# The effect of solar radiation variations on the climate of the Earth

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4 614 M.. BUDYKO Fig. 2. The dependence of horizontal heat transfer upon temperature difference. have shown (see Raschke, Moller, Bandeen, 1968), the albedo of the Earth-atmosphere system over areas with ice cover is greater than that over ice-free areas, due to which fact the change in area covered with ice increases the radiation variation effect on thermal regime. To estimate the radiation variation influence on the temperature of latitudinal zones, taking into account the indicated effect, one of numerical models of the average latitudinal temperature distribution should be used. Since in this case we are only interested in temperature distribution near the Earth's surface it is possible to use, instead of existing comparatively complicated models, a simple scheme based on the solution of equations (1) and (2) to which the relation should be added that characterizes the relationship between temperature distribution and horizontal heat transfer in the atmosphere and hydrosphere. Such a relation can be obtained by comparing the mean latitudinal values of term A calculated from formula (1) with quantities T - T,, where T is annual mean temperaure at a given latitude, T, is the planetary mean temperature. The result of the above comparison is shown in Fig. 2 from which it follows that the corresponding dependence can be expressed in the form of equation A =B(T - T,) (3) where B = kcal/cma month degree From formulae (l), (2) and (3), taking into consideration that for the Earth as a whole A =0, we obtain equations T- Q( 1 -a) -a + a,n + PT, B+B-B,n (4) &,( -a,)-a+a,n Tp = B-B,n (5) (where Q, and up are planetary values of radiation and albedo) by which the average latitudinal annual mean temperatures were computed for present climatic conditions of the northern hemisphere. The values of Q, Q, accepted in this calculation correspond to the value of solar constant 1.92 cal/cm2 min, the albedo, according to observational data available, at the latitudes of 0" to 60' is considered to be equal to 0.32, at the latitude of 70" to 0.50, at the latitude of 80" to n the calculation, the influence of deviations of cloudiness values from its mean planetary value equal to 0.50 on temperature is neglected. The possibility of such an assumption results from the conclusion established in the calculations made using the above formulae concerning a comparatively weak effect of cloudiness on the mean indices of thermal regimewithin a rather wide range of conditions. Such a conclusion drawn, taking into account the dependence of albedo on cloudiness, implies that Tellus XX (1969), 5

7 EFFECT OF SOLAR RADATON VARATONS 617 As is known, the effect of changes in the Earth's orbit eloments leads to appreciable redistribution of radiation amount coming to dif - ferent latitudes. Considering these changes and using the model of latitudinal temperature distribution suggested by him, Milankovich concluded that with the changes of orbit elements at temperate and high latitudes considerable changes in temperature occur that can result in glaciation. t should be mentioned that the model of temperature distribution suggested by Milankovich did not take into account horizontal heat transfer in the atmosphere and hydrosphere due to which it had to overestimate considerably the influence of changes in radiation in a given latitudinal zone on the thermal regime of the same zone. To verify the hypothesis of Milankovich, there were calculated, using the above-mentioned scheme, changes in thermal regime and glaciations for the case of considerable change of the Earth's orbit elements 22 thousand years ago which is usually associated with the last glaciation. The calculations made have shown that though the variations of orbit elements influence in ~1 definite way the thermal regime and glaciation, this influence is comparatively small and corresponds to possible displacement of the glaciation boundary by a little less than lo of latitude. t should be borne in mind that such a calculation allows for the change in annual radiation totals. According to Milankovich, the main influence on the glaciation is exerted by the variations of the summer radiation values that at latitudes 65-75' are 2 to 3 times as large as the variations of annual values. Emphasizing the necessity of further study of the problem on the effect of annual radiation variation on the glaciation, it should be noted that the above-obtained result casts some doubt on the hypothesis that the effect of the Earth's orbit changes is sufficient for the explanation of the quaternary glaciations. Now we shall proceed to the question of why the volcanic activity variations, that occured during the whole history of the Earth, did not result in the development of glaciations during hundreds of millions of years previous to the quaternary period. t has been established in geological investigations that in the pre-quaternary time the gradual rise of continents level took place. This fig^. 6. ce cover effect on temperature distribution. caused weakening of water circulation in the oceans between low and high latitudes. t was ascertained long ago (Budyko, 1948, et al.) that the heat transfer between the equator and the poles in the hydrosphere is a considerable portion of the corresponding transfer in the atmosphere, in connection with which the changes in water circulation in the oceans should influence essentially the thermal regime at high and temperature latitudes. To clear up this question, temperature distribution was calculated using the above-mentioned scheme for the case of absence of ice at high latitudes. The results of such calculations are shown in Fig. 6 where line To represents the present-day temperature distribution, and line T, temperature distribution with the absence of polar glaciations. n these calculations the albedo at high latitudes is accepted to be equal to the albedo of ice-free areas and the coefficient /? is considered to be equal to its value accepted above. As is seen from Fig. 6, the polar ice changing little the temperature at low latitudes considerably decreases the temperature at high latitudes. As a result, the mean difference in temperature between the pole and the equator decreases and the annual mean temperature in polar zone turns out to be equal to several degrees below zero. One can believe that with ice-free regime the meridional heat transfer in the polar ocean will increase as compared to present conditions since this ocean, that is now isolated from the Tellus XX (1969), 5

9 EFFECT OF SOLAR RADATON VARATONS 619 the changes in energy budget which are a small part of solar radiation income then it is probable that in the comparatively near future the possibility of glaciation expansion will be excluded and there will a.ppear the reverse one of polar ice melting on the land and oceans with all the changes in the Earth's climate that are associated with it. t should be mentioned that the conclusions stated in this paper on the effect of changes in solar radiation on climate have besn drawn as a result of using a strongly schematized model of the Earth's thermal regime. t is considered desirable to make similar calculations with the use of more general models. REFERENCES Atlas of the heat balance of the Earth. Ed. M.. Budyko, (n Russian), 1963, Moscow. Bowen, R Paleotemperature analysis. Amsterdam. Budyko, M The heat balance af the northern hemisphere. (n Russian), Proceedings 01 the Main Geophysical Observatory, 18. Budyko, M On the thermal zones of the Earth. (n Russian), Meteorology and Hydrology, No. 11. Budyko, M Polar ice and climate. (n Russian), Proceedings Ac. Sci. USSR, ser. geograph., No. 6. Budyko, M a. Some ways of climate modification. (n Russian), Meteorology and Hydrology, No. 2. Budyko, M Polar ice and climate. Proceedings of the Symposium on the Arctic heat budget and atmospheric circulation. Budyko, M On the causes of climate variations. Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska lnstitut Meddelanden, ser. B, No. 28. Donn, W. L. & Shaw, M The heat budgets of ice-free and ice-covered Arctic Ocean. Journ. of Geoph. Res., 71, No. 4. Fuchs, V. S. & Patterson, T. T The relation of volcanicity and orogeny to climate change. Geological Magazine, v. LXXXV, No. 6. Humphreys, N. J Physics of the air. Second edition. N.Y. Manabe, S. & Wetherald, R Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity. Journ. of Atmosph. Sciences, 24, No. 3. Milankovich, M Matematische Klimalehre und Astronomische Theorie der Klimaschwanungen. Rakipova, L. R Climate change when influencing the Arctic basin ice. (n Russian), Meteorology and Hydrology, No. 9. Rakipova, L. R The influence of the Arctic ice cover on the zonal distribution of atmospheric temperature. Proceeding8 of the Symposium on the Arctic heat budget and atmospheric circulation. Raschke, E., Moller, F. & Bandeen, W. R The radiation balance of Earth-atmosphere system.... Sveriges Metwrologiska och Hydrologiska lnatitut Meddelanden, ser. B, No. 28. Ronov, A. B To the post-cambrian geochemical history of the atmosphere and hydrosphere. (n Russian), Geochemistry, No. 5. Shifrin, K. S. & Minin,. N To the theory of non-horizontal visibility. (n Russian), Proceedings of the Main Geophysieal Observatory, 68. Shifrin, K. S. & Pyatovskaya. N. V Tables of slant visibility range and day sky brightness. (n Russian), Leningrad. C)pik, E. Y On the causes of pal~oclimatic variations and of ice ages in particular. Journ. of Glaciology, 2, No. 13., BJBHHME B3MEHEHMm COJHEYHOm PAAMAUBM HA HJMMAT Tellus XX (1969), 5

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