Agricultural prices and inflation measurement
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1 Gabriel Quirós Head of Division Macroeconomic Statistics European Central Bank Agricultural prices and inflation measurement Monitoring agriculture and rural planning with advanced methods Expo Milano 2015 Milano, 31 August 2015 This presentation should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB
2 Rubric Overview I. Central banks and inflation measurement II. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) III. Agricultural prices in the HICP: the food component IV. Agricultural prices in inflation forecasting: commodity price index V. Concluding comments Agricultural prices and inflation measurement 2
3 Rubric Central banks and inflation measurement Price stability objective and definition Article 127 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union: The primary objective of the ESCB shall be to maintain price stability ECB s Governing Council gives a definition of price stability: Price stability is defined as a year-on-year increase in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the euro area of below 2%. The Governing Council aims to maintain inflation rates at levels below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Agricultural prices and inflation measurement 3
4 Rubric The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) The concept of HICP HICP measures changes in prices over time for fixed consumption segments = set of consumer expenditure on products which serve a common purpose Weights reflect expenditure shares, up-dated each year HICP covers household final monetary consumption expenditure Prices collected are actual consumer prices, including taxes on products, taking account of sales prices, representing the whole period Non-food products not easily identifiable in the consumption basket: underestimation of agricultural price effects on HICP Agricultural prices and inflation measurement 4
5 Rubric The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) Main components of the consumption basket (COICOP*) 2015 *Classification Of Individual Consumption by Purpose Agricultural prices and inflation measurement 5
6 Rubric Agricultural prices in the HICP: the food component Importance of agriculture and food sector * Agriculture, fishing and forestry according to NACE Rev.2. Source: Eurostat, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Statistics Bureau of Japan, ECB calculations. Agricultural prices and inflation measurement 6 * Weights in the CPIs of JP and US are relative to the total CPI excluding owner-occupied housing
7 Rubric Agricultural prices in the HICP: the food component Aggregate Weight Volatility (std) All-item % 1.1 p.p. Processed food 12.20% 1.6 p.p. Unprocessed food 7.40% 1.8 p.p. Source: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Agricultural prices and inflation measurement 7
8 gen05 apr05 lug05 ott05 gen06 apr06 lug06 ott06 gen07 apr07 lug07 ott07 gen08 apr08 lug08 ott08 gen09 apr09 lug09 ott09 gen10 apr10 lug10 ott10 gen11 apr11 lug11 ott11 gen12 apr12 lug12 ott12 gen13 apr13 lug13 ott13 gen14 apr14 lug14 ott14 gen15 apr15 lug15 Rubric Agricultural prices in the HICP: the food component High volatility of agricultural prices 15 (annual percentage changes) Sub-index Weight Fruit 1.19% Meat 3.61% Bread and cereals 2.61% Vegetables 1.58% Coffee, tea and cocoa 0.46% Headline HICP Fruit Meat Bread and cereals Vegetables Coffee, tea and cocoa Source: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Agricultural prices and inflation measurement 8
9 Rubric Agricultural prices in the HICP: the food component Contributions of price changes of food components to annual growth rate of EA HICP High volatility in price changes Partially offset by small weights Source: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Agricultural prices and inflation measurement 9
10 gen-05 apr-05 lug-05 ott-05 gen-06 apr-06 lug-06 ott-06 gen-07 apr-07 lug-07 ott-07 gen-08 apr-08 lug-08 ott-08 gen-09 apr-09 lug-09 ott-09 gen-10 apr-10 lug-10 ott-10 gen-11 apr-11 lug-11 ott-11 gen-12 apr-12 lug-12 ott-12 gen-13 apr-13 lug-13 ott-13 gen-14 apr-14 lug-14 ott-14 gen-15 apr-15 lug-15 Rubric Agricultural prices in inflation forecasting: commodity price index Resort to more detail, closer monitoring: commodity indices 60 (annual percentage changes) Euro area farm gate price index International food commodity price index, use weighted International food commodity price index, import weighted HICP-Food incl. alcohol and tobacco Source: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Agricultural prices and inflation measurement 10
11 gen-05 ago-05 mar-06 gen05 ago05 mar06 ott06 mag07 dic07 lug08 feb09 set09 apr10 nov10 giu11 gen12 ago12 mar13 ott13 mag14 dic14 lug15 ott-06 mag-07 dic-07 lug-08 feb-09 set-09 apr-10 nov-10 giu-11 gen-12 ago-12 mar-13 ott-13 mag-14 dic-14 lug-15 Rubric Agricultural prices in inflation forecasting: commodity price index Commodity prices and HICP components: inflation perceptions 120 Euro area farm gate price index components (annual percentage changes) 15 HICP components (annual percentage changes) Euro area farm gate price index, cereal component Euro area farm gate price index, dairy component Euro area farm gate price index, meat component Euro area farm gate price index, oils and fats component Source: Eurostat, ECB calculations. Agricultural prices and inflation measurement 11 Bread and cereals Milk, cheese, eggs Meat Oils and fats
12 Rubric Concluding comments Agricultural output contribution to GDP relatively low but agricultural prices highly relevant for price developments However, available economic classification of agricultural consumption not sufficiently detailed to measure its influence on consumer prices...need to resort to commodity price indices, both euro area and international indices High volatility of agricultural prices, partly offset, filtered out by weight Need to work-out short-term price developments versus medium-term inflation:...short-term developments affect consumers inflation perceptions, not necessarily medium/long-term inflation outlook challenge for inflation forecasting, and its communication. Agricultural prices and inflation measurement 12
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