E CONSENSUS P/B and P/E 2015 estimates 25 P/E Scandinavia United Kingdom France Spain ITA GER CH NL Source: Bloomberg P/B P/E 18

19 All banks have CET 1 ratios above 11.5% REGULATORY CAPITAL CET 1 by end 2016E SOR NONG MORG SVEG MING SRBANK 15.1 % 14.8 % 14.7 % 14.6 % 14.5 % 14.3 % Most banks have target CET 1 ratios in the 14-15% range by 2016 JAEREN SPOG SBVG HELG TOTG SKUE SOAG RING SADG NTSG 19.9 % 17.1 % 17.0 % 16.0 % 16.0 % 15.7 % 15.6 % 15.6 % 14.8 % 14.0 % Source: Fondsfinans Research 19

20 Bond spreads have narrowed not priced into bank shares/eccs BOND PRICING SAVINGS BANKS Senior bonds large banks Senior bonds smaller banks 20

21 Regional savings banks Strong dividend capacity CET 1 ratios 16.0 % 15.0 % 14.0 % 13.0 % We believe the regional banks will reach a CET 1 of 14.5% in 2016 SRBANK targets 14.0% in % 11.0 % 10.0 % 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16E 2Q16E 3Q16E 4Q16E 1Q17E 2Q17E 3Q17E MING MORG NONG SRBANK SVEG CET 1 req 21

22 Definitions of ratings Buy > 10% Hold From -10% to 10% Sell < -10% Target: Our valuation as of today. Time frame of target: Target is what we value the share as of today. Recommendation distribution as of : Companies in each recommendation category that have been investment banking clients over the past 12 months: Recommendation Percent Recommendation Percent Buy 65 % Buy 9 % Hold 35 % Hold 0 % Sell 0 % Sell 0 % Total 100 % Total Our intention is to issue preview and update research on a quarterly basis. Our investment recommendation is elaborated in accordance with The Norwegian Securities Dealers Associations standards. This report has not been sent to the companies mentioned for correction of any factual errors. Fondsfinans is organized with Chinese walls between the Corporate Department and the Research/Broking Department. In addition, Fondsfinans has internal instructions and guidelines for handling sensitive information. The analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability, including investment banking activities. Fondsfinans is under supervision of The Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway. For ownership and information related to market making and corporate advice: Please refer to the latest company updates available on our web site. Fondsfinans may hold shares in the companies as a result of daily trading/market making. Information on such holdings is not given when of non-significant value. Please note that Fondsfinans AS is acting as Joint Lead Manager in the NOK 350 million rights issue in Sandnes Sparebank. As Fondsfinans acts as Joint Lead Manager in the rights issue we will refrain from publishing a recommendation or target for SADG until the end of the silent period (c.july 2016). Disclaimer Our research and general presentations, also available at our website are provided for information purposes only. They should not be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any financial instruments. Any opinion expressed are subject to change without prior notice. Our research and presentations are based on information from various sources believed to be reliable. Although all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information herein is not misleading Fondsfinans AS makes no representation or warranty expressed or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither Fondsfinans AS, its partners and employees, nor any other person connected with our research and presentations, accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss of any kind arising out of the use or reliance on the information given. They do not take into account the specific investment objectives and financial situation of any recipient. Investors seeking to buy or sell any financial instruments discussed or recommended in our research or in separate presentations, should seek independent financial advice relating thereto. Our research and materials from separate presentations may not be distributed, quoted from or reproduced for any purpose without written approval by Fondsfinans AS. Disclosure of interests Fondsfinans AS is constantly seeking investment-banking mandates, and may at any time perform investment banking or other services or solicit investment banking or other mandates from companies covered in our analysis and presentations. Fondsfinans AS may from time to time as part of its investment services hold positions in securities covered in our research and presentations. In order to avoid any conflict of interests Fondsfinans AS and its employees will always follow very strictly all internal regulations, recommendations from the Norwegian securities dealers association and relevant legislation and regulations from the supervisory official authorities. Internal holdings will be specified as part of shareholder information. Distribution in the United States Research reports are prepared by Fondsfinans AS for information purposes only. Fondsfinans AS and its employees are not subject to the rules of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) governing research analyst conflicts. The research reports are intended for distribution in the United States solely to major U.S. institutional investors as defined in rule 15a-6 under the United States securities exchange act of 1934, as amended and may not be furnished to any other person in the United States. Each major U.S. institutional investor that receives a copy of a Fondsfinans AS research report by its acceptance thereof represents and agrees that it shall not distribute or provide copies to any other person. Reports are prepared by Fondsfinans AS and distributed to major U.S. institutional investors under rule 15a-6(a)(2). These research reports are prepared by Fondsfinans AS and distributed in the United States by Fondsfinans Inc. Under rule 15a-6(a)(2). any U.S. Person receiving these reports that desires to effect transactions in any securities discussed within the report should call or write Fondsfinans Inc., a member of FINRA. 22

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