RESEARCH & ADVISORY.

Transcription

1 May Report 2013

2 RESEARCH & ADVISORY

3 MANAGER S COMMENTS Purchases: - Disposals: - For the ninth consecutive month, our portfolio delivers a positive return. It is our global bonds, money market and alternative investment funds that have shown a positive return as well as showing better results than the separate benchmarks the past month. Our best performing asset the past month have been the global bonds and worst performing has been our corporate bonds. Unfortunately our equity portfolio Long treasury rates started to climb steeply in the month of May. This comes as no surprise due to powerful quantitative easing. This month has shown correlation in accordance with our strategy, we are pleased to see negative correlations between different asset classes in our portfolio, contributing to a more stable return over time at minimum risk. It is also satisfying to see our Nordnet utmanarportfölj to perform better than benchmarks as well as our opponents with a 7,5 % gain this month. Gusten Danielsson CEO and Head of Research & Advisory RETURN & RISK Returns HCM Research & Advisory Asset Class Composite May 2013, % +0,29 +0,93 YTD ( ), % +3,87 +4,76 LTM ( ), % +4,72 +4,12 Months active Number of positive months Number of negative months 4 4 Performance and risk indicators Monthly standard deviation, % 0,96 1,05 Sharpe ratio 0,383 0,297 Treynor ratio 0,006 0,003 Jensen s alpha, % 0,16 - M 2 measure, % 0,09 - Beta 0,67 - Correlation with portfolio - 0,72

4 HOLDINGS Position Initial Value Market Value P/L W Assets & Asset classes Ccy Dir Qty P/Sh V, SEK P/Sh V, SEK Tot*, SEK Tot*, % 1M, % % Alternative Investments L ,03 0,28 0,04 15,27 Handelsbanken Råvarufond SEK L 114, , ,75-10,33-1,22 3,41 Brummer Multi Strategy SEK L 1 493, , , ,78 3,82 0,41 11,86 Corporate Bonds L ,96 10,62-0,52 10,86 Carnegie Corporate Bond SEK L 674,18 325, , ,22 11,86 0,48 5,49 Nordea US Corporate Bond Fund SEK L 2 528,31 86, , ,74 9,38-1,54 5,37 Global Bonds L ,51 11,42 0,92 16,68 Parvest Flexible Bond World C USD L 933,13 46, , ,08 2,99 1,39 6,97 Templeton Glbl Tot Ret A Acc $ USD L 2 255,37 25, , ,42 18,38 0,57 9,70 Money Market L ,94 2,49 0,24 20,89 Spiltan Räntefond Sverige SEK L 8 459,46 107, , ,94 2,49 0,24 20,89 Equities** L ,73 9,06-0,38 36,30 HCM Asset Management - L ,77 9,06-0,38 24,71 TOTAL ,47 5,99% 0, *Refers to total unrealized profits or losses of current holdings. ASSET ALLOCATION & WEIGHTS Asset class Min, % Actual, % Max, % ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS 15 15,27 25 CORPORATE BONDS 5 10,86 15 GLOBAL BONDS 10 16,68 20 MONEY MARKET 10 20,89 25 EQUITIES 10 24,71 30 TOTAL 100 CURREN CY EXPOSURE Currency Weight, % Hedge, % SEK 74,62 0 USD 21,77 0 NOK 1,58 0 EUR 2,03 0 GBP 0 0 CAD 0 0

5 PERFORMANCE Assets & Asset classes 1M, % Tot, % Alternative Investments 0,04 0,28 Benchmarks 1M, % Tot, % Handelsbanken Råvarufond -1,22-10,33 Rogers International Commodity Index 0,31-5,30 Dow Jones Credit Suisse Multi Strategy Brummer Multi Strategy 0,41 3,82 Hedge Fund Index 0,37 14,62 Corporate Bonds -0,52 10,62 Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index -0,67 3,38 Carnegie Corporate Bond 0,48 11,86 Nordea US Corporate Bond Fund -1,54 9,38 Global bonds 0,92 11,42 Parvest Flexible Bond World C 1,39 2,99 Templeton Glbl Total Return A Acc $ 0,57 18,38 Dow Jones CBOT Treasury Index Rebased -0,24 0,28 Money Market 0,24 2,49 OMRX Money Market Index 0,07 1,55 Spiltan Räntefond Sverige 0,24 2,49 Equities -0,38 65,24 OMXSPI 1,53 57,88 HCM Asset Management -0,38 65,24

6 Difference vs ACC Asset Class Composite HCM Research & Advisory LHS: Indexed values. Base = 100. RHS: HCM Research & Advisory difference versus ACC measured in index points. MONTHLY RETURNS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year ,35% 1,35% ,71% 1,85% -0,85% -0,89% 0,13% -0,63% 0,17% -0,87% 0,61% 0,21% 0,59% 0,75% 3,78% ,92% 1,38% 0,51% 0,71% 0,21% 3,87& Total 10,27%

7 BENCHMARKS Rogers International Commodity Index Rebased (RICI) RICI is a composite total return index that was created by commodity guru Jim Rogers in the late 1990s. The index is calculated from a basket of 38 commodities, tracking the value of futures contracts on thirteen exchanges. The index is denominated in USD, and is therefore rebased to SEK on a monthly basis. Dow Jones Credit Suisse Multi Strategy Hedge Fund Index The Dow Jones Credit Suisse AllHedge Multi-Strategy Index SM is a subset of the Dow Jones Credit Suisse AllHedge Index SM that measures the aggregate performance of multi-strategy funds. Through the diversification of capital, managers seek to deliver consistently positive returns regardless of the directional movement in equity, interest rate or currency markets.. Strategies adopted in a multistrategy fund may include, but are not limited to, convertible bond arbitrage, equity long/short, statistical arbitrage and merger arbitrage. Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index Rebased The Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index is an equally weighted basket of 96 recently issued investmentgrade corporate bonds with laddered maturities. The index intends to measure the return of readily tradable, high-grade U.S. corporate bonds. It is priced daily. The index is denominated in USD, and is therefore rebased to SEK on a monthly basis. Dow Jones CBOT Treasury Index Rebased Created by the Chicago Board of Trade and Dow Jones, the Dow Jones CBOT Treasury Index is a benchmark of U.S. default-free capital market returns. It provides investors in the bond markets with a tool that equity investors have long enjoyed: a real-time, transparent, broad-based indicator of market performance. Composed of 30-Year T-Bond, 10-Year T-Note and 5-Year T-Note futures contracts, the

8 Dow Jones CBOT Treasury Index is duration-weighted with each element making an equal contribution to performance. The index is denominated in USD, and is therefore rebased to SEK on a monthly basis. OMRX Money Market Index OMRX Money Market Index is an index related to treasury bills, nominal treasury bonds with benchmark status and a time to maturity of less than one year. Asset Class Composite Index The ACC-index is a tailor made index constructed solely to reflect the tactical asset allocation implemented by HCM management. It is calculated from all of the above named indices and the OMXSPI index. The indices are reweighted on a monthly basis by each asset class s weight in the HCM R&A portfolio as per previous month s closing balance.

9 ASSET MANAGEMENT

10 MANAGER S COMMENTS Purchases: Disposals: The return of the equity portfolio in May was not satisfying. The negative return shows a gap between our performance and comparable indices. The main reason our portfolio showed a negative results was due to extraordinary poor performance within a few equities. Our worst performers have been Betsson (-15 %), Vivendi (-12 %) and Micro Systemation (-9 %). Betsson s shares decline the most in value right after the AGM where information regarding redemption was announced. These are all fundamentally strong companies that most likely will outperform indices the next few months. We have also received the dividend from several equities the last couple of weeks, which is the main reason that Vivendi is down after paying out 1 dividend per share (5 %). Our best performers have been Volvo, Microsoft and Autoliv all gaining more than 7 % the past month. There are still funds waiting to be invested due to discussions about the alternative investments. Gusten Danielsson Head of Asset Management

11 RETURN & RISK Returns HCM ASSET MANAGEMENT OMXSPI March April, % -0,38 +1,53 YTD ( ), % +14,94 +10,83 LTM ( ), % +17,06 +24,14 Average yearly return since start, % +6,28 +5,69 Months active Number of positive months Number of negative months Performance and risk indicators Annual standard deviation, % 16,78 26,95 Sharpe ratio 0,28 0,211 Treynor ratio 0,06 0,057 Jensen s alpha, % 1,68 - M 2 measure, % 3,10 - Beta 0,693 - Correlation with portfolio - 0,856 ASSET ALLOCATION Asset Weight, % Equities 70,82 Cash 29,18 PERFORMERS Best Worst Volvo B Betsson B Microsoft Vivendi ORD Autoliv Micro Systemation B LARGE CAP EXPOSURE Asset Allowed Actual Total Nordic Large Cap holdings >50% 53,30% Autoliv Inc SDB 7,51% Fortum Corporation 7,89% Hennes & Mauritz B 7,93% Millicom Int. Cellular SDB 5,73% Orkla 6,14% SCA B 7,14% TeliaSonera 7,75% Volvo B 3,22% KEY WEIGHTS Category Asset Actual Allowed Largest holding Hennes & Mauritz B 7,93 <15% Smallest holding Dell Inc 3,00 >2,5% Largest non-nordic large cap holding CURRENCY EXPOSURE Vivendi Ord 5,06 <7,5% Currency Weight, % Hedge, % SEK 76,03 0 USD 14,04 0 NOK 4,35 0 EUR 5,59 0 GBP 0 0 CAD 0 0

12 HOLDINGS Position Initial Value Market Value P/L W Asset Ccy Dir Qty P/Sh V, SEK P/Sh V, SEK Tot*, SEK Tot*, % 1M, % % Autoliv Inc. SDB SEK L , , ,18 7,51 7,51 Avega SEK L , , ,07 3,85 3,85 Apple Inc USD L , , ,46 6,48 6,48 Betsson B SEK L , , ,88 4,62 4,62 Dell Inc USD L , , ,57 3,00 3,00 Fenix Outdoor B SEK L , , ,69 3,84 3,84 Fortum Corporation EUR L , , ,21 7,89 7,89 Hennes & Mauritz B SEK L , , ,25 7,93 7,93 Kopparbergs B SEK L , , ,61 5,01 5,01 Micro Systemation B SEK L , , ,76 3,86 3,86 Microsoft USD L , , ,50 6,03 6,03 Millicom Int. Cellular SDB USD L , , ,32 5,73 5,73 Nordnet B SEK L , , ,86 4,96 4,96 Orkla NOK L , , ,27 6,14 6,14 SCA B SEK L , , ,04 7,14 7,14 TeliaSonera SEK L , , ,15 7,75 7,75 Vivendi Ord USD L , , ,66 5,06 5,06 Volvo B SEK L , , ,51 3,22 3,22 TOTAL EQUITIES ,06-0, *Refers to total unrealized profits or losses of current holdings.

13 Difference vs OMXSPI SIX Net Return Index HCM Asset Management OMXSPI LHS: Indexed values. Base = 100. RHS: HCM Asset Management difference versus OMXSPI measured in index points. MONTHLY RETURNS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year ,96% 0,02% 5,89% 3,12% 1,26% -0,07% -0,36% 1,61% 1,97% 5,16% 22,33% ,59% 0,88% 4,84% -5,22% -3,35% -0,48% 1,23% 4,39% 2,96% 7,87% -1,02% 5,04% 14,62% ,35% -1,06% 4,81% 6,58% 1,72% -0,72% -4,62% -4,76% 1,54% -2,10% -3,19% -2,11% -0,34% ,54% 5,75% 1,02% 0,42% 2,94% -8,80% -4,09% 1,11% -6,85% -12,25% -3,86% 6,80% -26,67% ,96% -1,78% -1,61% 16,85% 3,14% -1,09% 5,53% 3,60% 1,12% 4,43% 0,47% 0,37% 30,16% ,72% -0,93% 4,63% -2,04% -2,70% -2,25% 2,06% -2,71% 2,98% -1,65% -0,09% 6,01% 6,69% ,33% -0,21% 0,18% 3,63% 2,32% -4,43% -3,39% -6,73% -2,82% 8,83% -1,49% -0,16% -4,51% ,30% 6,77% -1,78% -2,94% -4,89% 3,01% -0,53% -4,24% 0,43% -1,08% 1,50% 2,94% 5,79% ,67% 3,27% 1,67% 5,99% -0,38 14,94 Total 65,24%

14 BENCHMARKS OMX Stockholm All Share (OMXSPI) OMXSPI is a stock market index for shares listed on the Nasdaq OMX Stockholm Stock Exchange. All stocks on Nasdaq OMX Stockholm are eligible for inclusion. However, certain criteria such as liquidity may make a stock ineligible for index purposes. The index is a market capitalization weighted price index and is calculated in Swedish Krona. The base date for the OMXSPI is from December 1995, with a base value of SIX Net Return Index (SIXNRX) The SIX Net Return Index is a market capitalization weighted price index of all common shares listed on the Nasdaq OMX Stockholm Stock Exchange. SIXNRX takes dividends received by shareholders into account while extracting the burnt off tax. The tax burn-off is attributable to the 30 percent tax on dividend yields, which applies to all Swedish owners of shares in public companies, except for portfolio bond owners ( insurance wrappers ) and investment companies. The base date for the SIXNRX is from December 2007, with a base value of

15 DISCLAIMER This report is produced for information purposes only and the report shall not be used in any other way or for any other purpose than providing the reader with information about Handels Capital Management AB s asset management. This report, the statements and information in it, shall never be seen as a recommendation or investment advice and the reader shall, when taking investment or strategic decisions, never rely on the information or opinions expressed in the report. In no event will Handels Capital Management AB or any of their officers, directors or employees be liable to any person for any indirect, direct, special or consequential damage arising out of any use of the information contained in this report, including without limitations any lost profits.